Global warming discussion III

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macdoc said:
oww
[qimg]https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-i2A3IAUUODo/VGk9suXiDUI/AAAAAAAAJvE/GucfVQPbu-g/s640/141114090009-large-2.jpg[/qimg]
more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/11/141114090009.htm
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Mmmm ...

Timmermann and Trenberth speculating about the end of the Hiatus.

Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming…
The biggest oddity about the interviews with Timmermann and Trenberth is their beliefs that global warming ceases during IPO and PDO “cool” periods and global warming occurs during their “warm” modes. While the IPO and PDO are aftereffects of the actual driving mechanism, which is ENSO, that’s not what’s odd about their beliefs. The oddity is that skeptics have been presenting that same argument for more than a decade.
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My bolding
 
Lol, man Bob Tisdale sucks at designing GIF graphs nearly as much as he sucks at comprehending complex sciences :D

The biggest oddity about the interviews with Timmermann and Trenberth is their beliefs that global warming ceases during IPO and PDO “cool” periods and global warming occurs during their “warm” modes.
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Haven't bothered following any of the links but I am 100% confident that's NOT what Trenberth et al. actually believe. Maybe Tisdale should try reading journal articles rather than divining deep meaning from quotes in press releases? :rolleyes:
 
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I can't believe such people are really incapable of grasping that an underlying trend will be drowned out when the noise is in the opposite direction and amplified when the noise is in the same direction, and will only be statistically significant over periods long enough for the noise to average out. The ignorance must be wilful.
 
Pixel42 said:
I can't believe such people are really incapable of grasping that an underlying trend will be drowned out when the noise is in the opposite direction and amplified when the noise is in the same direction, and will only be statistically significant over periods long enough for the noise to average out. The ignorance must be wilful.
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It is warmer today than it was yesterday. This proves that the so called experts warning us about winter are liars. :rolleyes:
 
Kestrel said:
It is warmer today than it was yesterday. This proves that the so called experts warning us about winter are liars. :rolleyes:
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Reminds me of when Denial Depot disproved summer
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Summer Shattered: No Warming Since February

picture.php
 
From Haig (Quote function not working for me)
Mmmm ...

Timmermann and Trenberth speculating about the end of the Hiatus.

Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming…
Quote:
The biggest oddity about the interviews with Timmermann and Trenberth is their beliefs that global warming ceases during IPO and PDO “cool” periods and global warming occurs during their “warm” modes. While the IPO and PDO are aftereffects of the actual driving mechanism, which is ENSO, that’s not what’s odd about their beliefs. The oddity is that skeptics have been presenting that same argument for more than a decade.
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My bolding
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Deniers haven't been "presenting that same argument" at all; they've been claiming that the mythical Pause proves there is no global warming. People like me have been pointing out that a PDO phase-shift from warm to cool will naturally mask AGW on the surface and that when the phase shifts backthere will be an apparent surge - which deniers will only then explain as being connected to the PDO.

Notice the weaseling : a warm-phase PDO causes global warming while a cool-phase doesn't cause cooling, it just prevents warming. In truth, of course, a PDO phase-shift from warm to cool does indeed cause cooling in the normal course of events, but these days it's masked by AGW.
 
CapelDodger said:
It's colder here than it was yesterday. This proves that we're living on different planets ;).
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"Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away
Now it looks as though they're here to stay
Oh, I believe in yesterday..."
 
Haig said:
Timmermann and Trenberth speculating about the end of the Hiatus.
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Not quite right, Haig - Timmermann and Trenberth are stating the obvious, i.e. that the hiatus will end - well duh, that is what natural variability means!
The reasonable speculation is that the hiatus has ended since the evidence is that ocean temperatures are increasing. But we will not know for sure until there is a statistically significant trend.

Bob Tisdale is in denial of the science that CO2 also drives global temperatures and the evidence is that it is the primary driver of global temperatures over the last 30 to 40 years.

Highlighting a climate science deniers text is not good, Haig - read the sources instead.
Ocean warming picks up speed, hits warmest temperatures ever recorded
“Record-breaking greenhouse gas concentrations and anomalously weak North Pacific summer trade winds, which usually cool the ocean surface, have contributed further to the rise in sea surface temperatures. The warm temperatures now extend in a wide swath from just north of Papua New Guinea to the Gulf of Alaska (Figure 1b),” says Timmermann. The current record-breaking temperatures indicate that the 14-year-long pause in ocean warming has come to an end
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(my emphasis of what Timmermann actually said added)

Warming Pacific Drives Global Temperatures
Results

So during 2014 the waters of the northern, north eastern and central Pacific have all warmed significantly. This has had the effect of raising the global average surface temperature to record levels which will almost certainly result in 2014 being reported as the warmest year on record.

Trenberth explained that there have been widespread impacts on the weather as storm systems – such as the recent Typhoon Nuri - moved further northwards than usual, drought conditions in California persist while a mass of cold air moved south across central and eastern North America in November.

Meanwhile waters off the coast of Hawaii reached 29oC or 30oC through the summer, according to Timmermann, causing corals to die and bleach. “We have seen temperature anomalies of 4oC in some area – very extreme. This warming is bad news for salmon fisheries and also for coral. Fish and sea life are experiencing this year what we are projecting for 100 years time,” said Timmermann.
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Why Doesn’t Everyone Believe Humans Are Causing Climate Change?

