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Continuation Part 11: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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Dan O. said:
I thought blood stopped pumping once heart stops beating. Blood will only seep, flow gently in this case. How does this fact explain the marks left on the duvet? Knowing duvets...and observing the type covering Meredith's body, it was of the uneven lumpy type yet blood had collected in a large pattern on it. Considering Meredith was on her back, and if her heart had ceased beating, one would expect any gentle blood flow to seep down her neck onto floor rather than arrive on the duvet placed over her I would have thought?


Perhaps it was absorbed through osmosis.

I believe that the duvet was already on the floor prior to the murder. Meredith's purse and the notebook on the bed are indications that the bed was clear when those items were deposited there either when Meredith came home or even prior to that. Being on the floor, it is possible for the duvet to come into contact with the pooling blood before it is flipped over the top of Meredith.

One of the things I would expect to see in the court evidence where the blood patern on the duvet is being presented as evidence is a photo of the duvet spread out showing those blood patterns on front and back. Without such photos it is rather difficult to discuss what the blood patterns on the duvet do or do not show.
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I'd like to thank RW for his posts that prompt these brainstorming efforts. It certainly beats playing an endless game of Whack-a-Machi, IMO.

I think a first step to understanding what happened in Meredith's bedroom would be to detail the sequence of events.

For example, the bloody towels were on the floor under the duvet which indicates they were used before the duvet was dragged off the bed. Also I am pretty sure the blood on the duvet is almost exclusively seepage from the bloody towels on the floor so the duvet was clean of blood before that time.

The knife imprint on the bed obviously occurred after the duvet was removed, so consequently after the towels were bloodied, and after Meredith had been murdered. Besides that Meredith was placed partially on top of the duvet so that must have occurred after she was fatally stabbed.

So:
- Meredith stabbed (fatally?) with the knife.
- Towels retrieved from the bathroom.
- Towels used in such a way to collect large amounts of blood.
- Towels thrown on the floor close to the bed.
- Duvet dragged off the bed, onto the floor and over the towels.
- Knife set on bed sheet either now or later.
- Meredith dragged over to, and partially on top of the duvet.
- Duvet folded over Meredith either know or later.

Now consider that:
- A pillow was under Meredith's body.
- Rudy's running shoe footprints and palm print all made in blood were on top of the pillow.
- The bra clasp was found under the pillow (I believe).
- etc.

Cody
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Usable for what? The sole piece of evidence justifying the imprisonment of someone for life? Yeah, protocol-violating evidence shouldn't be used for that.

Who said anything about the sole piece of evidence? That's precisely what I'm not talking about.
 
None. What if the technician took all the steps but because he was distracted and didn't get round to labelling the specimen, he is not certain but is nevertheless pretty sure of the result and there is no time to conduct a fresh test?

Complete certainty is nice to have but not always (or ever?) attainable. If we insist on scientific certainty and nothing less then we may end up with no scientific evidence at all. IOW even with properly validated procedures we are only approaching certainty, not attaining it. Not always anyway.

The degree of certainty required will depend on the task. If we are sending a guy to Mars we have almost no margin for error but certainty is not required to prove guilt. Are we certain this fingerprint belongs to the defendant? Certain?
Not everyone thinks so.

Honesty is crucial. The idea of scientific "certainty" is an incorrect view. There are different degrees of uncertainty; sometimes how one approximates reality depends how "certain" a concept is. Stating forensic results in terms of probabilities is, or should be, done for DNA profile results and other results as appropriate. Often, an expert at trial who claims something is "certain" is BSing.

There is a high degree of certainty expected with, for example, an antigen-antibody test, but that does not mean it is perfectly certain. But to adopt a test as indicating something when in fact there are many complicating factors, false positives or false negatives, and other simple and relatively inexpensive tests would give more certain information, is dishonest in forensics. If one supports principles such as expressed by ECHR Article 5, that there is a right to liberty, then one will not advocate "sentence first, trial later," nor be a proponent of incomplete or intentionally ambiguous or dishonest forensic testing.

One factor in wrongful convictions is the drive by the police to force or induce eye witnesses, for example, to be "certain" of an ID when in fact the witness claims uncertainty. Or the police mark their favorite suspect in some distinctive way in contrast to "controls" - non-favorite suspects in a line-up, for example. This is an example of the justice system looking for certainty; it is not a scientific endeavor, but one police and prosecutors believe is required by the trial process.
 
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I think a first step to understanding what happened in Meredith's bedroom would be to detail the sequence of events.

For example, the bloody towels were on the floor under the duvet which indicates they were used before the duvet was dragged off the bed. Also I am pretty sure the blood on the duvet is almost exclusively seepage from the bloody towels on the floor so the duvet was clean of blood before that time.


