UKIP win Clacton by-election by a landslide

[MikeG]

Ukip have their first MP. BBC

Douglas Carswell, Conservative defector, won Clacton easily last night. They also came damned close in Lancashire.

Along with topping the popular vote in the European elections recently, this is a huge breakthrough for them, and a nightmare for the Conservatives. In my view, the chances of a Labour government at the next election, despite Milliband, just rose significantly. I despair at the prospect of the economically illiterate Labour party returning to power so soon after the catastrophic mess they left 4 years ago. I despair at the prospect of the Tories moving further to the right to counter the Ukip threat. I despair of Ukip, who are anti-everything, especially anti-science, getting involved in determining the direction this country goes. I despair for the fate of the Lib Dems.

If Labour are smart, they'll offer to match the Tory promise of an in-out referendum on Europe, because the prospect of that is the Tories main counter to Ukip. But then, Labour aren't often smart.....

 

[GlennB]

I despair of the prospect of an in/out referendum on Europe where the vote might be 'out'. Man, that would royally screw things up and with the country veering UKIP-wards such a vote wouldn't totally surprise me.

 

[psionl0]

I despair at the prospect of the economically illiterate Labour party returning to power so soon after the catastrophic mess they left 4 years ago.

That's what happens under a FPTP voting system.

If votes for the Tories leak to UKIP then the minority Labour candidate will win the seat without gaining a single vote.

 

[Craig B]

If Labour are smart, they'll offer to match the Tory promise of an in-out referendum on Europe, because the prospect of that is the Tories main counter to Ukip. But then, Labour aren't often smart.....

They're as smart as the Tories, which isn't saying much. Just maybe they're motivated by principle and won't turn totally xenophobic in order to outdo UKIP and pick up the right wing vote. But I'm not at all confident about that. We'll see. At all events they held their own seat, if only by a terrifyingly tiny margin.

If you want an example of not being smart, what about the Lib Dems? Their coalition with the Tories seems to have cost them dearly.

 

[The Don]

I too am worried about an in/out referendum. It's very easy to present a caricature of the case against the E.U. and much more difficult to present the case for without getting into the kind of detail which makes you sound boring and/or hectoring.

I worry that there is a significant minority of the U.K. population who would vote to leave the E.U. if they thought that they might get duty free back when they go to Europe on a booze cruise. I have a specific interest in Europe, the majority of my business' turnover comes from Europe and my clients have been quite clear that if the U.K. was to leave the E.U. they wouldn't be able to do business with me any more.

A lot of UKIP supporters are xenophobic (a UKIP supporter interviewed on radio this morning complained that all the foreigners are coming over here to not work and claim benefits and then when it was highlighted that they are here to work, claiming that they're here to take our jobs - they can't have it both ways) and the UK feels like they're on the cusp of a lurch towards extremism (both ways).

 

[MikeG]

...... the UK feels like they're on the cusp of a lurch towards extremism (both ways).

Absolutely, and it's not a pretty thing.

Maybe the problem is that the coalition government has been so obviously centrist, non-extreme, managerial, efficient but uninspiring. I've said before that this government sits just about exactly where my politics is......economically conservative, socially liberal. Maybe that is just too bland for people, and we're headed back to the 70's with extreme right Vs extreme left.

 

[Craig B]

Absolutely, and it's not a pretty thing.

Maybe the problem is that the coalition government has been so obviously centrist, non-extreme, managerial, efficient but uninspiring. I've said before that this government sits just about exactly where my politics is......economically conservative, socially liberal. Maybe that is just too bland for people, and we're headed back to the 70's with extreme right Vs extreme left.

The Left don't perceive this government as you do. They see austerity, privatisation. But I agree that the Lib Con administration has not been extreme right racist. Maybe the Liberals have been influential there. UKIP is economically extreme right as well as racist and xenophobic. It is bad in every field. However, there is absolutely no prospect of Labour lurching to the extreme left. The fear is that it will follow UKIP towards the right to pick up the votes of disaffected working class Tories.

 

[andyandy]

The result in Lancashire was really close - what's interesting is that the protest vote (typical for by-elections) is going against both Labour and the Tories (and well the Lib Dems are all but sunk....).

Is it getting to the stage where we could expect UKIP to be forming the 3rd largest party in westminster at the next elections? That would have been inconceivable only a couple of years ago - now it looks possible....

re the Euros - if the Tories win (say at least 50% chance) then I'd give it an 80% plus chance of an out vote - so that would give odds of 40% on Britain leaving the Euro. I wonder how the markets (i.e people who actually know some real data to base their stats on) are pricing it...?

 

[commandlinegamer]

The Left don't perceive this government as you do. They see austerity, privatisation.

Quite. Where was the spare room subsidy [sic], before this crowd came along? The privatisation of everything that isn't nailed down is nothing new, though.

 

[The Don]

Absolutely, and it's not a pretty thing.

Maybe the problem is that the coalition government has been so obviously centrist, non-extreme, managerial, efficient but uninspiring. I've said before that this government sits just about exactly where my politics is......economically conservative, socially liberal. Maybe that is just too bland for people, and we're headed back to the 70's with extreme right Vs extreme left.

The Left don't perceive this government as you do. They see austerity, privatisation. But I agree that the Lib Con administration has not been extreme right racist. Maybe the Liberals have been influential there. UKIP is economically extreme right as well as racist and xenophobic. It is bad in every field. However, there is absolutely no prospect of Labour lurching to the extreme left. The fear is that it will follow UKIP towards the right to pick up the votes of disaffected working class Tories.

I should have clearer, the extremism I'm anticipating isn't left-wing extremism, at least not by the standards of earlier this century. I see little appetite for the central ownership of the means of production (old clause 4) or indeed to the "eat the rich" politics of the 70's and 80's. Mainstream politics has become middle of the road because the majority of the population has become, IMO, homogeneously comparatively well off and obsessively materialistic (I include myself in that number). Most of the big battles for basic human rights were fought and won over 50 years ago.

