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Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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Alec/Reality/Ice - take it elsewhere please ...getting puerile. Not relevant to the thread at this point. Thank you gentlemen.

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This is the scientific use of truncated charts. What ends up in the media is another story entirely!

let alone the explanations!!!!......:eye-poppi
 
We are talking about climate changes over BILLIONS OF YEARS.
You may be but climate scientists and other posters here are not, PossumPie.
We have no proxy data going back BILLIONS OF YEARS.
It is insane to plot the data that we do not have on graphs covering BILLIONS OF YEARS.
Global warming is happening now, not over BILLIONS OF YEARS.

Taking a line graph of 100 years and point to a change in the past 60 years means everything statistically. It means that there was a change over the last 60 years :jaw-dropp!

We have enough data on the time scale that we have been producing measurable CO2 to show strongly (not prove which is never done in science) there is a human-caused warming from the production of the CO2.

PossumPie: The simple fact is that we have not been producing measurable amounts of CO2 or "the past 60,000 or 60 Million years" so it is not valid to look at those date ranges to see if we have been causing global warming.

That is what science and even commonsense says!
 
I AM ONLY arguing that statistically you cannot point to any anomaly in the past 60 years when compared to the past 60 Million years and expect any statistical significance.
We are just pointing out that having an incorrect opinion does not affect the climate science, PossumPie :eek:.
Thousands of scientists around the world say that your opinion is wrong (the 97% consensus in climate science that AGW is happening).

I would go as far as saying the millions of high school students around the world know that your opinion is wrong :D.
They would know that it is totally unscientific to look at "the past 60 Million years" in order to determine whether human beings who have only existed for a few million years can cause climate change.
They would know that it is totally unscientific to look at "the past 60 Million years" in order to determine whether human beings who have only produced measurable CO2 for a couple of centuries can cause climate change due to CO2 emissions.
They would know that it is totally unscientific to pick an arbitrary figure of "the past 60 Million years". Why not 60.1 million years? Why not 1 million years. Why not 600 million years? etc.
 
We have no proxy data going back BILLIONS OF YEARS.

we have some proxy data - we are not flying entirely blind but no where near the detail we have on the the Holocene.
Here are the datasets.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data

It's the only way we know for instance that CO2 levels were much higher, temperatures also higher and when the ice ages occurred and generally how long and extensive which provides the rather broad brush Milakovich graphs showing in and out of ice ages.

But that data loses the detail we need to assess our insanely rapid shift in CO2 and temperature, which is why the inset smaller hockey set is shown the way it is within the grainier Holocene.

Without paleo references we can't compare to previous events.
 
Originally Posted by PossumPie View Post
I AM ONLY arguing that statistically you cannot point to any anomaly in the past 60 years when compared to the past 60 Million years and expect any statistical significance.

You would be wrong. The anomaly is the rate of change which you seem to overlook.
You are focusing on a total excursion plus or minus then in fact the significant part of the graph is the slope.

The longer the time frame the steeper that slope becomes which is why it looks vertical here.

29084301.jpg


not so steep here which is a good illustration of rate of change.

figure-ts-6-2.jpeg


of course vertical scale is important as well.
Using the total span of the earth leads to a very substantial vertical scale but that's not useful to us as we have so many factors in there - land mass configuration, atmosphere composition, the biome, and even earlier on a weaker sun.

So you understand PosPie.....the graphs inform us as to what the biome has developed in.

The range of temps over the holocene globally only varied about 2C.
This allowed agriculture to flourish and civilization to develop with the expectation of relatively consistent growing conditions.
The biome is adapted to that range and while some species can move with changing conditions others cannot and the pace of change is too rapid to adapt.

Wheat for one - without human interference - will not be able to be grown in the continental US within 3 decades or less.
So the slope of the increase is of critical importance to planning either for an adapted wheat, moving the growing area to Canada ( :D ) or a combination of both.

This gives us some predictive power

This 1981 effort was particularly successful given the state of knowledge.

Tglobal_giss_verification.jpg


The alarming aspect of course is that it got warmer than the projection anticipated.

