Shi'ite coup in Yemen

bit_pattern

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bit_pattern
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I'm surprised this hasn't popped up on the radar here yet. As far as I understand, A Shi'ite tribal group in Yemen have effectively seized control of the Yemenese government and forced the resignation of the president and his cabinet. In the south, the Sunni powerbase is reportedly refusing to take orders from the new power structure and are talking about seceding. Apparently having a Shi'ite pocket in that region has been a goal of Iran, who seem implicated in the power grab.

So what are the consequences? What dynamics are really at play?
 
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Yemen was a failed state before this happened. What do you call a failed state that has failed further? Failed2 state?

McHrozni
 
I'm no expert but I follow one or two on twitter, and from that I gather that it wasn't really a coup. When they had their Arab Spring, the (unbloody) "solution" was to replace one moustache with another, and the regime stayed the same incompetent and highly corrupt US puppet. This Houthi group seems to originate in Shi'a tribes but formed to something bigger with relatively broad support at least in the North. Their militias took over the capital Sana'a months ago already. But not the regime; instead they made demands about developing a new federal constitution and following elections. This seems to have made slow progress and they resorted to violence, including arrests/hostage-taking of a presidential adviser. This led to this "agreement" from Wednesday and the adviser was released as agreed. And now the regime resigned, which was not part of the agreement, apparently to the surprise of the Houthis.
 
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bit_pattern said:
I'm surprised this hasn't popped up on the radar here yet. As far as I understand, A Shi'ite tribal group in Yemen have effectively seized control of the Yemenese government and forced the resignation of the president and his cabinet. In the south, the Sunni powerbase is reportedly refusing to take orders from the new power structure and are talking about seceding. Apparently having a Shi'ite pocket in that region has been a goal of Iran, who seem implicated in the power grab.

So what are the consequences? What dynamics are really at play?
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There have been a number of wars and other problems in Yemen for a while. However, I work with a Yemeni citizen tomorrow so maybe, if I ask tactfully, he will tell me what the deal is.
 
Childlike Empress said:
I'm no expert but I follow one or two on twitter, and from that I gather that it wasn't really a coup. When they had their Arab Spring, the (unbloody) "solution" was to replace one moustache with another, and the regime stayed the same incompetent and highly corrupt US puppet. This Houthi group seems to originate in Shi'a tribes but formed to something bigger with relatively broad support at least in the North. Their militias took over the capital Sana'a months ago already. But not the regime; instead they made demands about developing a new federal constitution and following elections. This seems to have made slow progress and they resorted to violence, including arrests/hostage-taking of a presidential adviser. This led to this "agreement" from Wednesday and the adviser was released as agreed. And now the regime resigned, which was not part of the agreement, apparently to the surprise of the Houthis.
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I read that the rebels had taken over the palace and were now 'protecting' it.

haven't really followed this, though.
If it is really Iran widening it's sphere of influence, it is really interesting. maybe this will end up with a Hezbollah-like situation.
 
Eddie Dane said:
If it is really Iran widening it's sphere of influence, it is really interesting. maybe this will end up with a Hezbollah-like situation.
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That's the usual dumb orientalist pap they present in "the West". "It's all and always about Shia vs. Sunni, and I know because my wife is an alawite." ;)
 
What's Orientalist about it?

Iran projects power, the Saudis project power.

The funny thing is just that the Sunni proxies are so utterly odious that the Shia proxies look rather civilised by comparison. I never thought I'd think Assad the better option, for instance.
 
Childlike Empress said:
That's the usual dumb orientalist pap they present in "the West". "It's all and always about Shia vs. Sunni, and I know because my wife is an alawite." ;)
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It's hardly "dumb orientalist pap", though at its root it is a bit more complex than just a "Shia vs. Sunni" religious struggle. It's basically an "Iranian government vs. Saudi government" struggle, it's just often hard these days to separate "Shia vs. Sunni" from "Iranian government vs. Saudi government" when it comes to these kinds of geopolitical conflicts in the region. The Houthi are explicitly a Zaydi, or Fiver, Shia movement, which is doctrinally more like Sunni Islam than it is to the Twelver Shia Islam of Iran (Zaydi fiqh is closer to the Sunni Shafi'i madh'hab that predominates in Yemen than to the Shia Twelver Ja'fari madh'hab of Iran), and their initial insurgency was against the Yemeni government of Ali Abdullah Saleh (also a Zaydite).

What's happened is an internal struggle that was not really a sectarian fight has become a proxy war for Iran vs. Saudi Arabia, and since their rivaly is just as religious as it is political, that also means it's essentially a Shia vs. Sunni fight. The Saudis have been backing extremist Sunni elements within Yemen as well as the current Sunni government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, with the Iranians supporting the Houthi movement (who are Zaydis, but still Shias) - the larger conflict between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is overwhelming the smaller complicating factors at play in Yemen.
 