There is a piece you missed. The top sheet of the bed is under the towels and splattered with aspirated blood. (dsc_0182.jpg Nov 2, 2007, 6:22:27 PM)
 
Yeah, yeah, I know. Sometimes, people really are guilty though.

Simply because the confession is coerced doesn't mean the person isn't guilty.

And if the police supply enough known details of the crime to the person confessing, and put the details in the signed and videotaped confession, it wil be difficult to think that person is not guilty. I mean, how could they know that much about the crime if they haven't been involved?
 
Simply because the confession is coerced doesn't mean the person isn't guilty.

And if the police supply enough known details of the crime to the person confessing, and put the details in the signed and videotaped confession, it wil be difficult to think that person is not guilty. I mean, how could they know that much about the crime if they haven't been involved?

You have totally lost me.
 
You have totally lost me.

The false, detailed coerced confession is a technique that has been used by dishonest police in the US to achieve convictions of innocents when it wasn't convenient for the police to find the actual perpetrator(s).

When the innocent person disavows the coerced confession, the judge and jury don't consider the disavowal true, because so much actual detail is in the confession. In some cases the police took the innocent "suspect" to the crime scene and familiarized him with the details of the site and the crime. This has come to light primarily because of exonerations by exculpatory DNA evidence.
 
The false, detailed coerced confession is a technique that has been used by dishonest police in the US to achieve convictions of innocents when it wasn't convenient for the police to find the actual perpetrator(s).

When the innocent person disavows the coerced confession, the judge and jury don't consider the disavowal true, because so much actual detail is in the confession. In some cases the police took the innocent "suspect" to the crime scene and familiarized him with the details of the site and the crime. This has come to light primarily because of exonerations by exculpatory DNA evidence.

Right, but I still don't get any connection with what we have been discussing.
 
Another "crime-solving" technique for the dishonest: evidence tampering. Even the FBI can have these misconduct issues. Who knew.

FBI agent in misconduct case may have tampered with drugs, guns, documents say


From: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...440-11e4-bb14-4cfea1e742d5_story.html?hpid=z3

Federal prosecutors said Wednesday they will dismiss indictments against 28 defendants in District drug cases amid an investigation of an FBI agent accused of tampering with evidence, including narcotics and guns, according to newly unsealed court documents.

Fourteen of those defendants have already pleaded guilty and were serving sentences — one was a year into a 10-year term — and prosecutors said they can withdraw their guilty pleas and the charges would be dropped. A hearing is scheduled Friday in U.S. District Court for many of the defendants.

The stunning action by the U.S. attorney’s office came as authorities continue to scrutinize cases that the agent, assigned to a D.C. police task force in the FBI’s Washington Field Office, may have been involved with. The agent, who has not been charged criminally, has been suspended in what officials describe as a misconduct investigation.
 
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Right, but I still don't get any connection with what we have been discussing.

I think the background was that Diocletus posted something about a forensic test being the "sole" evidence; you responded that it would not be the "sole" evidence; I "humorously" (or satirically or maliciously) suggested that the other evidence was a coerced confession. Then I pointed out that someone coerced might actually be guilty. Or perhaps not.
 
Peter Gill describes framework or hierarchy of levels (p. 19 of his book) at which DNA evidence can be evaluated:
1. The sub-source level refers to the strength of evidence of the DNA profile itself.
2. The source level is an evaluation of the strength of the DNA profile if it can be associated with a particular body fluid, such as semen or blood
3. The activity level associates the DNA with the crime itself, e.g. sexual assault.
4. The highest level deals with the ultimate issue of guilt/innocence.

A link to a radio interview on 4 November is here. The interview with Dr. Gill starts around 20 minutes into the broadcast. He mentions the issue of not knowing the source of the DNA with respect to low template work.

This issue really needs to reach mainstream, maybe in either on of those CSI programs or a movie.
 
Usable for what? The sole piece of evidence justifying the imprisonment of someone for life? Yeah, protocol-violating evidence shouldn't be used for that.

Ok, so the sole piece of evidence for life imprisonment is not acceptable?

How about 20 years? 10 Years? 5 Years? 1 year? How about just a conviction that tarnishes your good name?

Why would evidence that is deemed unreliable on its own, attain greater validity in combination with other evidence (of whatever quality)?

If the protocol for the test hasn't been followed, its not a valid result. That's not science, that's pseudo-science. Testing protocols probably aren't intended to be brain surgery, or experimental. They're probably intended to be clear, easy to follow, repeatable, and verifiable. (Just guessing here).

The whole point is to take away the insertion of egos, ambition, and bias from the lab.

To the point, didn't Novelli claim that Stef's experience and expertise was important to her achieving a scientifically valid result? Thus her use of LCN DNA in an uncertified lab was not pseudo-science, but bold, experimental and a heroic feat, that she's a Sherlock in the lab, using her sciency powers to put away two young murderers who had the temerity to look so god damn innocent.

