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Moderated JFK conspiracy theories: it never ends III

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And yet it STILL took Oswald three shots to hit the target!

This is something I have pointed out before. Conspiracy theorists talk about how amazing his shots were. I take the opposite approach. Why did he take three shots at Kennedy? Because the first two missed. And if he had missed the third, he would have taken a fourth and so on until he ran out of bullets.

He wasn't shooting with sharpshooter precision in the least. He just had multiple attempts. He only needs to be able to hit the target 1/5 of the time to have a 50% chance of hitting it in three attempts.

We've discussed that highlighted point before, but maybe a repetition of it wouldn't hurt here (before a fringe reset). One reason they think it's amazing is because they demand a recreation of the shots in excruciating detail, down to the last hop, skip, and jump all the way to Tague; and when this unrealistic demand isn't met, they crow "if you can't recreate it, it didn't happen!" I've used this analogy previously, but if a ballplayer knocked a home run out of the park, with the ball hitting a light pole on the way out and landing in a particular spot in the parking lot, would it be reasonable to say the home run never happened, and the ball never left the stadium, because its flight could never be exactly duplicated, down to the same light pole and spot in the parking lot? Of course not; but that's essentially what the CTists demand here.

And Oswald wasn't trying to hit Tague; the only recreation necessary is of what he intended and accomplished- hitting a given target (JFK) at a given distance. And, as Axxman says, anyone who's actually been to Dealey Plaza (as I have) and looked out that window can tell you what a chip shot that would be for a Marine-trained rifleman. (They could also tell you how impossible it would be for some other rifleman to have gone undetected- that place is small)
 
And yet you don't seem to realize that it isn't prosecutors that determine what charges are filed. Are you certain it's my foundation of knowledge that is lacking?
Kinda sure...

“The prosecutor then decides whether to file charges and, if so, what charges to file. The prosecutor decides whether to charge the crime as a felony or a misdemeanor. The prosecutor can file charges on all of the crimes for which the police arrested the defendant or can decide to file fewer charges or more charges than were included in the arrest report.”

http://www.courts.ca.gov/1069.htm

"How does a criminal case get started? Usually with a police arrest report. The prosecutor then decides what criminal charges to file, if any. "

http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/charged-with-crime-how-29677.html

"How does a criminal case get filed? First, there is an arrest and the police report that follows. The prosecutor then reads the police report and decides whether or not the arrested should be charged with a crime."

http://criminal.findlaw.com/criminal-law-basics/what-happens-when-you-re-charged-with-a-crime.html

But this is just another red herring, you're really working too hard to find picayune reasons to be disagreeable.
 
You will be pleased to learn that we can instead depend on Oswald's revolver which was used to murder officer Tippit and which Oswald still had in his possession when he was apprehended and with which he tried to shoot the arresting officers. Are you still fixated on Markham?

Markham just happened to come up when the false claim that Mark Lane lied about their phone conversation was floated.
 
Markham just happened to come up when the false claim that Mark Lane lied about their phone conversation was floated.

Just checking to see if you were still fixated on Markham and ignoring the preponderance of evidence. Thanks.

Did you ever decide what to believe about the revolover that Oswald tried to murder the other arresting officers with after he had murdered officer Tippit with the same revolver?
 
Well, you did just that, didn't you?

No, you see it's always 'do as I say, not as I do' with the LNs.


The point is that she didn't identify Oswald because he resembled the shooter, she pointed out "nr 2" because he looked scary. The whole setup was rigged. 3 teenagers and Oswald, angry, scared and beaten up by the DPD with a big black bruise over his eye, and a completely hysterical Markham in need of medical care. Texas justice?

I didn't think the others were teenagers in this lineup. But Oswald did point out the lineups were very shoddy. Most likely useless as it would be obvious to anyone who the police wanted you to pick out.

