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OOS Collapse Propagation Model

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Beachie... I don't dispute the value of math for analysis and modeling the world... I jsut don't find the Bazant stuff terribly relevant to explaining the twin tower collapses. It doesn't surprise me in the least that if you drop a huge mass 12 feet it would destroy a steel frame structure. But that is hardly what happened... or maybe you saw something different?
It is hard to jump from the abstraction of math/physics to the real world, don't worry, that is why they hire engineers.

The collapse part, needs no modeling, it was seen with two full up models on 911. Makes the OOS model/book conclusion free BS.

... oops, a big mass did fall 12 feet, and it did destroy the entire building. Is 12 feet 3.7 meters. Then it fell another 12 feet ... etc


I did see a big mass fall. When did you figure out Gage's CD claims were fantasy.
How long before you believed it was impact and fires? 19 terrorists?
 
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Yeah, again, because if the absolute best casr scenario, of having all load of the falling mass being on the columns, could not arrest collapse, then there is no case to be made for demolition.

Simple concept. Bazant's calcs demonstrate no demolition was required. That is in no way suggesting that Bazant's model is what really happened.
Interesting discussion.
Doesn't Bazant suppose that the top section falls approx 13ft with no resistance before impacting the lower section?
 
Interesting discussion.
Doesn't Bazant suppose that the top section falls approx 13ft with no resistance before impacting the lower section?

Does he? Show the specific part where Bazant says it; use a statement instead of question. Engineers answer their questions, don't they? Yes. See, it work.

Why does 911 truth mention Bazant? It exposes their ignorance in models, a general lack of engineering at best, and makes their CD claims dumber.
omg, I answered a question again.
 
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Hang on, you just said...

You should review both Bazants work and the video you cite.
It may help clear your confusion.
You sure it's 12ft?
It was less than an inch at firs, the inches, then feet, then ... did you watch the video, it will clear your confusion. Do you have the silent explosives fantasy, or the no product low temperature thermite fantasy.

The big mass fell a lot further, a few inches, then a foot, then 10, 12, 100, etc, to the ground. No CD, only gravity.

No CD, does that clear up your confusion. no
 
Interesting discussion.
Doesn't Bazant suppose that the top section falls approx 13ft with no resistance before impacting the lower section?
There is a level of irony in these recent discussions at least back to where I bailed out in frustration. It seems that many people have "swapped sides". The (alleged) truthers side getting the key points right - and a lot of debunker side missing the point plus rewrites of history.

Leave those aside. You gerrycan - given your normal perspective on these issues - may be amused by two bits of related irony:

1) Whatever the abstract limiting case assumption Bazant correctly used for his B&Z 2001-2002 papers was the assumption than T Sz imported improperly as the starting point premise when he went looking for the "Jolt That Never Could Be" AKA the alleged "Missing Jolt" in the real event. Mixing "abstract" limit case assumptions into a real event analysis. Which, coincidently or not, is the central issue which is still being missed, overlooked or denied here.

2) The recent Sz, Sz and J paper claims that Bazant's quantification of the available energy was wrong. Whether the claim is correct or not I couldn't care less (Or is that "could care less" in US idiom??)- it hasn't been rebutted OR confirmed AFAIK.

And there are multiple other "could have been" ironies which flow.

If there had never been B&Z 2001-2 - no "limit case" to confuse the abstract modellers - THEN we may have tried explaining the real collapse mechanisms earlier. We wouldn't have needed a thread explaining the Applicability of Bazant's model to the real world And all the "we always understood" claims would be moot and all the denials that there was extensive confusion would never have occurred. Whether there was confusion or not.

Enjoy yourself. :)
 
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Come on... this limiting case is not useful at all in understanding how the structure DID fail/collapse. The mappings of movements of the building components is far more useful.

Why this paper is cited as a basis for understanding the event is a mystery to me. Really... who the eff cares?

When the towers came down people wanted an explanation. Mr. B did not give anything close one. I find it a huge distraction.

Your opinion is noted.

I did not understand Bazants papers to ever be an end all be all of what really happened( to use the phrase that ozeco does)
This particular paper illustrates that the dynamic forces involved would be sufficient to buckle columns.

Another paper calculated that dynamic forces were 30 times greater than the forces the floor space was capable of handling.

At the point that tower collapses initiated, everyone above that failure level was doomed. Even if collapse arrested they had little to no chance of survival.
Does an engineering code change designed to arrest such a collapse after it initiates make sense? No!
Code changes designed to slow progression of damage that results in the initial collapse, or prevents it altogether, makes more sense. The best bet is to design better egress so as to reduce the probability of loss of egress ability from upper levels.

