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Gorbachev warns of risk of war over Ukraine

TheRealnz

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346
Reuters) - Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned that tensions between Russia and European powers over the Ukraine crisis could result in a major conflict or even nuclear war, in an interview to appear in a German news magazine on Saturday."A war of this kind would unavoidably lead to a nuclear war," the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize winner told Der Spiegel news magazine, according to excerpts released on Friday.
"We won't survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation," added Gorbachev, 83. "This is not something I'm saying thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned."
Tensions between Russia and Western powers rose after pro-Russian separatists took control of large parts of eastern Ukraine and Russia annexed Crimea in early 2014.
The United States, NATO and the European Union accuse Russia of sending troops and weapons to support the separatist uprising, and have imposed sanctions on Moscow.
Russia denies providing the rebels with military support and fends off Western criticism of its annexation of Crimea, saying the Crimean people voted for it in a referendum.
Gorbachev, who is widely admired in Germany for his role in opening the Berlin Wall and steps that led to Germany's reunification in 1990, warned against Western intervention in the Ukraine crisis.
"The new Germany wants to intervene everywhere," he said in the interview. "In Germany evidently there are a lot of people who want to help create a new division in Europe."
The elder statesman, whose "perestroika" (restructuring) policy helped end the Cold War, has previously warned of a new cold war and potentially dire consequences if tensions were not reduced over the Ukraine crisis.
The diplomatic standoff over Ukraine is the worst between Moscow and the West since the Cold war ended more than two decades ago.
(Reporting by Erik Kirschbaum; Editing by Sam Wilkin)
 
My Russian is a bit rusty, but this is a rough translation: I will say anything to avoid Putin putting me through a cangoroo court over breakup of the USSR.

McHrozni
 
This follows the interview he had with RT not long ago where he made vague and nonspecific calls for "perestroika" in the US. I'm now feeling he's just a crusty old cold warrior who doesn't realize how far the rest of the world has moved on.

If the world is at risk for a nuclear war it won't be the US and Russia. Even Putin knows better than that.
 
A powerless, elderly ex Russian premeir makes faces at the West. I am so scared.
And I see that one of Putin's Number One Fans is posting here..again.
 
If the world is at risk for a nuclear war it won't be the US and Russia. Even Putin knows better than that.

Here's a question: How far can Putin go, before the US becomes the first to use nuclear weapons?

Is there anything he wants, that might lie within that boundary?

I think the risk of nuclear war hinges on that, and on how well Putin is able to judge the limit.
 
Here's a question: How far can Putin go, before the US becomes the first to use nuclear weapons?

Is there anything he wants, that might lie within that boundary?

I think the risk of nuclear war hinges on that, and on how well Putin is able to judge the limit.

IMO the U.S. can do a lot of economic damage without having to resort to nuclear weapons and that Putin can be brought to heel without having to threaten, let alone resort to nuclear weapons. During the early part of the crisis in Ukraine there were calls from both sides of the Atlantic for the West in general, and the U.S. in particular to intervene militarily. I think (but have no evidence to support the notion) that the military advised the administration that military involvement would be ill-judged and to wage economic war instead.

It seems to have been effective. Instead of a hot civil war, with the sides being funded and supported by the U.S. and Russia we have the situation where economic woes have caused Russia to downgrade its involvement. Yes, the situation isn't back to where it ought to be (a unified Ukraine running its own affairs) but then again there would be considerable internal tensions in Ukraine in any case.
 
To me the whole covert invasion of Ukraine has highlighted just how much some people on the far left are unwilling to adapt to changes in the current world socio political reality, they seem to cling to the comfort blanket that everything the west does is wrong and everything that anyone in the East does is right and justifiable.

To me it is clear that what is happening in the Ukraine is a land and power grab and also the old tactic of a bankrupt and highly corrupt regieme to deflect attention from its activities.
 
IMO the U.S. can do a lot of economic damage without having to resort to nuclear weapons and that Putin can be brought to heel without having to threaten, let alone resort to nuclear weapons.
Why would Putin have to threaten to use nuclear weapons?

