Continuation Part 11: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Bill Williams]

Almost all the guilters whose writings I have read are Migninians. They whole-heartedly support the theories of Mignini, and some are clearly slavish in their devotion to him. Theoretically, there may be Masseists and Nencinites, but there don't seem to be many of them. Have any been identified by their writings, which would support the differences in motivations of Massei or Nencini over the original claims of Mignini?

Probably Mignini's more extreme claims, such as psychopathology and the link to Halloween/Day of the Dead sex and murder, are more exciting and attention-grabbing than the relatively toned-down but still falsely-convicting Massei and Nencini motivations.

There are a few guilters who seem to have a general belief that Amanda Knox is guilty. Some of them also will mention Raffaele Sollecito, but the primary focus is Amanda. These "general belief" guilters often don't bother to be too specific why they have their belief in guilt. They may simply state that the Italian courts have found Amanda guilty. Of course, according to the Italian Constitution and the Convention, no one is judged guilty until the final sentence is issued. The "general belief" guilters may be even less knowledgeable about, or care less about, the legal issues than the Migninians and the theoretically existing Masseists and Nencinites.

There is a reason for this. The PMF webpage(s) cut their teeth on same-day reports from the court-room; mainly (AFAIK) from Andrea Vogt, although she rarely put her name to what appeared. The point is that for the first part of the trial, Mignini's case had unchallenged airing.

It didn't matter that what Mignini presented was not exactly "factual": the factoids were lurid and guilters outdid each other trying to see who could throw the best invective - usually against Knox, with Sollecito getting an occasional mention.

Then there's the conviction in Dec 2009, seemingly vindicating everything Mignini has presented. Yet at least one court observer, Barbie Latza Nadeau, says that night on CNN - "The prosecution case was weak, but the defence case was weaker. This could very well be overturned at appeal."

Still..... officially, Mignini looks vindicated.

Then - Ninety days later Massei's motivations report comes out, and it is months after that before the good folk at PMF supply the English speaking world a translation - unlike Anna Donnino, mainly an unmediated one!

It turned out that the best way to believe Mignini was not to read Massei's reasons. Further, the best way to believe in guilt was not to read Massei - except to continually refer to the number of pages Massei needed to explain the guilty verdict.

Mignini-ism took it's biggest hit from the Massei report. And other than the required return to the sex-game-gone-wrong theory, Cassazione in March 2013 pretty much abandoned Mignini, too - in an attempt to rescue Stefanoni, lest (as ISC noted) all DNA cases since 1989 be suddenly held suspect.

There are other guilters. Barbie Latza Nadeau.... "Knox knows something she's not telling us." Vibio apparently does not think Knox was ever in the room. Nencini is in his own world, even turning against Cassazione on sex-games.

Peter Quennell literally invents psychiatric reviews from prison, none of which ever found its way into a court. Amanda's and Raffaele's prison diaries made it to court, but apparently not official psychiatric assessments.

Is Pete a Migninian? Probably not. Yet his chief lawyer of the 100s of lawyers he claims to have is Machiavelli.... who's not even a lawyer.

I once said that one day they'll teach what bad journalism looks liike in journalism schools, and Vogt, Nadeau, Pisa, Follain will pay the price. Winterbottom beat them to it with his film.

Then they will put onto a timeline how guilters developed. And someone will explain why so many are Migninians and rarely, if ever, refer to reasons for guilt as found in the motivations reports.

 

[MDDVS]

Neutral supporters of innocence: Peter gill and many other scientists, John Douglas and other veteran Police crime scene investigators, judges, Washington state senator, many lawyers, etc.

Neutral supporters of guilt: andrea Vogt and other tabloid journalists, Machiavelli (sic), a bunch of anonymous internet posters, and ?

 

[MDDVS]

Neutral supporters of innocence: Peter gill and many other scientists, John Douglas and other veteran Police crime scene investigators, judges, Washington state senator, many lawyers, etc.

Neutral supporters of guilt: andrea Vogt and other tabloid journalists, Machiavelli (sic), a bunch of anonymous internet posters, and ?

 

[LondonJohn]

There are a few guilters who seem to have a general belief that Amanda Knox is guilty. Some of them also will mention Raffaele Sollecito, but the primary focus is Amanda. These "general belief" guilters often don't bother to be too specific why they have their belief in guilt. They may simply state that the Italian courts have found Amanda guilty. Of course, according to the Italian Constitution and the Convention, no one is judged guilty until the final sentence is issued. The "general belief" guilters may be even less knowledgeable about, or care less about, the legal issues than the Migninians and the theoretically existing Masseists and Nencinites.

