Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

Status
Not open for further replies.
turingtest said:
Michel? Any chance of you addressing this?


Surely you would accept that, human nature being what it is, some folks who are responding with numbers are simply guessing at your target? And, further, that given your ridiculously small sample set and the law of averages, some of those guesses will be correct ones? Without an objective way to distinguish between those who are receiving from you your target number, and those who are only stabbing in the dark at it, your test is meaningless. And if you refuse to recognize, or allow for, the distinction, then you're just assuming whatever it is you're trying to prove by the test- so, again, it's a worthless test (except insofar as it may have any worth to you subjectively).
Click to expand...
Well, on the one hand, I can look at comments that people provide with their answers. And, on the other hand, I can use standard tools provided by the statistical science, to try to assess whether any apparent result is statistically significant, by calculating the p-value.
 
Michel H said:
Well, in that case, feel free to say it. It could perhaps be related to the actual target number, or perhaps make some sense, have some significance in some other way.
Click to expand...

What if we are not receiving a number, but some other...thing. What if I am strongly hearing the name of a city? Or a historic event? Or an abstract concept?
 
Michel H said:
Well, on the one hand, I can look at comments that people provide with their answers. And, on the other hand, I can use standard tools provided by the statistical science, to try to assess whether any apparent result is statistically significant, by calculating the p-value.
Click to expand...

Just so you know, the p value applies only if you do not subjectively rate the "reliability" of the responses post hoc. You must know that, based on your speciality in math and physics.
 
TheSapient said:
What if we are not receiving a number, but some other...thing. What if I am strongly hearing the name of a city? Or a historic event? Or an abstract concept?
Click to expand...
If you have something interesting to say about "my telepathy" (if such a thing does really exist), then I am probably not the one who will report you, or send your post to AAH for being off topic. In other words, as far as I am concerned, if you feel you have something interesting to say, in a wide sense, feel free to say it.
 
Michel H said:
Thank you, Scarlett, I think your answer is valid, and is therefore the first valid answer, in this fifth test that I do on this (slow ;) )Randi Foundation forum.
Click to expand...

First valid answer? At the very least, you have several "I don't know"s.

Michel H said:
If you have something interesting to say about "my telepathy" (if such a thing does really exist), then I am probably not the one who will report you, or send your post to AAH for being off topic. In other words, as far as I am concerned, if you feel you have something interesting to say, in a wide sense, feel free to say it.
Click to expand...

Who cares if you report something? The question is how you will include it in your analysis.

If you transmit "1", and I hear "Chicago", that is a failure on your part.

Your claim is that you are transmitting a single number to every person on the planet. Each person is a data point. These fall into three categories.
1) Non-participation. These can be excluded from your analysis.
2) Hits. People who participate correctly report your number.
3) Misses. People who participate and do not correctly report your number.

That's it. You don't get to throw out failures that are so bad they don't even fit into your range of numbers.
 
Michel H said:
Well, on the one hand, I can look at comments that people provide with their answers. And, on the other hand, I can use standard tools provided by the statistical science, to try to assess whether any apparent result is statistically significant, by calculating the p-value.
Click to expand...

How is your assessment of "comments that people provide with their answers" an objective test of the response? If someone says "7, but that's just a guess," do you immediately discard it as a part of your statistical set, as either a hit or a miss? If, OTOH, a response is unaccompanied by any comment that betrays whether it's a guess or an honest (from your POV) "reception", how do you tell the difference?

And how can you calculate the probability value of your entire statistical result when you haven't objectively demonstrated the reliability of the responses that make up the numbers in the set to begin with? I could be misunderstanding the whole concept here- I'll admit I'm no statistician- but it sounds like you're putting the p-value cart before the numbers horse.
 
Michel H,

If you feel that your are broadcasting your thoughts to a lot of people, why do you bother to restrict your test to only those you can contact on this Internet Forum? Just broadcast "I am thinking of number x, please indicate this (by email or on a Forum). In this way, the people who receive your number, but lie about it, will not be able to compare with one another and have to pick any number, which due to the large number of responses, will just disappear in the noise and you will not have to judge "reliability." In fact, any response from people not on this Forum would be "a hit."
 
Michel H said:
I'm planning to count them up, and to examine if the target has been answered more (or less) than 10%.
Click to expand...

Serious flaw. If asked to pick a random number between 1 and 10, the most common answers will be 3 or 7.

Michel H said:
However it is true that 6=2.3 and 9=3.3 are more related to 3 than 8 or 10 for example. These kinds of observations can be made in a more qualitative analysis.
Click to expand...
Michel H said:
Well, that's a tough question. In such a case, I think it would be better to say that you "can't make up my mind between 2 or 7", rather than just "don't know". In this way, you would preserve some possible information better.
Click to expand...
Michel H said:
Well, in that case, feel free to say it. It could perhaps be related to the actual target number, or perhaps make some sense, have some significance in some other way.
Click to expand...

All completely unacceptable! (Funny how all these options allow you to manipulate the odds in your favor.) If you're going to play these silly games again, the whole thing is worthless.

The whole point of using a larger range was to make it so that you wouldn't have to do this sort of post-hoc analysis! With a large enough range (which this really isn't, though it's certainly better than 1-4), the chance of any hits (let alone more than one) will be extraordinary enough to warrant further investigation without all this nonsense.

Try again with 1-1000. See if you can get a single, solitary hit! All it takes is one person actually receiving your signal.

And the answers need to be blinded so people don't influence each other.
 
Why are there not millions of people worldwide writing to their newspapers asking why they and everyone they know keep hearing a voice calling out numbers to them?

Is it because;
a) there isn't really a voice since telepathy is not real
b) there isn't really a b, it's just a, telepathy simply doesn't exist
 
Michel H said:
Well, that's a tough question. In such a case, I think it would be better to say that you "can't make up my mind between 2 or 7", rather than just "don't know". In this way, you would preserve some possible information better.
Click to expand...

Well, I am getting a number. More than one actually. But to use your own protocol, "I cannot make up my mind between" 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, or 10. Hopefully I have "preserved some possible information better" for you and you take this post in the spirit in which it was intended.

Norm
 
Now I am getting more numbers - It could be a 3, or a 7, and there is a 9 flitting around in there somewhere. Hope this gets to you as it leaves me.

Norm
 
Akhenaten said:
The list of valid answers for this test is growing exponentially. So far we have:


  1. any of the numbers between 1 and 10,

  2. any number that may be mathematically derived from the numbers between 1 and 10,

  3. any number that may graphically resemble a number between 1 and 10,

  4. any combination of the numbers between 1 and 10,

  5. any number, and

  6. "I don't know".


I reckon we'll get a few hits.
Click to expand...

I think we will also see the testmaster add some hits if anyone uses the words won, too, for, or ate.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom