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Merged Global Warming Discussion II: Heated Conversation

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For the third time...I am NOT arguing against global warming, or even "Natural vs. Unnatural" as you seem to think. I AM ONLY arguing that statistically you cannot point to any anomaly in the past 60 years when compared to the past 60 Million years and expect any statistical significance. I agree with the very well presented posts above...but the line charts are meaningless in the context of geological time. If I told you that last day the temperature went up 1 degree, and the day before that it went up 1 degree, and extrapolating ahead it would be 365 degrees warmer this time next year it is meaningless. Too small a sample size. 60 years is too small a sample size compared to 60 million years. It DOES NOT mean we are not in a crisis of global proportion with regard to global warming.It doesn't mean we are not killing our future. It does mean you are misusing line charts.
 
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For the third time...I am NOT arguing against global warming, or even "Natural vs. Unnatural" as you seem to think. I AM ONLY arguing that statistically you cannot point to any anomaly in the past 60 years when compared to the past 60 Million years and expect any statistical significance. I agree with the very well presented posts above...but the line charts are meaningless in the context of geological time. If I told you that last hour the temperature went up 1 degree, and the hour before that it went up 1 degree, and extrapolating ahead it would be 365 degrees warmer this time next year it is meaningless. Too small a sample size. 60 years is too small a sample size compared to 60 million years. It DOES NOT mean we are not in a crisis of global proportion with regard to global warming.It doesn't mean we are not killing our future. It does mean you are misusing line charts.

can you present such a chart?
 
PP

Hopeless:rolleyes:...you are in a CLIMATE CHANGE thread...not one chart is being used incorrectly in that context....despite your protests and you are simply dodging in my view.

PP
! The rise in temp over the past 8 1/2 minutes prove there is a human-caused warming.

Geologic time is meaningless to this statement .....if you can bring some science to the table proving the last 8 1/2 minutes are NOT human induced...I'm all ears.
You can't.

The TOPIC is climate change.
Your last post is utter garbage in that regard. You've not brought one bit of science or support to the table...just meaningless declarations and what appears to be a weasel out of an unsupportable position by some nonsensical appeal to statistics.
 
The charts you are posting showing the dramatic warming in the last 60 years prove my original premise.

You keep saying this, but I fail to see how the fact that I slept last night sweating like a pregnant nun because I was under six blankets (when many years ago there were just two) has anything to do with the piece of mammoth hide that covered my great great great great great great grandfather Monsieur de Cro-Magnon twenty thousand years ago.

And I fail to see that link because two of those blankets that made me sweat so much last night were put forcibly on me by a branch of cousins -descendants from the same Monsieur- who during the last few generations have been playing increasingly dirty with the environment. Not that my branch of the family hasn't knitted a few patches for the quilt ourselves, but I'm sorry to say your opinions sound to my like you are your branch's spokesperson making excuses for that bunch of cousins.

Again, you have an opinion based on perceptions, why wouldn't have I mine? But this is a science forum, so, when you are done with your opinions, I will be done with mine. Can you start linking the backing facts so we can move on?
 
For the third time...I am NOT arguing against global warming, or even "Natural vs. Unnatural" as you seem to think. I AM ONLY arguing that statistically you cannot point to any anomaly in the past 60 years when compared to the past 60 Million years and expect any statistical significance.

Yet those charts are still a promise. When are they coming? Don't forget to link the original data as a table, so we can really talk of "statistical significance".

You seem to be a very nice person but your texts started to sound like containing buzzwords and rocket phrases. Shall you share more graphics and figures and less adjectives?
 
Moving on to relevancy ...nice to see a state making plans to cope. Distressing it's the only one. Think if Holland decided to foot drag...:crowded:

snip

Vermont's assessment predicts what will happen locally over the next century using both local weather data and standard scenarios for global warming used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Some news is good, such as longer growing seasons for farmers and heavier winter snows to attract skiers over the next 25 to 40 years. Some is not so good, such as the likelihood the snow will turn to rain after that period, and the chance that pests will plague farmers all year round.

