Merged Ukraine erupts in riots and general strike.

[angrysoba]

Pray tell, where did you get the idea that the concern is Putler nuking Ukraine out of the blue?

McHrozni

From you...

Russia has threatened to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine on several occasions. Ukraine has no answer to such attacks. The only way we can certainly prevent such an attack from happening is by providing Ukraine means to retaliate if it does occur.

If nukes are used against an enemy that can adequately reply, you'd be better off if you didn't have any in the first place. The reasons are obvious: your country will suffer such extensive damage that conquered territory will never repay for it. Even if they are used against an enemy that has no adequate reply your international standing and future relations will still make the exercise expensive to boot. US is still getting bad press over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which are generally believed to have been instrumental in ending the bloodiest part of the bloodiest war in history of mankind. Imagine the bad press Russia would get, for ending a conflict it created, against a nation they consider brothers.

On the other hand, merely by making threats to which Ukraine can't reply, Putler applies constant and severe pressure to Ukraine. Even if Ukraine could militarily defeat the rebels with all the force of Russia behind them, the threat of nuclear strike from Russia would likely stay their hand. So they're in a corner: they know no matter what they do, they can't win. Russia can, and eventually will, if this goes on for long enough. The only way Ukraine can win is by removing that threat permanently.

This is what I meant by saying nukes are extremely useful, as long as they aren't used.

Chances are Putin is smart enough to know what I wrote above and is planning on just that. It's also entirely possible he is not, and would nuke Kiev, Lviv, Dnepropetrovsk and several other cities over a few thousand soldier deaths, and then commit to den Endlösung den Ukrainenfrage afterwards, come hell or high water. Understandably, Ukrainians would want to prevent that. I would prefer that didn't happen too.

<snip>

McHrozni

I don't know why you forgot you had posted that, although I have my suspicions.

Edited by Loss Leader: 

Edited in accordance with Rules 0/12

 

[McHrozni]

I don't know why you forgot you had posted that, although I have my suspicions.

Meh. Read it again. It doesn't say what you think it says.

I'm out of here.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

The word Fascist and Right-wing is being thrown around a lot these days.
It's not really hard to figure it out, like this guy has:

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/15/political-analyst-putins-russia-already-classic-fascist-state/

No one should be under any illusions, Portnikov says. “Russia is a classic fascist state,” one in which the majority of its residents support Putin’s variant of “the ideology of Hitlerism.

Should we be worried about fascist in Ukraine? Yeah, but only as something that will be a problem once the dust in Ukraine settles and they become an important and credible political movement for the next two generations.
Fascists in Russia, on the other hand, already hold three times bigger and ten times richer state, with no opposition to speak of, and a massive nuclear arsenal. We should worry about fascists in Ukraine if and when fascism in Russia is defeated, not before.

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

Chances are Putin is smart enough to know what I wrote above and is planning on just that. It's also entirely possible he is not, and would nuke Kiev, Lviv, Dnepropetrovsk and several other cities over a few thousand soldier deaths, and then commit to den Endlösung den Ukrainenfrage afterwards, come hell or high water. Understandably, Ukrainians would want to prevent that. I would prefer that didn't happen too.

Interesting choice of spelling. Kiev is the transcription of the Russian name, the Ukrainian name is transcribed Kyiv. Dnepropetrovsk is too; the Ukrainian name is, transcribed, Dnipropetrovsk. Only Lviv is the Ukrainian name; the Russian name is Lvov, and Merkel might still refer to it, in private conversation, as Lemberg. Are you a Russian mole?

(btw, you might also get your German articles straight. Both wrong; "den" is only accusative case (direct object) for masculine nouns, while both Endlösung and Frage are feminine, and the first is used in what would be a dative (indirect object) and the second as a genitive (possessive).)

 

[McHrozni]

Interesting choice of spelling. Kiev is the transcription of the Russian name, the Ukrainian name is transcribed Kyiv. Dnepropetrovsk is too; the Ukrainian name is, transcribed, Dnipropetrovsk. Only Lviv is the Ukrainian name; the Russian name is Lvov, and Merkel might still refer to it, in private conversation, as Lemberg. Are you a Russian mole?

Hehe. No. I just spent two nice weeks in Lviv years ago, and have grown accustomed to the spelling. Kyiv looks and sounds just weird, and most people don't know it stands for Kiev.
Dnipro/Dnepropetrovsk .. dunno. Russian name is more common, so I'm used of it. I find Russian name nicer, it's purely a personal asthetic opinion.

(btw, you might also get your German articles straight. Both wrong; "den" is only accusative case (direct object) for masculine nouns, while both Endlösung and Frage are feminine, and the first is used in what would be a dative (indirect object) and the second as a genitive (possessive).)

