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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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Thank you for being blunt.

I'm not arguing that Rudy isn't the killer, although I think it's possible (if he did kill her) that it might have been an accident.

All I'm saying is that there is no evidence that absolutely and definitely proves that Rudy did kill her. The killer might have had gloves on for all we know. Do they find forensic scientist's DNA at crime scenes?

Hopefully you're not saying that no evidence being there proves absolutely that no one else was there, because although it makes it very improbable, it's not impossible.

And you know as well as I do, criminals do and have done (and will probably do forever) stupid things,

You can never be 100% sure of guilt. You yourself just argued that it is very improbable that somebody else was responsible. That is how I see reasonable doubt. How reasonable is it for somebody else to be involved. If is it very unlikely, you can convict in my opinion.

That is also why I am against the death penalty. Say we do find that somebody else actually was responsible, I can say sorry to him and the state can recompense him.

What I argue does not mean that you can convict somebody on a maybe such as Russ Faria for example (or Amanda or Raff.)
 
Typically, luminol is preferred over other reagents in presumptive testing to identify bloodstains only in those cases in which the stain cannot be seen with the naked eye. The current study found, however, that the detection limit for luminol and the possibility of obtaining a false negative result on a bloodstain were significantly lower for luminol when compared with the reagents of o-tolidine, phenolphthalein, or any other reagent based on similar oxidation/reduction mechanisms. It has also been customary to undertake a second confirmation test when using luminol. This procedure should be reconsidered, given that luminol has been found to be more sensitive than other reagents and presents less interference. A confirmation test only makes sense when a more reliable procedure is used in the confirmation test. The Material Safety Data Sheets for o-tolidine and phenolphthalein, as well as for other reagent components, have more severe warnings than those for luminol. Another advantage of luminol is that because of the peculiar nature of its reaction mechanism, the test can be repeated various times, which cannot be done with other tests. The article concludes that there is no reason why luminol, as a unique detection method for invisible bloodstains, should not be given the status of a first-choice test when establishing the hematological nature of a stain.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=198016

Full article is behind a paywall.
 
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I, too, appreciate Machiavelli's honesty. He appears to actually believe the content of his posts.

Yet, what he believes is incredible. At one point Machiavelli said he could glean from her writings that she was immune from sleep deprivation issues. What is at stake there is that he believes she went into the Nov 5/6 interrogation ready and rested to pull the wool over the eyes of the investigators.

It's things like that which are troubling is if truly believes it, as well as the specific method by which he claims to have accumulated the belief.
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Some of his/ her arguements are a little strange, but that may just be the language barrier or maybe I'm just misinterpreting his logic or reasoning.

But, I do have to say (although I disagree with a lot of his reasoning) that some of his/ her legal logic does make sense (as it applies to Italian law anyway), I just wish h/ she wouldn't use it to dismiss some of our arguements, such as the contamination issue with the bra-clasp,

d

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Well, strangely enough, the abstract to the paper referenced here reads as follows (my highlighting):

Luminol, leuchomalachite green, phenolphthalein, Hemastix®, Hemident™, and Bluestar© are all used as presumptive tests for blood. In this study, the tests were subjected to dilute blood (from 1:10,000 to 1:10,000,000), many common household substance, and chemicals. Samples were tested for DNA to determine whether the presumptive tests damaged or destroyed DNA. The DNA loci tested were D2S1338 and D19S433. Leuchomalachite green had a sensitivity of 1:10,000, while the remaining tests were able to detect blood to a dilution of 1:100,000.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1556-4029.2006.00324.x/abstract


Now call me Mr Picky, but that paragraph suggests explicitly to me that this paper found that both Luminol and TMB (Hemastix) equally sensitive (where "sensitive" is used here in the non-statistical meaning of dilution ratios).

Furthermore, while this paper uses Hemastix as the TMB test, the most appropriate form of TMB test - particularly when used following a Luminol positive - is the full two-part test (Hemastix combines both parts of the test onto the same test strip). The proper two-part TMB test (the one Stefanoni should have done) is considerably more specific (in both the statistical and colloquial sense) for blood than is Luminol. Therefore, a positive Luminol followed by a negative (for blood) 2-part TMB test indicates very strongly that the substance being tested is not blood. That's precisely why the 2-part TMB test is done in this scenario.