I am of the firm belief that many pro-guilt idiots commentators are people who have been affected by violent crime either directly or indirectly, and that they therefore harbour feelings of vindictiveness, bitterness and anger. I think they see Knox in particular as a vehicle for their own self-catharsis. I also think they have in common a critical factor: a certain level of education and a long-standing obsession with engagement on the internet.

Browsing .eughhh on the back of what was posted here over the past few days, I came across a post that really encapsulates the approach being adopted by so many pro-guilt idiots commentators. It's regarding whether or not Guede doubled back to Kercher's room at the time when he left the faint (and vanishing) trail of bloody shoe prints going down the hallway (my bolding for emphasis):

I've tried to (sic) many times to rule out that Guede doubled-back to get Meredith's keys. I can't prove that it didn't happen but neither is there any evidence that it did.

Here is someone who is clearly desperate to find ways to vindicate a belief that Guede must have acted in concert with Knox and Sollecito. That sentence I've quoted above bears re-reading and remembering as a gold-standard example of the type of twisted logic that pretty much all the pro-guilt commentators are using to try to support their conclusion at all costs.

 

[Bill Williams]

Neutral supporters of innocence: Peter gill and many other scientists, John Douglas and other veteran Police crime scene investigators, judges, Washington state senator, many lawyers, etc.

Neutral supporters of guilt: andrea Vogt and other tabloid journalists, Machiavelli (sic), a bunch of anonymous internet posters, and ?

I can think of three or four reporters on CNN who are soft-believers in guilt; "soft" mainly because they are stuck on "Amanda's behaviour", whatever that means.

Katie Couric perhaps fits that description. When she had Raffaele Sollecito on her show, all she seemed to ask was about Amanda. Raffaele was just beginning to push back on those kinds of questions, and has now settled on the stock answer, "What does any of that have to do with me?"

 

[whoanellie]

I am of the firm belief that many pro-guilt idiots commentators are people who have been affected by violent crime either directly or indirectly, and that they therefore harbour feelings of vindictiveness, bitterness and anger.

One does not have to be a victim of violence to harbor those feelings......

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

Once again, I am discussing probabilities of black male versus white female plunging the knife.

This is independent of questions of other railroadings and miscarriages.

Well, profiling in this case isn't necessary, because we have evidence that solves the murder. Since you want to moot a profile anyway, I will note what I perceive as an error in your method.

This was a sexual homicide by a home intruder, a specific type of murder. Aggregate murder statistics include a slew of murders of a completely different nature, which occur with much greater frequency. When you narrow your statistical pool to sexual homicides by home intruders, you will find that the perpetrator is, indeed, far more likely to be a man than a woman. You will also find that race is not a significant factor in this type of crime.

 

[Charlie Wilkes]

The hilited term seems rude and uncivil.

Yes, there was a long thread in the member section about how uncivil we "Obknoxen" are.

 

[Samson]

Well, profiling in this case isn't necessary, because we have evidence that solves the murder. Since you want to moot a profile anyway, I will note what I perceive as an error in your method.

This was a sexual homicide by a home intruder, a specific type of murder. Aggregate murder statistics include a slew of murders of a completely different nature, which occur with much greater frequency. When you narrow your statistical pool to sexual homicides by home intruders, you will find that the perpetrator is, indeed, far more likely to be a man than a woman. You will also find that race is not a significant factor in this type of crime.

I concede, and appreciate a critical dissection to advance the debate, though I did not have a method, more I found a convenient juxtaposition of white female and black male on wikipedia, in a discussion of homicide statistics. I was also mindful of similar statistical imbalances in New Zealand, but these also probably relate to overall crime and incarceration rates rather than just homicides.
I continue to be annoyed that Machiavelli and others can use the accusation racist to deflect from the statistical truth that we can agree on, Rudy Guede (any ethnicity) is more likely to be the killer than Amanda Knox (any ethnicity), even before the physical evidence is assessed. When that is brought to the table, what follows is a huge misallocation of resources employed to keep her in the frame.

 

[whoanellie]

I concede, and appreciate a critical dissection to advance the debate, though I did not have a method, more I found a convenient juxtaposition of white female and black male on wikipedia, in a discussion of homicide statistics. I was also mindful of similar statistical imbalances in New Zealand, but these also probably relate to overall crime and incarceration rates rather than just homicides.
I continue to be annoyed that Machiavelli and others can use the accusation racist to deflect from the statistical truth that we can agree on, Rudy Guede (any ethnicity) is more likely to be the killer than Amanda Knox (any ethnicity), even before the physical evidence is assessed. When that is brought to the table, what follows is a huge misallocation of resources employed to keep her in the frame.

Samson, the more you keep digging the deeper you get.

 

[Samson]

Samson, the more you keep digging the deeper you get.

Your comments are expansive and helpful. Keep up the good work.

