Right and things like John Frum and Ned Ludd show it is quite plausible Jesus didn't exist in any meaningful way.
As I have pointed out before there is this region between Carrier's minimal historical Jesus and minimal mythical Jesus where you have a flesh and blood Jesus (ie NOT "mythical") but also have "no historical Jesus in any pertinent sense".
I have presented several hypothetical Jesuses that fall into this region as well presented the Jesuses of other writers that also fall into this region:
1) In the time of Pontius Pilate some crazy ran into the Temple trashing the place and screaming "I am Jesus, King of the Jews" before some guard ran him through with a sword. Right place right time...and that is it. No preaching, no followers, no crucifixion, nothing but some nut doing the 1st century equivalent of suicide by cop.
2) Paul's teachings ala John Frum inspired others to take up the name "Jesus" and preach their spin on Paul's visions with one of them getting crucified by the Romans by his troubles whose teachings are time shifted so he is before Paul. (John Robertson actually came up with a variant of this in 1900 with this Jesus being inspired by Paul's writings rather then teachings)
3) You could have a Jesus who was born c 12 BCE in the small town of Cana, who preached a few words of Jewish wisdom to small crowds of no more than 10 people at a time, and died due to being run over by a chariot at the age of 50.
These three would not fit my idea of an HJ, because they aren't associated with John The Baptist or James The Just. Remember Paul didn't found the movement, he joined it when James was in charge, so I wouldn't count these three examples.
4) The idea expressed by Remsberg that there was a Jesus but his following wasn't an identifiable movement until Paul and later the writers of the Gospels got a hold of it also fails Carrier's criteria: "Jesus, if he existed, was a Jew, and his religion, with a few innovations, was Judaism. With his death, probably, his apotheosis began. During the first century the transformation was slow; but during the succeeding centuries rapid. The Judaic elements of his religion were, in time, nearly all eliminated, and the Pagan elements, one by one, were incorporated into the new faith."
That is pretty much the HJ as I understand it. I don't think he was called a god in his lifetime, just another Prophet of the Messianic school of second temple Judaism. Just like (if not identical with) the Teacher Of Righteousness.
5) G. A. Wells' Jesus Legend (1996) on with its mythical Paul Jesus + 1st century teacher who was not executed fails point 2 (they are not the same Jesus) so by Carrier's criteria is NOT a "historical Jesus in any pertinent sense" (This does explain Carrier's classification of this work as 'ahistoricitical')
I don't see why anyone would leave out the execution of Jesus. I understand that the whole "Trial by Pilate" and the big spectacle crucifixion were later embellishments to the story, but I see no reason to deny the idea that a Messiah claimant likely got nailed up by the Romans.
6) Dan Barker's "Other skeptics deny that the Jesus character portrayed in the New Testament existed, but that there could have been a first century personality after whom the exaggerated myth was pattered." (2006 Losing Faith in Faith pg 372) would also fail Carrier's criteria as Baker's first century personality need not be named "Jesus" or if he was his movement was not identifiable until much later.
We must remember Paul is writing some 15 to 20 years after he had his vision. The churches he is writing to would be ones he either founded or believers in some other 'christ' that he turned to his way of thinking.
Except that there is this guy called "James, the Lord's brother" who is bossing Peter, Paul and the members of the congregations around from his seat in Jerusalem.
Sure you can use the out of Jesus being in his time an obscure nobody that just happened to get noticed by somebody who was really aggressive in promoting them (or any movements they inspired) decades later to the point they got noticed by history but that argument is no less hypothetical then the above.
I think you are missing the point that the Jesus that Paul was promoting was at odds with the original Jesus movement. Paul's Jesus was for Gentiles, James' Jesus was for Jews. Paul was telling people to ignore the Jewish Law, James was telling people that to break the least law was the same as breaking them all... Paul taught that faith was everything, James taught that faith without works of the Law was useless.
Paul wasn't promoting the movement, he was hijacking it.
You could argue the same is true of Robin Hood, King Arthur, John Frum, Ned Ludd, and many others and in terms of plausibilities the argument is a step up form the sci-fi idea that Jesus was actually a spaceman and his miracles were super science but at the end of the day it just comes off as an attempt to salvage what is a very weak position.
However weak the evidence is for HJ, it isn't as weak as the evidence for Carrier's ethereal sub-lunar Jesus, which is non-existent.
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