Implications of Scottish Independence

[Craig B]

You forgot to mention that Barack Obama actually didn't. He was fairly neutral, given that Cameron was twisting his arm for a pro-union quote. First Putin, now Obama. Cameron, who say's it's up to the Scots and he won't interfere, trawling round heads of state begging for a bit of support. It's demeaning.

Yes, that seems to be right. According to the BBC

... the US president told reporters in Brussels the decision was "up to the people of Scotland".

That's fine.

 

[Rolfe]

In more general terms, readers might find this article interesting.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/polit...t-scotlands-future-is-to-create-it.1401979849

Rolfe.

 

[Soapy Sam]

Where would Rolfe be without Wings Over Scotland to quote from?

There are plenty other pro-indie sites, but WOS is the best in terms of popular opinion. It's actually a rather good example of on-line journalism - informative and often extremely funny. 100% biased of course, but that is it's stated position, which is fair enough.

I have to say, as a "No" voter, that if the "No" campaign has anything a tenth as good, I have yet to see it.

 

[Rolfe]

There are plenty other pro-indie sites, but WOS is the best in terms of popular opinion. It's actually a rather good example of on-line journalism - informative and often extremely funny. 100% biased of course, but that is it's stated position, which is fair enough.

I have to say, as a "No" voter, that if the "No" campaign has anything a tenth as good, I have yet to see it.

I concur. I like Stu's style. He's irreverent, funny and serious both, and sharp as a tack. He backs up every post with linked facts, quotes and evidence. He seems to spend almost his entire waking life working on these articles and related matters.

I could find the same thing on other sites, of course. But pretty much every time, it wouldn't be so well expressed.

Another thing to mention is that while Wings is on the side of Yes and has registered as a formal participant (he had to after he raised £111,000 from a fundraiser with a target of £53,000), he isn't part of Yes Scotland. He's 100% grass-roots, just some guy with a blog and a sassy tongue in his head who wanted to get involved. He's raised every penny he's received, on his own. No big corporate donors, dodgy oil barons or lottery winners (one donation of £10,000 was mentioned with shock and awe).

No has nothing like that because No has no enthusiasm. Nobody who wants to run a blog like that, and even if there was, nobody who wants to read it enough to fund it the way Wings has been funded. And yes I'm due one of the gold badges. But then, No doesn't need it. Wings is explicitly intended to be a counterbalance to the diabolical, utterly depressing pro-union spin from the dead-tree press. No has virtually all the mainstream media spinning and lying for it. Why would they need Wings?

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

Indeed, as a general point, when anyone asks a question on the independence debate on this thread, you could just post a boiler-plate "go read Wings" response. There is so much material out there I just don't understand why anyone who is generally interested only wants to sit on this thread and be spoon-fed.

Rolfe.

 

[Soapy Sam]

No has nothing like that because No has no enthusiasm. Nobody who wants to run a blog like that, and even if there was, nobody who wants to read it enough to fund it the way Wings has been funded. And yes I'm due one of the gold badges. But then, No doesn't need it. Wings is explicitly intended to be a counterbalance to the diabolical, utterly depressing pro-union spin from the dead-tree press. No has virtually all the mainstream media spinning and lying for it. Why would they need Wings?

Rolfe.

There are other possibilities.
A lot of "No" voters simply have no time for, or interest in any of the issues. They see the whole business as inherently pointless and actually uninteresting. These folk are not seeking confirmation or support for their views. Most are probably over 60 and not internet focussed anyway. I suspect a majority of them are female and wear hats on Sundays. *

Also, the Union , like any status quo just isn't very sexy , exciting or fun.
(Really, Alistair Darling was the perfect embodiment of the notion).

None of which detracts from the fact that what WOS has achieved is pretty impressive.


*Eek! Just remembered to whom I speak.

 

[Rolfe]

There are other possibilities.
A lot of "No" voters simply have no time for, or interest in any of the issues. They see the whole business as inherently pointless and actually uninteresting. These folk are not seeking confirmation or support for their views. Most are probably over 60 and not internet focussed anyway. I suspect a majority of them are female and wear hats on Sundays. *

Also, the Union , like any status quo just isn't very sexy , exciting or fun.
(Really, Alistair Darling was the perfect embodiment of the notion).

That's not "other possibilities" or even another possibility. It's exactly what I said, but in different words.

None of which detracts from the fact that what WOS has achieved is pretty impressive.

I agree. I stand in awe. The living refutation of the old adage about a one-man-band being a pretty poor orchestra.

If you say "hire a PA", I *will* find you and shoot you.

*Eek! Just remembered to whom I speak.

Ah, but my extremely cool Sunday hat has a wee Yes pin in it.

