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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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I can kind of agree with that. . . . It is an item which needs to be explained
Much of the other items Grinder brought up do not need to be explained and can just be dismissed.
The Bra clasp at least needs to be explained as low template DNA, highly probably to be contamination, ect.
DF it is possible the logic will be reversed by history.
The bra clasp needed to be discovered with incriminating evidence of a sexual assault, because that was the premise that was relied upon to detain Raffaele Sollecito, and indeed it was.
The most important task was to match the footprints to the owner, but this simple task was afforded the same scrutiny as the break in.
Looks ok sign it off.
 
Frank wrote that they used metal detectors to search around the cottage after one of the defense found a table knife in the bushes. But Frank insists that they didn't search the ravine which would be the logical place to ditch a murder weapon. A search of his blog would reveal when this happened.
T U E S D A Y , D E C E M B E R 1 8 , 2 0 0 7
Surprise.. Surprise..
Where the hell that knife comes from?
(updated)
The Scientifica inspection at Meredith's house is just over. I leave them chatting out of the house. After one month and a half since the crime
occurred a knife was found in the underbrush around the house.
And who found it? The police? No, one from the smiling team.
Of course, they are the ones who want the weapon of the crime to be not Raffaele's knife.
And indeed, as soon as they entered the gate the lawyer went to find the knife and some blood stained hankies. How lucky...
By the way, it's just a round kitchen knife unable to make those cuts. But it's notable that they didn't search around the house previously.
They even didn't search the cliff, which is a natural spot to throw a weapon. I expected that cliff to be cleaned from bushes and searched by a squad
of 100 climbers right after the crime. In my dreams. I know it's difficult, very difficult, but... I'd cost less than a single Dna test.
This morning they used a metal detector not in the ravine but through the bushes around the house. Yes, not on november 2nd, today.

The finding of the butter-knife was also reported here:
La repubblica Dec 18, 2007: Omicidio Mez, nuovo sopralluogo Coltello ritrovato tra i cespugli
 
Grinder himself said he was not claiming the other items were robust pieces of evidence. His sole point is that the bra clasp is not the only item of claimed evidence against Raffaele.

Anglo, I cut off much of the quote because it is distracting.
You have to look at each piece of evidence to see if it does have value.
I am not arguing that.

Using Gilroy, let us say that he has a cell phone and the tracking shows the phone at his flat. Let us say that he got a call but did not answer his phone. I do not really call that evidence of guilt. It is neutral.

Most of the evidence presented against Raff is of a similar nature.
Working from memory here
1. We have the phones being off, neutral.
2. We have bloody footprints that could be anybody, not really even evidence of anything.
3. Knife with Meredeth's DNA - that does have to be explained but in this case explained easily by contamination.
4. Writing to himself trying to explain the knife - Idle speculation trying to explain inexplicable, probably should not be allowed in court. Sad things is that kind of evidence that actually damns many defendants when they had nothing to do with the crime. Ran into a case where an ex-girlfriend asks her former boyfriend why her murdered somebody. She may have manipulated the phone so his answer could not be heard but the jury probably took his apparent non answer as an admission of guilt. This is an item I don't have a good answer how to treat.
 
Anglo, I cut off much of the quote because it is distracting.
You have to look at each piece of evidence to see if it does have value.
I am not arguing that.

Using Gilroy, let us say that he has a cell phone and the tracking shows the phone at his flat. Let us say that he got a call but did not answer his phone. I do not really call that evidence of guilt. It is neutral.

Most of the evidence presented against Raff is of a similar nature.
Working from memory here
1. We have the phones being off, neutral.
2. We have bloody footprints that could be anybody, not really even evidence of anything.
3. Knife with Meredeth's DNA - that does have to be explained but in this case explained easily by contamination.
4. Writing to himself trying to explain the knife - Idle speculation trying to explain inexplicable, probably should not be allowed in court. Sad things is that kind of evidence that actually damns many defendants when they had nothing to do with the crime. Ran into a case where an ex-girlfriend asks her former boyfriend why her murdered somebody. She may have manipulated the phone so his answer could not be heard but the jury probably took his apparent non answer as an admission of guilt. This is an item I don't have a good answer how to treat.

Yes. I know all that. So does Grinder. Once more, his point is solely that it is wrong to say the only piece of claimed evidence against Raffaele is the bra clasp. He is not saying it's a good case. On the contrary, if you want to see what he makes of the evidence, read my signature below.
 
