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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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carbonjam72 said:
I don't like to imagine ISC will confirm the convictions. but suppose ISC does confirm, And ECHR does find in favor of Amanda and Raf. What happens to the civi judgement? When does that get paid, and would Raf have to sue for a clawback?
Click to expand...

I don't know about Italy, but good luck enforcing that judgment in the US.
 
early versus late TOD

lonepinealex said:
Did either of the defendants bring up the gastric evidence in any of the trials or in their appeals?
Click to expand...
lonepinealex,

The prosecution changed the TOD in the trial of first instance, moving it later by at least an hour in their closing remarks. I think that this caught the defense off-guard. My recollection is that at least one of Raffaele's appeals did address this issue, and I wish that both defense teams had argued the point forcefully in Florence. Not just the stomach contents, but every objective piece of evidence independently points to an early TOD.

However, it is doubtful that Judge Nencini would have paid attention. He seems intent on taking his marching orders only from the SCC, and they have some very strange ideas about the TOD.
 
Chris_Halkides said:
lonepinealex,

The prosecution changed the TOD in the trial of first instance, moving it later by at least an hour in their closing remarks. I think that this caught the defense off-guard. My recollection is that at least one of Raffaele's appeals did address this issue, and I wish that both defense teams had argued the point forcefully in Florence. Not just the stomach contents, but every objective piece of evidence independently points to an early TOD.

However, it is doubtful that Judge Nencini would have paid attention. He seems intent on taking his marching orders only from the SCC, and they have some very strange ideas about the TOD.
Click to expand...


Yes, which is why I find it strange that the stomach contents stuff doesn't seem to be a big part of the new appeals, given that several people in this thread find it such compelling proof of evidence. Why would the defence not push that if it's so good?
 
lonepinealex said:
Yes, which is why I find it strange that the stomach contents stuff doesn't seem to be a big part of the new appeals, given that several people in this thread find it such compelling proof of evidence. Why would the defence not push that if it's so good?
Click to expand...

I might be wrong on this, but I think Nencini doesn't provide any kind of firm timeline for time of death? Is that right?

I don't believe Nencini's opinion is serious. I don't think he really believes they are guilty, I think he is just complying with the verdict he thinks he was instructed to return by the SCC reversal of Hellman.

Evidence and truth just seem like secondary concerns when finding guilt for AK/RS in this case.
 
Judge Nencini favored a late TOD

lonepinealex said:
Yes, which is why I find it strange that the stomach contents stuff doesn't seem to be a big part of the new appeals, given that several people in this thread find it such compelling proof of evidence. Why would the defence not push that if it's so good?
Click to expand...
I don’t believe it mattered what arguments the defense offered to Judge Nencini. He turned up additional exculpatory evidence, but convicted the pair anyway. Based on a conversation I had with someone who speaks Italian, I think Nencini was not very precise but still favored a late TOD.

One point about the TOD arguments that should be stressed is that they exist independently of each other. For argument’s sake let us assume that there is a 20% chance that PI commenters are wrong about the decisiveness of the empty duodenum, wrong about the inference that the cell phones had left the house, and wrong about the inference that Meredith would have sent emails, called her mother, or done other activities after returning home. If so, then there is a 0.20^3 = 0.008 = 0.8% chance that Meredith’s TOD was late, not early.
EDT
The numbers above are purely for the purposes of illustration.
 
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Chris_Halkides said:
I don’t believe it mattered what arguments the defense offered to Judge Nencini. He turned up additional exculpatory evidence, but convicted the pair anyway. Based on a conversation I had with someone who speaks Italian, I think Nencini was not very precise but still favored a late TOD.

One point about the TOD arguments that should be stressed is that they exist independently of each other. For argument’s sake let us assume that there is a 20% chance that PI commenters are wrong about the decisiveness of the empty duodenum, wrong about the inference that the cell phones had left the house, and wrong about the inference that Meredith would have sent emails, called her mother, or done other activities after returning home. If so, then there is a 0.20^3 = 0.008 = 0.8% chance that Meredith’s TOD was late, not early.
Click to expand...

While jury trials do not have to publish something which is effect a "motivation" document, when higher courts rule, they do have to list their reasoning behind in in the US. With as much of a mess as his document is, do you think a higher court would accept it?
 
lonepinealex said:
Yes, which is why I find it strange that the stomach contents stuff doesn't seem to be a big part of the new appeals, given that several people in this thread find it such compelling proof of evidence. Why would the defence not push that if it's so good?
Click to expand...

