Errors in your argument
1) The denial that people behave illogically goes against modern psychology. Many decisions are made below a level of conscious thought.
But, this is a 'straw man'; it changes the premise that you object. Indeed behaviours are motivated below a conscious level, but sub-conscious mind (whatever the term, 'inconscious' or 'subconscious' you chose) is profoundly organized and logical. "Logical" does not mean "conscious".
2) That because you can not come up with a logical explanation there is not one.
But if
nobody can present a logical explanation, we have to note it.
3) Even when people explain an action it is usually post hoc rationalisation.
Do you really think that in the stress of the moment Guede stopped and thought, what are the pros and cons of locking this door? He just did it.
Again, I repeat the concept: am not taking the single actions one by one and ask myself about the logical vaules (cause, function, purpose) of each one separately. Let's take the data altogether and see where there are logical patterns. I
assume that if Guede ever locked the door, then certainly his subconscious mind was motivated to this decision by some logical reason, but I do not expect him to be aware of it nor will I try to find it out deducing it from the single action taken in isolation.
However I do question myself about consistency, which also includes consistency of behaviour; I question myself for example about consistency between trail of bloody shoeprint from bedroom to house door, and absence of any trace of shoeprints back from house door to bedroom. If Guede did both the walks, is the complete visiblity of the first trail consistent with the complete absence of the second trail (not even highlighted with luminol)? It's clear to me that there is a poor grade of consistency between the two assumptions. And I can't fail to not that there is a complete lack of proof about the second action.
So the same for example I ask myself:if Rudy locks the bedroom door (hypothetical, unproven hypotheses), this action entails some purpose; is this purpose consistent with the other actions that I have attributed to Guede? If the possible purposes and motives of this latter action that I putatively attribute to Guede, are not consistent with purposes of his other actions, I have to note it. I also need to note that there is a poor consistency on first sight between facts like leaving bloody shoeprints and the washing of bare feets. And washing your trousers, to the point of getting your wet foot completely wet as well, it is not really consistent with not dripping bloody water around.
Haematoma on the vagina is not consistent with a sexual violence after a fatal stabbing, since you know peripheral pressure would drop immediately as consequence of hypovolemic shock. Spending minutes for washing himself between the fatal stabbing and the alleged post-delictum rape, it's a further element that won't be consistent with her still being alive during the post-delictum rape or with her having a vital blood pressure.
The stepping on the pillow with bloody shoes is not consistent with being located before the alleged washing in the bathroom. But it is also inconsistent with the post-mortem rape theory if it is located after the washing, because in the post morte-rape theory the pillow is places under the victim's body.
The placement of a pillow under the victim's body is not consistent with a bloody hand print on it, if it's placed there after the washing of hands.
The washing of hands of Guede in the small bathroom is not consistent with the absence of Guede's blood cells in basin and bidt and on the edge of the drains.
The post-mortem rape theory is not consistent with the absence of bloody handprints or blood smears on the victim's body. The semen stain/shoeprint theory is not consistent with locating the moment of stepping on the pillow before the moment when the pillow was placed under the body.
But these are only
some of the inconsistencies.
We didn't even speak about the autopsy report like how to immobilize a vitcim and many other things, concerning behaviour and modus operandi also.
So to conclude, the problem is not asking about the psychological meaning or logical value of each action. It's about looking if there are logical patterns. The actions and elements that I listed above are a set of elements that show a poor consistency.
You say that we posit an unusual perpetrator in Guede as a lone assailant. The truth is burglaries ending in rape of a lone female are common, this happened to an acquaintance of mine, a nurse asleep mid afternoon after a night shift.
This is not true, certainly not in Italy. In Perugia in years around 2006-2012 there was an average between 600 and 1000 break ins in private houses per year. In less than 1-2 cases per year violent behaviours (threat) occurred, and there is significantly less than 1 case per year of physical violence. There was no case of rape or physical injury over the recent years.
But this is beyond the point. First, you need to consider that the FOAs theory is not a theory of 'burglary ending in rape', it is a theory of break in a private house that ends in a
homicide followed by a post
mortem-rape.
No way this is a common kind of crime.
I agree progression to murder is less common but well recognised. The scenario you argue for a group murder where only two of the three are acquainted with each other, and only for a short period, resulting in a rape murder for no good reason, is unique
.
It's an illusion. It's not true that a group crime committed by students with no good reason would be less common than the theory of killing and
post-mortem rape presented by the FOAs. Both are extremely uncommon crimes. Still, we have the same statistical argument: both events are too unusual, we are too far away in the tail of the Gaussian curve in order to draw useful inference from comparing probabilities. It is also not true that only two are acquainted with each other, since Knox and Guede knew each other, Knox had been knowing Guede for longer than Sollecito, and has been partying together with Guede inside that very same house (so Knox is a trait d'union who knows both perpetrators).
Yet, there are cases of murder with features that resemble the situation of somehow 'normal' looking students who commit murder or an acquaintance or a flatmate in strange circumstances, maybe related to sex; for example an Iranian student of the Art Academy was killed in Milan by her female roommate together with her boyfriend, in February of 2014, apparently after forcing her to take part to a sex game. I don't want to seek out strange violent crimes in the recent records, but just know that there are cases of every kind, there are horrendous strange cases in the US, and some in Europe too. I recall 3-4 years ago for example in Skt. Petersburg, of a couple of 20 year old students who killed and ate their 16 year old girl roommate