The graphs have to contain information that is useful to the task being undertaken.
Both in range of time covered and vertical excursion.
 
r-j's recent posts were moved to the Conspiracy Theories section but there was some climate science involved which may be of interest to people here.
Climate models can explain the global warming hiatus:
The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Climate science has expected that most of the "warming" of the Earth happens inside the oceans, i.e. they are more of a heat reservoir than the land. Surface temperatures are really a proxy for the total (surface + ocean) warming. The worrying thing is that hiatus in surface temperature increases + the continued increase in ocean heat content hints at a reversal of the hiatus to a steep increase in surface temperatures. Sooner or later the conditions causing the hiatus will (hopefully) vanish or (pessimistically) reverse.
Global Warming’s Missing Heat: Look Back In Anger (and considerable disbelief)…
About a 1979 report that essentially predicted what is going on today :cool:.

Global warming not slowing - it's speeding up

Unprecedented trade wind strength is shifting global warming to the oceans, but for how much longer?
 
I'm conceding this debate. It's obvious to me that I am in over my head. I need to do more research. I am willing to admit that I am getting more confused, rather than more clear. I still am paranoid about manipulation and charts, but I need more knowledge...thanks for being patient with me!!

One only piece of advice, then. Don't let yourself be dragged into discussing minimal details and emotions as stances. Remember that we live in a world where horrible harm as a product of freely debated ideas is not punished at all. It's at most reproached.

There was a medical researcher in the fifties that was hired to fight the studies linking smoking with cancer, managed to delay actions to prevent the general population about the risks of smoking. As a consequence, surely a fraction of those dozens of millions that had died from lung cancer since the fifties because of tobacco can be linked to this guy's actions. Let's be shy and say he has been responsible of 200,000 deaths. Dr. Mengele is a saint, in comparison, but this guy is not seen as a Mengele nor should he be.

Knowing that, you have to be aware that there is a relentless action towards denying any anthropogenic global warming and its consequences. They know themselves covered by the same protective cloak that doctor had, so they operate pretty freely. Are they right? Have they been successful? The answer is no and partially yes. By partially yes I mean, they have succeeded in bringing the debate to the wrong place. Even most of IPCC literature is laid out in a way it connects with denialist literature, no matter it is not the best way to expose a scientific subject.

Be aware that by googling and reading a lot of blogs and news, and pretty scientific sources, you will be probably reasoning the topics denialists prefer everybody to think. A typical example is solar spots and the Maunder minimum. There's nothing more "little to do with anything that matters" like that topic. But it has compelling subtexts you can absorb without even knowing and accept in a way like "yeah, smoking, it's a lottery; if destiny states you have to die ... my grandpa smoked three packets a day all his life and died 93 hit by a train".
 
I cannot show a dramatic line chart b/c the time period since the industrial revolution is too short to be statistically significant on a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic period.
We're interested in the effects on climate of the only industrial civilisation there's ever been; a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic is of no use in that pursuit.

This shows the wild highs and lows, and is NOT a hockey stick.
The dramatic hockey stick charts use less than 2000 years. ]The first Hockey-Stick showed temperatures since 1400CE (600 years) and there are good high-resolution reconstructions going back at least 200 years now. The hockey-stick shape shows up on that.

Climate since the Jurassic has changed with the varying arrangements of continents and oceans, atmospheric composition, solar aging and what-all else. There's no point in comparing what's happened recently and is still happening to that period. It is worthwhile comparing it to a longer modern record - "modern" here being since the continental arrangement, orbital variations (the Milankovich cycles) and solar age have been effectively constant. During that period the last century, and particularly the last forty years, is distinctly out of the ordinary.

We know two things that have happened during the industrial era : atmospheric CO2 has increased by 40% and there has been unusual warming, especially during the period when over half of that CO2 has been emitted.

The Jurassic is a fascinating subject but it's really not relevant to what's going on in our lifetimes.