But look at Markham's original description to the FBI:

"MRS MARKHAM stated that she is sure that she can identify him and described him as a white male, about 18, black hair, red complexion, wearing black shoes, tan jacket, and dark trousers."

https://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/viewer/showDoc.do?docId=10406&relPageId=82


No, it was in line with earlier descriptions of the shooter, and it's perfectly alright as a lawyer (informal) for the defense in the case against Oswald to ask questions in order to asses the firmness of a testimony. "Star witness" Markham didn't pass.

Most likely Markham would have been destroyed if she were ever cross examined.

No, she didn't identify Oswald, she identified "nr 2" because he gave her the creeps. No wonder ...

Ergo: Lane was not dishonest, misrepresenting Markham's testimony, and he certainly didn't lie.

Yes, I think this one can be laid to rest.
 
In my writing I formulate this same concept differently (but congruently) and, years ago, gave it the label Bellwether Fallacy. For those without an extensive background in shepherding, the bellwether is the one sheep in the flock on which you put the bell, according to the principle that where the flock goes, so goes the bellwether.

The Bellwether Fallacy is the notion that a question to which a vast amount of evidence pertains can somehow be decided on the basis of a single "smoking-gun" bit of evidence. For example, the eyeball is allegedly the Bellwether point of Creationism, radiation is the Bellwether point of Moon-landing theorists, and things like the paraffin test are put forward as the Bellwether of the JFK case.

How it works is that the conspiracy theorist picks one point out of the vast realm of pertinent evidence, promotes it as an inescapable key point, and then pretends to debunk or expose it. Then, on the basis of that alleged smoking-gun failure, he declares the rest of the evidence to be irrelevant and thus it's unnecessary to examine it. So if the prevailing theory "must" fail by virtue of that one allegedly slam-dunk line of reasoning, and we thus "know" the prevailing theory is false, then the remainder of the evidence for the prevailing theory must "somehow" work itself out to also be fake or planted or otherwise nonprobative -- even if the conspiracy theorist can't or won't explain how. E.g., "We know the Apollo crew can't have survived the Van Allen belts, so I don't have to explain how we got the Moon rocks; it's obvious they were fabricated somehow because we know they really didn't go to the Moon."

The Bellwether Fallacy is really a composite of two classic Aristotelian fallacies: circular reasoning, and the fallacy of limited scope.

The fallacy of Limited Scope says that a hypothesis that explains or considers only part of the pertinent evidence is less likely to be true than one which explains more of it. It's frequently committed in the quest for parsimony, but committed also routinely by conspiracy theorists because their approach is almost always just to pick away at one thread or another, as you've noted. They havce to commit the Limited Scope fallacy because they don't have a credible alternate narrative from end to end.

Circular reasoning doesn't need much explanation among this group. It's simply presuming the conclusion is true for the purpose of establishing a premise that is circularly dependent upon it. Saying we don't have to consider other evidence for, say, Oswald's guilt in the shooting of Tippit because we know by some smoking-gun means that he was innocent (e.g., that Markham's testimony might be problematic), is the epitome of circular reasoning.

Of course the whole exercise is a strategy not to have to test either the prevailing theory or the conspiracy theory against all the evidence. Doing that would expose that the conspiracy theory really doesn't explain much of the evidence, or explain it any better.



That was me. It's a legal term and I used it in the context of a legal standard of proof. "Consilience" is a scientific term, and is far more appropriate to a wider discussion of the JFK evidence, or even in a pseudo-legal discussion of who, among all the available suspects, is the most likely to have killed Kennedy.

The interlocutors here have used the "devil is in the details" maxim incorrectly to assume that a conclusion drawn on the basis of consilience can and should be undone by some small outlying detail. Again, this is because conspiracy theories ever only pick away at outlying data points and never address the whole body of evidence.