I usually compare German pronouns to extermination camps.

Which would be correct? Die and der, in that order?

McHrozni

 

[ddt]

Hehe. No. I just spent two nice weeks in Lviv years ago, and have grown accustomed to the spelling. Kyiv looks and sounds just weird, and most people don't know it stands for Kiev.
Dnipro/Dnepropetrovsk .. dunno. Russian name is more common, so I'm used of it. I find Russian name nicer, it's purely a personal asthetic opinion.

I agree on the weird looking, but then it's mainly what you're used to. It took me ages to get used to Beijing instead of Peking.

I usually compare German pronouns to extermination camps.

They're articles, actually, but I don't quite see the connection?

Which would be correct? Die and der, in that order?

McHrozni

Second certainly "der", yes, that's clearly a possessive. The first would depend on what you'd translate "commit to" with, as it would depend on the preposition used: "verpflichten zu" or "bekennen zu" would give a dative case (der), while "festlegen auf" would give an accusative case (die).

 

[McHrozni]

They're articles, actually, but I don't quite see the connection?

Articles! Sorry

It has to do with a somewhat sadistic German languague teacher from nearly 20 years ago that really disliked me as a special personal bonus. Don't ask

Second certainly "der", yes, that's clearly a possessive. The first would depend on what you'd translate "commit to" with, as it would depend on the preposition used: "verpflichten zu" or "bekennen zu" would give a dative case (der), while "festlegen auf" would give an accusative case (die).

'kay

I'll go with die next time around. Two different ones look nicer, I think, plus it's the ones Nazis used anyway.
Thanks for the help

McHrozni

 

[CapelDodger]

The catch with all high-tech gear is that Russia would get a chance to learn how to counter it, and would probably get their hands on some of it. Part of NATO's technological advantage comes from Russia's lack of access to NATO equipment. Giving it to Ukraine could change that to NATO's disadvantage.

A very important consideration.

All in all, quite a conundrum.

 

[CapelDodger]

It's looking like end-game in Dbaltseve :

Ukraine pro-Russia forces seize strategic Debaltseve railway hub despite truce
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ize-parts-of-debaltseve-railway-despite-truce

Pro-Russia forces seized parts of the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve in intense street fighting, ignoring a shaky ceasefire agreement, as a deadline for removing heavy weapons from the frontlines went unheeded.

The rest of the conflict zone appeared calm on Tuesday, three days after a halt in hostilities, negotiated by Russian, Ukrainian, French and German leaders, came into effect. But in Kiev, a senior official warned that “the hopes of the world for peace are being destroyed”.

Rebels who claimed a moral imperative to fight for the town closed in on government soldiers, trapped in bombed-out ruins and running out of food and supplies after more than a week under siege.

Separatist troops have been shelling any government forces that tried to move in or out from the main Ukrainian lines 10 miles away.

How anybody could imagine such an assault being possible without a direct line to an arms industry escapes me. It doesn't require satellite imagery or reports from the ground to reach that conclusion.

There are reported to be thousands of Ukrainian troops in the town who will presumably soon be prisoners, meaning thousands of witnesses to who's taking them prisoner - Donbass irregulars, Russian regulars, Russian irregulars or Russian "irregulars". I'm guessing the last of those. I'm hoping the poor bastards don't get paraded as a public spectacle, but I expect to be disappointed.

The ceasefire might take hold, imperfectly, when this is resolved. Alternatively, the focus will shift to Mariupol. I'm leaning very slightly towards the latter.

 

[crescent]

It's looking like end-game in Dbaltseve :

Ukraine pro-Russia forces seize strategic Debaltseve railway hub despite truce
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ize-parts-of-debaltseve-railway-despite-truce




How anybody could imagine such an assault being possible without a direct line to an arms industry escapes me. It doesn't require satellite imagery or reports from the ground to reach that conclusion.

Directed, quite openly, by Russian Lt-General Alexander Lentsov. He has been sent to "to find compromise solutions on de-escalating the tension and withdrawing the troops from the contact line"

 

[dudalb]

Just out of interest, how long do you think it would take to train a foreign language speaking, conscript army, experienced with using soviet "conscript" equipment and fire control systems to start using and integrating USA "professional" army equipment and US fire control systems.

Would that be more than ten years like the Iraqi army?


Germany has had a "little bit of experience" of Russian encirclements on this turf, and I think Germany is being pragmatic. The Ukrainian army is "spent". Ukraine could not police the ethnic Russian areas even if it won the war. There is "no end play scenario" that justifies continuing to fight.

In other words, let Putin get away with aggression and hope he will be satisfied with his loot. Appeasement. Worked Really great in the 1930's.

