Presidential Primaries 2016

[Upchurch]

hgc, is the list in any particular order, or just in the order you happened to add the names?

 

[hgc]

hgc, is the list in any particular order, or just in the order you happened to add the names?

Just the order they're added -- after the OP. In the OP, I tried to put apparent top contenders at the top of the list.

 

[hgc]

J. Bush will decide by end of year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-should-shun-harsh-immigration-rhetoric.html

Remember, in the 2012 cycle, they all waited well into the Spring of 2011 to wade in (or turn up their noses), but perhaps this time they'll get in earlier.

 

[hgc]

Oh my, we have a new entrant. It's Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee's 7th. If you don't know M. Blackburn, she's like Michelle Bachmann in her odious politics, but doesn't spout so much nutty gibberish as her Minnesota cousin. She's also the absolute darling of our own neighborhood Nazi.

http://crooksandliars.com/2014/04/tennessee-congresswoman-marsha-blackburn

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (again of Fox News)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders

 

[SezMe]

Uh-oh. Our favorite Florida knucklehead is making presidential noises. He's got a snowball's chance in hell so should he be on the list. Your call, hgc.

 

[hgc]

Thank you SezMe. How could we have been kept waiting so long for such a high profile narcissist to make the mundane claim that the voices in his head are telling him he's destined for great things?

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (again of Fox News)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders

 

[hgc]

It's been quite a while since we've had an entrant on the Dem side. Today brings us murmurings from Jim Webb, former Senator from Virginia and former Secretary of the Navy.

Color me skeptical. Sen Webb chose not to run for reelection (would have been a lock) after one term in the Senate. I just don't think he has the fire in the belly.

GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (again of Fox News)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown
J. Webb

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders

 

[SezMe]

hgc, here's an article to support your contention that Christie is toast. I'm still on the fence.

 

[hgc]

hgc, here's an article to support your contention that Christie is toast. I'm still on the fence.

Ha. And when I wrote above that he was toast, I didn't even consider the stuff in that article. But it shouldn't surprise. All his energies apparently go into political maneuvering, leaving competence and good government in the dust.

 

[Puppycow]

Rosa Brooks hops on the Hillary bandwagon, wishing she had voted for her in 2008:

Sorry, Hillary: I should have voted for you

Like many other once-ardent Obama supporters, I’ve spent the last five years with a mounting sensation of buyer’s remorse. “f Obama puts into his foreign policy strategy one-tenth of the talent, innovation and discipline he put into his campaign,” I wrote after the 2008 election, “he’ll be able to make real headway on a range of critical issues.” But maybe that grueling campaign just wore him out. In the Obama White House, innovation became reactiveness, discipline became rigidity, and a tight inner circle of campaign aides and Chicago pals tried to micro-manage the entire executive branch.

It’s been painful to watch the team that ran such a brilliant campaign flail around in search of a strategy, bungle their relationship with Congress, botch rollout after rollout, and miss opportunity after opportunity.

 

[jhunter1163]

Obviously, everyone is watching to see what Clinton does; she's a mortal lock to be the nominee if she runs (and, IMO, a mortal lock to win barring some fantastic misstep by her or Bubba). I think she will run; I'm not buying this "I wanna be a grandma" line she's putting out.

 

[Puppycow]

Obviously, everyone is watching to see what Clinton does; she's a mortal lock to be the nominee if she runs (and, IMO, a mortal lock to win barring some fantastic misstep by her or Bubba). I think she will run; I'm not buying this "I wanna be a grandma" line she's putting out.

Oh, she's running alright. There's a whole "Ready for Hillary" PAC already raising money for her.

One theory I heard (which I don't buy) is that Bill will do something to sabotage her campaign because he secretly doesn't want her to be president. Because Reasons (some psychodrama BS about how he doesn't want her to eclipse him).
So:
1) Will she run? Almost certainly yes; barring something really big (serious medical problem, say).
2) If she funds, will she win the primary? Again, almost certainly yes, barring something really unusual.
3) If she wins the nomination will she win the election? Probably.
They have to find something other than Benghazi to attack her with. That one plays well only to the Republican base.