I had posted this one in 2010:

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=6436090#post6436090
 
The first paper (I think it is Nillsson) quotes Webb et al. finding that Luminol has “far the greatest sensitiveness”

“Webb et al. [22] conducted a study where the luminol test was compared to four other forensic blood tests. These tests where phenolphthalein, LMG, Hemastix (Bayer) and a forensic light source. The luminol test used was found to have by far the greatest sensitivity. Under laboratorial conditions CL was detected from luminol treated stains of the used hemoglobin solution (corresponding to blood) diluted up to 5•10 (6) times. A comparably high sensitivity of the luminol test has been reported in other studies [22].
However the sensitivity is probably not as great under the conditions found at a crime scene and here, depending on several factors, perhaps one may “only” see blood diluted to about 1:10000 [14]”.
 
Bill Williams said:
I, too, appreciate Machiavelli's honesty. He appears to actually believe the content of his posts.

Yet, what he believes is incredible. At one point Machiavelli said he could glean from her writings that she was immune from sleep deprivation issues. What is at stake there is that he believes she went into the Nov 5/6 interrogation ready and rested to pull the wool over the eyes of the investigators.

It's things like that which are troubling is if truly believes it, as well as the specific method by which he claims to have accumulated the belief.

The Man Who Whispers the Other Man's Opinion Re-writing it is back...

And yet, that is your opinion. It is telling that you responded with a non sequitor.
 
The first paper (I think it is Nillsson) quotes Webb et al. finding that Luminol has “far the greatest sensitiveness”

You are confusing sensitivity with selectivity.

Sensitivity of Luminol applies to EVERYTHING that luminol tests for.

It's just that luminol is not selective in what it is which it is testing for. A second, confirmatory test is needed, which selects for blood and blood products.
 
You are confusing sensitivity with selectivity.

Sensitivity of Luminol applies to EVERYTHING that luminol tests for.

It's just that luminol is not selective in what it is which it is testing for. A second, confirmatory test is needed, which selects for blood and blood products.

Luminol is both more sensitive and more selective than TMB.

The confirmatory test cannot be a TMB test.
 
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You can never be 100% sure of guilt. You yourself just argued that it is very improbable that somebody else was responsible. That is how I see reasonable doubt. How reasonable is it for somebody else to be involved. If is it very unlikely, you can convict in my opinion.

That is also why I am against the death penalty. Say we do find that somebody else actually was responsible, I can say sorry to him and the state can recompense him.

What I argue does not mean that you can convict somebody on a maybe such as Russ Faria for example (or Amanda or Raff.)
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All good points df, but what I'm saying about improbability is that it's not impossible for someone to kill someone without leaving evidence behind, but just because someone was there (to me anyway) doesn't prove he or she's the killer, nor would I convict someone of first degree (premeditated) murder on that alone. If you found the murder weapon on him or her and you could prove it, that would be different.

I guess I just have a different idea (than you) of what reasonable doubt means. For example, if someone confessed and then recanted, and since I know a lot about false confessions (and how possible they are), I would give the defendant a pass on the confession, especially one like Amanda's with no details about the murder what so ever.

My idea of reasonable doubt is different than yours, obviously, so you would not want me on a jury, if you were trying to convict someone of a crime, but you would definitely want me on your jury if you were ever charged with a crime that you didn't commit, which is probably why I've never been selected for a jury, but I have done mock juries and have been very successful in convincing others that my way of thinking was right.

Not everyone, but some,

d

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If Rudy got in the house another way and decided (for some stupid strange reason) he needed to break the window from the outside to make it look like that's how the killer (someone else) got in, wouldn't you say that was a staged break-in?
d

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Except the defense provided an analysis, and judge Hellman agreed, that a photo of a shoe print in blood had a glass fragment in it. And for this to happen, the window had to be broken first.

Amy, I do admire your creativity, but it really isn't fair to the people involved to just randomly speculate possibilities that aren't actually supported by evidence, or are precluded by evidence.