As others have said, the prosecution created a sort of moving target in terms of their story about how and when and why the crime happened. When any of their bizarre theories was examined too narrowly, they simply shifted to explain that there was a lot of variation in this particular parameter, and anyway it was only one small piece of a much larger picture.

For example, you'll find guilters willing to tell you that the reason no part of MK's last meal had left her stomach by their preferred TOD (after 10 pm) is that her digestion stopped when Amanda and Raffaele and Guede started torturing her.

To them, it makes sense to take a wildly improbably conjecture and move swiftly from "it could have been like this" to "it was like this."

The defense can't force the judge or the paid, tv-watching jurors to focus.
 
lonepinealex said:
What does that mean? What I want to know is - if the gastric emptying evidence is such a slam-dunk, presumably the defence has used it? If not, why not?
Click to expand...
Sorry lonepinealex, it was late, I was thinking of defence autopsy specialist Introna. He simply did not research the gastric evidence.
In fact one has to work backwards. What we know is that Rudy was in the house when Meredith arrived home at 9pm, because there is no other way to interpret the forensics of the break in. Once the proof of the rock thrown from the car park is accepted, and this is defined by the shutter damage and glass impalement and so on, we know that this could not occur after Meredith arrived home.
Much is made of stress delaying digestion by guilters, and if this is correct, digestion ceased at 9pm. But the guilters use this stress to imply that it ceased when she was attacked by Amanda, to delay the TOD. In fact, the perfect logic is that digestion ceased at 9pm when Meredith found an intruder. This is the only way to interpret the autopsy. Meal commencement is variously described as 5 30, 6, or 6 30. In fact none of these times can be correct, because she had no stress until 9 pm, and therefore it is almost impossible she ate before 7 30pm. The research on gastric emptying is very easy to undertake, but I like the Mercy hospital study that stops after two hours, because if nothing has happened it is case closed, medical problems, which Meredith did not have.

http://mercymedicalcenter.chsli.org/gastric-empty-study

To summarise, it is best to assume she ate at 7 30, and digestion stopped when stressed by Rudy at 9, not Amanda much later.

It is also very common to be confronted with stomach emptying taking two to four hours, which gives the flexibilty needed by the prosecution. This is such a bare faced and wilfull nonsense it should never have gained traction. Stomach emptying never takes two hours to commence, but it does take two to four hours to be complete. If we think about this it would have been completely statistically normal for her stomach to be completely empty at 9 pm with a meal time of 7 pm. The converse, the stomach completely full, is near impossible.

The guilters tie themselves in knots, to the extent that they suggest the pizza was completely passed beyond the duodenum, while the desert was still in stomach. But in fact the pizza and desert were mixed and identifiable, comprising the 500 mil stomach contents.

Here is a post from RandyN who was an army pathologist I believe.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9679112&postcount=9084
 
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This thread never stops giving.

Chris_Halkides said:
I don’t believe it mattered what arguments the defense offered to Judge Nencini. He turned up additional exculpatory evidence, but convicted the pair anyway. Based on a conversation I had with someone who speaks Italian, I think Nencini was not very precise but still favored a late TOD.

One point about the TOD arguments that should be stressed is that they exist independently of each other. For argument’s sake let us assume that there is a 20% chance that PI commenters are wrong about the decisiveness of the empty duodenum, wrong about the inference that the cell phones had left the house, and wrong about the inference that Meredith would have sent emails, called her mother, or done other activities after returning home. If so, then there is a 0.20^3 = 0.008 = 0.8% chance that Meredith’s TOD was late, not early.
EDT
The numbers above are purely for the purposes of illustration.
Click to expand...


I'm not sure I agree with you a 100% on your maths work there, halides1 :)

Do you want to show your workings so that us less numerate types can follow the argument.

Or failing that add 25% or 187% to make it work.


EDT
The numbers above certainly provide a certain level of illustration.
 
There's more.

Chris_Halkides said:
lonepinealex,

The prosecution changed the TOD in the trial of first instance, moving it later by at least an hour in their closing remarks. I think that this caught the defense off-guard. My recollection is that at least one of Raffaele's appeals did address this issue, and I wish that both defense teams had argued the point forcefully in Florence. Not just the stomach contents, but every objective piece of evidence independently points to an early TOD.