Thanks, Jay, you just sent me on a wild chase through "Thinking Fast and Slow" and "Fact and Method: Explanation, Confirmation, and Reality in the Natural and the Social Sciences" trying to find an equivalent to your "Bellwether Fallacy". I also started chasing down Positivism and Goodman's "New Riddle of Induction".:mad: :D

Closest I can come to an explanation to the phenomena of CT focus on the Bellwether is in their process of framing. It seems that they frame the guilt of LHO (or collapse of WTC 7, etc.) as a question similar to "All Swans must be black" and then try to find a white swan to disprove that particular hypothesis / strawman, instead of framing it as a question of the best hypothesis to fit the data among all other hypotheses (kind of a restatement of what you said in your quote).
 
I'm just interested in the weird responses I am getting to my reasoned posts.

You neglected to answer the question about Oswald's revolver that he attempted to murder the other arresting officers with after he murdered officer Tippit with the same revolver.

What is your "reasoned" belief about it?
 
Most likely Markham would have been destroyed if she were ever cross examined.

But you haven't laid the foundation necessary for opinions of this kind to be probative. Your entire approach seems to be what you speculate would happen in an imaginary court case.

Yes, I think this one can be laid to rest.

It's cute how you've appointed yourself the arbiter of this thread.
 
Lane and Markham again.

If Lane had been cross-examining Markham, he'd likely only get to ask her once whether she described Oswald as "short, stocky, and bushy-haired," not the three times he asked her in the phone call. Her answer was "no," and that would have ended the line of questioning. Can you tell me which of the common courtroom objections applies to that particular tactic?

Markham told Lane she thought Oswald was "short." But Lane never attempted to determine what Markham considered "short." Instead, later, without Markham's permission, Lane characterized Oswald as "average," and just projected his belief that Markham "must" have meant someone shorter than what he later would define as "average." Do you have the experience and knowledge to know whether such a thing would be allowed in court? Do you see the essence of Lane's lie?

Lane reports that Markham said Oswald was "on the heavy side." But in fact Markham gave specific weight estimates for Tippit's shooter (and the person she said she identified in the lineup). We know suspect number 2 was Oswald, that Oswald was 5'-9", and this was the person she described as weighing 150-160 pounds. That's average weight for a person of the height we know she was looking at. If the witness gives precise information but the reporter (Lane) reports it as a vague, subjective description, is that honest? Would that be allowed in court? What standard courtroom objection applies to this question?

Lane reports that Markham told him the suspect had hair that was "a little bushy," and then goes on to clarify that she means it was uncombed. Lane ignores that and tells the Warren Commission that Markham said "somewhat bushy," and does not inform them that "bushy" here meant a specific thing to Markham that he neglects to pass along. What standard courtroom objection would apply to this issue?

As with the FBI report, we see that Lane's summary of Markham employs material omission to convey -- if not an outright false impression -- at least an ambiguous one that does not reflect the comparative lack of ambiguity in in the actual testimony he was given.
 
So... Just to be clear, it is a GOOD thing to the Conspiracy Advocates that the credibility of the witness, on whose testimony they rely to exonerate Oswald is destroyed under cross examination?

It is a good thing that Lanes representation of her statement and his conclusions drawn from it are burned with that credibility? Or is this a very special kind of credibility destruction where she would be shown to be utterly unreliable except for in describing her witness in a way that does not fit Oswald?

That CT advocates seem to fail to see how and why the presentation of witness testimony by Lane was dishonest (intentional or not) is something of an insight into why they advocate a conspiracy to begin with.

Apart from anything else certain posters seem utterly oblivious the emotional impact of having to give testimony for witnessing a murder. Who wants to see somebody "destroyed" because you fail to understand the finesse and subtly of psychology?

Just as a side note, there is a reason why many witnesses refuse to identify from a line up at all despite knowing exactly who they are staring at. It is not because a line up is shoddy, and it is well known to law enforcement. I wonder if it is also well known and taken into acccount by those are willing to leap to Lanes conclusion?

Besides when will get a citation for Oswald being selected because he was apparently scarier and more intimidating than others in the line up?
 
Lane and Markham again.

If Lane had been cross-examining Markham, he'd likely only get to ask her once whether she described Oswald as "short, stocky, and bushy-haired," not the three times he asked her in the phone call. Her answer was "no," and that would have ended the line of questioning. Can you tell me which of the common courtroom objections applies to that particular tactic?