Rudy's footsteps in blood indicate he was there when Meredith was bleeding. According to Ron Hendry's analysis in IIP, the blood spray patterns on the walls indicate there was no one to block the blood spraying from Meredith's fresh wounds. Only one set of footprints in the room, Rudy's, only one set of palm prints, fingerprints, and so on. No trace of anyone else.

If another perp did the murder in a spacesuit, how would they have avoided not leaving any footprints on the bloody floor in that tiny room? It's just not plausible to suggest the crime was committed by anyone other than Rudy, and that he did it all by himself.

I'm sorry, I don't think that's just a matter of opinion. It is proven, and incontrovertible.
 
there wasn't any lemon juice

I read and commented on this paper some time ago. What this paper does is to (yet again) document that the use of a second presumptive test is commonplace: "It has also been customary to undertake a second confirmation test when using luminol." This paper also demonstrates that lemon juice will interfere with a TMB test. However, Comodi tells us that we can rule out fruit juice by common sense. It does not at all address two very serious problems in the present case, namely lack of Meredith's DNA and the lack of a true confirmatory test, one that is based on antibodies that recognize some unique component of blood. Nencini's conclusion is just as stupid as it ever was, and it cannot be rescued by means of citing a reference but not considering what the paper is actually saying.
 
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Except the defense provided an analysis, and judge Hellman agreed, that a photo of a shoe print in blood had a glass fragment in it. And for this to happen, the window had to be broken first.

Amy, I do admire your creativity, but it really isn't fair to the people involved to just randomly speculate possibilities that aren't actually supported by evidence, or are precluded by evidence.

Rudy's footsteps in blood indicate he was there when Meredith was bleeding. According to Ron Hendry's analysis in IIP, the blood spray patterns on the walls indicate there was no one to block the blood spraying from Meredith's fresh wounds. Only one set of footprints in the room, Rudy's, only one set of palm prints, fingerprints, and so on. No trace of anyone else.

If another perp did the murder in a spacesuit, how would they have avoided not leaving any footprints on the bloody floor in that tiny room? It's just not plausible to suggest the crime was committed by anyone other than Rudy, and that he did it all by himself.

I'm sorry, I don't think that's just a matter of opinion. It is proven, and incontrovertible.
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I never said Rudy didn't kill Meredith, I just said I don't see any evidence proving absolutely and definitely that he did. Besides, if it was proven absolutely and definitely, why in hell are Raffaele and Amanda still involved in this mess?

As far as fingerprints and DNA are concerned, it's why forensic scientist wear gloves and booties so they don't leave any behind themselves, or even footprints, are you saying all the footprints in the room have absolutely and definitely been proven to be Rudy's and there is no possibility what so ever that Rudy couldn't have possibly obscured the real killer's footprints, especially if you consider the fact that he said he went in the room after Meredith was killed?

Because if that's what you're saying, I disagree but that is just my opinion, and I guess we'll just have to disagree about all that,

d

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This post from LondonJohn from 2012 bears repeating.

LondonJohn said:
May I make a general point about the writings of the pro-guilt commentator Machiavelli/Yummi ("M/Y"), as I see them?

I believe that M/Y has little or no legal training, as (s)he clearly does not seem to grasp the fundamental tenet of criminal law: that the defendant be presumed innocent unless and until found guilty beyond all doubt based in human reason. I find it abundantly clear that M/Y has "analysed" this case backwards: (s)he has come to the conclusion that Knox and Sollecito are guilty, and has then interpreted all the evidence (and even invented evidence which doesn't exist) through that lens of guilt, in order to support his/her prior belief in guilt.

I would agree that some of the evidence is NOT INCONSISTENT with Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder, but that is totally irrelevant. The ONLY two points which are of direct relevance - both legally and ethically - are these:

1) There is no evidence that either Knox or Sollecito were involved in the murder, which cannot be reasonably explained in the context of non-guilt/innocence.