Excitement in politics now seems to come from single issues (fox hunting pro and con, fat cats and local issues) or from the groups of what I'd term extremists which seem to include:

• Xenophobes like UKIP
• Regional parties like SNP and Plaid Cymru (whose policies may not be extreme per-se but whose objective of independence is not currently a majority opinion in the UK as a whole)
• Nihilists like the occupy movement who are not entirely sure what they want but it's not this
• Religious extremists, I antipate the rise of Christian and Islamic fundamentalist parties in response to perceived godless liberality and xenopobia respectively

I just hope the rise of UKIP doesn't result in us cutting off our noses to spite our faces. I have specific personal financial reasons to be Europhile (outlined above) but I genuinely think that being part of the E.U. has been positive in a million tiny ways that will be tiresomely tedious to explain to the population at large where the "benefits" of leaving the E.U. can be explained in simple dog-whistle terms.

For sure the Nissan plant in County Durham (and probably the Toyota plant in Derbyshire and the Honda plant in Swindon) will be at risk, and all the supply chain jobs that go with them, but explaining this is apparently just being alarmist.

 

[Craig B]

Regional parties like SNP and Plaid Cymru (whose policies may not be extreme per-se but whose objective of independence is not currently a majority opinion in the UK as a whole)

It can hardly be the opinion of the people of the UK as a whole unless you think that Scotland must remain in the condition decided upon by the majority of the population of England, which knows nothing about Scotland, in general. And there is a huge, transcendental, distinction between "extreme" and "not currently a majority opinion in the UK as a whole".

Now, the people of the UK have a right to vote to leave the EU (though I don't think they should). You are in effect saying that unless the majority of the population of the whole EU agrees to the UK leaving, it should be obliged to remain. That would be tyrannical.

And you did refer to extreme right v extreme left. I can't imagine that the SNP meets any reasonable criterion of extreme left, though UKIP may well be extreme right.

 

[The Don]

I'm not sure whether you read what I wrote or what you thought that I wrote...

It can hardly be the opinion of the people of the UK as a whole unless you think that Scotland must remain in the condition decided upon by the majority of the population of England, which knows nothing about Scotland, in general. And there is a huge, transcendental, distinction between "extreme" and "not currently a majority opinion in the UK as a whole".

I have stated no opinion about whether Scottish independence is a matter for Scottish voters or whether it is a matter for the UK population in general. Neither will I on the grounds that following the recent vote, the matter will not come up for some time.

What I did say is that within the context of the UK population as a whole, the Scottish and Welsh independence movements are minority views and therefore represent an extreme.

Now, the people of the UK have a right to vote to leave the EU (though I don't think they should). You are in effect saying that unless the majority of the population of the whole EU agrees to the UK leaving, it should be obliged to remain. That would be tyrannical.

I have said nothing of the sort.

And you did refer to extreme right v extreme left. I can't imagine that the SNP meets any reasonable criterion of extreme left, though UKIP may well be extreme right.

I have never made any claims that the SNP is an extreme left wing party. If I have then please show me where and i'll happily concede the point.

I have explicitly stated that IMO the extreme left wing is a spent force and so by inference if the SNP isn't a spent force then it isn't an extreme left wing party.

 

[Information Analyst]

I worry that there is a significant minority of the U.K. population who would vote to leave the E.U. if they thought that they might get duty free back when they go to Europe on a booze cruise.

Sadly true, even though the current duty free limits are possitively paltry in comparison to the "unlimited" amount allowed by EU rules.

 

[Information Analyst]

I have specific personal financial reasons to be Europhile (outlined above) but I genuinely think that being part of the E.U. has been positive in a million tiny ways that will be tiresomely tedious to explain to the population at large where the "benefits" of leaving the E.U. can be explained in simple dog-whistle terms.

I think the simple fact is that most people haven't got a clue what the EU does, and instead react only to a relatively tiny number of perceived negative aspects.

 

[Craig B]

I have explicitly stated that IMO the extreme left wing is a spent force

Well, you did say this, and it seems to state otherwise.

Maybe that is just too bland for people, and we're headed back to the 70's with extreme right Vs extreme left.

If the extreme left is a spent force, then we can't possibly go back to that situation. But if your expression means something different, then that's fine. I think it reads at first sight as if you think that the extreme left, as well as the extreme right, represents a danger, and that's what I was commenting on.

 

[The Don]

Well, you did say this, and it seems to state otherwise. If the extreme left is a spent force, then we can't possibly go back to that situation. But if your expression means something different, then that's fine. I think it reads at first sight as if you think that the extreme left, as well as the extreme right, represents a danger, and that's what I was commenting on.

No I didn't, MikeG did - I did quote that and directly disagree with it.

I see no reason why you have to lie about what I have said.

 

[Craig B]

No I didn't, MikeG did - I did quote that and directly disagree with it.

I see no reason why you have to lie about what I have said.

I apologise both to you and Mike G for this mistake. I have no reason to lie about what you said. Why should I? I didn't; I simply misattributed something to you, which is a very different thing, and I am sorry for this error.

 

[lionking]

Any chance of the Green Party becoming a nuisance and picking up more seats?

 

[Skepticemea]

Any chance of the Green Party becoming a nuisance and picking up more seats?

Unlikely. I think Lucas may even lose her Brighton seat if the vote continues to be fractured.

 

[MikeG]

........so that would give odds of 40% on Britain leaving the Euro. ......?

I'm sure we all know that you mean the EU, but just for non European members of the forum, obviously Britain isn't a member of the Euro-zone (those countries using the Euro as currency).