However, it is doubtful that Judge Nencini would have paid attention. He seems intent on taking his marching orders only from the SCC, and they have some very strange ideas about the TOD.
Click to expand...


Given that you are good with numbers, why don’t you tell the uninitiated what the ToD range the defence lawyers put forward in the 1st trial was ? - Which presumably they arrived at after they had taken into account all their own expert witness evidence.
 
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an easy calculation

platonov said:
I'm not sure I agree with you a 100% on your maths work there, halides1 :)
Click to expand...
platonov,

You are pretty good at research. For the uninitiated, why don't you dig up the post[s?] where you accused me of mendacity. That way everyone can calculate the odds of my doing your homework for you.
 
RWVBWL said:
MichaelB said:
I was just reading the translated testimony of Marco Chiacchiera at the ballerina stalkers site and something caught my eye.

I've seen so many guilters say: "There's no way Amanda had a shower on November 2, just look at the photo of her."

[qimg]http://media.komonews.com/images/080517_amanda_knox.jpg[/qimg]

Chiacchiera confirms she did have a shower although it's a little strange why he doesn't want to say how he knows.

Here's the testimony. I've removed the bizarre commentary from pseudo lawyer/doctor "CardiolMD" after every Q&A.

MC: However the faeces were in which of the two bathrooms?
MaCh: Of the bathrooms. Me, if I take a shower in a bathroom where there are faeces, instinctively I flush the toilet, in short.
MC: Yes, but the faeces were in the other bathroom.
MaCh: Yes, yes, I understood. However, in short, in some way it comes instinctively, no?, to flush the toilet? The fact is that ….
GCM: Excuse me, do you know how many bathrooms there were in the house?
MaCh: Two.
GCM: Two bathrooms. Excuse me, please. Do you know that a shower was taken?
MaCh: Yes.
GCM: How do you know?
MaCh: I know because it is a thing that I cannot, I believe, report because it was ….
GCM: But you checked…?
MaCh: I am trying to be very very careful.
Click to expand...


Any guesses why this is top secret and he doesn't want to say?
Click to expand...


Hmmmm,
interesting find MichaelB.

My guess?
It involves Rudy Guede's crap.
Guede might have been inside the flat when Amanda came home in the morning.

The front door was wide open when she came home.
She saw feces in Filomena+Laura's bathroom toilet after she took her shower.
When she came back with Raff, they had fallen farther and she did not see them, causing her to wonder if someone had been in the house when she was there, IIRC

If the feces were over 12 hours old,
why would they, by then crusty, fall farther downward in the short time that Amanda was at Raffaele's after her shower? I've seen the crime scene video, that ain't a lotta ****.


Maybe Rudy Guede came back after leaving The Domus nightclub and slept downstairs on Stefano's bed, that bedspread of his is the only 1 that is not made, out of all the boyz beds whom lived downstairs.

Kind of similar to up stairs,
Meredith's is the only bed messed up too.
Heck, Stefano's bed is the only one that has blood on it. Meredith's also.

Connected or coincidence?


I'd really like to read a transcript of the 7 hour long 1st interrogation
http://web.archive.org/web/20080117...t.com/2007/12/theres-non-name-to-be-done.html
that Rudy Guede had with PM Mignini, Judge Matteini and others when he was returned to Italy.

Why has this not been released?
What Top Secrets are they hiding that Rudy told them over 7 hours?
Click to expand...
.
MichaelB: Great find .

RWVBWL: I had similar thoughts as you although I am not so sure about Rudy being the answer.

I do not understand how MaChi could 'know' Amanda showered without actually having eyes and/or ears, human and/or electronic in the cottage while Amanda was showering.

MaChi's testimony clearly demonstrates the police were deliberately not disclosing all the information they had about this issue. What were they hiding and why were they hiding it. Did Raffaele and Amanda's lawyers pursue this? It seems very strange to me if they did not.

There are many scenarios where the Postal Police could have learned of Meredith's murder before Raffaele and Amanda arrived at the cottage.

Were the police monitoring the cottage that morning? The morning Amanda had the intuition that someone was in the cottage? That morning Amanda returned to the cottage, took a shower, and then returned to Raffaele's with a mop for cleaning the plumbing leak at his apartment. On the face of it that would certainly seem suspicious and might have put the Postal Police focus on Amanda. Is this what started the cleanup meme? Is this what set the police on the wrong track? Did they think they had inside information? Information that could make them look very good when they used it to solve the crime. Information that perhaps they did not even disclose to the Carabiniere police?