2) There is a totally reasonable and plausible explanation of the crime which purely involved Guede (of whom there WAS incontrovertible evidence of guilt), and POSSIBLY some other persons who remain unidentified.​

I repeat, these are the only two points that matter. The first point, in and of itself, is all that is required to acquit Knox and Sollecito. The second point only serves to reinforce the first point, and adds further to any belief that Knox/Sollecito are both totally uninvolved in the crime. I would, however, also like to repeat that it is logically IMPOSSIBLE to declare someone "innocent" of any given crime, unless that person has a cast-iron, unimpeachable alibi. There is, for example, no way that I could ever be declared "innocent" of the late-night assault that took place two nights ago a few miles away from where I live - I was at home alone that night, and cannot provide a cast-iron alibi for the time of the crime. Suppose that the attacker was wearing a black baseball hat and black sweater, and was of my general height and build. Suppose the police searched my apartment and found a black sweater and baseball hat. In that case, the fact that the attacker was reported to be wearing these items would be CONSISTENT with me being the attacker. However, my lawyer would correctly assert that these are somewhat common items for an adult male to own, and that they in no way constitute solid evidence against me in particular.

In the Kercher case, there are many pieces of evidence which fit the above pattern - that is to say, they may be CONSISTENT with Knox/Sollecito being involved in the murder, but there is a totally reasonable alternative explanation that is consistent with non-guilt/innocence. M/Y seems to believe (or simply want others to believe...?) that "is consistent with" equates to "proves that" - this is simply not the case, either legally or ethically.

Oh, and all the psychology stuff about "killers wanting to direct the investigation" etc might have some limited validity, but M/Y needs to understand that they do not constitute any sort of proof whatsoever. They are often useful in directing police towards suspects, but they could never, ever be used to convict anyone of a crime. These sorts of "soft" factors are often spectacularly wrong: here in the UK, the Rachel Nickell murder was a classic case in point, where an eminent (up to that point!) criminal psychologist confirmed the police's suspicions about a particular suspect (Colin Stagg) to the point where he was charged with the murder, despite there being no proper hard evidence against him. The judge quite correctly threw the case out of court and strongly criticised the police investigation, and it turned out that he had had nothing whatsoever to do with the murder: crime scene semen DNA later proved that a totally different man was the killer. Likewise, the FBI produced a criminal profile for the Washington sniper that turned out to be wrong in almost every respect, and which actively prolonged the killing spree by the real two assailants.

The only things that can convict someone beyond a reasonable doubt are proper pieces of evidence which cannot be explained by the defendants in a way that is reasonable and consistent with non-guilt. In Guede's case, for example, his DNA and palm print was matched conclusively at the crime scene, and his faeces was found in the toilet. He could not provide a good explanation of why he was in the girls' cottage at all: his fable about being invited in for sex by Meredith was a disgusting lie. Furthermore, his fable about "discovering" Merdith dying and trying to help her is utterly inconsistent with his provable failure to notify the emergency services, his provable, nonchalant behaviour after the crime, and his provable flight to Germany within 48 hours. So there is easily enough to convict him of the murder. The same simply CANNOT be said for Knox and Sollecito, and what's more, there is every reason to believe that neither of them had anything to do with the murder.

Lastly, as a small point of clarification, there was a discussion of Meredith's phones above where M/Y asserted that neither phone was switched off. This is not the case. The Italian Vodafone phone WAS switched off at the time it was found in Sig.ra Lana's garden, but the UK phone was left switched on. The Italian phone was found by sight (it had landed on the open lawn), whereas the UK phone had landed in shubbery and was only found when it was heard ringing (almost certainly from one of Knox's calls to the handset - good way to delay discovery by the vicious sex killer Knox, eh?!).​
 
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Luminol is both more sensitive and more selective than TMB.

The confirmatory test cannot be a TMB test.

Agreed Machiavelli, TMB is not a confirmatory test. Tell us about the confirmatory test that was used.

How do you justify coming to a positive conclusion in the absence of any confirmatory test and a negative TMB test? Also, please tell all us laymen out here why most forensic techs (including Stefanoni) use TMB as a secondary presumptive test after Luminol? Are all these techs and forensic manuals wrong? (This is a serious question Mach...don't dodge it).
 