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A'isha said:
It's hardly "dumb orientalist pap", though at its root it is a bit more complex than just a "Shia vs. Sunni" religious struggle. It's basically an "Iranian government vs. Saudi government" struggle, it's just often hard these days to separate "Shia vs. Sunni" from "Iranian government vs. Saudi government" when it comes to these kinds of geopolitical conflicts in the region. The Houthi are explicitly a Zaydi, or Fiver, Shia movement, which is doctrinally more like Sunni Islam than it is to the Twelver Shia Islam of Iran (Zaydi fiqh is closer to the Sunni Shafi'i madh'hab that predominates in Yemen than to the Shia Twelver Ja'fari madh'hab of Iran), and their initial insurgency was against the Yemeni government of Ali Abdullah Saleh (also a Zaydite).

What's happened is an internal struggle that was not really a sectarian fight has become a proxy war for Iran vs. Saudi Arabia, and since their rivaly is just as religious as it is political, that also means it's essentially a Shia vs. Sunni fight. The Saudis have been backing extremist Sunni elements within Yemen as well as the current Sunni government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, with the Iranians supporting the Houthi movement (who are Zaydis, but still Shias) - the larger conflict between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia is overwhelming the smaller complicating factors at play in Yemen.
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Very informative post.

Thank you.
 
A'isha said:
It's hardly "dumb orientalist pap", though at its root it is a bit more complex than just a "Shia vs. Sunni" religious struggle.
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Dumb orientalist pap is exactly what it is, because the real situation isn't "a bit" more complex, but vastly so, contradicting what you can and Eddie Dane does read in "Western" papers.
 
Childlike Empress said:
Dumb orientalist pap is exactly what it is, because the real situation isn't "a bit" more complex, but vastly so, contradicting what you can and Eddie Dane does read in "Western" papers.
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Even one of Russia Today's favorite pet loons described the conflict in Yemen as "a civil war [that] pits the Saudi-backed central government against the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels" (though, natch, he blames the CIA as being behind it all, tricking the Saudis and Iranians into fighting each other in Yemen to weaken them both).
 
A'isha said:
Even one of Russia Today's favorite pet loons described the conflict in Yemen as "a civil war [that] pits the Saudi-backed central government against the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels" (though, natch, he blames the CIA as being behind it all, tricking the Saudis and Iranians into fighting each other in Yemen to weaken them both).
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You taking part in "CE doesn't condemn RT as a source and sometimes even enjoys and recommends it" doesn't change the facts. I don't endorse every person showing up on RT. I have a quite detailed opinion on Tarpley which is not all praise but I'm afraid the details would be lost on you, at least at this point.
 
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Here's what the state dep't and the Kuwaiti interior ministry were discussing about the Houthis back in 2010, per wikileaks.

Summary: Interior Minister Jaber Al-Khaled Al
Sabah told Ambassador February 16 that he is deeply concerned
about Iranian actions, particularly in Yemen with the
Houthis. A security hard-liner whose views do not always
reflect those of the rest of the GoK, Shaykh Jaber suggested
Iran is intent upon exporting its revolution and can only be
deterred by force from achieving its nuclear ambitions; he
characterized Iran as the "beating heart" of Islamic
extremism, adding that even Palestinians now aspire to be
Shi'a because they have bought Iranian "stories" about Shi'a
being more prepared to "fight to the end" and stand up to
Israel. Now Iran is trying to infiltrate Egypt, exploiting
poverty there.

...

In Yemen, the
Houthis have shown remarkable resilience - where is their
power coming from? Yemeni extremists are making money from
the drug trade, moving narcotics into Saudi Arabia. The GoK
has been able to block some of the flow of these drugs from
Saudi into Kuwait, but remains very concerned about this.
Iran is involved, clearly, as a producer of drugs and a
facilitator of transit along the
Afghanistan-Iran-Somalia-Yemen pipeline.
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Childlike Empress said:
Yeah, but unfounded.
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Speaking of unfounded, apart from declaring the Shiia/Sunni thing "orientalist pap" and dismissing A'isha's excellent analysis out of hand, you've done absolutely nothing to enunciate and alternative analysis - I guess it's just all too complex for we mere sheeple to comprehend, eh? :rolleyes:
 
bit_pattern said:
Speaking of unfounded, apart from declaring the Shiia/Sunni thing "orientalist pap" and dismissing A'isha's excellent analysis out of hand, you've done absolutely nothing to enunciate and alternative analysis - I guess it's just all too complex for we mere sheeple to comprehend, eh? :rolleyes:
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Why are you looking at me when you say that?
 
bit_pattern said:
Speaking of unfounded, apart from declaring the Shiia/Sunni thing "orientalist pap" and dismissing A'isha's excellent analysis out of hand, you've done absolutely nothing to enunciate and alternative analysis - I guess it's just all too complex for we mere sheeple to comprehend, eh? :rolleyes:
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Apparently you missed my first post. And the fact that I didn't dimiss A'isha's analysis, but her dimissal of my dismissal of the dumb orientalist pap. :D
 
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