Bazant answered a question: why did this progress beyond initial failure?

He did not answer 'how did it progress post-initiation?", nor did he seek to do so.

NIST OTOH had determined that progressive floor collapse, what MT calls ROOSD, what you call " vertical avalanche", was the primary driver of progression through global collapse.
 
Interesting discussion.
Doesn't Bazant suppose that the top section falls approx 13ft with no resistance before impacting the lower section?

In his calcs Bazant assumes a drop of the height of one level, 12 feet/4 meters.
ONCE again though, Bazant is not stating that he is determining what exactly happened.

Was the drop a full level height? Nope, probably not. This is evidenced by the creep of perimeter columns and tilt of the upper structure prior to initiation. That requires, bleedingly obvious perhaps, that at least some portions of the upper section were less than that height between some floors while other locations were slightly more distance. However, if you wish to precisely model this part of collapse then it should be noted that if a section is tilting and continuing to do so, then when columns fail and collapse initiates, these sections have an initial velocity. Modeling that exactly is not necessary for what Bazant was doing.

Some people on both sides have assumed , erroneously, that Bazant was declaring a collapse progression sequence.

IMO, even "crush up" and "crush down" are misunderstood. IMO, what really happened was a rather chaotic and rapid disintegration of structure. At some point the entire "upper" section was a collection of broken concrete and sections of steel no longer connected to each other. "Crush" carries with it unrealistic and erroneous connotations, but its good for an approximation, or quick description where a more detailed, accurate description would be lengthy, and a precise one unattainable.
 
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Come on... this limiting case is not useful at all in understanding how the structure DID fail/collapse.
True Sander BUT unless explained simply and explicitly it could add to the confusion.
The mappings of movements of the building components is far more useful...
Could be true for some people. Not so for me. Not necessary for anyone. I, for one, had worked out the "Three Mechanisms" of Twin towers progression before I became aware of M_T's "mappings" and those detailed mappings add nothing to my hypotheses. They may assist others including M_T himself. It depends on the approach to reasoning taken by each person.

Jaydeehess has the main points clear:
...I did not understand Bazants papers to ever be an end all be all of what really happened( to use the phrase that ozeco does)
This particular paper illustrates that the dynamic forces involved would be sufficient to buckle columns.
(Attribution appreciated - no royalties apply ;))

The main point, one of three which have once again become confused in recent commentary, is that Bazant assumed column buckling. "what really happened©" did not involve column buckling. AND any explanation which involves column buckling OR attempts explanations or quantified calculations of the real event based on the need to buckle columns is simply wrong. Including all those multitude of claims/posts which got "right answers for wrong reasons".

Elements of Bazant's abstract models CANNOT* be mixed and matched with arguments about "what really happened©".

"Limit case" - YES, "Mix and Match" NO!

Another paper calculated that dynamic forces were 30 times greater than the forces the floor space was capable of handling.
I determined 30 to 50 times by ball park "guestimation" when I first looked atthat issue in early 2008. ad it is so ?"overwhelming" that greater precision is not needed - on this aspect.
At the point that tower collapses initiated, everyone above that failure level was doomed. Even if collapse arrested they had little to no chance of survival.
Does an engineering code change designed to arrest such a collapse after it initiates make sense? No!
Code changes designed to slow progression of damage that results in the initial collapse, or prevents it altogether, makes more sense. The best bet is to design better egress so as to reduce the probability of loss of egress ability from upper levels.

Bazant answered a question: why did this progress beyond initial failure?

He did not answer 'how did it progress post-initiation?", nor did he seek to do so.

NIST OTOH had determined that progressive floor collapse, what MT calls ROOSD, what you call " vertical avalanche", was the primary driver of progression through global collapse.
clap.gif
clap.gif




* Please forgive the deliberate hyperbole of the "global" claim but the limited exceptions are way outside the scope of the current discussion.
 
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Why all the fuss about drop height?

It couldn't be arrested after 1.2cm of fall.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7559375#post7559375

ETA: That's 0.47 in. for those who have trouble with the metric system.
Agreed.

Especially when "drop height" is an assumption of the Bazant abstract model and not a feature of "what really happened".

And IIRC Bazant concluded - (words to the effect of) "didn't need a full storey" -- "as long as the impact was dynamic?" which is essentially what the 1.2cm says.
 