... to truncate a line/mountain chart to several hundred years, and show a "Major change" during that short period is deceptive.
When we're concerned with what's happened during and potentially due to the industrial era it's not deceptive at all. What's deceptive is to hide the relevant few thousand years in a pixel at the end of a 200 million chart and pretend nothing unusual is happening. I'm not suggesting you're being deceptive; I think you've been deceived by people who don't want you to look at the relevant period in context.

OK, maybe I am not clear and too picky. I have seen too many politicians on both sides use dramatic line graphs where a line suddenly plunges downward or spikes, to make a point. You can make a chart look like anything to support any supposition, and people will nod and agree that there is a spike or dip...
You're surely not suggesting that of people here; that would be quite bizarre. aleCCowan nodding and agreeing dutifully when presented with a graph and a radical claim based solely on it is an image even my active imagination can't summon up. aleCCowan only nods in satisfaction when he reckons he's found an error and is about to gut someone (figuratively) in front of their family and friends.

People like me haven't arrived at our conclusion lightly. The idea that humanity could materially influence the planet has been scientifically radical since the days of Lyell and Darwin. It flies in the face of gradualism and the notion that humans do not occupy some special place in the scheme of things. And yet we have indeed reached our conclusion.

One can't make a chart say anything you want to a knowledgable and wary audience. AGW deniers forever present cherry-picked graphs with misleading captions and they regularly get demolished by people like me. The Denialati have been trying to demolish hockey-sticks for fifteen years and got absolutely nowhere. Makes you think, doesn't it?
 
a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic is of no use in that pursuit.

only in the sense we can see other warm periods and look at the changes in the biome and where the temp went against C02 levels.

in particular the Siberian traps which represents another time when CO2 was a driver of climate change. That we are putting more in annually than occurred then is pretty scary as we know the outcome of that anomaly.
http://www.ibtimes.com/permian-mass...traps-may-have-triggered-really-rapid-wipeout

That said....it was over a much longer time. So yes paleoclimate has an informative role to play but should not be mixed with current and near term climate change issues.

Some pointed perspective
4_5_degrees.png
 
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Climate since the Jurassic has changed with the varying arrangements of continents and oceans, atmospheric composition, solar aging and what-all else.


There's also one other notable difference between then and now: back then, there weren't seven billion human beings on the planet who had deforested vast swaths of the Earth's surface to make way for such things as cities, highways, factories, sports stadiums, farmland, etc.
 
only in the sense we can see other warm periods and look at the changes in the biome and where the temp went against C02 levels.

in particular the Siberian traps which represents another time when CO2 was a driver of climate change. That we are putting more in annually than occurred then is pretty scary as we know the outcome of that anomaly.
http://www.ibtimes.com/permian-mass...traps-may-have-triggered-really-rapid-wipeout

That said....it was over a much longer time. So yes paleoclimate has an informative role to play but should not be mixed with current and near term climate change issues.

This reflects more the position that I hold. I do not have a problem discussing any of the instances (periods) of globally warmer (or colder) climate temperatures. It isn't like climate science denies or ignores naturally driven climate shifts. In fact, it is essential to understand both the commonalities and differences between geologic (regional and planetary) climate change episodes and the modern climate change episode(s).* At least if we expect to be able to prepare and adapt to the inevitable, and hopefully, to minimize the potential of, modern climate changes.

That said, the immediate focus should be upon how different the modern climate is becoming from the climate within which our species (the last 3M to 300K years) and later our civilization (last 8000 years) and nation (last 2 centuries) have originated, grown and evolved. It is important to understand the conditions which we are already committed to moving toward at largely unprecedented rates.

For instance, it is important to understand that even if we could stop all human-sourced emissions tomorrow, the atmospheric changes are already set much higher than the system has equilibrated to as of yet. In other words, if we stopped tomorrow, temperatures and climate changes will continue to occur for several more centuries before all of the feed back systems have brought the climate response up to the forcing level of the GHGs in the atmosphere.