He could conceivably just keep taking and taking to whatever level he's comfortable with sanctions, etc., without ever once mentioning nukes. Just keep encroaching on what he wants up to the point where the US is the first to put nuclear war on the table.

Then accuse the US of being warmongers, nuke-happy, etc., and judge whether or not the US is serious enough for him to stop whatever it is he's doing.

My thinking is that Putin could probably get away with taking quite a lot, before the US grew enough courage to threaten to use nukes against him. As long as he doesn't go Full Retard right off the mark, and trigger an immediate MAD scenario, the risk of the US starting a nuclear war over Russian aggression is probably pretty slim.

Put it another way: There are plenty of good deterrents against incremental Russian aggression, but the risk of nuclear war with the US is probably not one of them.
 
Why would did Putin have to threaten to use nuclear weapons?

FTFY.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/31/putin-threatens-nuclear-war-over-ukraine.html
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2014/12/16/Putin-Threatens-Move-Nukes-Crimea-Ruble-Tumbles
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-nuclear-idUSKCN0I42FW20141015

Apparently his position is so weak he has to resort to it. There is no other plausible explanation. Either that or he already went Full Retard some time ago, and we're just seeing the effects now, that's also plausible.

McHrozni
 
Why would Putin have to threaten to use nuclear weapons?

Did I ever claim that he would ?

What I said was:

IMO the U.S. can do a lot of economic damage without having to resort to nuclear weapons and that Putin can be brought to heel without having to threaten, let alone resort to nuclear weapons

I merely referring to the actions the US would take
 
How far could he encroach? As soon as one of his soldiers puts a toe over the border in to a NATO country the shooting will start.
 
How far could he encroach? As soon as one of his soldiers puts a toe over the border in to a NATO country the shooting will start.

I certainly hope it won't come to that. But by this standard he could "encroach" all the way to Dniester, which would be Bad.

McHrozni
 
The US is leaning hard on Europe to take care of their own business -- European state lines are no longer supposed to be redrawn with violence.

Is this another Quarter Quell for the US to deal with?
 
The US is leaning hard on Europe to take care of their own business

Well, yes and no. Yes the United States wants Europe to sort things out but they want the result to be acceptable to the United States - which isn't to single out the United States, I'm sure that most countries, companies or people would like the result they want in any given situation, without having to get deeply involved.
 
This follows the interview he had with RT not long ago where he made vague and nonspecific calls for "perestroika" in the US. I'm now feeling he's just a crusty old cold warrior who doesn't realize how far the rest of the world has moved on.

If the world is at risk for a nuclear war it won't be the US and Russia. Even Putin knows better than that.

I think you're wrong about that. Very, very wrong.


I don't think either sides wants to have a nuclear war, but Putin's tactic of constantly invading airspace and territorial waters with military craft creates high numbers of very small probabilities of accidently starting a war.

These are small probabilities. Maybe 0.3%, maybe even 0.05%, but they keep happening again, and again, and again.

Add these to the high number of nuclear false alarms and accidents on both sides, an you have a much scarier picture. False Alarms in the Nuclear Age

The only reason that the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident didn't cause a nuclear war is because Russia decided not to follow their military protocol. Based on all of their protocols, they should have launched a full nuclear strike on the US; which in turn would have required a full nuclear response from the US. The probability that they wouldn't have decided to directly disobey they strict military protocol in that cause would probably have been at least 10%.


Add up al of those incidents, and up all of the false alarms, add up all of the extremely close nuclear accidents all across the globe, and than add up the fact that we keep rolling the dice again, and again, and again, and you have a much higher probability that eventually there will be an accidental nuclear exchange.

An accidental nuclear exchange with mutually assured destruction.

I recently finished watching the movie Countdown to Zero, and highly suggest everyone view it. It's not a blockbuster movie, but it is very factually interesting. You can watch it for free if you have Netflix Streaming, or it also free to stream from the movie's site here:

http://countdowntozerofilm.com/watch
 
It's been nice corresponding with you all.
Just wanted to get that in before this inevitable nuclear war. :rolleyes:
 
Meaning after the nuclear war there won't be an internet, not even for the Brotherhood of Steel!
 

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