Grinder himself said he was not claiming the other items were robust pieces of evidence. His sole point is that the bra clasp is not the only item of claimed evidence against Raffaele.

He also said that I said you could make a good case with lots of pieces of weak evidence. That is not what I intended to be understood as saying when I used David Gilroy as an example of a circumstantial case. Or rather, it is an over-simplification. The items of evidence in Gilroy's case are not weak or strong or anything else when viewed individually because viewing them individually is itself wrong (there is judicial authority for this in the common law world). It is always the totality of the evidence that counts.

Of course, these individual items still have to be proved. It had to be proved that it was Gilroy who bought the air freshener and not someone else. It had to be proved that his car journey took longer than it normally would etc The parallel in our case is that it still has to be proved that Curatolo saw them, that the footprint is Raf's etc etc In Gilroy's case, all the elements could be proved quite firmly. Not so with the the evidence against Raffaele.

Where things get complicated is that one weak piece of evidence (weak in the sense of a dubious identification or merely 'compatible' print) may corroborate another. As I have said before, systematising this stuff is difficult, but suppose there had been another witness in Piazza Grimana during the evening. Suppose this witness was a regular there and was a pretty reliable person. Suppose they proved Curatolo was there on the 1st as he said he was but that he was not there the night before. Now that would firm up Curatolo's evidence somewhat. No, we could be satisfied he really was there whereas before doubts on that point entitled us to reject his claim that he was.

Suppose, further, that our new witness also saw the couple Curatolo claims to have seen. He never saw their faces but he remembers the clothes the female was wearing and these clothes are similar to those Amanda was last seen wearing. Again, not a positive ID but evidence that firms up Curatolo's evidence (which in turn corroborates the evidence of the new witness).

The collection of evidence against Raffaele is weak in a special sense i.e. not because it is merely within one of Grinder's categories of weak circumstantial evidence (everything other than DNA, prints etc) but the individual items are themselves of doubtful interpretation and unsupported by anything else. Contrary to the ISC's osmotic claim, they do not assemble to form a coherent picture that tells us what happened. The picture is instead full of incongruity and even impossibility such as to require considerable interference with already weak evidence in order to make it work, Curatolo's being the best example. We have to let him only look up when Raf and Amanda happened to be in the square but not when they were missing. The fact we have to do this to the point of attracting ridicule suggests something is wrong and what's wrong is - they didn't do it.

ETA reading the judgment in Gilroy in which his appeal was rejected I saw another item of CE which had been used against him.

That is 'weak' evidence per Grinder (because not DNA, fingerprints etc) but strong both in being very clearly proven and in the further sense of working well in combination with the rest of the case against him.

Stronger circumstantial evidence would have been had they found an actual receipt for bleach time stamped for the morning of November 2nd. A CCTV camera shot having Amanda and Raffaele say at the intersection in front of the Piazza say 9:30. A call or text between Rudy and Amanda or Raffaele. And maybe something that really proves a motive. None of these that I'm suggesting actually would have proven that Amanda or Raffaele killed Meredith. I love when people mention circumstantial evidence in other cases...(almost always more compelling and more proven circumstantial evidence ) One of the things that I noticed about pretty much all these cases is the killers had clear motives which allowed a jury to look at the collection of circumstantial evidence in that light. But in this case, the only reason the jury is deliberately viewing every piece of evidence from a guilty perspective is that these two are being accused.
 
Yes. I know all that. So does Grinder. Once more, his point is solely that it is wrong to say the only piece of claimed evidence against Raffaele is the bra clasp. He is not saying it's a good case. On the contrary, if you want to see what he makes of the evidence, read my signature below.

I actually agreed with him in a previous post - Post 826 828
I would argue that just because somebody claims something is evidence does not really make it evidence. Now, if you want to argue that the Italian prosecutors claim it is evidence, fine, I will agree with that statement.

I am curious what your opinion of what should be done about statements like what Raff made in his journal. To those ignorant of psychology, they look damning but to those who are not, they are not really. It looks like with most US juries, if you can find a statement that seems faintly inciminating, they will convict you.
 
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I actually agreed with him in a previous post - Post 826
I would argue that just because somebody claims something is evidence does not really make it evidence. Now, if you want to argue that the Italian prosecutors claim it is evidence, fine, I will agree with that statement.