Some might ask, what does that mean? It means that we can look back at the living history book that is our planet's geologic record, find out what the planet was like (generally) the last time our planet was in an equilibrated climate at atmospheric CO2 ratios similar to what we have currently. The last time our planet had an equilibrated atmospheric composition of 400 parts per million carbon dioxide. Looking back in the geologic record, the last time the Earth's atmosphere contained 400ppm CO2 was a period of about a million and a half years between around 2 and 3.5 Million years ago (Mya). During this period of the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene:

The Arctic was ice-free (in general) about 8-10°C (14.4 - 18°F) warmer, on average, than it is now (global temperature averages were 3-4°C (5.4 to 7.2°F) warmer than today). On average, annual global rainfall was three times what it is today (indicative of a much more tempestuous weather pattern, at least in some regions of the globe). Sea levels were (on average) 22.5 meters higher than today (~72 feet!).

The unfortunate side of this information is that these are the results if we could stop all further human-sourced emissions from this point on, and the changes that would be realized if we could magically freeze things at today's atmospheric composition. At current levels of increase and even optimistic considerations of future mitigation measures, we are looking at a tripling (at least) of pre-industrial CO2 ratios (~750-1000ppm), and conditions that have not been seen since mammals have been the dominant major forms of life on this planet.

The real problem isn't just the enormous added cost to virtually every aspect of modern society and commerce of the tripling of the CO2 component of our atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, it's what happens when we trigger massive natural carbon reservoirs to begin emitting their stores of carbon which would replace humanity as the main source of active carbon cycle carbon additions and leave us with no possibility to limit or restrict the greatly enhanced and further damages of a climate change process that we initiated through the lack of consideration of, and later refusal to accept, our responsibility for the consequences of our actions.

How many times do we need history to teach us this lesson?
 
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There's also one other notable difference between then and now: back then, there weren't seven billion human beings on the planet who had deforested vast swaths of the Earth's surface to make way for such things as cities, highways, factories, sports stadiums, farmland, etc.

Alluded to, and recognized as, very important distinction.
 
I've read through the posts since I conceded that I need more information on the subject. I agree with what is being said. I'm not arguing any of it, or at worst, I'm saying that I don't have the knowledge.
 
I've read through the posts since I conceded that I need more information on the subject. I agree with what is being said. I'm not arguing any of it, or at worst, I'm saying that I don't have the knowledge.

;) good to hear.

its a good place to ask questions or ask for sources for specific Information, many People here have a lot of good sources.
 
We're not all of one voice and have different levels of knowledge and backgrounds.
Consequence onset is a point of contention.
Attribution to AGW is difficult with things like cyclones and droughts.

Agreement stems on CO2 traps IR and all that flows from that.

It's varing impact across the world is endless in variety and occasionally scary....a late monsoon to mumbai.
13 million in that city and the rains 2 weeks late. :9
 
Seems to be some discrepancy in when CO2 was last at 400 ppm.
Another recent study found that the last time CO2 levels were consistently this high was between 10 and 15 million years ago (paywall). Other research suggests CO2 levels may have hovered around the same levels (pdf) between 2 million and 4.6 million years ago (paywall).
http://qz.com/204598/carbon-dioxide-just-hit-levels-not-seen-since-mastodons-were-a-thing/

Some little changes:

Another recent study found that the last time CO2 levels were consistently this high was between 10 and 15 million years ago (paywall) . Other research suggests CO2 levels may have hovered around the same levels (pdf) between 2 million and 4.6 million years ago (paywall).
-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*

This reflects more the position that I hold. I do not have a problem discussing any of the instances (periods) of globally warmer (or colder) climate temperatures. It isn't like climate science denies or ignores naturally driven climate shifts. In fact, it is essential to understand both the commonalities and differences between geologic (regional and planetary) climate change episodes and the modern climate change episode(s).

Exactly that! Then ...

Looking back in the geologic record, the last time the Earth's atmosphere contained 400ppm CO2 was a period of about a million and a half years between around 2 and 3.5 Million years ago (Mya). During this period of the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene:

The Arctic was ice-free (in general) about 8-10°C (14.4 - 18°F) warmer, on average, than it is now (global temperature averages were 3-4°C (5.4 to 7.2°F) warmer than today). On average, annual global rainfall was three times what it is today (indicative of a much more tempestuous weather pattern, at least in some regions of the globe). Sea levels were (on average) 22.5 meters higher than today (~72 feet!).

