Proof of Immortality II

[Toontown]

I don't doubt that you are special to you now (not before you were born). I don't understand how that means in any way that you were pre-chosen, set apart, or have special significance. Your significance (to you; there are 7 billon other people on this planet) only occurred after you were born and is directly comparable to the special significance of your unique fingerprints or drawing a 3 of clubs out of a pack of 52 random cards. What are the chances of that? Before you do it, 1/52. After you do it: 1/1.

1. Your fingerprints are a part of being you, not unlike the club on the 3 is a part of the 3 of clubs being itself.

2. The prior probability of the 3 of clubs coming off a full deck is not altered in the slightest by the 3 of clubs coming off the deck. That probability will forever remain 1/52.

3. If you are in a big poker tournament, and only the 3 of clubs can win you a huge pot and send you to the final table, without which you will limp home busted, perhaps then you will understand when a 3 of clubs coming off the deck can be life-changingly significant to you. (But not to me). And you need not know the significance of the 3 of clubs until the hand is complete and the cards are revealed. The significance of the card, in that case, does not depend upon your knowledge of it's significance. You need not ever know the significance of the 3. You could walk away from the table before the card is dealt, and return to find the chips had been shoved into your position, and you need never ask why. Yet the life-changing significance of the 3 would remain forever unaltered by the electrochemical flounderings of your brain.

 

[Monza]

By the way- I do feel lucky that the throw of the dice made me, rather than someone else a lot more like my sister. She can be very short templed sometimes.

She must have a difficult time finding a hat that fits.

 

[Giordano]

She must have a difficult time finding a hat that fits.

Actually, she is somewhat short templed too, but I corrected my spelling mistake in the original post. Sorry- spelling has always been my poorest subject.

 

[Monza]

- To me, I’m the one that counts.
- Toon has been saying this for a while already. The problem comes in trying to explain its relevancy --- which is why I tried to explain my claim of infinity for so long…

No one discounts that you are special to yourself. Everyone is special to themselves. I don't think I have seen anyone dispute this. What is in dispute is the importance of this. Defining something as special after the fact is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

Also, the whole infinity thing went on for so long because you refused to acknowledge that infinity is not a number.

- Anyway, the likelihood of me being one of the “lucky” ones is 1/10^80! at best. It is 10^80!:1 that I would be oblivious forever.

No, you wouldn't be oblivious forever. You wouldn't exist. Your collection of thoughts was not floating around in the ether waiting for a body to be born that it can then enter and begin being special. Just like right now, there are no consciousnesses out there that are oblivious because they haven't been born yet.

- And, in a sense (that sense) at least, I was pre-chosen, set apart, and should not just be counted as someone/anyone… My particular existence is special/significant.
- I’ll be back.

That doesn't make any sense. By the way, proving (or providing evidence) that you are special should include more than simply stating you are special. There is a whole bit in the middle there that you have overlooked.

Your last sentence is simply a re-statement of your first. You are special to you. Fine. Now what?

 

[Monza]

Actually, she is somewhat short templed too, but I corrected my spelling mistake in the original post. Sorry- spelling has always been my poorest subject.

No worries. My poorest subject is punctuation?!

 

[Akhenaten]

- To me, I’m the one that counts.

I have some bad news for you.

- Toon has been saying this for a while already. The problem comes in trying to explain its relevancy --- which is why I tried to explain my claim of infinity for so long…

"Toon" has been making your point for you, has she? And still people are missing it . . ?

Any clues there for you, Jabba?

- Anyway, the likelihood of me being one of the “lucky” ones is 1/10^80! at best. It is 10^80!:1 that I would be oblivious forever.

You'll most definitely be oblivious forever, although I have no idea why you've suddenly decided to present this obvious fact as a point worthy of discussion.

- And, in a sense (that sense) at least, I was pre-chosen, set apart, and should not just be counted as someone/anyone… My particular existence is special/significant.

I'll give you a vote for "special".

"Significant", not so much.

- I’ll be back.

No you won't.

 

[Akhenaten]

- Try this. I am either TREMENDOUSLY “lucky” – or, there is a better (more probable) explanation.

My cat and I tried it together.

We unanimously decided that any explanation is both better and more probable.

Is it more probable that I am TREMENDOUSLY lucky than that there is a more probable explanation?

No, not even remotely.

 

[Giordano]

You know, not only do I think that I am special, but my wife thinks I am special too. At least in the sense of different from everyone else. I don't think that is always considered a positive by my wife. Or even by me.