The forecast will help farmers, industries and local leaders plan. "From our historical records, we can tell that climate change is already happening," Galford notes. "Spring now starts around seven days earlier than it did in 1970."

http://www.newscientist.com/article...reate-longterm-climate-plan.html#.U5czVsxmv3w
 
... If we go back further, to the Jurassic period, we see tropical plants in Antarctica, so to say we are "out of control" with heat at this point is a bit Anthropocentric and premature from a geological perspective.

... We are talking about climate changes over BILLIONS OF YEARS.

I hope you won't think I'm picking on you because that's not my intention at all but, do you realize that Antarctica was at a latitude about the same as modern South Africa and Southern Brazil that time of the "cosmic year", and no land mass existed in both polar regions?

Are you aware that the Sun was 10, 20 or 30% weaker during most of those "billions" of years you talk?

... But no chart of the last 60 years when compared to the changes over the past 60,000 or 60 Million years is going to convince me of anything. THAT is all I am saying.

Would a chart covering the last 60 million years convince your about it covering a million times the time a chart covering 60 years does? If the answer is no ("no chart ... is going to convince me of anything") we have a problem with your perception of reality. If that was meant as "nothing is going to convince me of anything I don't want to be convinced about", well, it's okay. No harm in that as long it's clear to both you and the rest of us. There will be always somebody here trying to make you change your mind, so those somebodies and you may have an interesting exchange of posts, sort of an intellectual version of those games played in the web. It could be real fun.

And if "THAT is all" you are "saying". Well, Godspeed, do well, because it only could mean you're no longer posting here. It was nice to meet you.

If you're saying otherwise, use words that say what you really want to say. Your opinions are your own state of truth but, are they true? If your intention in prove they are, well, you're welcome back any time. But play by the rules. Nothing is real just because you wish it to be real.
 
The charts you are posting showing the dramatic warming in the last 60 years prove my original premise. We are talking about climate changes over BILLIONS OF YEARS.
Please give a detailed explanation of why your think conditions on earth a billion+ years ago is relevant. The earth hasn’t been habitable for advanced life for anywhere near that long.
I have said that I agree with most of what you are arguing, but to look at a warming trend in the past 60 years when compared to the last 10,000 is like looking at the last 8 1/2 minutes of a 24 hour day and saying look!

This is what’s so scary about the current rate of climate change, even in the context of the time advanced human civilization has been on the planet it’s happening almost instantly.

You don't have enough data on a geological time frame to make that assumption.

You don't have enough data on a geological time frame to make that assumption.

Again why should we care about geological time? I care about the existence of homo sapiens sapiens and it’s civilization.
The hard science you quote above is compelling and I agree with the CO2 saturation increase and rate of ice shelf melting BUT to show rises of such a short recent geological blip can't be differentiated from standard deviational dispersion.
Again, the rate is statistically significant and MUCH higher than any change in the last 10 000 years.

But no chart of the last 60 years when compared to the changes over the past 60,000 or 60 Million years is going to convince me of anything. THAT is all I am saying.
I just finished linking a paper that says current changes are 10X faster than anything since the mass extinction that killed off the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.
 
I hope you won't think I'm picking on you because that's not my intention at all but, do you realize that Antarctica was at a latitude about the same as modern South Africa and Southern Brazil that time of the "cosmic year", and no land mass existed in both polar regions?

Are you aware that the Sun was 10, 20 or 30% weaker during most of those "billions" of years you talk?



Would a chart covering the last 60 million years convince your about it covering a million times the time a chart covering 60 years does? If the answer is no ("no chart ... is going to convince me of anything") we have a problem with your perception of reality. If that was meant as "nothing is going to convince me of anything I don't want to be convinced about", well, it's okay. No harm in that as long it's clear to both you and the rest of us. There will be always somebody here trying to make you change your mind, so those somebodies and you may have an interesting exchange of posts, sort of an intellectual version of those games played in the web. It could be real fun.

And if "THAT is all" you are "saying". Well, Godspeed, do well, because it only could mean you're no longer posting here. It was nice to meet you.

If you're saying otherwise, use words that say what you really want to say. Your opinions are your own state of truth but, are they true? If your intention in prove they are, well, you're welcome back any time. But play by the rules. Nothing is real just because you wish it to be real.

I shouldn't post when I am at work trying to do other things...I don't say precisely what I mean. I will continue posting, I love the intellectual discussion and you make good points.

Actually During the late Jurassic, Gondwana was where South America is, Antarctica was only a little farther north than it is today.

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_During_the_Jurassic_Time_Period.PNG

The flora of Antarctica was tropical b/c of the difference in world-wide climate.

I cannot show a dramatic line chart b/c the time period since the industrial revolution is too short to be statistically significant on a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic period.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#mediaviewer/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png

This shows the wild highs and lows, and is NOT a hockey stick. The dramatic hockey stick charts use less than 200 years. When viewed in this longer period it doesn't DISPROVE global warming (global warming cannot be reasonably denied) It just shows a more statistically significant "snapshot" of variations. I will repeat myself yet again...I agree with virtually everything you all are saying, just that to truncate a line/mountain chart to several hundred years, and show a "Major change" during that short period is deceptive. OK, maybe I am not clear and too picky. I have seen too many politicians on both sides use dramatic line graphs where a line suddenly plunges downward or spikes, to make a point. You can make a chart look like anything to support any supposition, and people will nod and agree that there is a spike or dip...

By "the last I'm going to say" I meant at this posting...not that I'm leaving the forum...I have the opportunity of learning much from you all who obviously have much more knowledge about global warming than I have..!
 
Earth_During_the_Jurassic_Time_Period.PNG


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Earth_During_the_Jurassic_Time_Period.PNG

Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geolog...#mediaviewer/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png
 
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It's not in the least deceptive - I don't think you realize the pace of change.
You need to do more reading of the science.

We are changing the CO2 faster than the pace that led to the Permian extinction.
The 2 degree swing from 10bp to the Holocene optimum that took some 3k years we are doing in 300 years and we've only started on the trajectory.

The frame of reference is pre-industrial to now.
The past is only of interest to give us insight into outcomes.

If we want to compare climates that had 400 ppm CO2 we need to look back 12 million years or so.....and we've created that change, by releasing fossil carbon, in less than 300 years and the great bulk of it in the last 60 years.

Tell me what is overstated there?

•••

It IS refreshing to see you are open to learning....I do every day here.
 
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considering the graph you show, i would argue that it would rather be dishonest to show such a graph. as it is confusing and absolutely not comparable to our world. not only are fauna and flora completely different, but even the land masses, ovean currents etc etc.
that would be much more confusing.

i think the last 10 000 years are a meaningfull timeperiod.
 
I am a firm believer that the earth is getting warmer very fast since the 1900's. It can't be denied. What I get furious at are those who show a graph from the 1800's onward and make it look like the spike is unique.

Please demonstrate a temperature spike in the geologic record that approaches, equals or exceeds the modern temperature spike. Your assertion awaits your compelling evidentiary support.


Going back even just 10,000 years in ice cores we see the global temperatures were MUCH higher and much lower, with spikes more dramatic than the current spike.

It is good to see that you place value and faith in the accuracy of proxy records for the past planetary surface conditions. I'm going to hold you to that faith and trust in the methods, processes, and findings of mainstream science. I see nothing in the surface temperature record of the last 600,000 years or so that would support your assertion, but, I would be willing and eager to look at any compelling evidence for this that you can provide.

I'm not saying I don't believe humans have contributed, BUT it is unethical and unscientific to truncate a chart to look dramatic for your own purposes. I can't post pics yet so i can't cite my findings except to say Google image search "global temperatures ice core samples" If we go back further, to the Jurassic period, we see tropical plants in Antarctica, so to say we are "out of control" with heat at this point is a bit Anthropocentric and premature from a geological perspective.

Actually, it is the geologists who promote the anthropocene. As for Google images, it is important to make sure that you are looking at graphs created by mainstream climate scientists and not merely looking at Blog post graphs created by people of dubious qualification and training at actually producing legitimate representations of the available science data.
I don't see compelling support for your statements in mainstream climate science, but I am open to looking at and considering any legitimate mainstream science data you can provide to compelling support your assertions.

"Geologists press for recognition of Earth-changing 'human epoch'

Experts want the human imprint in the geological record to be acknowledged as a new epoch, the Anthropocene"
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/jun/03/geologists-human-epoch-anthropocene
Anthropocene, a term conceived in 2002 by Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen, means "the Age of Man", recognising our species' ascent to a geophysical force on a par with Earth-shattering asteroids and planet-cloaking volcanoes. Geologists predict that our geological footprint will be visible, for example, in radioactive material from the atomic bomb tests, plastic pollution, increased carbon dioxide levels and human-induced mass extinction.

"...Geologists and ecologists are already using the term 'Anthropocene', so it makes sense to have an accepted definition," says geologist Dr Jan Zalasiewicz of the University of Leicester. "But, in this unusual case, formal recognition of the epoch could have wider significance beyond the geology community. By officially accepting that human actions are having an effect on the makeup of the Earth, it may have an impact on, say, the law of the sea or on people's behaviour."

In the past, geological changes on a scale big enough to merit a new epoch have been the result of events such as the eruption of a supervolcano or a catastrophic meteor strike – things a lawyer might describe as acts of God. Now, instead of being just another one of the millions of species on our planet, humans have become the determining factor – the guiding, controlling species – and many of our changes will leave a permanent mark in the rocks.

The Anthropocene Working Group of the International Commission on Stratigraphy, which is the body charged with formally designating geological time periods, met at Burlington House, London, last month, to discuss evidence for the planet having crossed into a new geological epoch...


http://quaternary.stratigraphy.org/workinggroups/anthropocene/
 
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I shouldn't post when I am at work trying to do other things...I don't say precisely what I mean. I will continue posting, I love the intellectual discussion and you make good points.

Actually During the late Jurassic, Gondwana was where South America is, Antarctica was only a little farther north than it is today.

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_During_the_Jurassic_Time_Period.PNG
The earth was warmer at time when atmospheric CO2 averages 2000 parts per million? I’m shocked, simply socked!
I cannot show a dramatic line chart b/c the time period since the industrial revolution is too short to be statistically significant on a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic period.

Statistical significance has nothing the do with the length of the plot you want to display. In fact just the opposite choosing to long a time scale will hide statistically significant details. If you want to see statistical significance use math not pictures.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#mediaviewer/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png

This shows the wild highs and lows, and is NOT a hockey stick.

None of the temperatures changes in that graph are anywhere close to as fast as what’s currently happening, and this rapid change in temperature is what causes the hockey stick. You’ve just chosen a time scale where the entire thing is just one pixel on the graph.

The dramatic hockey stick charts use less than 200 years.

No, it uses anywhere from 1400 to 8000 years. The “blade” of the stick is the last 200 and arises from the fact recent change is so much faster than anything in the “shaft” of the stick. I’ve already shown you that this feature extends back some 65 million years. Even if you can’t see it on a graph the math tells us the feature is still there.

I have seen too many politicians on both sides use dramatic line graphs where a line suddenly plunges downward or spikes, to make a point.

Why not look into the underlying validity of what they are saying and vote for the ones whose position is supportable by the science? Since the vast majority of the published science and the publishing scientists say humans are causing rapid climate change vote for the ones who takes that position.
 
I'm conceding this debate. It's obvious to me that I am in over my head. I need to do more research. I am willing to admit that I am getting more confused, rather than more clear. I still am paranoid about manipulation and charts, but I need more knowledge...thanks for being patient with me!!
 
Actually During the late Jurassic, Gondwana was where South America is, Antarctica was only a little farther north than it is today.

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Earth_During_the_Jurassic_Time_Period.PNG

The flora of Antarctica was tropical b/c of the difference in world-wide climate.

Just a couple of comments. You know -or are going to learn soon- that I consider elements like this one absolutely irrelevant to any issue related to AGW.