 

[whoanellie]

Well, profiling in this case isn't necessary, because we have evidence that solves the murder. Since you want to moot a profile anyway, I will note what I perceive as an error in your method.

This was a sexual homicide by a home intruder, a specific type of murder. Aggregate murder statistics include a slew of murders of a completely different nature, which occur with much greater frequency. When you narrow your statistical pool to sexual homicides by home intruders, you will find that the perpetrator is, indeed, far more likely to be a man than a woman. You will also find that race is not a significant factor in this type of crime.

There are multiple errors in Samson's "method".

The percentage of the population in Italy from sub-Saharan Africa is 0.54% . Would it really make sense for investigators in Perugia to start out looking for a black dude?

The problem with selective quoting of statistics to advance an argument is that statistics can be found to support a wide array of erroneous ideas.I can't find a statistic comparing the rate at which American females commit murder versus the rate for Italians (males or females). My guess is the murder rate in the US is much higher than in Italy. Maybe Mignini thought that statistcally-speaking Americans are murderous thugs and so focusing on the American close at hand made sense... Do you see how it works when you try to solve crime using statistics not evidence.

Starting with Skeptical Tank's "rant" yesterday (#5032) and continuing with Samson's statistical "method", the discussion taking place here over the last couple of days has been very disappointing to me as someone who believes 100% in the innocence of Amanda and Rafaele. Unfortunately I have found myself agreeing with some of the guilters comments about the tone of those posts.

 

[Bill Williams]

Samson, the more you keep digging the deeper you get.

We've all be caught out at various times. I know i have.

Well, all except Machiavelli - just ask him!

 

[Anode]

There are multiple errors in Samson's "method".

The percentage of the population in Italy from sub-Saharan Africa is 0.54% . Would it really make sense for investigators in Perugia to start out looking for a black dude?
The problem with selective quoting of statistics to advance an argument is that statistics can be found to support a wide array of erroneous ideas.I can't find a statistic comparing the rate at which American females commit murder versus the rate for Italians (males or females). My guess is the murder rate in the US is much higher than in Italy. Maybe Mignini thought that statistcally-speaking Americans are murderous thugs and so focusing on the American close at hand made sense... Do you see how it works when you try to solve crime using statistics not evidence.

Starting with Skeptical Tank's "rant" yesterday (#5032) and continuing with Samson's statistical "method", the discussion taking place here over the last couple of days has been very disappointing to me as someone who believes 100% in the innocence of Amanda and Rafaele. Unfortunately I have found myself agreeing with some of the guilters comments about the tone of those posts.

Indeed, what would have made sense would have been to wait a day or two for the forensics to come back and then say, "Hey, the DNA is from Rudy G.? What the heck was he doing in that room?" Then ask AK and her roommates about him. Try to determine if he had any reason that they know of to be in that room. But no. They wanted to solve it first...

 

[Samson]

There are multiple errors in Samson's "method".

The percentage of the population in Italy from sub-Saharan Africa is 0.54% . Would it really make sense for investigators in Perugia to start out looking for a black dude?The problem with selective quoting of statistics to advance an argument is that statistics can be found to support a wide array of erroneous ideas.I can't find a statistic comparing the rate at which American females commit murder versus the rate for Italians (males or females). My guess is the murder rate in the US is much higher than in Italy. Maybe Mignini thought that statistcally-speaking Americans are murderous thugs and so focusing on the American close at hand made sense... Do you see how it works when you try to solve crime using statistics not evidence.

Starting with Skeptical Tank's "rant" yesterday (#5032) and continuing with Samson's statistical "method", the discussion taking place here over the last couple of days has been very disappointing to me as someone who believes 100% in the innocence of Amanda and Rafaele. Unfortunately I have found myself agreeing with some of the guilters comments about the tone of those posts.

That is not the point. I was specifically beginning from a two known candidate premise, one white woman and one black man, both in jail, and saying it was statistically unlikely to be the white woman, before studying any evidence. But you came down like a ton of bricks despite the fact I agreed with Charlie that it was necessary to drop the ethnicity of the male in a sexual homicide, as he cited relevant data. In fact I doubt you actually read my post, but I am ready to move on.

 

[carbonjam72]

Indeed, what would have made sense would have been to wait a day or two for the forensics to come back and then say, "Hey, the DNA is from Rudy G.? What the heck was he doing in that room?" Then ask AK and her roommates about him. Try to determine if he had any reason that they know of to be in that room. But no. They wanted to solve it first...

Well as Numbers I think has pointed out, preliminary screening of the DNA results may have yielded a geographic of sub-saharan or something like that, so if that's the case, then yeah, they knew they were looking for a black guy.

And if napoleone & zugarini and possibly others like Mignini, recognized Rudy's breaking and entry MO, then yeah, again they knew they were looking for Rudy.