Was it just a coincidence that the night of the murder the Postal Police were searching the very property where Meredith's stolen cell phones were found the next day?

Was it just a coincidence that not long after that search there were at least two, and possibly three cars parked in or opposite the driveway of the cottage where Meredith's dead body lay.

Was it just coincidence that soon after Raffaele telephoned the Carabiniere, a Postal Police inspector showed up at the cottage before the Carabiniere police could respond?

Was it just an oversight that the Postal Police Inspector claims to have not checked to see if the foot sticking out from under the duvet belonged to a live person in need of help?

Was it just a coincidence that CCTV videos in the area that would have shown vehicle activity were discarded by the Postal Police before they could be viewed.

One other odd thought just occurred to me. I believe there was information leaked about the washing machine still being warm when the police arrived. Was this true, but inadvertently leaked? In other words, was the washing machine still warm when the Police arrived the night before?

And another one. Who did leave and lock Amanda's lamp in Meredith's room? Rudy or the Postal Police.

And another one. Did the police not bother to check Aviello's story about knowing the location of Meredith's keys because they already had them?

"I am trying to be very very careful"
Cody

BTW, here is an interesting tidbit. Apparently MaChi is a bit of a thespian and enjoys Shakespeare.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i1VtPZTY1k (starting about 2:33).

Bravo!
.
 
Samson said:
Sorry lonepinealex, it was late, I was thinking of defence autopsy specialist Introna. He simply did not research the gastric evidence.
In fact one has to work backwards. What we know is that Rudy was in the house when Meredith arrived home at 9pm, because there is no other way to interpret the forensics of the break in. Once the proof of the rock thrown from the car park is accepted, and this is defined by the shutter damage and glass impalement and so on, we know that this could not occur after Meredith arrived home.
Much is made of stress delaying digestion by guilters, and if this is correct, digestion ceased at 9pm. But the guilters use this stress to imply that it ceased when she was attacked by Amanda, to delay the TOD. In fact, the perfect logic is that digestion ceased at 9pm when Meredith found an intruder. This is the only way to interpret the autopsy. Meal commencement is variously described as 5 30, 6, or 6 30. In fact none of these times can be correct, because she had no stress until 9 pm, and therefore it is almost impossible she ate before 7 30pm. The research on gastric emptying is very easy to undertake, but I like the Mercy hospital study that stops after two hours, because if nothing has happened it is case closed, medical problems, which Meredith did not have.

http://mercymedicalcenter.chsli.org/gastric-empty-study

To summarise, it is best to assume she ate at 7 30, and digestion stopped when stressed by Rudy at 9, not Amanda much later.

It is also very common to be confronted with stomach emptying taking two to four hours, which gives the flexibilty needed by the prosecution. This is such a bare faced and wilfull nonsense it should never have gained traction. Stomach emptying never takes two hours to commence, but it does take two to four hours to be complete. If we think about this it would have been completely statistically normal for her stomach to be completely empty at 9 pm with a meal time of 7 pm. The converse, the stomach completely full, is near impossible.

The guilters tie themselves in knots, to the extent that they suggest the pizza was completely passed beyond the duodenum, while the desert was still in stomach. But in fact the pizza and desert were mixed and identifiable, comprising the 500 mil stomach contents.

Here is a post from RandyN who was an army pathologist I believe.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9679112&postcount=9084
Click to expand...


Thanks for this, but I'm aware of the arguments. What I don't understand is why the defence isn't pushing, or even mentioning the gastric evidence.
 
lonepinealex said:
Thanks for this, but I'm aware of the arguments. What I don't understand is why the defence isn't pushing, or even mentioning the gastric evidence.
Click to expand...
There are whole lives and fortunes at stake. In my universe this neglect would be inconceivable, so I must leave it to the northern hemisphere to answer your question.
 
Chris_Halkides said:
platonov,

You are pretty good at research. For the uninitiated, why don't you dig up the post[s?] where you accused me of mendacity. That way everyone can calculate the odds of my doing your homework for you.
Click to expand...

:)

I'm not doing homework just commenting on/correcting yours (which is reminiscent of another frankly hilarious argument that was once popular in these threads).
And as I advised you a long time ago when one's arguments are honest and consistent a good memory (or research skill) isn’t necessary.

So why not dispense with the prevarication/obfuscation and reply to this POST. Some of the noobs seem curious.

It's as easy as telling the time.
 
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