Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Slowvehicle said:
Fud, if the coin is, in fact, "two-headed", it cannot, in fact, land on tails. If the coin, in fact, lands on tails, it is not, in fact, "two-headed".
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It's impossible for the coin to change when you flip it?

Fud, is it possible that I am her most serene and august imperial majesty, queen Winnifred I of Koozbain?
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I don't know what "Koozbain" means. It's like asking if any emeralds are "grue". If "grue" means entirely blue and entirely red at the same time, then it's not possible. If "grue" means "green", then yes.
 
Fudbucker said:
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I don't know what "Koozbain" means. It's like asking if any emeralds are "grue". If "grue" means entirely blue and entirely red at the same time, then it's not possible. If "grue" means "green", then yes.
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You don't know what Koozbain means but you know what it's like?
 
Daylightstar said:
Could the coin change into a chicken?
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The coin could change into anything unless it's stipulated that it can't change.

That is the problem Slow is having. Scenarios are always temporal, and whatever's stipulated to be true at the beginning of the scenario cannot be assumed to be true while the scenario plays out.

A two-headed coin can change in mid-toss. In order for that to be impossible, an additional premise has to be included: the coin is two-headed AND can't change.
 
Daylightstar said:
Meh, that's logically impossible, physically impossible or just impossible :D
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...
Son, you are now going out into the wide, wide, world to make your own way, and it is a very good thing to do, as there are no more opportunities for you in this burg. I am only sorry that I am not able to bankroll you to a very large start, but not having any potatoes to give you, I am now going to stake you to some very valuable advice, which I personally collect in my years of experience around and about, and I hope and trust you will always bear this advice in mind. "Son, no matter how far you travel, or how smart you get always remember this: Some day, somewhere, a guy is going to come to you and show you a nice brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is never broken, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that the jack of spades will jump out of this deck and squirt cider in your ear. But son, do not bet him, for as sure as you do you are going to get an ear full of cider." --Sky Masterson, The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown by Damon Runyon.
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Fudbucker said:
Could you explain how exactly?

Since you disagree with my conclusion, can you do a Bayesian analysis of the odds of the existence of alien life? Show your work, please.
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By making an invalid distinction between life on Earth and life elsewhere in the universe.
This was already explained to you several times, but you have a strong need to define away prior probability.

All the analysis required for your op conundrum has already been shown and explained to you.
This was already pointed out to you.
 
ehcks said:
If the coin changes when flipped, then it is not a two-headed coin so the original hypothetical no longer applies.
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The answer is in your tenses:

X IS not a two-headed coin.
X WAS a two-headed coin.

Those aren't contradictory claims. Consider:

X IS not in New York.
X WAS in New York.
 
Daylightstar said:
By making an invalid distinction between life on Earth and life elsewhere in the universe.
This was already explained to you several times, but you have a strong need to define away prior probability.

All the analysis required for your op conundrum has already been shown and explained to you.
This was already pointed out to you.
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Daylight, since you won't provide a probability analysis of your own, and can't do anything but repeat the same assertion, I'm not going to waste time on you.
 
Fudbucker said:
The answer is in your tenses:
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Well, the real real answer is again in the grasping at magic. For a coin to transform itself into a non-coin in the real universe, you are likely near a naked gravitational singularity where the laws of physics no longer apply.

However, such objects themselves aren't likely to exist so we're still not in the real universe. Perhaps we can next imagine cthulhu rolling dice and suggest that it's equally possible for the die to display ancient magical runes.
 
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Fudbucker said:
It's impossible for the coin to change when you flip it?
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Fud, the issue is not whether it is possible for the coin to (somehow) be changed (pace entropy, causality, and object permanence) into a coin that could land showing tails.

Pay attention, Fud: the issue is that if a coin is changed so that it can land, showing "tails", then (and this is the important part) it is not a "two-headed coin".

A "two-headed coin" cannot land showing tails, Fud.

Fudbucker said:
I don't know what "Koozbain" means. It's like asking if any emeralds are "grue". If "grue" means entirely blue and entirely red at the same time, then it's not possible. If "grue" means "green", then yes.
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Koozbain is the place of which I am not, by definition, nor can I be, queen. Probability zero (not "almost zero"--zero).

ETA: Ninja-ed, most capably, by ehcks. GoonONya!
 
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Does anyone want to dispute the Bayes analysis I gave? If not, I'm going to assume it to be correct, and that the odds of alien life existing are unknown and cannot be determined with the information we have.
 
Fudbucker said:
Daylight, since you won't provide a probability analysis of your own, and can't do anything but repeat the same assertion, I'm not going to waste time on you.
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There is no need for it. You fail to recognize that because it clashes with your apparent rejection of prior probability.
 
Fudbucker said:
Does anyone want to dispute the Bayes analysis I gave? If not, I'm going to assume it to be correct, and that the odds of alien life existing are unknown and cannot be determined with the information we have.
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The universe contains life at at least one location, The universe is large beyond measure and uniform in its contents and physical laws. Therefore the universe contains life at more than one location.
 
Fudbucker said:
Does anyone want to dispute the Bayes analysis I gave? If not, I'm going to assume it to be correct, and that the odds of alien life existing are unknown and cannot be determined with the information we have.
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You did not give a valid Bayesian analysis, simply because you appear to have a need for redefinition of prior probability while rejection actual prior probability.
 
Fudbucker said:
The coin could change into anything unless it's stipulated that it can't change.

That is the problem Slow is having. Scenarios are always temporal, and whatever's stipulated to be true at the beginning of the scenario cannot be assumed to be true while the scenario plays out.

A two-headed coin can change in mid-toss. In order for that to be impossible, an additional premise has to be included: the coin is two-headed AND can't change.
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Fud, what do you call a "two-headed coin" of which one face is "heads" and one face is "tails"?
 
Fudbucker said:
When I think of ESP, I think of an ability that we have not seen before and for which no causal mechanism (or physical explanation) currently exists. This could be accurately predicting the future, telepathy, etc. There is no law of nature which states that people can't predict the future. We just haven't observed anyone with the ability. Perhaps the MWI of QM is correct, and they're able to scan other worlds in some way and assign probabilities for this one.
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What law of nature would permit prediction of the future (precise, accurate prediction; anyone can predict inaccurately or statistically)?
 
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