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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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I wanted this as a separate item:

As far as changing positions, I have read a number of people who have started out on the pro guilt side and switched sides. . . . Granted, none seem heavily invested.
Argument comes down to basically no real evidence with what evidence there appears to be falls apart on closer examination

On the other side, are there any who started out pro innocence and have switched positions?
If so, what are their arguments? What convinced them?
 
I thought I'd got my head around this concept of, "is compatible with." I guess there's another lunch in the offing.

Could you counter an "is compatible with" with another "is compatible with"? For example:
  • Not hearing the phone ring is compatible with not answering it.
  • Being in the bathroom is compatible with not answering the phone.
  • Nodding off while watching TV is compatible with not hearing the phone ring.
  • Taking the garbage out is compatible with not hearing the phone ring.
 
I prefer 'probative' to 'compatible'. In fact, until this case, I had never heard of the latter being used in this context. But let's have none of this 'adding up probabilities' nonsense. The next thing will be bloody Bayesian statistics and I'll really start doing my nut. Psuedo-scientific cobblers for people who can't use ordinary words to express degrees of likelihood.

This is more like it. Look at the totality of the evidence and see what it tells you.

I'm wheeling out the case of David Gillroy once more because it is perfectly illustrative of what a circumstantial case looks like. He was convicted of murdering his former lover despite her body never being found. It's a Scottish case with these circumstantial elements:

1 he was a married man having a secret affair with the victim, Suzanne Pilley but she had broken things off shortly before and begun another relationship (motive - jealousy)

2 she arrived at work on the day she disappeared (CCTV) but never reached her desk (sudden and out of character disappearance suggesting violent end)

3 until that day, he had been sending her hundreds of text messages but then suddenly stopped (knowledge of her death)

4 that day or the next he bought a large quantity of air freshener (to erase evidence of disposal of the body)

5 he made a trip into the Scottish Highlands to a particular destination but the journey took a couple of hours longer than it should (disposal and concealment of body)

6 when questioned by police it was noticed that he had scratched on his hands and face which he had tried to mask with make up (involvement in violence, concealment)

7 (presumably as he did not testify and called no evidence, I think) no alibi

Look at each point individually, forgetting about the rest. Each can be innocently explained. This is normal. Cumulatively, however, they all point the same way and paint a clear picture. He attacked her in the basement of her office building, put her in his car, drove into the highlands and buried her. None of these facts could be directly proved. There are no contrary indicators (as there could be for each point and as Tesla lists above).

Forget about 'adding up probabilities'. That is a needless abstraction. When I catch a ball, I don't work out the maths: the precise trajectory, velocity, the mechanical movement of arms and fingers etc. I can catch the ball without all that crap. Likewise, there is no need to calculate the likelihood of a man innocently buying a large quantity of air freshener on a particular day, even if such a fanciful computation were possible (which it isn't) and add that to the probability that he might also innocently choose to stop texting someone. All pie in the sky. Go to a British court and see how it's done. No lawyer I know would bother with such nonsense.

Gilroy is appealing his conviction btw.

Even considering Anglo, that this may be enough evidence to convict someone, it is 50 times more than what they have on Amanda and Raffaele. Also, as we have noted there are many many pieces of evidence that actually point to their innocence.

The so called "compatible" evidence against Amanda is not really significant. Unlike Gilroy and Scott Peterson. Amanda is not married to Meredith, she is not involved with Meredith, she is a new roommate of Meredith's. There is no financial motive or issues to dissolve her new relationship with Meredith. There is no motive of any kind to even begin to suspect Amanda and Raffaele. That in of itself is a hole in the case large enough to drive a truck through.

What is their evidence against Amanda and Raffaele?

1. Luminol footprints that tested NEGATIVE for blood.
2. A bloody footprint on a bathmat that could be Raffaele, Rudy or actually anyone since it was in fact only compared to possible prints.
3. A statement which turns out to be totally false that was made in the middle of the night which in fact has been ruled inadmissible.
4. Testimony from three witnesses that are highly suspect because of when they came forward not to mention their content.
5. LCN DNA that has never been confirmed or repeated in a lab not qualified to perform LCN testing and which continues to hide the EDF files. DNA from evidence that was collected by police wearing dirty gloves in a very weird manner.

What is the evidence that is exculpatory or actually proves their innocence?

