Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Fudbucker said:
Fantastical scenarios are still possible. Slow's claim is that there is NO scenario (fantastical or otherwise) that would result in a two-headed coin landing tails.

I totally agree with you that if I use "pure fantasy" I can prove my point.
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The landing coin in your scenario is a two-tailed coin, not a two-headed coin.

Let me help you a bit:
Daylightstar said:
Unfortunately you have not adequately shown how, without use of pure fantasy. using reality.
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Is that clearer for you?
 
Fudbucker said:
Well, I agreed, but I thought these problems would show up.

Still, I doubt we have many professional philosophers posting in the philosophy forum, so the outcome probably would have been the same.
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For most professional philosophers the all consuming question is, "Do you want fries with that?".
 
Fudbucker said:
This is true, however, you're still not getting it. The claim isn't that the two-tailed coin IS a two-headed coin. The claim is that the two-tailed coin WAS a two-tailed coin, prior to the toss. Just like the married man ISN'T a bachelor when he lands, but he WAS a bachelor before he landed.

If a bachelor can land a married man, then a two-headed coin can land tails. There's no way around it. It is impossible for a bachelor to BE a married man, it's not impossible for a bachelor to LAND a married man. It is impossible for a two-headed coin to BE a two-tailed coin. It is not impossible for a two-headed coin to LAND a two-tailed coin.

For any X, before X lands, X can turn into Y.
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Since the two tailed coin is no longer a two tailed coin the statement "a two tailed coin can land heads" is wrong.
 
Fudbucker said:
Fantastical scenarios are still possible. Slow's claim is that there is NO scenario (fantastical or otherwise) that would result in a two-headed coin landing tails.

I totally agree with you that if I use "pure fantasy" I can prove my point.
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Fud, you really, really, really need to pay attention...

If a coin lands, showing a 'tails", (and this is the part where you keep getting confused, Fud) that coin does not have two "heads". It is not, in fact, a "two-headed coin".

Q: What is a "two-headed coin"?
A: A coin with to "heads".

Q: If a coin has one "tails" showing, what is the maximum numbver of heads it can, physically, have?
A: One, at most.

Q: If a coin has, at most, one "heads", is it a "two-headed coin"?
A: No.
 
tsig said:
Since the two tailed coin is no longer a two tailed coin the statement "a two tailed coin can land heads" is wrong.
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That is simple for rational people to understand, but Fudbucker doesn't want it to be that way.

E.T.A.: You can even state the conundrum backwards from the original and still get it right :D
 
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Fudbucker said:
... Is ESP possible? Yes...
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oops, a faulty OP...

ESP not possible.

Life in the universe... possible. Guess what a great example is. us

ESP - no (no examples, just BS)

Life - possible, ESP probability remains at zero, life is possible.
 
Fudbucker said:
Physically impossible is different than logically impossible.

But anyway, we keep going round and round. A few other people have pointed out you're wrong (Aridas, I think).
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Praps you'd be so kind as to quote the post where you think that happened...

A coin-that-has-two-heads cannot physically land showing a "tails".

A coin that lands, showing a tails, cannot logically be said to be a "coin-with-two-heads".

A "Two-headed coin", logically, cannot physically have a "tails" and still be logically called a physical "coin-with-two-heads".

Write out the syllogism, Fud. My 8th graders could--can you?
 
Slowvehicle said:
Nor has it been shown to be physically possible for a "two-headed coin" to land with a "tails" showing.

If a "tails" is showing, the coin is not a "coin-with-two-heads"; nor can it be.
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When the coin that lands is not the same as the one that was flipped it seems odd to claim they're the same.

Guess I'll have to give up trying to flip my penny into a bowl of hot chicken soup and grab the can opener.:(
 
Aridas said:
You may as well agree that the chances of an arbitrary person greeting their parents during the next day is equal to the chances of ESP and alien life existing, then.
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Not ESP, because that may be shown to be improbable, but alien life, yes.

Since the probability of alien life existing can't be determined, it's simply a "question mark" (variable). It is equal to any logically possible claim (e.g., probability of meeting your parents). This follows from the fact that the probability of alien life cannot be considered greater than any claim or less than any claim unless you assign arbitrary values to the probability of alien life existing. Since we can't just assign arbitrary values to probabilities, there's only one possibility left: the probability is equal, until shown to be otherwise.

There's a further possibility that a claim for which a probability value can't be determined can't be compared in any way to any other claim.

That would be a strange result, to have a logically coherent claim (alien life exists) that can't be compared to anything else. Maybe you want to argue for that possibility, because there's only three ways two claims can be considered: if one is greater than the other, if one is less than the other, or if they're both equal. If a claim can't be proven to be greater or less than another claim, it has to be equal.


After all, based on those standards, there are too many unknowns, such as whether the person's parents are able to be contacted in the first place. You may as well also concede that the probability, based on your arguments, that advanced alien life or some kind of god will make themselves known to people on Earth during the next day is between 0 and 1, therefore, it is also equally likely to the chances that a person will greet their parents, that ESP exists, and that advanced alien life exists.
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Not ESP, but yes, it forces me to claim that the probability of alien life existing is equal to the probability of a god like Zeus coming down from some mountain to say hi to us. I can't say the probability of alien life is higher than a god appearing because there might not be any alien life at all. If that's the case, the god has a greater chance of appearing.

I can't say the probability of alien life existing is lower than a god appearing either. If there's any alien life in the universe, then obviously, the odds are higher than a god appearing.

If I can't say whether it's higher or lower, what else is there, other than equal? Is the answer to the OP "Is ESP More Probable Than Alien Life" simply "unknowable at this time"? I don't think that would sit well with a lot of people here.
 
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Daylightstar said:
The landing coin in your scenario is a two-tailed coin, not a two-headed coin.

Let me help you a bit:


Is that clearer for you?
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Or, of course, it is logically possible that it is, physically, a "one-headed, one-tailed coin"

It is not, however, logically possible that a coin, physically showing a "tails", is a "two-headed coin".

I agree with the substance of your clarification.
 
Daylightstar said:
Perhaps in Possible land one can simply redefine their possibilities to suit.
It's quite possible since everything is possible, even if they are logically impossible or physically impossible.
They are still technically possible :D
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Ahh...I get it,

technically possible = abracadabra.
 
Fudbucker said:
... it forces me to claim that the probability of alien life existing is equal to the probability of a god like Zeus coming down from some mountain to say hi to us. I can't say the probability of alien life is higher than a god appearing because there might not be any alien life at all. If that's the case, the god has a greater chance of appearing.
...
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Ah, so now you're changing your claim to something else. Now gods and zeus suddenly enter the scenario.
 
Slowvehicle said:
Or, of course, it is logically possible that it is, physically, a "one-headed, one-tailed coin"

It is not, however, logically possible that a coin, physically showing a "tails", is a "two-headed coin".

I agree with the substance of your clarification.
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You are quite correct, thank you for the kind correction.
Fudbuckers original scenario is as follows:
Fudbucker said:
...
ETA: Is it possible to get tails with a two-headed coin? Yes, ...
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1 tail-1 head is clearly possible in this scenario.

Except of course that the probability of a coin landing tails would decrease but Fudbucker didn't take such into account with his superior connfidence.
 
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