And if, as has come up pretty recently, one of the downstairs guys mentioned their new friend who left an unflushed feces in their toilet, and that their new friend was black, then yeah, they knew on Nov 4th they might be looking for a black man as a perp.

By the way, statistically, speaking, how many men on average in Italy, and in the vicinity of Perugia, leave their feces unflushed in toilets?

I mean, is there a bell curve? Ok, what's the median unflushed time Italian men leave their feces in toilets?

Please this is a serious question, so please nobody make a mockery of it.

 

[LondonJohn]

Yes, there was a long thread in the member section about how uncivil we "Obknoxen" are.

It's also rather interesting how "critical thinker" tsig has not seen fit to pipe up with similar self-righteous concern about the very recent use of terms such as "Knoxian", "pro-Knox" or "Knox supporter" to generically describe anyone who believes Knox (and, erm... Sollecito) should be acquitted. I wonder why that might be. Oh no, wait, I don't wonder at all........

 

[LondonJohn]

By the way, as I see it, the current state of understanding on the whole "Guede palm print identification" issue is this:

1) There was a readable palm print recovered from the pillow case

2) The print did not find a match in the Italian criminal database or the Interpol database

3) Guede was actually brought to the police's attention via other means (informant)

4) Only once Guede was known to the police in relation to this murder did the police send the palm print to Rome, where it was positively matched with Guede's prints on his immigration records.

I'd add another:

5) The police (and PM) appear to have attempted to rewrite history (not for the first time...) by putting forward that it was they who initially identified Guede via the palm print match (rather than the apparent truth, which is that they were informed of Guede's involvement by an associate of Guede's).

 

[Desert Fox]

It's also rather interesting how "critical thinker" tsig has not seen fit to pipe up with similar self-righteous concern about the very recent use of terms such as "Knoxian", "pro-Knox" or "Knox supporter" to generically describe anyone who believes Knox (and, erm... Sollecito) should be acquitted. I wonder why that might be. Oh no, wait, I don't wonder at all........

I would not worry too much. . . .Used to be being called a Darwinist as well because I believe in evolution. Maybe we can come up with some term for somebody who likes evidence "Evidencist"

I was reading an article on slate about college / university rapes and murders and then tend to have already committed crimes. . . .
http://www.slate.com/articles/doubl...ult_is_a_serious_problem_but_the_efforts.html
The names Hannah Graham and Morgan Harrington, two Virginia college students who were kidnapped, raped, and murdered, are powerful testimony to the need to get campus sexual assault right. Jesse Matthew, 32, being held for Graham’s murder, has also been linked to Harrington’s and will be tried for the rape of a third woman who managed to get away. When he was a college student, Matthew was expelled from two consecutive schools, Liberty University and Christopher Newport University, after accusations of rape. Tragically, neither case ended up in the criminal justice system. It is precisely because serial predators of the kind Lisak describes do exist that we should recognize adjudicating rape is not the job of college administrators but of law enforcement. Expelling a predator only sends him out into society to attack again.

There appears to be nothing even like this in either Amanda or Raff's background while it does appear that Guede has at least threatened people in the past with a knife. Thin previous evidence, sure, but far more than against Amanda or Raff. As well, being that life had thrown him some bad turns, his fault or not, he very well might have been seething inside.

 

[carbonjam72]

By the way, as I see it, the current state of understanding on the whole "Guede palm print identification" issue is this:

1) There was a readable palm print recovered from the pillow case

2) The print did not find a match in the Italian criminal database or the Interpol database

3) Guede was actually brought to the police's attention via other means (informant)

4) Only once Guede was known to the police in relation to this murder did the police send the palm print to Rome, where it was positively matched with Guede's prints on his immigration records.
I'd add another:

5) The police (and PM) appear to have attempted to rewrite history (not for the first time...) by putting forward that it was they who initially identified Guede via the palm print match (rather than the apparent truth, which is that they were informed of Guede's involvement by an associate of Guede's).

I'm not onboard with this yet. I still need to know the circumstances of Guede's friend approaching the police, and when. Do you have any links or info on this question?

The other issue I have, is I interpret the last few posts as meaning that the immigration cards were sent from Perugia to Rome as part of the investigation. i.e., 'round up the usual suspects' - "let's check the identity print sets of immigrants on file. I can imagine police doing that as part of the routine grind of an investigation-

A way to disprove this idea though, would be to ask where the Perugian resident immigrants palm prints files were kept - in Rome, or in Perugia? Apart from trying to guess which is more likely, that records are stored centrally, or simply stored where they are collected, it would help to have an actual factual answer.

This ought to be an easy one to confirm. My apologies if I've misread the recent posts and translations.