1. Amanda and Meredith were friends. (If they weren't, why would they sign off their text messages with kisses?)
2. No DNA, footprints or fingerprints belonging to Amanda or Raffaele in the murder room contrasting with the dozen pieces of evidence linking Rudy to the murder.
3.No time to bond with the other suspects. (8 days for Raffaele.) Maybe an hour with very little conversation at all with Rudy (12 days before the murder)
4. Not a single email, text, or phone call to or from Rudy to either Amanda or Raffaele. EVER.
5. Rudy's original Skype call statement where he said Amanda had nothing to do with the murder.
6. Rudy's history of breaking into homes and businesses.
7. Rudy's absurd stories..that changed and changed and change except for one thing. The time of death
8. The Time of Death which should definitely exclude the possibility that Amanda and Raffaele could have been involved. The digestive evidence and Rudy's statements about Meredith's time of death and the Naruto evidence should exclude them.
 
You just need to learn a bit of the rules, Skind. This applies to all your "logical" argumentations, including the last one where you were attributing to me strange statements and drawing out some strange inference.
You just need to understand "accusation versus defence" is not the only principle of a trial. There is a set of principles, or rules and a procedure, the players know in advance, and their moves are in function of this pre-existing set; like in a sport game the meaning of each "move" (or "lack" of move) is to be read through the lenses of the principles and rules of what you are playing. The rules and techniques determine what a player is supposed to do, what needs to do if he aims to a certain goal or follow a certain strategy. You need to understand a little of the rules if you want to understand when a player is having a weak game or a strong one.

Was De Nunzio who, according to you, manipulated Perugian court process by having Judge Hellmann appointed to try the first appeal - having a weak game or a strong game?

Can you fill in the details of your conspiracy theory about how Perugian courts are corrupt like this, and how Wladimiro De Nunzio, President of the Court of Appeal, fits in?
 
What is their evidence against Amanda and Raffaele?

1. Luminol footprints that tested NEGATIVE for blood.
2. A bloody footprint on a bathmat that could be Raffaele, Rudy or actually anyone since it was in fact only compared to possible prints.3. A statement which turns out to be totally false that was made in the middle of the night which in fact has been ruled inadmissible.
4. Testimony from three witnesses that are highly suspect because of when they came forward not to mention their content.
5. LCN DNA that has never been confirmed or repeated in a lab not qualified to perform LCN testing and which continues to hide the EDF files. DNA from evidence that was collected by police wearing dirty gloves in a very weird manner.

What is the evidence that is exculpatory or actually proves their innocence?

1. Amanda and Meredith were friends. (If they weren't, why would they sign off their text messages with kisses?)
2. No DNA, footprints or fingerprints belonging to Amanda or Raffaele in the murder room contrasting with the dozen pieces of evidence linking Rudy to the murder.
3.No time to bond with the other suspects. (8 days for Raffaele.) Maybe an hour with very little conversation at all with Rudy (12 days before the murder)
4. Not a single email, text, or phone call to or from Rudy to either Amanda or Raffaele. EVER.
5. Rudy's original Skype call statement where he said Amanda had nothing to do with the murder.
6. Rudy's history of breaking into homes and businesses.
7. Rudy's absurd stories..that changed and changed and change except for one thing. The time of death
8. The Time of Death which should definitely exclude the possibility that Amanda and Raffaele could have been involved. The digestive evidence and Rudy's statements about Meredith's time of death and the Naruto evidence should exclude them.

The only expert who saw the bathmat, rather than photographs of it, kept making the point that this was a foot-track, not a foot-print. Forensicly the difference is all the difference in the world.

He also made the point that it was useless to determine the identity of the track's owner through photographs, mainly because of the uneven, absorbent nature of the "medium" on which the track was captured.

I think of this each time Machiavelli posts a photo of the foot-track with measurements to prove something that the experts say cannot be proven by the very nature of what's before them.
 
I agree. A much-discussed case over at Injustice Anywhere. It would have been interesting to see whether they could have convicted him without finding the bodies of his wife and unborn child. They obviously judged they could not but I suspect it would have been a close run thing.

Don't get me and Williams started on this one.

Anglo hates being wrong. We talked about this F-t-F a while ago. Amongst the injured were......
 
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I prefer 'probative' to 'compatible'. In fact, until this case, I had never heard of the latter being used in this context. But let's have none of this 'adding up probabilities' nonsense. The next thing will be bloody Bayesian statistics and I'll really start doing my nut. Psuedo-scientific cobblers for people who can't use ordinary words to express degrees of likelihood.

