Proof of Immortality II

[godless dave]

I have a small bit of granite on my desk, what was the random probability that every single atom in it was arranged exactly as it is?

Jabba, this is exactly the same kind of random likelihood we're talking about for the existence of a self under the scientific model.

If very large improbabilities for specific events mean the scientific model for human consciousness is wrong, then the scientific model for the existence of pieces of granite is wrong as well.

 

[Mojo]

If Dave is immortal, the SM is wrong. If the SM is wrong, these events don't need to occur.

You're trying to prove immortality by demonstrating that "the scientific model" is wrong, remember? You can't assume that your desired conclusion is true in order to demonstrate that your proof that it is true is valid.

Whether or not Dave is immortal, the events leading to his existence have the same likelyhood. Dave's existence would tell you nothing about whether he is immortal, even if you could run the universe more than once, which you can't.

And if you insist on shoehorning an infinite number of potential souls into your formula for the likelyhood of Dave's specific existence, the likelyhood of his specific existence is zero whether he's mortal or immortal.

 

[Giordano]

I have a small bit of granite on my desk, what was the random probability that every single atom in it was arranged exactly as it is?

Sounds very special and I can not imagine how that particular arrangement happened (probability = 1/infinity?). Reincarnated corian?

 

[Toontown]

I have a small bit of granite on my desk, what was the random probability that every single atom in it was arranged exactly as it is?

That was never the question, or anywhere near the question. The question is about the probability of one particular, presumably prerequisite brain. Not some random rock you happened to see.

 

[Toontown]

The only reason an ace would be special is because once I have called you it is a predetermined desired result. Jabba isn't.

Oh, I get it now. The ace will stop being 'special' if you luck out and catch it. You have to know it's special before you catch it, or it's not special. And that's why Jabba isn't special, even to himself - he didn't know he was going to happen until he already happened. And after he happened it was too late for him to be special to himself. Because probability is mystical like that.

Yeah, right. Tell me another fairy tale.

Scenario: We have both checked all the way to the river because we both have weak hands. You don't figure you have much of a chance with your lowly 8,5. You are only in the hand because you are the big blind. I'm only in the hand because I have pocket 7's and everybody folded ahead of me. But I foolishly give you a free ride and a 8 comes on the river, giving you a pair of 8's, beating my pocket 7's. Until I showed my hand, you had no idea that the river 8 was 'special'. You only learned of the 8's 'specialness' after it was dealt. But that didn't make it any less special. You won the pot because of it. There was no other card that could have helped you. You had no other draws. If the 8 doesn't come, you can't win no matter what else comes. But you didn't know that until after the 8 came.

You don't have to know before the fact that a possible event is special in order for the event to be special. In fact, what you do or do not know or desire has nothing to do with it. The event is special if it is special.

 

[Tinyal]

Well, Toontown's post seem to have no relation to Immortality, whether asserted, questioned, or proven.

Then again, neither does Jabbas posts.

I don't know why I keep coming back to this post - perhaps I'm expecting something along the lines of a proof for immortality? I suppose I got that idea from somewhere completely unrelated - like the title of the OP, maybe?

I'll check back in a while, perhaps I've missed it? Did Jabba secretly embed this proof in a previous post of his, and it just went over my head?

<won't hold my breath>

 

[Mojo]

Oh, I get it now. The ace will stop being 'special' if you luck out and catch it.

No, the ace is special because I need an ace to win.

If you want an example analagous to Jabba's existence, you need to produce a scenario in which I win whatever card I catch. Jabba is no more special than any of the other people who exist, or any of the hypothetical people who could have existed.

 

[Jabba]

- Once your parents met, what was the random probability that you would ever exist?

We could get that by estimating the number of years my mother would remain fertile and the number of sperm my dad would create from that point in his life onward, and figuring out all the different possible combinations.

Billions, I would expect, but that's just a guess. Might be more like hundreds of millions.

- Once your 2 sets of grandparents met, what was the random probability that your parents would ever exist?

 

[Slowvehicle]

- Once your 2 sets of grandparents met, what was the random probability that your parents would ever exist?

Mr. Savage:

Did you predict the identities and characteristics of your parents before they were born, or are you drawing a circle around them afterwards?

Do you even understand the difference?

 

[trebor]

I have a small bit of granite on my desk, what was the random probability that every single atom in it was arranged exactly as it is?

If we were to go back in time 4 billion years or so to when the Earth was forming, what is the odds that these specific atoms would end up in the rock.
I'm guessing it must be pretty close to 1/Infinity

 

[carlitos]

That was never the question, or anywhere near the question. The question is about the probability of one particular, presumably prerequisite brain. Not some random rock you happened to see.

Would you be kind enough to explain, in a universal sense, how a brain coming into existence is different from a rock coming into existence? I'm not seeing it. Why are you calling the rock "random," but the brain of Jabba "prerequisite" and "specific?"

 

[Akhenaten]

- Once your 2 sets of grandparents met, what was the random probability that your parents would ever exist?

Once your 2 sets of grandparents meet the probability of your parents' existence becomes considerably less random than it was before.

Once your parents meet the probability of your own existence becomes even less random.

2.3.1.1.1.5.6 Etcetera

 

[godless dave]

- Once your 2 sets of grandparents met, what was the random probability that your parents would ever exist?