Markham told Lane she thought Oswald was "short." But Lane never attempted to determine what Markham considered "short." Instead, later, without Markham's permission, Lane characterized Oswald as "average," and just projected his belief that Markham "must" have meant someone shorter than what he later would define as "average." Do you have the experience and knowledge to know whether such a thing would be allowed in court? Do you see the essence of Lane's lie?

Lane reports that Markham said Oswald was "on the heavy side." But in fact Markham gave specific weight estimates for Tippit's shooter (and the person she said she identified in the lineup). We know suspect number 2 was Oswald, that Oswald was 5'-9", and this was the person she described as weighing 150-160 pounds. That's average weight for a person of the height we know she was looking at. If the witness gives precise information but the reporter (Lane) reports it as a vague, subjective description, is that honest? Would that be allowed in court? What standard courtroom objection applies to this question?

Lane reports that Markham told him the suspect had hair that was "a little bushy," and then goes on to clarify that she means it was uncombed. Lane ignores that and tells the Warren Commission that Markham said "somewhat bushy," and does not inform them that "bushy" here meant a specific thing to Markham that he neglects to pass along. What standard courtroom objection would apply to this issue?

As with the FBI report, we see that Lane's summary of Markham employs material omission to convey -- if not an outright false impression -- at least an ambiguous one that does not reflect the comparative lack of ambiguity in in the actual testimony he was given.
The same ambiguity that tried to suggest that driving up a slope towards the TSBD building could be towards the Grassy Knoll. But don't worry, they are sure it was all honest and accurate.
 
Badgering the witness? Asking question already answered?

Possibly also leading the witness or coercion towards a particular conclusion.

I think there is more than a little melodrama to the assumption that cross examination would devalue the identification.
:cool:so ma'am when I asked you if you recognised...
:o I misunderstood.
:cool: but you said....
:o I misunderstood. Then I clarified that yes I did recognise LHO.

Unless of course the prosecution were to do something devious, like cover the misunderstanding in the first round of questions.
 
Trying to give doubt to LHO killing Kennedy by claiming he didn't shoot Tippit is as plausible as telling your kid to not eat the Halloween candy before he hands it out to the trick-or-treaters.

My word, he still had the Tippit gun in his hand during arrest.
 
Not a very small detail at all. Somewhat fundamental in point of fact.

I have to emphasize this. The conspiracy theorists have deployed quite a number of words arguing that it is valid -- even essential -- to exonerate Oswald as the primary (and in most cases, solitary) purpose of their efforts. They have argued that we must apply courtroom standards and methods to the available evidence, to determine whether Oswald is guilty. They have styled the Warren Commission as the de facto prosecution and whichever conspiracy book they're shilling as the supposedly brilliant courtroom defense that allegedly demolishes the "case against Oswald."

The whole reason manifesto brought it up in the first place is that characterizing the Warren Commission as a prosecution is a fundamental premise to nearly all the formulations of JFK conspiracy theories. Thus, challenging the core assumption of "Warren as Prosecutor" is not a small detail -- it's a swift, assertive stroke at the jugular.
 
So... Just to be clear, it is a GOOD thing to the Conspiracy Advocates that the credibility of the witness, on whose testimony they rely to exonerate Oswald is destroyed under cross examination?

I think the scenario is that she would be called as a witness for the prosecution, and that under cross-examination her testimony against Oswald would fall apart and, as a result, a jury would decide there wasn't any good evidence that Oswald killed Tippit and acquit him.

This is one of those insidious consequences of framing the study of evidence as a court case rather than as a consilient study of evidence. In court, each witness is called by one of the parties and is presumed to offer direct testimony favorable to that party's desired outcome. A particular witness's hypothetical unreliability in that circumstance harms only the party who called him.