This is more like it. Look at the totality of the evidence and see what it tells you.

I'm wheeling out the case of David Gillroy once more because it is perfectly illustrative of what a circumstantial case looks like. He was convicted of murdering his former lover despite her body never being found. It's a Scottish case with these circumstantial elements:

1 he was a married man having a secret affair with the victim, Suzanne Pilley but she had broken things off shortly before and begun another relationship (motive - jealousy)

2 she arrived at work on the day she disappeared (CCTV) but never reached her desk (sudden and out of character disappearance suggesting violent end)

3 until that day, he had been sending her hundreds of text messages but then suddenly stopped (knowledge of her death)

4 that day or the next he bought a large quantity of air freshener (to erase evidence of disposal of the body)

5 he made a trip into the Scottish Highlands to a particular destination but the journey took a couple of hours longer than it should (disposal and concealment of body)

6 when questioned by police it was noticed that he had scratched on his hands and face which he had tried to mask with make up (involvement in violence, concealment)

7 (presumably as he did not testify and called no evidence, I think) no alibi

Look at each point individually, forgetting about the rest. Each can be innocently explained. This is normal. Cumulatively, however, they all point the same way and paint a clear picture. He attacked her in the basement of her office building, put her in his car, drove into the highlands and buried her. None of these facts could be directly proved. There are no contrary indicators (as there could be for each point and as Tesla lists above).

Forget about 'adding up probabilities'. That is a needless abstraction. When I catch a ball, I don't work out the maths: the precise trajectory, velocity, the mechanical movement of arms and fingers etc. I can catch the ball without all that crap. Likewise, there is no need to calculate the likelihood of a man innocently buying a large quantity of air freshener on a particular day, even if such a fanciful computation were possible (which it isn't) and add that to the probability that he might also innocently choose to stop texting someone. All pie in the sky. Go to a British court and see how it's done. No lawyer I know would bother with such nonsense.

Gilroy is appealing his conviction btw.

Really interesting case & analysis. I was waffling throughout, though leaning towards concluding guilt, yet wondering if those inferences are legit in the context of a court case.

So I was struck by DF's comment:

I read some of the exchange . . . . .
One item, while I am against the Death Penalty, even if I was Pro Death Penalty [I used to be just barely pro Death Penalty], I would not like putting him on Death Row on the evidence although I would likely have convicted him of murder.

Is the standard "proof beyond reasonable doubt", or "good enough to jail" but not "good enough to kill"? Is there more than one standard of proof or "guilt"?

(Did I misunderstand DF's comment? It caught my attention, because I think I would have voted Gilroy guilty too, but felt a little queasy about it. The 'Central Park Five' comes to mind, and the reported jury deliberations therein. Could Gilroy be innocent? How can there be "No Alibi", he was somewhere).

A case that keeps being brought up in relation to Italy and the US, is the Chico Forte case in Florida.

Also largely circumstantial, and many people suggest a wrongful conviction. Wondering if you have an opinion on it.
 
What if the evidence had been that he always answered his phone? The fact is that if you pile up enough of this stuff you can prove a case well enough. It is normal for individual items of circumstantial evidence to be pretty meaningless when viewed in isolation.

I think that circumstantial evidence should have two categories at least. Hard circumstantial such as finger prints, DNA associated directly with the crime (semen in and on the body, fingerprints in blood or in a place the suspect had only a reason to be if involved in the crime, bullet from a gun owned by the suspect etc.) and soft circumstantial such as phone patterns, general behavior, etc.

In this case the phone activity is not consistent with a planned murder as they would have left the phones on but at Raf's.
 
Is the standard "proof beyond reasonable doubt", or "good enough to jail" but not "good enough to kill"? Is there more than one standard of proof or "guilt"?

(Did I misunderstand DF's comment? It caught my attention, because I think I would have voted Gilroy guilty too, but felt a little queasy about it. The 'Central Park Five' comes to mind, and the reported jury deliberations therein. Could Gilroy be innocent? How can there be "No Alibi", he was somewhere).

A case that keeps being brought up in relation to Italy and the US, is the Chico Forte case in Florida.

Also largely circumstantial, and many people suggest a wrongful conviction. Wondering if you have an opinion on it.