One comment is a question in chunks: What kind of "tropical flora" do you think there was in any place of Antarctica other than the Antarctic Peninsula? Were there flowers in Antarctica 145 million years ago?

The other comment may be put as a question, but a rhetorical one: Do you think that the north and south poles in that figure are the geographic ones or the magnetic ones? Same as today? closer? farther?

Parts of the Antarctica in that image are now at my latitude, and we have here exotic palmtrees of those many species that tolerate frosts down to -7°C (20°F). Indigenous palmtrees, also tolerating frost and snow, grow some 400 miles closer to the Equator.


I cannot show a dramatic line chart b/c the time period since the industrial revolution is too short to be statistically significant on a chart of temperatures since the Jurassic period.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#mediaviewer/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png

This shows the wild highs and lows, and is NOT a hockey stick.

You can show it. You must show it. It's not a matter of wide in those graphics. It's a matter of height. And it's pretty impressive. It shows dramatic changes in a 100 years that are only matched by dramatic changes like massive eruptions, meteorite hits, massive release of methane from different origins. And it shows a planet changed in a way that you -you meaning your person- have to go back eons to a planet with different continents in different places, different atmosphere, different living beings, those and much more all just to make a bit of sense in what you are saying.

The dramatic hockey stick charts use less than 200 years. When viewed in this longer period it doesn't DISPROVE global warming (global warming cannot be reasonably denied) It just shows a more statistically significant "snapshot" of variations. I will repeat myself yet again...I agree with virtually everything you all are saying, just that to truncate a line/mountain chart to several hundred years, and show a "Major change" during that short period is deceptive. OK, maybe I am not clear and too picky. I have seen too many politicians on both sides use dramatic line graphs where a line suddenly plunges downward or spikes, to make a point. You can make a chart look like anything to support any supposition, and people will nod and agree that there is a spike or dip...

By "the last I'm going to say" I meant at this posting...not that I'm leaving the forum...I have the opportunity of learning much from you all who obviously have much more knowledge about global warming than I have..!

And here comes my point. I'll comment this to you just to make some conversation and explore the possibility of a productive discussion with you. I'm not still convinced you came here to discuss science and facts, but to share a vision, and that's OK with me, but not the goal of this thread.

I'm aware we're going into a period of global temperatures climbing again, and there's an increasing buzzing coming from the denialist camp leaving behind them any pretension of a non existent AGW and changing the focus into "it's inevitable; it happened before; it means nothing indeed; the planet will adapt as it always has done; we can cope (the long list continues)". Your words so far sound a bit like that, but I have to take them as they look: an honest sharing of an honest opinion.

What I see in what you're saying is a stance I could never share. What happened one million years before today doesn't matter much because it has no perceptible bearing in the present other than the continuity in a causal universe. The planet has come to be some way because it was some of many many different ways in many different points in the past. But what made hot some day one million years BC has only a connexion with the present if the same causes are working, not if similar thermometers show the same.

It seems like people -does this include you?- had never learnt from their daily life. If they live in Pennsylvania, they see the seasons passing, high sun, long days, hot during Summer, sun laying low, short days, chilly Winters. They also see that whether summer or winter the temperature starts being cool at dawn and climbs to a heigh about 2pm, or 3 pm or 4 pm, depending on how wet is the place. Of course, it doesn't happen that way as a clock, because there's some chaotic system called biosphere and a lot of variations, some of them called weather. But pretty much it works like that, do you agree?

Besides, if you are in a dry place, temperatures go up quickly during the day and plummet after sunset. If you are in a wetter place, water vapour, the most important greenhouse gas in the system, makes for warmer nights. If you are in the mountain and have less atmosphere over your head, temperatures will plummet dramatically. If you leave PA and go to Atlantic City, temperatures at night won't fall as much as inland. Sea water has an impressive thermal inertia and they'll provide the needed thermal energy to sustain that. But anyway the temperature of the water at the shore will fall one or two degrees Celsius, and far from the shores, a few tenths, in spite there's a lot of mixing and deeper waters come up to replace the slightly cooled ones.