Jaydeehess has the main points clear:
(Attribution appreciated - no royalties apply ;))

The main point, one of three which have once again become confused in recent commentary, is that Bazant assumed column buckling. "what really happened©" did not involve column buckling. AND any explanation which involves column buckling OR attempts explanations or quantified calculations of the real event based on the need to buckle columns is simply wrong. Including all those multitude of claims/posts which got "right answers for wrong reasons".
]
Part of the confusion , imo, results from the conflation of initiation events with progression. Initiation of collapse sequence DOES involve column buckling. If nothing else illustrates this, the perimeter column inward bowing/creep does. Even then, the single last failure before collapse "release" could well have been a floor failure.

Again my humble opinion, but its the frustrating rise of what I term "binary thinking", that contributes to this greatly. The reasoning , if thats what we can call it, goes like this:
Columns failed at initiation therefore columns failure continued.
You refer to this as simplly not thinking.

ROOSD makes little sense to the binary thinker. Columns hold buildings up, therefore collapse must involve loss of columns. Floors don't hold buildings up therefore floor loss means nothing. Therefore only column loss could be responsible for collapse.

Of course columns did fail during progression, but that was not the primary driver of progression. Column loss came after, and as a direct result of, floor losses.

That is another problem for the binary thinker. To them, collapse was strictly a top down floor by floor sequence. To them , envisioning floor collapse means a whole floor space collapsed at once, then another one, and columns failed at the same time. The "clap clap clap" nonsense of some years ago is a good demonstration of this.

In fact floor collapses led perimeter column peel off and core column Euler buckling
AND
was not likely ever an entire floor space falling all at once. The so called "squibs" demonstrate not only that floor failure was leading perimeter peel off, but also the variable location of the leading part of floor collapse.

Imho of course. I could be wrong.
 
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I highly doubt that the designers of the towers ever considered a scenario in which a vertical dynamic load from a mass as great as that of several storeys of the structure with any velocity.

Dynamic horizontal impact of an aircraft, quite possibly, but not the vertical movement of several storeys.

Not sure they could have designed to arrest such an event in the 70s. Not sure anyone could even today.
As I have said many times, the two things one can design for are , prevention of initial failure or slowing progression to that point,
and
fast, efficient, and reliable egress.
 
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Part of the confusion , imo, results from the conflation of initiation events with progression. Initiation of collapse sequence DOES involve column buckling. If nothing else illustrates this, the perimeter column inward bowing/creep does.
Agreed. Initiation was primarily a consequence of column failures. Whereas during progression columns were effectively bypassed - certainly for the perimeter and near certain for the core. "initiation" for "Twin Towers was without doubt a cascade failure AND essentially 3D. Two points about that statement:
1) It matters not whether there was or was not a "CD" contribution - it still was a 3D cascade. THEN
2) The biggest limitation on thinking - both sides - is inherent "1D" premise assumptions. Recall some of my "bleeding obvious" comments on two examples. "Missing Jolt" and the more generic debates about whether or not tilt would cause/prevent axial contact of the falling upper part of column.

Pure misapplication of Bazant's "falling start" limiting case assumptions. What caused "tilt" was failure of columns. More failed on the low side than on the high - hence that side got lower - hence "tilt". AND for that to happen the top end and bottom end of each failed column were closer together than they had been before failure. And (this is where I usually take a short cut) The ends had already moved past the point where axial impact was possible. Too late for the impact.

(That is not entirely why it is 3D rather than 1D but I'll leave it there - "cascade failure" CANNOT be explained in 1D ergo anyone trying to explain cascade in 1D will get it wrong.)

Put simply once tilt has occurred the scenario for axial impact of column ends is already gone. (There are IIRC three "yes buts" - all easy to dispose of so I'll leave the bare assertion stand.)

And "Missing Jolt" is merely a specific sub set of that broader logical error. In context of this current discussion T Szamboti tried "mix and match" - took the "falling top bit" of the Bazant abstract limit case model and literally applied it to a "real world" explanation. Doesn't work. but, more important, look how many took him on without questioning the false premises...all that wasted research looking for a big jolt which never could have been.

AND - it is setting the scenario .. no amount of math or FEA will correct the error of logical false starting point. That's part of the reason why a lot of detail focus engineers miss the point - forest v trees syndrome. Or rather alligators and swamps. That is better but not a perfect analogy - but...let's not derail.