I am curious what your opinion of what should be done about statements like what Raff made in his journal. To those ignorant of psychology, they look damning but to those who are not, they are not really. It looks like with most US juries, if you can find a statement that seems faintly inciminating, they will convict you.

826 is a post by Methos. Which statements in his journal do you mean?
 
826 is a post by Methos. Which statements in his journal do you mean?

Sorry, Post 828. I am using an older laptop with an LCD screen which is hard to see in daylight.

If I understand, Raff was told that the knife recovered in his house showed Meredeth's DNA (and possibly blood.) He wrote in his journal / diary that possibly she pricked herself somehow with the knife. This was apparently used as an admission of guilt. How to educated jurors that this is not the case or best to just exclude such things.

I have salso een situations which I think are similar where somebody asks somebody "why did you kill [insert name]" If the person does not deny it strongly enough, it is seen as an admission of guilt by many juries (and I suspect many judges as well.) Similarly, how does one educate jurors that this is not teh case or best to just exclude such things
 
Sorry, Post 828. I am using an older laptop with an LCD screen which is hard to see in daylight.
No worries.

If I understand, Raff was told that the knife recovered in his house showed Meredeth's DNA (and possibly blood.) He wrote in his journal / diary that possibly she pricked herself somehow with the knife. This was apparently used as an admission of guilt. How to educated jurors that this is not the case or best to just exclude such things.
No, I don't think it was. I can't find anything in Massei nor in Raffaele's appeal from Massei and I am pretty sure Hellman didn't have to deal with it. Anyhow, maybe someone else knows better. Maybe they re-heated it for Nencini. Here is what he said in his book:



I find this strange but not probative of anything much. I am not sure I believe the story of the curious knife-brushing incident but I think it credible that, trusting the police not to make **** up, his mind was stretching to reconcile this evidence with his own belief that he was not involved. I attach no weight to it.

I have salso een situations which I think are similar where somebody asks somebody "why did you kill [insert name]" If the person does not deny it strongly enough, it is seen as an admission of guilt by many juries (and I suspect many judges as well.) Similarly, how does one educate jurors that this is not teh case or best to just exclude such things
Such non-denials must be judged on their own merits in the context of each case. It is futile to formulate a rule for all such cases.
 
I think you are giving too much credit to jurors actually. . . .Maybe U.K. Jurors are different but I am not so sure.
I think a juror in many cases will jump on such things.
 
Yes. I know all that. So does Grinder. Once more, his point is solely that it is wrong to say the only piece of claimed evidence against Raffaele is the bra clasp. He is not saying it's a good case. On the contrary, if you want to see what he makes of the evidence, read my signature below.

I appreciate this and I should have used claimed as well, but when someone said the only evidence was the clasp they didn't use claimed and of course it wasn't any better than the other evidence. Oops claimed.

The footprint would be more damning than the bra if valid. The footprint is not a match in my opinion and should have been put in a "lineup" of other reference prints for the experts AND the judges to compare. That print doesn't NEED to be either Raf or Rudi it could be Koko or someone he brought or someone else. Regardless, it shouldn't have made to fit one or the other.

I think while the phone being turned off means nothing or very little, it seems more likely than the other claimed evidence to be true.

I've tried to get those here to see that the other claimed evidence is just as much evidence; some weaker, some stronger, as the bra clasp. When a PIP says the only evidence against Raf was collected 46 days later, it opens up to the PGP an unimpeded path to pointing out that the PIP are liars.
 
I appreciate this and I should have used claimed as well, but when someone said the only evidence was the clasp they didn't use claimed and of course it wasn't any better than the other evidence. Oops claimed.

The footprint would be more damning than the bra if valid. The footprint is not a match in my opinion and should have been put in a "lineup" of other reference prints for the experts AND the judges to compare. That print doesn't NEED to be either Raf or Rudi it could be Koko or someone he brought or someone else. Regardless, it shouldn't have made to fit one or the other.

I think while the phone being turned off means nothing or very little, it seems more likely than the other claimed evidence to be true.

I've tried to get those here to see that the other claimed evidence is just as much evidence; some weaker, some stronger, as the bra clasp. When a PIP says the only evidence against Raf was collected 46 days later, it opens up to the PGP an unimpeded path to pointing out that the PIP are liars.