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Agreed on both points. Your opinion is something which was merely repeated.

Are you backing away from what you said?

You do not repeat my opinion, unless you paste it. Apparently what you do is you interpret my opinon (and others'), you select only something from it (a word, a theme, etc.) only a tiny bit of your interest with a scissor work, cutting away amounts of something else, further meanings and possible all the rest, then you change the bit or crook it (elaborate it with some inference of yours, add some word and meaning of yours etc.) and re-frame it (into some statement or slogan).
 
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I never said Rudy didn't kill Meredith, I just said I don't see any evidence proving absolutely and definitely that he did. Besides, if it was proven absolutely and definitely, why in hell are Raffaele and Amanda still involved in this mess?
As far as fingerprints and DNA are concerned, it's why forensic scientist wear gloves and booties so they don't leave any behind themselves, or even footprints, are you saying all the footprints in the room have absolutely and definitely been proven to be Rudy's and there is no possibility what so ever that Rudy couldn't have possibly obscured the real killer's footprints, especially if you consider the fact that he said he went in the room after Meredith was killed?

Because if that's what you're saying, I disagree but that is just my opinion, and I guess we'll just have to disagree about all that,

d

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1st highlight - Well that really is the question, isn't it? No good legitimate reason at all that I can see. I think that's where the outrage comes from.

2nd highlight - Yes. Here's an experiment. Take a plain white paper plate and sprinkle some ketchup on it. No press your thumb into a puddle of the ketchup. Now try to erase your thumb print. Now imagine trying to do that with footprints in blood at a bloody murder scene you just happen to innocently have stumbled upon. Now look in a mirror, and describe this scenario, out loud, without laughing.

3rd highlite - as you wish.
 
I read and commented on this paper some time ago. What this paper does is to (yet again) document that the use of a second presumptive test is commonplace: "It has also been customary to undertake a second confirmation test when using luminol." This paper also demonstrates that lemon juice will interfere with a TMB test. However, Comodi tells us that we can rule out fruit juice by common sense. It does not at all address two very serious problems in the present case, namely lack of Meredith's DNA and the lack of a true confirmatory test, one that is based on antibodies that recognize some unique component of blood. Nencini's conclusion is just as stupid as it ever was, and it cannot be rescued by means of citing a reference but not considering what the paper is actually saying.

I think the point of the article, that I admittedly haven't been able to read, is that confirmatory tests are used to determine absolute certainty a substance is blood. Makes total sense in a scientific view.

But a jury/judge panel, in the legal arena, is inherently less interested in absolute certainty. They are interested in the probablilites of luminol hits coming from blood as opposed to other sources.

In most cases, luminol dredges up blood from crime scenes where there isn't any visible blood. In this case, there was a copious amount of blood 10 feet from the luminol hits.

If you have any cases to cite of luminol hits being being attributed to minerals or vegetables 10 feet from a dead body, please cite them.
 
More speculation...

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LondonJohn said:
May I make a general point about the writings of the pro-guilt commentator Machiavelli/Yummi ("M/Y"), as I see them?

I believe that M/Y has little or no legal training, as (s)he clearly does not seem to grasp the fundamental tenet of criminal law: that the defendant be presumed innocent unless and until found guilty beyond all doubt based in human reason. I find it abundantly clear that M/Y has "analysed" this case backwards: (s)he has come to the conclusion that Knox and Sollecito are guilty, and has then interpreted all the evidence (and even invented evidence which doesn't exist) through that lens of guilt, in order to support his/her prior belief in guilt.

I would agree that some of the evidence is NOT INCONSISTENT with Knox and Sollecito being involved in the murder, but that is totally irrelevant. The ONLY two points which are of direct relevance - both legally and ethically - are these:

1) There is no evidence that either Knox or Sollecito were involved in the murder, which cannot be reasonably explained in the context of non-guilt/innocence.

2) There is a totally reasonable and plausible explanation of the crime which purely involved Guede (of whom there WAS incontrovertible evidence of guilt), and POSSIBLY some other persons who remain unidentified.