Even then, the single last failure before collapse "release" could well have been a floor failure....
Could be - I've never considered it - cannot deny it.
...Again my humble opinion, but its the frustrating rise of what I term "binary thinking", that contributes to this greatly. The reasoning , if thats what we can call it, goes like this:
Columns failed at initiation therefore columns failure continued.
You refer to this as simply not thinking.
Yes. Recall my specific concern with "do not think" OR "cannot think" is integration of multiple factors into a coherent hypothesis. Most truthers - most truther claims - are about "single issue anomalies" which the truther cannot put into any sort of context. So reverses burden of proof to get us debunkers doing the thinking...
...ROOSD makes little sense to the binary thinker. Columns hold buildings up, therefore collapse must involve loss of columns. Floors don't hold buildings up therefore floor loss means nothing. Therefore only column loss could be responsible for collapse.
could well be a factor. My couple of recent posts in this thread directed at getting some base factors clear - not adding in more subtleties. The recent confusion mostly about losing the objective and forgetting the basics. Arguing about "my alligator had teeth before yours"...and forgetting "drain the swamp" - same disclaimer as previous for that analogy. :o
...Of course columns did fail during progression, but that was not the primary driver of progression. Column loss came after, and as a direct result of, floor losses.
Without doubt. And the value of M_T's OOS model was that it opened debate here when confusion of "real world" v "Bazant" was rife. Despite several members disagreeing with me. Read the start of this thread. And the "Applicabilty of Bazant..." thread.

That is another problem for the binary thinker. To them, collapse was strictly a top down floor by floor sequence. To them , envisioning floor collapse means a whole floor space collapsed at once, then another one, and columns failed at the same time. The "clap clap clap" nonsense of some years ago is a good demonstration of this.

In fact floor collapses led perimeter column peel off and core column Euler buckling
AND
was not likely ever an entire floor space falling all at once.
And that is one aspect where Major_Tom's excellent research is valuable for those who have a need for it. He has done work on "zonal collapse" - cannot remember exactly how he defined it. And everyone please note before you tear my head off. I referred to Major_Tom's technical research. Not his offensive style of posting or his persistent errors of logic. I ignore both.

The so called "squibs" demonstrate not only that floor failure was leading perimeter peel off, but also the variable location of the leading part of floor collapse.
Sure. and the "variability" does not change the principles. Similar reasoning to why I generally ignore "tilt" in arguing the transition from "initiation" to "progression". The tilt doesn't change the broad issues EXCEPT where the truther side claimant is confused by things like "how did it not topple" OR "how did it get back inside the lower tower" etc etc

Imho of course. I could be wrong.
Not likely - seeing you are mostly singing the same tune as me. :o :o

:D
 
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And the significance of ROOSD is that is a best fit to the collapse dynamics post initiation... something NIST and Mr B and of course the truther world simply ignore. It is derived from careful observation of the real world event and knowledge of the OOS structure... something almost anyone could have discovered. Several did arrive at it independently.

Obviously if there was a total collapse there was total column failure... but this does not mean all columns buckled and very few did. There was a failure because of connection failure, axial misalignment and Euler buckling of multi part columns which failed them at their connections. This was not the sort of buckling where you see web and flange crippling. Many core column lines did survive the floor collapse (ROOSD) only to succumb to Euler instability and break or topple over into pieces.
 
Oz, JSO, I envision Euler column buckling taking effect at column splices. This because that is the stiffest point and stressbuilds there

The column splices, which lack the strength to resist the full moment capacity of the column itself, are by definition less stiff than the column segment on either side of the joint.
 
Oz, JSO, I envision Euler column buckling taking effect at column splices. This because that is the stiffest point and stressbuilds there

The column splices are meant for bearing not for resisting bending.. and so that's where they multi part column will "buckle"... break the splice connections and hence all the nice neat full 36' lengths of columns in the the debris.

If you took a stack of "sticks" one atop the other and pressed down they would come apart not by bending in the middle of a stick but but breaking into the individual sticks.

No stress does not build in a column... it is pretty much uniformly distributed across its cross section.
 
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The column splices, which lack the strength to resist the full moment capacity of the column itself, are by definition less stiff than the column segment on either side of the joint.

Bad terminology. It cannot bend at the splices was what this non-engineer was contemplating. I was assuming an incorrect mode of failure at the correct location.

I see JSO added to your correction.

THX
 
NB The column to column splices were unrestrained and the braces 4' and 9' from the connections.... not a great thing to keep those connections from moving laterally...
 
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