Anglo, if you are a prosecutor in real life, is it possible you may have a mild 'conflict of interest' on this issue?
 
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There is a piece you missed. The top sheet of the bed is under the towels and splattered with aspirated blood. (dsc_0182.jpg Nov 2, 2007, 6:22:27 PM)
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Thanks, the more information the better.

So while restricting ourselves to creating a time line without trying to solve the crime at this point, how do we fit that sheet into the time line?

Cody
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Sampson,

Thank you for posting that quotation. There are some problems in the reasoning employed, and it might be worth one’s while to examine them.

First is the question of what is meant by reliability or unreliability of a DNA profile in the context of forensics. It has been known for more than twenty years that one can use the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to obtain DNA profiles from as little as one or two cells (I posted this information many continuation threads ago). Therefore, it is no surprise whatsoever that the Carabinieri were able to obtain a profile.

Second is the question of how the test was performed and reported. From what I recall, the Carabinieri created a consensus profile from two amplifications, whereas Stefanoni did just one. Someone else may know better than I do, but didn’t they also deposit electronic data files? In addition Stefanoni’s lab was not even certified for standard profiling at the time. I am not sure about the forensic lab of the Carabinieri, but for argument’s sake, let us say it was. A third problem is that low template work should be done in dedicated facilities, not in the same lab as the regular testing. These problems are all swept under the rug when one makes a hasty comparison between the results from two different labs.

IMO the most important question is whether or not such a small amount of material is useful in a forensic context. There are several reasons to question whether or not it is. The 2013 review article by Meakin and Jamieson that I have previously cited is one source for information on low levels of DNA, and it mentions the problem that when an item of evidence is packaged the location of the DNA may be affected. Presumably this happens if the object tumbles around, coming into contact with the packaging and transferring the DNA to different locations on the object. The source of Amanda’s DNA on the blade may well be her DNA that was on the handle.

Dr. Schneps does not seem impressed with arguments based upon secondary or tertiary transfer. Nowhere in this passage does Dr. Schneps address the problem that Gubbiotti repackaged the knife. There was no reason whatsoever to do this, and I would have tossed the knife on the grounds that the packaged was opened alone, apart from all of its other problems. His clothing may have carried DNA from the flat to the station. I gave a citation some time ago in these threads which showed that DNA can be found on clothing that is neither from the wearer or his/her immediate family.

A major problem here may be that when DNA profiling was first introduced, large amounts of material were needed, a point that Dr. Gill made in a very recent interview. The introduction of PCR made it possible to test small samples, and the use of low template DNA requires even less material. As objects get smaller they are transferred more easily and in ways that are not always noticeable. Perhaps a simple analogy might help. An ordinary breeze is not strong enough to carry pebbles, but it is capable of blowing sand around.

I’d like to come back to the question of dedicated facilities because it is related to the question of aerosol DNA. Facilities working with low quantities of DNA often have special air handling needs, as I mentioned on my blog. If airborne contamination were impossible, as some PG-commenters seem to believe, then all the money that is spent on these facilities, and precautions such as pipet tips with aerosol barriers is wasted. BTW DNA may be detected several feet past where a person is speaking, which is further evidence of the existence of aerosol DNA. Dried blood is a more serious problem than wet blood from the point of view of aerosols.

An additional problem is what the SCC said about the test on 36I. They referred to it as “decisive.” How can it be decisive if the results are inculpatory, no matter which way the test turns out? A related problem is that Nencini turned aside valid requests from the defense, raising questions about his objectivity (and answering them).

Dr. Schneps does not address the paradox of DNA but no blood on the knife in this passage. The 2004 article by Peel and Gill makes me question more forcefully how this would even be possible. Nor does she address Stefanoni’s credibilitiy problems. In addition, the problem of laboratory contamination is far more extensive than the question of how many days elapsed since the last time a piece of equipment was used. For anyone to draw the inferences that Dr. Schneps does (that 36B is strengthened and that Vecchiotti was wrong) is completely unwarranted.
She is intelligent, making strong cases for the defence in the postal police controversy, and for Oscar Pistorius in his account, claiming fairly to be an independent thinker.
If only she would debate the whole Kercher case here, not just the knife, progress might be made.
 
There is a piece you missed. The top sheet of the bed is under the towels and splattered with aspirated blood. (dsc_0182.jpg Nov 2, 2007, 6:22:27 PM)

Having looked at 0182 and all the other photos I have to disagree.

The top sheet, the duvet cover and the pillowcase are all missing.
It would seem Meredith stripped her bed before going to meet her friends.
When she returned home she placed her bag and borrowed book on top of the mattress cover. The duvet was probably folded up there.
 
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