 

[tsig]

You know, not only do I think that I am special, but my wife thinks I am special too. At least in the sense of different from everyone else. I don't think that is always considered a positive by my wife. Or even by me.

I think I'm special, my wife thinks I'm special, my son thinks I'm special and my mother thinks I'm special, looks like it's unanimous.

 

[Slowvehicle]

You know, not only do I think that I am special, but my wife thinks I am special too. At least in the sense of different from everyone else. I don't think that is always considered a positive by my wife. Or even by me.

I think I'm special, my wife thinks I'm special, my son thinks I'm special and my mother thinks I'm special, looks like it's unanimous.

I'm a schoolteacher. I know what "special" means, Snowflake...

 

[Mojo]

Can you explain why I should unquestioningly believe, with starry-eyed faith, that my specific existence is consistent with a model which lays prior odds of 10^80! : 1 against my specific observed existence?

Imagine a die with 10^80! sides. Is one of those sides coming up when the die is thrown inconsistent with the hypothesis that the die produces a random result?

 

[Jabba]

My cat and I tried it together.

We unanimously decided that any explanation is both better and more probable.






No, not even remotely.

Akhenaten,
- No one noticed that you were agreeing with me.

 

[Loss Leader]

- To me, I’m the one that counts.
- Toon has been saying this for a while already. The problem comes in trying to explain its relevancy --- which is why I tried to explain my claim of infinity for so long…
- Anyway, the likelihood of me being one of the “lucky” ones is 1/10^80! at best. It is 10^80!:1 that I would be oblivious forever.
- And, in a sense (that sense) at least, I was pre-chosen, set apart, and should not just be counted as someone/anyone… My particular existence is special/significant.
- I’ll be back.

Is the 6 special because it got rolled? [i}Something[/i] had to get rolled. After the fact, we see it was the 6. But that doesn't mean the 6 was ever any more or less likely than 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.

If your entire proof is that your life feels important and eternal to you, then I will happily agree and we can close the thread. If you think that your existence should somehow show importance or eternity to me, then you are sadly mistaken.

 

[Giordano]

Akhenaten,
- No one noticed that you were agreeing with me.

Do you think that was his intent?

 

[Toontown]

3. Can you explain why I should unquestioningly believe, with starry-eyed faith, that my specific existence is consistent with a model which lays prior odds of 10^80! : 1 against my specific observed existence?

Imagine a die with 10^80! sides. Is one of those sides coming up when the die is thrown inconsistent with the hypothesis that the die produces a random result?

1. Why do you equate one specific side with a random one of the sides, as if the probability of the one specific side is equal to the combined probabilities of all the other sides? Is that how you try to make your reasoning work? Do you truly, fervently believe that reasoning works in the real world?

2. Do you truly, fervently believe you've given sufficient reason for me to unquestioningly believe, with starry-eyed faith, that my specific existence is consistent with a model which lays prior odds of 10^80! : 1 against my specific observed existence?

 

[Toontown]

If your entire proof is that your life feels important and eternal to you, then I will happily agree and we can close the thread.
If you think that your existence should somehow show importance or eternity to me, then you are sadly mistaken.

I estimate odds in excess of 10,000 : 1 that Jabba does not think his existence should somehow show importance or eternity to you.

 

[John Jones]

Akhenaten,
- No one noticed that you were agreeing with me.

Mein Gott! You actually replied to Akhenaten!

 

[Toontown]

I don't doubt that you are special to you now (not before you were born). I don't understand how that means in any way that you were pre-chosen, set apart, or have special significance.

As a guy who uses stats in your work, you should have no difficulty following this reasoning:

1. That which exists could never have been impossible, or it could not now exist.

2. That which was never impossible was always possible.

3. That which is possible could either happen or not.

4. That which could either happen or not has a probability.

C1: Jabba has always had a vanishingly small but nonzero probability associated with his coming into existence, since the beginning of the universe. That was the target.

C2: The same reasoning applies to you, should you at any time become sufficiently enlightened to acknowledge it.

 

[Giordano]

Mein Gott! You actually replied to Akhenaten!

I've come to conclude that Jabba reads, at least quickly, most of the posts but simply declines to respond to, or misinterprets, the ones that most refute his theory. The saddest is when he tries to suggest that the poster must have meant the opposite of what they actually wrote.

 

[AdMan]

C1: Jabba has always had a vanishingly small but nonzero probability associated with his coming into existence, since the beginning of the universe. That was the target.

No. That was not the target. You, or Jabba, selected the target after the fact--after Jabba existed. Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, whether you are able to understand it or not.