But in an historical investigation, a witness's reliability cuts both ways. If one wants to argue that some witness affirmatively supports your case, such as Markham allegedly denying that she picked Oswald in a lineup, or describing a person who doesn't fit Oswald, then the reliability problem hurts your case. So framing the investigation like a court case -- selectively, when convenient -- lets the author benefit improperly from a the presumption of the defending party's innocence.

Apart from anything else certain posters seem utterly oblivious the emotional impact of having to give testimony for witnessing a murder.

I think there is more than a little melodrama to the assumption that cross examination would devalue the identification.

This is why I think it's important that the people assuring us of what the outcome would be if there were a real prosecution and a real cross-examination tell us what their experience is in real-world collection of oral testimony, deposition, examination, cross-examination, and courtroom procedure. And that's why I keep asking the question that manifesto and proudfootz find so uncomfortable.

I agree with your characterization. The wishful exoneration of Oswald is not built on an actual prosecution. It's not built on an actual defense. It's built on nothing more than an imaginary mock trial where the conspiracy theorists get to write the scripts for both sides and the judge and jury, and -- not unexpectedly -- write an ending in their favor.

Besides when will get a citation for Oswald being selected because he was apparently scarier and more intimidating than others in the line up?

Indeed. I've read page 311 of the testimony three times now, and I can't see where Markham says she was scared or intimidated. I can see plenty of description of an emotional response, but Markham does not say what emotion, if any, provoked the response.

Testimony of Mrs. Helen Markham said:
Mr. BALL: What did you say when you saw number two?

Mrs. MARKHAM: Well, let me tell you. I said the second man, and they kept asking me which one, which one. I said, number two. When I said number two, I just got weak.

Mr. BALL: What about number two, what did you mean when you said number
two?

Mrs. MARKHAM: Number two was the man I saw shoot the policeman.

Mr. BALL: You recognized him from his appearance?

Mrs. MARKHAM: I asked -- I looked at him. When I saw this man I wasn’t sure, but I had cold chills just run all over me.

Mr. BALL: When you saw him?

Mrs. MARKHAM: When I saw the man. But I wasn’t sure, so, you see, I told them I wanted to be sure, and looked, at his face is what I was looking at, mostly is what I looked at, on account of his eyes, the way he looked at me. So I asked them if they would turn him sideways. They did, and then they turned him back around, and I said the second, and they said, which one, and I said number two. So when I said that, well, I just kind of fell over. Everybody in there, you know, was beginning to talk, and I don’t know, just --

That's the extent of Markham's testimony to the Warren Commission about her reaction to seeing Oswald in the lineup. No mention of fear or intimidation. That's the conspiracy theorists pasting their interpretation inappropriately on the evidence -- much as Mark Lane has done.
 
My word, he still had the Tippit gun in his hand during arrest.

Which has been brought up many times, but now lately dismissed. The tap-dance is getting pretty obvious.


Red: Markham is what you base your case on? She's a terrible witness; you need better evidence than that.
Blue: Okay, here's all the rest of the evidence that shows Oswald killed Tippit.
Red: Whoa! Gish gallop! I'm not responding to any of that.

_____

Red: We don't have to pretend to be top-notch lawyers.
Blue: Okay.
Red: Now here's my legal analysis and opinion showing why Markham would have failed under cross-examination.

_____

Red: We're not going to identify any other suspects.
Blue: Why not?
Red: Because it would be irresponsible speculation to do so.
Blue: So then you simply "exonerate" Oswald and walk away?
Red: No, we have other suspects.
Blue: Who are they?
Red: I'm not going to reveal them until you show me you're ready.

_____

Red: I use mainstream, real-world techniques.
Blue: And how are your techniques techniques received among the relevant body of real-world experts?
Red: I won't submit to a popularity contests. They don't prove anything.
Blue: Then how do you know your methods are correct?
Red: Because of all the polls that show how few people believe the official story.

_____

Red: You guys are all picking on me!
Blue: Really? I don't think we are.
Red: Plus you're all so thin-skinned that you reported my posts.
​

Gotta love the performance art. Still no closer, apparently, to getting an actual claim and case.
 
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