 

[angrysoba]

In other words, let Putin get away with aggression and hope he will be satisfied with his loot. Appeasement. Worked Really great in the 1930's.

I think the word is "defeat" rather than "appeasement".

Appeasement is when you avoid conflict by making concessions, whereas defeat is where you take to the battlefield and get your asses handed to you. The latter seems to be what has happened here, unfortunately.

 

[petrov2500]

Ukraine is very dumb for letting their troops get in the pocket, they should have abandoned the city.

 

[crescent]

I think the word is "defeat" rather than "appeasement".

I think the idea is that the Europeans are trying to appease Russia by not helping Ukraine. I don't think anyone thought Ukraine is trying to appease Russia.

Ukraine is very dumb for letting their troops get in the pocket, they should have abandoned the city.

I agree. Russia is acting very, very badly here, but Ukraine is not helping anything by making some very bad tactical decisions.

 

[CapelDodger]

In other words, let Putin get away with aggression and hope he will be satisfied with his loot. Appeasement. Worked Really great in the 1930's.

I don't think a slice of the Donbass counts as loot. It's been thoroughly looted by Ukrainian oligarchs for twenty-odd years and subsequently shelled quite extensively. It's a liability in material terms, and in the final analysis, what other terms matter?

Any political and diplomatic gains Putin might think he's achieved will prove to be illusory. When the situation freezes up, as it must, people will start to wonder what it's all been for, and nationalists will start calling him a race-traitor for not pressing on. That's the problem with nationalism : there's always somebody more nationalist than you. Compromise and pragmatism are treason.

Putin's gained a means of destabilising Ukraine whenever he wants, by turning things hot again, but Ukraine's an economic and political basket-case. I've never heard of a Ukrainian government which isn't prefixed by "pro-Western" or "pro-Russian" but is just Ukrainian. He's gained influence over something worse than worthless.

Since you reference the 30's, the Sudetenland had a majority German population, a very credible plebiscite in favour of joining Germany, was part of a country only twenty years old that had been carved out of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and was geographically unfavourable for the Royal Navy and the French Army. Letting that go in exchange for a guarantee for the rest of Czechoslovakia was a reasonable deal, given that self-determination was all the rage.

When the guarantee was broken Britain and France started re-arming furiously and said it would be war if Poland was attacked. It was, and it was. The rest is history, and it worked out all right in the end.

That was appeasement. How might it apply to the current situation?

If we take Crimea for the Sudetenland, we lose the credible plebiscite but there's plenty of anecdotal evidence that there's not much sense of Ukrainian identity there and never has been. Nobody's about to start another Crimean War so conceding the Crimea in exchange for something would be no loss. Crimea is a done deal anyway.

If and when Putin breaks the deal, a line is drawn and over that means war. If history's anything to go by, it'll work out all right in the end.

 

[CapelDodger]

Ukraine is very dumb for letting their troops get in the pocket, they should have abandoned the city.

From a strictly military point of view, yes. As a national symbol, even a failed but heroic defence can be priceless.

A Ukrainian nation sense is still a work-in-progress. It needs symbols.

The Siege of Sebastopol in the Crimean War has a huge symbolic significance in the Russian national narrative, even though it fell in the end.

 

[CapelDodger]

Directed, quite openly, by Russian Lt-General Alexander Lentsov. He has been sent to "to find compromise solutions on de-escalating the tension and withdrawing the troops from the contact line"

"Once the contact line coincides with what's been sketched out on my map."

Where that sketch leaves Mariupol is something we should know within a week or so. A much harder nut to crack, I think. Eyes have been on it since the start, unlike Dbaltseve. Very tempting, though.

 

[Childlike Empress]

The Ukrainian Narrative Is Fast Unraveling

 

[petrov2500]

From a strictly military point of view, yes. As a national symbol, even a failed but heroic defence can be priceless.

A Ukrainian nation sense is still a work-in-progress. It needs symbols.

The Siege of Sebastopol in the Crimean War has a huge symbolic significance in the Russian national narrative, even though it fell in the end.

I don't think the Ukrainian people will be happy to hear their government let their soldiers die. There is already resistance to troop mobilization in the country.

 

[CapelDodger]

I don't think the Ukrainian people will be happy to hear their government let their soldiers die. There is already resistance to troop mobilization in the country.

The government won't order their troops to die fighting; hopefully they'll tell them to lay down their arms with honour, but they will surrender anyway when their situaton is hopeless.

See how this defence plays in six months time. Properly exploited it could be a important symbol of an emerging Ukrainian national sense. If the prisoners are dishonoured, by public parade it will become an even more potent symbo and rallying point.

National identities are usually created in opposition to some other national identity. This war could be the making of Ukraine - and I'm not the only person to be thinking that. I'm just the one with the least influence on events.