We're very close now, in what you're suggesting here. But I have a few follow up questions.
1. There was an article in the Mail on Sunday on November 4, 2007 (a sunday), describing a senior police detective saying they were investigating the possibility the murderer was a woman, someone close to Meredith.
So that tabloid story has to be leaked before it is published in London. If Stefano Bonassi made his statement about Rudy and the unflushed feces on Nov 4, the police appear from the article to be already eying Amanda.
From 'Waiting to be Heard', Chapt 9, "November 4, 2007, Day Three" -
2. If the police knew by Nov 4th, that 'the baron' Rudy, the non-flusher, might have been responsible, why would they have wanted to cover for Rudy?
Would the police have had some other indication only that the perp might be black, such as a partial DNA profile for sub-saharan ancestry, or hair and blood on Filomena's broken window that never made it through processing? (Info that Lumumba would be a biologically suitable candidate?).
Or, did they simply recognize Rudy's method of B&E, since Napoleone testified that Rudy was known in Perugia before the murder for his burglary activities?
Nencini asserts in his motivation that Rudy's method of B&E was well known to the police and that they would have recognized Rudy's MO. Nencini uses this to argue Rudy didn't stage the break-in. But it leaves the implication, that if the police would have recognized Rudy's MO right away, then it follows that they did recognize Rudy's MO right away. According to Nencini, it is logically necessary to conclude the police did recognize Rudy's MO when they first arrived at the crime scene.
3.
If the police did know from the crime scene, and from Stefano Bonassi, that they were looking for Rudy, or at a minimum, a young black male acquaintance of Stefano's from the basketball court, then what motivation would they have to frame Lumumba?
What would motivate the police to frame Lumumba and ensnare Amanda? But more specifically, what would motivate the police to point attention away from Rudy Gude/or alternatively Stefano's unknown acquaintance, and instead focus on Amanda and her boss Patrick.
The police MUST have wanted to implicate Patrick, AT THE SAME TIME THAT THEY KNEW they should have been looking for either Rudy, or at least Stefano's black basketball friend. SO WHY PROTECT RUDY/Stefano's FRIEND AT THAT POINT IN TIME?
4. The only logical motivation for the police that I've seen introduced, goes back to the incident in Milan, where a call came in from Perugia to let Rudy go, and put him back on a train to Perugia. Others have recently doubted this account, but I've seen the police officer in Milan who is quoted by name describing the call from Perugia, and saying something like, 'these things happen'.
So the police, deflecting attention away from Rudy Guede, is deflecting attention away from themselves. The Perugian police are guilty for not having prosecuted Guede for his burglaries in Perugia of which they were well aware, and for helping to free Guede from Milan.
The only contrary voice on the issue of Milan, is from Mach, who must always be taken with a few grains of salt.
Once the alibis of the boys downstairs check out, and the other two girls upstairs, all that's left available for the police to take the fall for Rudy, is Amanda. And the article appearing on Nov 4, shows the police were already moving in this direction on November 3rd.
Though I'm still trying to piece together the timeline, since this issue has revived my interest, - Stefano's November 4, 2007 statement on the Baron and his unflushed feces, was that statement made in the morning? Because the police led Amanda to the cottage that AFTERNOON, and tried to get her to pick up a knife from a drawer of unused utensils, and Amanda had a panic attack. Mignini, not very good liar that he is, used that incident to claim that Amanda's reaction is what aroused his suspicions of her.
So Numbers/LJ and others following this line of reasoning, the difference from my perspective, is whether you agree that the police recognized Rudy's MO of breaking and entry.
Because if you believe the police are intentionally framing Amanda and Lumumba on November 4th, then you have to explain their motivation for protecting Guede, which they must also be doing, because its the same act, just the flip-side of the coin. You have to explain the police motivation. And covering their own lying asses works pretty good, imo.