NOVA has a nice new piece out.

...Only 40% of Americans attribute global warming to human activity, according to a recent Pew Research Center poll. This, despite decades of scientific evidence and the fact that Americans generally trust climate scientists.

That apparent cognitive dissonance has vexed two scientists in particular: Michael Ranney, a professor of education at the University of California, Berkeley, and Dan Kahan, a professor of law at Yale University. According to both, we haven’t been asking the right questions. But they disagree on what, exactly, those questions should be. If one or both of them are right, the shift in tone could transform our society’s debate over climate change...
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The NOAA State of the Climate report for October is up:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/10

•The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for October, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). [...]

•The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2014 were the warmest such period on record.
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and that's with ENSO neutral conditions:

These record and near-record warm global sea surface temperatures have all occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that generally occurs every five to seven years on average. However, there is close to a 60 percent chance for El Niño to officially develop during the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The potential El Niño is favored to be weak and last into Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
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Another deadly summer is approaching in Australia :(

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...126679445?nk=f191e4ae5c2bd53a8e72cba81dd1da00

EXTREME heat has killed thousands bats in northern NSW, with wildlife carers now working around the clock to save hundreds of orphaned babies while council workers clear huge piles of flying fox carcasses.

Temperatures rocketed to 44 degrees in Casino on Saturday, sparking the mass deaths of up to 5000 flying foxes, many of which simply dropped out of trees and were dead before they hit the ground.

In similar scenes, more than 2000 flying foxes perished in the Richmond Valley at the weekend.
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meanwhile, the odds of El Nino conditions have ratcheted up in the on again off again forecasting

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...by-australia-as-tropical-pacific-sizzles.html

Australia raised an El Nino warning after the Pacific Ocean showed renewed signs of the pattern that can bring drought to parts of Asia and heavier-than-usual rain to South America.

Climate models suggest current conditions will persist or strengthen, prompting the status to be elevated from watch to alert, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website today. The alert indicates at least a 70 percent chance of El Nino, it said.

The bureau had previously pushed back projections for the onset of El Nino as changes to the atmosphere failed to develop consistently. The odds of the event during the Northern Hemisphere winter are 58 percent, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Nov. 6. El Ninos can roil agricultural markets worldwide as farmers contend with drought or too much rain.
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This is kind of depressing - not sure I can handle another heat dome summer - 2012-13 was brutal :(
 
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Ugh :(

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...reviously-predicted-for-2030?CMP=share_btn_tw

The government has been urged to better articulate the dangers of climate change after a report that shows the frequency of heatwaves in parts of Australia has already surpassed levels previously predicted for 2030.

The Climate Council report highlights that Adelaide, Melbourne and Canberra all experienced a higher average number of hot days between 2000 and 2009 than was expected to occur by 2030.

Research by the CSIRO forecast that Melbourne would experience an average of 12 days over 35C each year from 2030, but the average over the past decade was 12.6 days.

Adelaide experienced an average of 25.1 days a year over 35C in this time, while Canberra surpassed this mark an average of 9.4 days.

The annual number of record hot days across Australia has more than doubled since 1950, according to the Climate Council report, with the south-east of the country at particular risk from more frequent heatwaves, drought and bushfires.
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Why should uncle anthony care anyways....he doesn't
a) think it's warming
b) if it is think it's manmade....

Total idjit. At least his funding from fossil interests has been outed.
 
macdoc said:
Why should uncle anthony care anyways....he doesn't
a) think it's warming
b) if it is think it's manmade....

Total idjit. At least his funding from fossil interests has been outed.
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The Koch brothers' bought and paid for U.S. House of representatives feel that fossil interests are an important factor determining which scientists make it on the EPA Science Advisory Board.

The House That Kochs Bought Passes Bill Muzzling EPA Scientists

...On Tuesday, to ensure that the “right kind of scientists” are doling out advice on environmental protections, Republicans in the House passed legislation to guarantee that oil industry scientists loyal to the Kochs, and not independent scientists, serve on the Environmental Protection Agency’s Science Advisory Board. The rule change prohibits scientists not in the employ of the oil industry from talking about, or giving advice based on, independent scientific research, and prevents them from applying for grants from the EPA for further research.

The bill does, however, make it easier for “scientists” with financial ties to big oil and corporations to serve on the SAB and set environmental policy. The EPA, and the SAB, already allows some scientists and advisors with oil industry “expertise” to serve on the board, but the bill’s sponsor, Chris Stewart (R-UT) says it is not enough because the Koch brothers’ interests cannot control the direction of the EPA; his legislation remedies that.

The bill, the Science Advisory Board Reform Act, fulfills all of the industry, and Republicans’ requirements for their vision of environmental policy. Stewart has never concealed his profound distrust of scientists, an ardent hatred of the EPA, and support for the oil and gas industry bordering on religious fanaticism; a typical Republican. In fact, the Mormon Stewart not only disbelieves real science proving the existence of climate change, he openly wants and has called for, like most Republicans, the summary elimination of the EPA over something related to faith...
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http://www.politicususa.com/2014/11...asses-bill-muzzling-epas-real-scientists.html
 
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