I repeat, these are the only two points that matter. The first point, in and of itself, is all that is required to acquit Knox and Sollecito. The second point only serves to reinforce the first point, and adds further to any belief that Knox/Sollecito are both totally uninvolved in the crime. I would, however, also like to repeat that it is logically IMPOSSIBLE to declare someone "innocent" of any given crime, unless that person has a cast-iron, unimpeachable alibi. There is, for example, no way that I could ever be declared "innocent" of the late-night assault that took place two nights ago a few miles away from where I live - I was at home alone that night, and cannot provide a cast-iron alibi for the time of the crime. Suppose that the attacker was wearing a black baseball hat and black sweater, and was of my general height and build. Suppose the police searched my apartment and found a black sweater and baseball hat. In that case, the fact that the attacker was reported to be wearing these items would be CONSISTENT with me being the attacker. However, my lawyer would correctly assert that these are somewhat common items for an adult male to own, and that they in no way constitute solid evidence against me in particular.

In the Kercher case, there are many pieces of evidence which fit the above pattern - that is to say, they may be CONSISTENT with Knox/Sollecito being involved in the murder, but there is a totally reasonable alternative explanation that is consistent with non-guilt/innocence. M/Y seems to believe (or simply want others to believe...?) that "is consistent with" equates to "proves that" - this is simply not the case, either legally or ethically.

Oh, and all the psychology stuff about "killers wanting to direct the investigation" etc might have some limited validity, but M/Y needs to understand that they do not constitute any sort of proof whatsoever. They are often useful in directing police towards suspects, but they could never, ever be used to convict anyone of a crime. These sorts of "soft" factors are often spectacularly wrong: here in the UK, the Rachel Nickell murder was a classic case in point, where an eminent (up to that point!) criminal psychologist confirmed the police's suspicions about a particular suspect (Colin Stagg) to the point where he was charged with the murder, despite there being no proper hard evidence against him. The judge quite correctly threw the case out of court and strongly criticised the police investigation, and it turned out that he had had nothing whatsoever to do with the murder: crime scene semen DNA later proved that a totally different man was the killer. Likewise, the FBI produced a criminal profile for the Washington sniper that turned out to be wrong in almost every respect, and which actively prolonged the killing spree by the real two assailants.

The only things that can convict someone beyond a reasonable doubt are proper pieces of evidence which cannot be explained by the defendants in a way that is reasonable and consistent with non-guilt. In Guede's case, for example, his DNA and palm print was matched conclusively at the crime scene, and his faeces was found in the toilet. He could not provide a good explanation of why he was in the girls' cottage at all: his fable about being invited in for sex by Meredith was a disgusting lie. Furthermore, his fable about "discovering" Merdith dying and trying to help her is utterly inconsistent with his provable failure to notify the emergency services, his provable, nonchalant behaviour after the crime, and his provable flight to Germany within 48 hours. So there is easily enough to convict him of the murder. The same simply CANNOT be said for Knox and Sollecito, and what's more, there is every reason to believe that neither of them had anything to do with the murder.

Lastly, as a small point of clarification, there was a discussion of Meredith's phones above where M/Y asserted that neither phone was switched off. This is not the case. The Italian Vodafone phone WAS switched off at the time it was found in Sig.ra Lana's garden, but the UK phone was left switched on. The Italian phone was found by sight (it had landed on the open lawn), whereas the UK phone had landed in shubbery and was only found when it was heard ringing (almost certainly from one of Knox's calls to the handset - good way to delay discovery by the vicious sex killer Knox, eh?!).
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Although I agree with a lot of what LondonJohn wrote above in 2012, I can't really say that the hilited part was totally a lie and maybe after breaking the window (with the shutter swinging back enough so it wasn't noticeable), Meredith came home and he asked her if he could use the bathroom, and she agreed and invited him in for that purpose and only that purpose.

He was the last to go in behind Meredith and didn't close the door correctly and the killer got in a few minutes after that.

That is all just pure and unadulterated speculation, but regardless of that, there is still way more evidence that Rudy killed Meredith than there is that Raffaele and Amanda did, and this is all still just my opinion,

d

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