That's not what our current 400 ppm will bring in any term, short or long. I know you're not suggesting that at all, but it can be and will be accidentally read that way. Our atmosphere reflects a world with 400 ppmv CO2. Our oceans as a whole reflect a world with 290 or 295 ppmv CO2. Late Pliocene is telling nothing about what we are to experience because of our past and future actions this year and the couple of centuries before or after.

The unfortunate side of this information is that these are the results if we could stop all further human-sourced emissions from this point on, and the changes that would be realized if we could magically freeze things at today's atmospheric composition. At current levels of increase and even optimistic considerations of future mitigation measures, we are looking at a tripling (at least) of pre-industrial CO2 ratios (~750-1000ppm), and conditions that have not been seen since mammals have been the dominant major forms of life on this planet.

This makes my previous paragraph even truer.

I dismiss and strongly reject all this talk about future-past scenarios. Not because its factually twisted but because it's denialist-induced talk aimed to make us lose the point and confound the big public by such means. If you want all your meals to taste ugly, use prime ingredients and add 74 different spices and salts at the same time, carefully weighted, and you'll achieve that (though some Brits may think it's delicious).

Today, carbon dioxide goes into the ocean. Some 40% of our emissions leave the atmosphere that way. That puts in motion another slow environmental catastrophe, one of many consequences of AGW. But basically the problem is how "the system-earth works" and not how "the system-earth looked" in those mythical times -as all of us know Bishop Usher established the truly age of our planet (if you doubt it, watch "Inherit the Wind"; it's explained there)-.

If our emissions ceased today cold turkey, our global temperatures will continue to go up a few tenths of a degree for a few decades and then start to drop again into a pre-industrial-like level, maybe in a thousand years.

The ocean has an amazing capability to manage ten times the CO2 we're throwing into the air, and do it with little consequences ... if you give the ocean several millennia to do so. Our problem is not our sewage and depuration facilities to be small, but our addiction for growing derrières much bigger than the toilette bowls we're willing to buy. And that's our nude, crude, simple and brutal truth.
 
El Niño says "Hi!":

Yacyretá-Apipé Dam spillways (overflow channels) at top capacity:



Designed fifty years ago with an important overcapacity, they can manage 55,000 m3 per second (that is comparable to the joined discharge in the ocean of both Mississippi and Saint Lawrence rivers during a normal Spring season). It may be not enough to manage the floods if the climate continue to worsen in the upper Paraná basin.

Observation structures and pathways in Iguazú Falls have been swept down the river.

Taking into account the normal delays and the two-weekly forecasts, it is expected Paraná River to reach a record level of 8.20m in Corrientes City in weeks to come, with a discharge no less than 48,000 m3/s as, contrary to normal, both Paraná and Paraguay rivers are simultaneously experiencing rise.

It's almost sure now -even if the weather become dryer starting tomorrow- that it's going to surpass in Corrientes the only 4 extreme floods in the last two centuries: in 1905, in 1983, in 1992 and during 1998.

Stay tuned [Fortunately, the river is 25 miles wide in front of my city, so it'll be just a few centimetres here]
 
Some pointed perspective
4_5_degrees.png

Just to clarify your "pointed perspective"

4.5 deg C in the next 86 years, over "modern times" (by which they mean the temperature 100-150 years ago I guess) which is the claim of the cartoon.

We have had around 0.8-0.9 deg C warming since the reference point - but lets be generous and round it up to 1 deg C.

To reach +4.5C in 86 years, that means increasing at a rate of 0.4 deg C per decade, every decade.

Given the peak decadal rate over the last century peaked out at around 0.2 deg C / decade, and we are now below 0.1 deg C / decade by many measures, does anyone who actually claims to adhere to science believe we are going to see 0.4 deg C per decade, EVERY decade, for the next 86 years?

Clearly this is utter nonsense. Notable how quick people are willing to accept nonsense when it suits their own biases, even when they claim to be waving the flag of scientific credibility.

So much for "pointed perspectives", huh.
 
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