Nothing has really changed in the polls over the last year or so.
http://www.pollingreport.com/2016.htm

 

[SezMe]

2) If she funds, will she win the primary? Again, almost certainly yes, barring something really unusual.

If she runs, there will be no primary. No Dem is going to challenge her. Anyway, there are no primaries in the presidential contest. I presume you mean the state-level elections/caucuses.

 

[Puppycow]

If she runs, there will be no primary. No Dem is going to challenge her. Anyway, there are no primaries in the presidential contest. I presume you mean the state-level elections/caucuses.

The primaries, sorry. Sorry for not self-checking what I wrote. I meant if she runs, but the autocorrect function betrayed me. And there are primaries in the presidential contest. Yes, some states have caucuses, but I didn't anticipate pedantic objections.

 

[hgc]

If she runs, there will be no primary. No Dem is going to challenge her. Anyway, there are no primaries in the presidential contest. I presume you mean the state-level elections/caucuses.

I'm thinking that B. Schweitzer is going to run against her. Probably a couple others too.

 

[Spindrift]

If she runs, there will be no primary. No Dem is going to challenge her. Anyway, there are no primaries in the presidential contest. I presume you mean the state-level elections/caucuses.

I will be astounded if someone doesn't challenge her for the Democratic nomination. She's not an incumbent and the Democrats last two winners were not the odds on nomination favorite two years out from the election.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

So:

1) Will she run? Almost certainly yes; barring something really big (serious medical problem, say).

2) If she funds, will she win the primary? Again, almost certainly yes, barring something really unusual.

3) If she wins the nomination will she win the election? Probably.

They have to find something other than Benghazi to attack her with. That one plays well only to the Republican base.

It's hard to disagree with any of this.

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

I will be astounded if someone doesn't challenge her for the Democratic nomination. She's not an incumbent and the Democrats last two winners were not the odds on nomination favorite two years out from the election.

This is largely true for both parties since ww2. The politicians who are gonna have a good shot are not out in the limelight attracting media feeding frenzies and digging up of past transgressions but quietly gathering backers.

 

[hgc]

This is largely true for both parties since ww2. The politicians who are gonna have a good shot are not out in the limelight attracting media feeding frenzies and digging up of past transgressions but quietly gathering backers.

There are so few presidential elections, it's hard to find patterns that lend true predictive power. Sure H. Clinton was the huge fave going into 2008, but the B. Obama wave, based on his unique persona, was a rare event -- lightning in a bottle. For the most part, there haven't been Dem nominees from out of left field, except perhaps J. Carter in '76. Of course the GOP has been more reliably nominating heirs-apparent and expected front-runners.

 

[hgc]

Oh my, are we not even going to get the chance to enjoy S. Walker on the campaign trail this cycle? The stench of scandal was never far behind in his rapid rise to prominence, but now it has come into full bloom.

If you'll recall, the governor easily weathered a recall effort a few years ago. But now prosecutors are alleging that he illegally coordinated spending among various right-wing groups. The best part is the letter he sent to Karl Rove describing his illegal efforts.

So, scratching S. Walker from the list.


GOP
P. Ryan
C. Christie
M. Rubio
J. Bush
M. Bachmann
W. "M." Romney
S. Palin (again of Fox News)
M. Huckabee
T. Pawlenty
J. Thune
S. Walker
D. Trump, President of Never Gonna Run for President (and Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
R. Paul (le fils)
J. DeMint
N. Haley
S. Martinez
R. Santorum
M. Pence
C. Rice
R. "T." Cruz
P. "B." Jindal
J. Brewer
J. Kasich
B. Carson
R. "B." McDonnell
J. Huntsman
T. Nugent (Celebrity Jokebag Contingent)
P. King
J. Bolton (Funny facial hair never wins)
H. Cain
J. Scarborough
M. Rogers
M. Blackburn
A. West

Dem
H. Clinton
J. Biden
M. Warner
M. O’Malley
A. Klobuchar
C. Booker
A. Villaraigosa
B. Schweitzer
K. Gillibrand
A. Cuomo
R. Emmanuel
M. Cantwell
E. Warren
Ju. Castro
D. Patrick
H. Dean
E.G. "J." Brown
J. Webb

Indeterminate
M. Bloomberg
J. Ventura
B. Sanders