A similar probability to my existence when my parents met - roughly the same number of variables.

 

[godless dave]

Trebor is talking about one specific piece of rock.

 

[Jabba]

- Once your parents met, what was the random probability that you would ever exist?

We could get that by estimating the number of years my mother would remain fertile and the number of sperm my dad would create from that point in his life onward, and figuring out all the different possible combinations.
Billions, I would expect, but that's just a guess. Might be more like hundreds of millions.

- Once your 2 sets of grandparents met, what was the random probability that your parents would ever exist?

A similar probability to my existence when my parents met - roughly the same number of variables.

Dave,
- No – since it’s 2 sets of grandparents, the random probability of your parent’s existence would be the original probability squared -- at least. That is, so far, we are not taking into account the random probabilities that your parents would ever meet, and that they would ever share reproductive cells -- nor, that your 2 sets of grandparents would ever meet (Robert would meet Susan, and Margaret would meet Joseph (just guessing at names)) and, in each case, eventually, share reproductive cells, themselves.
- And this is just the tip of an unimaginably large iceberg...
- Probability isn't easy.

 

[zooterkin]

Dave,
- No – since it’s 2 sets of grandparents, the random probability of your parent’s existence would be the original probability squared -- at least. That is, so far, we are not taking into account the random probabilities that your parents would ever meet, and that they would ever share reproductive cells -- nor, that your 2 sets of grandparents would ever meet (Robert would meet Susan, and Margaret would meet Joseph (just guessing at names)) and, in each case, eventually, share reproductive cells, themselves.
- And this is just the tip of an unimaginably large iceberg...
- Probability isn't easy.

Where are you going with this?

It's a very big number. It's not infinity.

Where does immortality come in?

 

[Aepervius]

Dave,
- No – since it’s 2 sets of grandparents, the random probability of your parent’s existence would be the original probability squared -- at least. That is, so far, we are not taking into account the random probabilities that your parents would ever meet, and that they would ever share reproductive cells -- nor, that your 2 sets of grandparents would ever meet (Robert would meet Susan, and Margaret would meet Joseph (just guessing at names)) and, in each case, eventually, share reproductive cells, themselves.
- And this is just the tip of an unimaginably large iceberg...
- Probability isn't easy.

And yet none of those are infinite.

Please provide a read life example of 1/infinite probability.

Go ahead. Try.

 

[godless dave]

Dave,
- No – since it’s 2 sets of grandparents, the random probability of your parent’s existence would be the original probability squared -- at least.

I meant for each parent.

That is, so far, we are not taking into account the random probabilities that your parents would ever meet, and that they would ever share reproductive cells -- nor, that your 2 sets of grandparents would ever meet (Robert would meet Susan, and Margaret would meet Joseph (just guessing at names)) and, in each case, eventually, share reproductive cells, themselves.
- And this is just the tip of an unimaginably large iceberg...
- Probability isn't easy.

Jabba, I already know the probability of me existing is very small, because of all the variables in the system. Any system with a large number of variables is going to have many possible outcomes, each one individually unlikely. You are not telling me anything I don't already know and haven't already stated on this thread.

I objected to the use of the word "unimaginably" because it's not a precise term. Like Han Solo, I can imagine quite a bit.

Starting from the beginning the universe, or even from the beginning of life on earth, the likelihood of my existence is very small. So is the likelihood of the existence of the rock on Trebor's desk. We all understand this.

 

[Giordano]

Dave,
- No – since it’s 2 sets of grandparents, the random probability of your parent’s existence would be the original probability squared -- at least. That is, so far, we are not taking into account the random probabilities that your parents would ever meet, and that they would ever share reproductive cells -- nor, that your 2 sets of grandparents would ever meet (Robert would meet Susan, and Margaret would meet Joseph (just guessing at names)) and, in each case, eventually, share reproductive cells, themselves.
- And this is just the tip of an unimaginably large iceberg...
- Probability isn't easy.

It all depends on the point in time you are calculating the probability. If you go back to the big bang, the probability I would be alive is much less than if you were to allow the first billions of years to occur, let the Sun and planet Earth happen, allow carbon based life to occur on Earth, and let humans appear a few million years ago. Then let all the matings that eventually produced his two sets of grandparents to occur. Than calculate the odds. That is what we are discussing: what is the probability of, after his grandparents formed and met, of them having his parents (the exact probability depends a lot on the nature, drive, mutual attraction, and family size of his grandparents, right? My stick of deodorant, in fact, claims that if my grandfather hadn't used it, I probably wouldn't exist. But I thought you asked given they met, not given the big bang?).

In any case: remind me again: why are the chances of a given "self" different from the chances of any given rock, or given set of finger prints?

 

[Giordano]

I think I can ask this question again, which appeared in a post that got set to AAH ((I think for other reasons). Are all "random" events truly, or equally random? By "random" don't people often mean "undeterminable" rather than truly random? If I have a 6 sided die, than the chance of throwing a 3 is, by most loose uses of English, "random," but not really: I can't though a 16. It is only random out of 6 possibilities (ignoring the small chance it will stay on an edge). If I have a 12 sided die, I can also throw a 3, but my "random" chance in the later is less than with a 6 sided die. So one can have a "random" event out of several possible, as it were, but have very different probabilities given the number of possible events under the circumstance.