I have this personal classification of "No Doubt" which I guess I reserve for only a very few people. In most cases, in my mind, this is reserved for serial killers with multiple bodies definitively linked to them. My position on the death penalty however has evolved and now I am against the death penalty although cannoot really cry cry about (for example) John Allen Muhammad being executed.

I can play around with thoughts and find some way of finding possible doubt with virtually any case otherwise.
 
I think that circumstantial evidence should have two categories at least. Hard circumstantial such as finger prints, DNA associated directly with the crime (semen in and on the body, fingerprints in blood or in a place the suspect had only a reason to be if involved in the crime, bullet from a gun owned by the suspect etc.) and soft circumstantial such as phone patterns, general behavior, etc.

In this case the phone activity is not consistent with a planned murder as they would have left the phones on but at Raf's.

The cell phone argument does not work in either a case of "Sex game gone wrong" or "argument over money gone wrong" anyway. In either cases, they did not expect to be killing Meredeth so why either turn off their phones or not bring them?
 
My account of Gilroy was not in all respects correct, as his unsuccessful appeal records, but it was good enough for expository purposes. However, the Gilroy judgment turns out to be highly interesting as a comparator on the witness/suspect and fair trial thing. Gilroy was interviewd at great length within a short period after the disappearance. Indeed, his first interview started shortly after midnight and ran through to the late morning. He was not cautioned nor invited to arrange legal representation. What follows are his counsel's submissions on this point, not the court's finding which was unfavourable to him. The whole judgment is an excellent discussion of the witness/suspect conundrum.

[37] The appellant presented his central argument on the basis that there had been an infringement of his Article 6 right to a fair trial rather than that the statements had been taken unfairly by the police and were therefore inadmissible at common law. He submitted that the trial judge had been in error in holding that, as at Tuesday, 6 May, the police did not have reasonable cause to suspect the appellant of a particular offence and that they would not have been able to inform him of the general nature of that offence. This error was demonstrated by the fact that there had been no material change in circumstances between that date and the time when the appellant's status had been officially changed. It was accepted that the crucial statement was the first one, taken over the period from midnight on Wednesday, 5 May, through to 11 am on Thursday, 6 May.
[38] Although the dividing line beyond which a witness became a suspect was a "fine one", and general principles of fairness had a bearing upon it, nevertheless the appellant had been a suspect by the time the first statement had been taken. That was so even if the general nature of the offence of which he was suspected may have been rather more vague than the eventual libel. The appellant could have been detained for abduction in terms of section 14 of the 1995 Act, where the requirement was only to specify "the general nature of the offence". Although it was accepted that the appellant had agreed to assist the police, that consent did not relieve the police of the obligation to caution a suspect before questioning him. It was not argued at the appeal that the circumstances involved such constraint that the appellant ought to have been given access to a lawyer.
[39] Contrary to the trial judge's views, the whole circumstances ought to have been considered, with the benefit of hindsight, when deciding whether someone had become, or ought to have been treated as, a suspect (Ambrose v Harris (supra), Lord Hope at para 62). On such a consideration, a person may become a suspect, and thus be entitled to the rights implicit in Article 6, at least to the extent of a caution being required, even if there was insufficient information to justify detention (ibid, Lord Hope at paras 67-69). There were a number of significant factors which pointed towards the appellant being regarded as a suspect, not least the involvement of CID officers at an early stage. Leaving aside the immediately known facts, the early investigation quickly reduced the likelihood of any legitimate explanation existing for the disappearance of the deceased. The circumstances were suspicious from a very early stage. It was necessary to consider the realities of the situation (Artico v Italy (1981) 3 EHRR 1 at para 33).
[40] Ambrose v Harris (supra) made it clear that the rights implicit in Article 6 became active in stages. The first of these stages involved the caution. That stage occurred as soon as Article 6 became engaged. It could occur before the point of detention or arrest, since Article 6 afforded rights to those who had been "charged" with a criminal offence (Imbrioscia v Switzerland (1994) 17 EHRR 441 at para 36; Zaichenko v Russia (supra) at para 42; and Serves v France (1999) 28 EHRR 265 at paras 40-42). The word "charge" had been defined as being "the official notification given to an individual by the competent authority of an allegation that he has committed a criminal offence" and this corresponded to the point when "the situation of the suspect has been substantially affected" (Deweer v Belgium (1980) 2 EHRR 439 at para 46; Eckle v Germany (1983) 5 EHRR 1 at para 73; Burns v HM Advocate 2010 SC (PC) 26). A substantive, rather than a formal approach, was required (Subinski v Slovenia, ECtHR, unreported, 18 January 2007, (no. 19611/04), at paras 62-63; Foti v Italy (1982) 5 EHRR 313 at para 52). A suspect's position was substantially affected as soon as the suspicion against him was being seriously investigated and the prosecution case compiled (Ambrose v Harris (supra) Lord Hope at para [62]). A person was the subject of a "charge" when a preliminary investigation had been opened and the person, although not under arrest, had officially learned of the investigation or had begun to be affected by it. The relevant moment may be the first interrogation, or interview, by the police (Howarth v United Kingdom (2000) 31 EHRR 861, at para 20; Martins and Garcia Alves v Portugal, ECtHR, unreported, 16 November 2000, (no. 37528/97), at paras 19-20; Kangasluona v Finland, ECtHR, unreported, 20 January 2004, (no. 48339/99), at para 26; and Yankov and Manchev v Bulgaria, ECtHR, unreported, 22 October 2009, (no. 27207/04), at paras 18 and 24).