Does that description sound familiar to you? Can you connect the experience of being a living person with that? I hope you do, because what that is telling you is that -for any practical purpose- all the energy the planet gets from the Sun during the day, goes out into space the very same day. That truth is unquestionable. You could search, calculate, integrate, choose the day, choose the weather pattern, choose the exact second that 24-hour period starts and ends, and you'll get it off cases that the planet gets 1000 from the sun and gives back 979 or 1024, with an average that should be 1000 if not because of humans -currently some 997 or 998 because of humans-.

And that brings the conclusion. The planet as a whole is on the road of becoming a tiny bit hotter today, just because yesterday it was a bit hotter than the o'le times, but most of all, because it cannot give back to space the energy it gets from the sun as easy as it did decades ago. It needs to go hotter to match the equation. And the reason is pretty much greenhouse gases, and the human fingerprints are all over the crime scene: the gun, the bullets, the windows, the table, the personal cards on the night table with the handwritten FU in them.

It's just only today. The incoming sun energy may vary -it varies a whole lot- and still is the same conclusion. In January the Earth gets 7% more energy per day than in July. Anyway, as an average, in January the Earth is almost 4°C cooler than what it is in July. One should think the opposite, but no, it is clearly that way. It only has to be with the daily equation: heat in - heat out.

Human being are affecting the far most important part of the equation in the mid-term: greenhouse gases that can't be degraded or wiped out easily. The Earth system, with its chaotic behaviour, its contribution to the most important greenhouse gas (water vapour) and its oceanic thermal inertia -besides its somewhat important ice/snow-covered regions- keeps making our daily news. More CO2, should promote more water vapour, but cool oceans oppose to that. So, the system behaves chaotically but it will match in the mid-term the pattern greenhouse gases but water vapour have set to it, and that's because there's a lot of cold water down there, in the ocean, but it's warming and it's not going to remain cold forever.

And that's pretty much it. We can add loops and discuss Jurassic, hockey sticks, the bulging glance of Monckton and a lot of paraphernalia designed to distract us from the picture.

I can accept you have your interests and respect them, but don't expect that reality shows your interests match the truth.
 
'm conceding this debate. It's obvious to me that I am in over my head. I need to do more research. I am willing to admit that I am getting more confused, rather than more clear. I still am paranoid about manipulation and charts, but I need more knowledge...thanks for being patient with me!!

Let's try and relieve the confusion.

One of the best places to ask questions is right here. you have scientists and engineers and others from around the world who have done the work and can point you to the originals or the summaries that will clarify things - take it a chunk at a time.

There is no question that polemics are done to get a point across. I get in the argument with Alec that people need visuals and conceptual anchors.
10 cu km of ice is hard for many to visualize - especially for those not in the metric system.
A mountain range of ice - which roughly 10 cu km is easier.
Pair it up with a single glacier releasing that mountain range into the ocean in a single month and you have some drama.

Seeing this occur can be even more engaging.
http://www.chasingice.com

The underlying science is not hard and really is summed up pretty well in that single visual. These are the primary forces at work in the climate system of earth right now leading to the changes. Ask all you like about it.
onlinefig1_high.gif


Once you get there...the hard part is....

How soon will consequences unfold for various regions ( Arctic and California like right now ).

What should we do about it ?????

The science is easy.
The policy....not easy.
 
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The main premis of my post was not to debate the non-human vs. human cause of global warming, but the unscientific use of truncated charts ...
The problem is that if we take your objection to its logical conclusion then every graph of global surface temperatures would have to cover the entire 4.6 billion years of Earth's history, PossumPie :rolleyes:!
Scientists have to select the appropriate date range for the graphs.
If they are graphing instrumental readings then of course they cannot go further past than the start of instrumental readings.
If they are looking at AGW then there is no point in looking back further than the start of the Industrial Age and the large scale addition of CO2 to the atmosphere.
If they are looking at past climate changes to judge climate sensitivity then they can use the available proxy data to plot thousands of years.

This is the scientific use of truncated charts. What ends up in the media is another story entirely!
 
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