And I discovered after I bought it that the lady who made it is also a very keen Yes supporter. So I'm not desecrating her handiwork or anything.

Rolfe.

 

[Soapy Sam]

It's exactly what I said, but in different words.

I'm tempted to nominate that for pith or something, but I'm going to bed instead. The boss is back from Canada on Saturday and I have a house to clean tomorrow.

 

[Rolfe]

I have an infinite number of German choristers landing on me for a week, so I have a house to clean and a load of beds to make up. And food to bring in.

Rolfe.

 

[Soapy Sam]

"Duldet mutig, Millionen!
Duldet fur die besser Welt!
Droben uber dem Sternenzelt
Wird ein grosser Gott belohnen."

Gesundheit!

 

[Skepticemea]

I have an infinite number of German choristers landing on me for a week

Rolfe.

Sounds like you've gathered the materials together for a more efficient Infinite Improbability Drive.

 

[Rolfe]

Where's that from, Soapy?

Seid umschlungen, Millionen
Diesen Kuß der ganzen Welt
Brüder, überm Sternenzelt
Muß ein lieber Vater wohnen

Is what I know. I've sung it a dozen times. Your version not at present ringing any bells.

Rolfe.

 

[Francesca R]

There are plenty other pro-indie sites, but WOS is the best in terms of popular opinion. It's actually a rather good example of on-line journalism - informative and often extremely funny. 100% biased of course, but that is it's stated position, which is fair enough.

It is also confused (kind interpretation) or disingenuous (unkind one) on the economics of indieness.

Probably just hyping things to its own bias, but discovering a silly misrepresentation of things on the one post I looked at indicates it is not to be taken seriously on matters of fiscal/economic reality.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-the...urrency-union/
If the UK refused a currency union, Scotland would have no reason whatsoever to take on any of the UK’s debt, and the UK would have to face the same crippling debt mountain that’s causing the horrific austerity now, but with its economy hacked off at the ankles. If the current nightmare came from a brief single-digit recession, you don’t have to be an economist to imagine the apocalyptic effect of a permanent 10% one.

It's just possible that if independent Scotland started life on day one as "the nation that repudiated all its sovereign debt outright", then it may have rather more trouble accessing the capital market than, say, Argentina in the last thirteen years and Greece from 2010-14. (This is one of the points made in the Citi report IIRC. It is not a credible threat for Scotland to make.)

In addition a one off removal of 10% (isn't it more like 8?) [no--corrected later, it's 10] of economic output does not create a permanent "10% recession", but a one-off contraction in a single period (actually overnight) that is matched by a contraction in population, costs, liabilities. In the next period the effect is gone.

So this site rather impeaches itself on economics-cred without one having to look far.

 

[Rolfe]

No, you're just wrong. Scotland doesn't have any sovereign debt to repudiate.

Scotland is prepared to accept some debt responsibility through negotiation around a currency union and other relevant assets. However, if the other side doesn't play ball, then that won't happen. That's all there is to it.

Rolfe.

 

[MikeG]

No, you're just wrong. Scotland doesn't have any sovereign debt to repudiate.........

I love it when Rolfe does this stuff. The blindness of ultra-nationalism writ-large.

 

[Francesca R]

It was the false-alarmism about "permanent 10% recession" (in the UK) from Scotland leaving the UK that was either their deliberate misrepresentation of reality or their highly dumb error.

There would not even be a recession caused by that alone, it is simply a re-basing of GDP.

 

[Darat]

It was the false-alarmism about "permanent 10% recession" (in the UK) from Scotland leaving the UK that was either their deliberate misrepresentation of reality or their highly dumb error.

There would not even be a recession caused by that alone, it is simply a re-basing of GDP.

I read it as yet another example of the Yes campaign's relentless negative and anti-English campaign and not really meant to be taken as a "real" economic argument.

 

[MikeG]

Yes, I saw that as too stupid to even bother commenting on, frankly. Even the most economically illiterate saw through that nonsense in a nano-second.

 

[Francesca R]

Of course, the Czech Republic has had a permanent -30% recession ever since Slovakia separated 21 years ago . . . . and the Slovaks have had 21 years of -70% declines in output every year for the same reason.

Actually won't independent Scotland have a permanent -90% recession if it goes independent from the UK? Talk about hacking the economy off at the neck . . . . Somebody tell Wings!

 

[Craig B]

Of course, the Czech Republic has had a permanent -30% recession ever since Slovakia separated 21 years ago . . . . and the Slovaks have had 21 years of -70% declines in output every year for the same reason.

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics registered a hundred percent fall in economic (and all other) activity in 1991.