Btw. for those not interested in reading the judgment itself, his statements were exculpatory. He made no confession and the court ruled that he would have had an even weaker case without them. This is one massive difference with our case. Another is that the police did not know what crime they were investigating, nor even whether a crime had been committed at all. A point for Mach to note is that it is (of course) substance not form that counts.
 
I think that circumstantial evidence should have two categories at least. Hard circumstantial such as finger prints, DNA associated directly with the crime (semen in and on the body, fingerprints in blood or in a place the suspect had only a reason to be if involved in the crime, bullet from a gun owned by the suspect etc.) and soft circumstantial such as phone patterns, general behavior, etc.

In this case the phone activity is not consistent with a planned murder as they would have left the phones on but at Raf's.

What do you propose to do with your categories? Life throws up infinite variations and combinations of fact that resist systemisation. Every case must be decided on its own facts. The circumstantial case against A and R is not just weak but non-existent, resting on a tissue of lies most of which, even if true, are mutually contradictory, exculpatory or simply impossible to reduce into a coherent and credible case. Contrast Gilroy and Scott Peterson. Even Bill should accept that the circumstances in Peterson allow one to construct a coherent narrative all pointing the same way, even if he doesn't think the result is enough to erase all reasonable doubt.
 
What do you propose to do with your categories? Life throws up infinite variations and combinations of fact that resist systemisation. Every case must be decided on its own facts. The circumstantial case against A and R is not just weak but non-existent, resting on a tissue of lies most of which, even if true, are mutually contradictory, exculpatory or simply impossible to reduce into a coherent and credible case. Contrast Gilroy and Scott Peterson. Even Bill should accept that the circumstances in Peterson allow one to construct a coherent narrative all pointing the same way, even if he doesn't think the result is enough to erase all reasonable doubt.

There also does not seem to be credible alternatives either with Peterson and (based on your posts) with Gilroy.
Edit: There is an extremely credible case with Amanda and Raff that Guede did it alone.
 
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Really interesting case & analysis. I was waffling throughout, though leaning towards concluding guilt, yet wondering if those inferences are legit in the context of a court case.

So I was struck by DF's comment:



Is the standard "proof beyond reasonable doubt", or "good enough to jail" but not "good enough to kill"? Is there more than one standard of proof or "guilt"?

(Did I misunderstand DF's comment? It caught my attention, because I think I would have voted Gilroy guilty too, but felt a little queasy about it. The 'Central Park Five' comes to mind, and the reported jury deliberations therein. Could Gilroy be innocent? How can there be "No Alibi", he was somewhere).

A case that keeps being brought up in relation to Italy and the US, is the Chico Forte case in Florida.

Also largely circumstantial, and many people suggest a wrongful conviction. Wondering if you have an opinion on it.

Sorry CJ but I don't know the Chico Forte case. What are the brief facts?

On the DP thing, it's existence reduced the Peterson trial to a farce. Same with Jodi Arias. Another reason to ditch this barbarian aspect of the law in those US states which retain it (not to mention the Byzantine and incomprehensible appeal system that flourishes because of it).
 