Can you agree that the bra clasp is the "star" item of evidence with the pro guilt crowd?.
 
Stronger circumstantial evidence would have been had they found an actual receipt for bleach time stamped for the morning of November 2nd.

Here is how you would respond if I had said that: The bleach receipt would mean nothing but a coincident since THERE WAS NO CLEANUP.

A CCTV camera shot having Amanda and Raffaele say at the intersection in front of the Piazza say 9:30.

Duh! You'd say it wasn't them or the date stamp was off.

A call or text between Rudy and Amanda or Raffaele.

Really? If the other evidence remained as now you would convict the kids because they "knew" Rudi and texted him? Only if the text was from that night and said something like meet us at the cottage.

And maybe something that really proves a motive.

Please tell us the motive that would convince you.

None of these that I'm suggesting actually would have proven that Amanda or Raffaele killed Meredith. I love when people mention circumstantial evidence in other cases...(almost always more compelling and more proven circumstantial evidence ) One of the things that I noticed about pretty much all these cases is the killers had clear motives which allowed a jury to look at the collection of circumstantial evidence in that light. But in this case, the only reason the jury is deliberately viewing every piece of evidence from a guilty perspective is that these two are being accused.

So you bring up stronger circumstantial evidence and then say even that wouldn't be enough. If the print was Raf's that's all I would need. If Raf's DNA was on the clasp and your other "new" circumstantial evidence existed I would most likely convict.

Even in discussion your absolute position of innocence doesn't allow you to consider guilt. Confirmation bias.

There is no stronger circumstantial evidence in this case than the bloody footprint. I don't believe it matched but if it did...
 
Can you agree that the bra clasp is the "star" item of evidence with the pro guilt crowd?.

Nope it's the bloody footprint. Hell they have PP on it and Mach has his own graphics. Even some of the PGP can see that the bra was collected late and the DNA isn't perfectly clear.

Curatolo is also big as it proves the kids were lying about being at Raf's.
 
walk-by comment

Except that it isn't a footprint, as someone on this thread has pointed out.
 
Except that it isn't a footprint, as someone on this thread has pointed out.

Massei covers the concept well, quoting from Professor Vinci....

Massei p. 376 said:
Professor Vinci's report on the bathmat – we highlight this from the beginning - completely contradicts the conclusions of the Rinaldi-Boemia consultancy.

Not only is the possibility of attributing (in the form of a "judgement of probable identity") the bathmat footprint to Raffaele Sollecito or to Amanda Knox completely denied, but it is somehow hypothesised that the print could have been made by the right foot of Rudy Guede.

It must first be noted that Professor Vinci disagrees with the some of the terminological choices of the consultants of the prosecution. In the opinion of this technical consultant, one should not speak of "print" but of a "track"[orma], as the term "print" should be reserved uniquely for prints containing "ridges", not for foot outlines.
The topics of disagreement also concern the technique used to take footprints. As he testified in Court, Professor Vinci dissents from the methods used by the technical operators of the ERT, and also from the R.I.S. of the Carabinieri, of placing the foot on an inkpad and then on sheets of paper (a method suitable for studying fingerprints). He recommends a more modern method, approved by the scientific community, which would have those submitting to the procedure of footprint acquisition walk for a length of at least six metres along a paper-covered gangway.

The professor furthermore supports the theory that the technical investigations in question belong to the domain of forensic medicine, as they require mandatory orthopaedic and anatomical knowledge. He then criticised the fact that the investigations were conducted uniquely on the basis of image analysis (Dr Rinaldi did state that he had not seen the crime scene, as he did not participate in the inspections, and that he worked only with the photographic materials that had been made available to him, which in particular required correcting the perspective of the tiles because the snapshots are not perfectly perpendicular), without any direct examination of the bathmat on which the footprint was actually found.

The professor personally examined the bathmat .....​
 
1. Nope it's the bloody footprint. Hell they have PP on it and Mach has his own graphics. Even some of the PGP can see that the bra was collected late and the DNA isn't perfectly clear.

2. Curatolo is also big as it proves the kids were lying about being at Raf's.

1. Are you referring to the luminol hits that could be anything or the footprint on the bathmat which also could be anybody?
2. Do people really take the testimony of a heroine addict who most likely cannot tell the day of the week seriously?

I guess you are more or less agreeing with me in previous posts that people will take almost anything as evidence of guilt though.
 
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