What do you propose to do with your categories? Life throws up infinite variations and combinations of fact that resist systemisation. Every case must be decided on its own facts. The circumstantial case against A and R is not just weak but non-existent, resting on a tissue of lies most of which, even if true, are mutually contradictory, exculpatory or simply impossible to reduce into a coherent and credible case. Contrast Gilroy and Scott Peterson. Even Bill should accept that the circumstances in Peterson allow one to construct a coherent narrative all pointing the same way, even if he doesn't think the result is enough to erase all reasonable doubt.

Far be it for me to take Grinder's side on anything, but for us giant unwashed with little to no legal training, he's pretty much summarized the way us outside the hallowed halls think.

If you don't like it, quit dragging us off the street to form juries. Why is it that you lot (you lawyers, I mean) at the end turn the whole thing over to us and say, "you decide!" You drag us off the street, the judge threatens us with contempt if we try to wriggle out of jury duty.....

.... then at the end the judge reads a 30 page treatise on fine points of "beyond reasonable doubt" and what constitutes circumstantial evidence in language trained philosophers wouldn't use..... bafflegab, really.

Then they lock us in a room, all twelve of us, and if we're lucky we get to pass a note out to the judge once in a while. "What was that bit about circumstantial evidence again? And can you use one-syllable words, judge?"

I'm with Grinder. The world might not divide itself neatly into these categories, but on the 30th day that I'm separated from my family eating stale donuts and drinking bad coffee brought in by a humourless sheriff, I'm going to pass on the philosophical fine points the lawyers (4 weeks ago) piledon to our feeble brains, and I'm going to declare a truce with fellow panel-member Grinder and ask, "Run that bit by me again on soft and hard circumstantial evidence? The $50 a day we're getting here is not paying the rent....."

As for that other case, there is no evidence, really, that that was a murder. At most SP should have been convicted of illegally disposing of a corpse, and, of course, of being a philandering swine. For all anyone knows, the poor young woman could have drowned in the pool, and SP panicked. This has the added benefit of being consistent with California law, which the judge reminded the jury, "If you can think of two equally likely scenarios, you must choose the one which acquits."

Please let me repeat, SP is a swine. I feel the need to say this because people think I' defending *him*, whereas I tell myself that I'm defending a principle. I actually do not care that he's currently rotting in prison; that is fitting punishment for being a pig.

So, when you legal professionals stop dragging me and Grinder off the street and throwing legalese-baffle-gab at us, and then criticize us when we throw up our hands and say, "I think they're innocent, even if I cannot give a coherent definition of circumstantial evidence....."

..... that's when I'll stop flooding forums like this with lay-knowledge that struggles with this stuff.

I'm not mad, really. But at the end of the day you people DO throw it in our laps, don't you!? And in Canada, it's actually illegal for me to tell anyone why I came to the decision I did with my 11 counterparts. (It saves on having the professiona legal people wince in pain at the reasons we chose....)
 
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Sorry CJ but I don't know the Chico Forte case. What are the brief facts?

On the DP thing, it's existence reduced the Peterson trial to a farce. Same with Jodi Arias. Another reason to ditch this barbarian aspect of the law in those US states which retain it (not to mention the Byzantine and incomprehensible appeal system that flourishes because of it).

Yes, Death Penalty is tragic in the US. But we loves us our guns, and half the US doesn't believe in evolution last I heard (including possibly, former president GW Bush, jr, but I can't even believe that's true).

--------
Chico Forte -

I don't have a great grasp of the details, I'd hate to misstate it. Hoping someone else has a better handle and can give a quick review. Or I'll come back with a quick outline.
(OK, this is bad, I just copy pasted from Italian wikipedia below, crunched through google translate, is that wrong?)

or a much longer explanation at this site: http://www.chicoforti.com/?q=node/26

From What I Recall: The weird thing was Chico picked up a guy at the airport, then dropped him off at a restaurant parking at his request to meet some friends, and the guy was killed a short time later, execution style. Police used Chico Forte's cell phone (I believe) to place him "in the area", but not at the crime. Chico had lied about picking up the guy at the airport I think. It's a convoluted backstory of real estate swindling, and Forte was a champion wind surfer, so its a weird story. Forte's downstairs neighbor was somehow involved, and the local prosecutor was in some way especially sketchy. Wish I had a better review -

Here's the Italian Wikipedia version - not much there, and it translates his name "Forte" as literally "Strong" so it reads a little goofy.

Court case [ change | change source ]
In February 1998 Dale Pike, son of Anthony Pike, from whom he was purchasing the Chico Pikes Hotel, Ibiza, is found murdered on the beach Sewer Beach, Miami. Chico is accused of being part in this felony murder, a murder committed during the execution of a crime (in our case the scam since Strong was cheating Pike father) and in 2000 [8] is sentenced to life imprisonment without it being given the opportunity to "parole" (LWOP). He is currently serving his sentence in the Dade Correctional Institution in Florida City . The supposed accomplices in the murder of Dale Strong Pike were never found. Chico Forti claiming to be the victim of a miscarriage of justice .

Ferdinando Imposimato , his Italian lawyer and criminologist Roberta Bruzzone [9] presented in May 2012 a report to the then Foreign Minister Giulio Maria Terzi di Sant'Agata [10] which contains the reasons for the request for review. The next Minister Emma Bonino , expressed the active involvement of the Italian Government on the case Forti. Many showbiz personalities including Fiorello [11] , Jovanotti [12] and Red Ronnie [13] have joined a movement of opinion to request a review of the process.

The request for a new trial can only take place on the basis of "newly discovered evidence": a new test is crucial that, if presented at trial, it could change the outcome, and that is proven, it could not be found at time of the process. All tests that have passed or could pass before a court are procedural defaulted and do not apply.
 
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Far be it for me to take Grinder's side on anything, but for us giant unwashed with little to no legal training, he's pretty much summarized the way us outside the hallowed halls think.

If you don't like it, quit dragging us off the street to form juries. Why is it that you lot (you lawyers, I mean) at the end turn the whole thing over to us and say, "you decide!" You drag us off the street, the judge threatens us with contempt if we try to wriggle out of jury duty.....

.... then at the end the judge reads a 30 page treatise on fine points of "beyond reasonable doubt" and what constitutes circumstantial evidence in language trained philosophers wouldn't use..... bafflegab, really.

Then they lock us in a room, all twelve of us, and if we're lucky we get to pass a note out to the judge once in a while. "What was that bit about circumstantial evidence again? And can you use one-syllable words, judge?"

I'm with Grinder. The world might not divide itself neatly into these categories, but on the 30th day that I'm separated from my family eating stale donuts and drinking bad coffee brought in by a humourless sheriff, I'm going to pass on the philosophical fine points the lawyers (4 weeks ago) piledon to our feeble brains, and I'm going to declare a truce with fellow panel-member Grinder and ask, "Run that bit by me again on soft and hard circumstantial evidence? The $50 a day we're getting here is not paying the rent....."

As for that other case, there is no evidence, really, that that was a murder. At most SP should have been convicted of illegally disposing of a corpse, and, of course, of being a philandering swine. For all anyone knows, the poor young woman could have drowned in the pool, and SP panicked. This has the added benefit of being consistent with California law, which the judge reminded the jury, "If you can think of two equally likely scenarios, you must choose the one which acquits."

Please let me repeat, SP is a swine. I feel the need to say this because people think I' defending *him*, whereas I tell myself that I'm defending a principle. I actually do not care that he's currently rotting in prison; that is fitting punishment for being a pig.

So, when you legal professionals stop dragging me and Grinder off the street and throwing legalese-baffle-gab at us, and then criticize us when we throw up our hands and say, "I think they're innocent, even if I cannot give a coherent definition of circumstantial evidence....."

..... that's when I'll stop flooding forums like this with lay-knowledge that struggles with this stuff.

I'm not mad, really. But at the end of the day you people DO throw it in our laps, don't you!? And in Canada, it's actually illegal for me to tell anyone why I came to the decision I did with my 11 counterparts. (It saves on having the professiona legal people wince in pain at the reasons we chose....)

I would have stronger opinions about the jury system if I ever saw some juries in operation. Being a lawyer is no guarantee against stupidity, as this case (A & R) shows. I suppose one of its justifications has more to do with being tried by ones peers in preference to state functionaries. The theory is that jurors are supposed to pool their experience and good sense but how that plays out in practise I'm not sure. Sometimes one has the feeling that jurors are reluctant to acquit in the most serious cases due to placing too much trust in the competence and integrity of or being awed by the prosecution.

ETA and you're wrong about Peterson.
 
There also does not seem to be credible alternatives either with Peterson and (based on your posts) with Gilroy.
Edit: There is an extremely credible case with Amanda and Raff that Guede did it alone.
Nothing conflicts with this theory except, perhaps, the unexplored avenues that interest RWVBWL, Cody and a few others here, none of which have anything to do with A & R.
 
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