Merged New telepathy test: which number did I write ?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Michel H,

Once again. you should ask what your purpose is for doing this "test."

You appear to be convinced that you broadcast your thoughts to others, even when prior tests have failed, so there is no point for you to do another "test."

You will not convince the other people on the Forum, given the problems they have pointed out with your methodology. So there is no point for them to do another "test." After the last one, I even doubt that you will get any serious participation, even the small participation that occurred last time.

Just save everyone the effort and forget it. Thanks!
 
You will not convince the other people on the Forum, given the problems they have pointed out with your methodology.
He will not convince us that we can read his thoughts, given that we already know perfectly well we cannot read his thoughts. His object is to get some evidence that we can read his thoughts even though we deny it.

A reminder: Michel is a diagnosed schizophrenic who refuses to accept that his perception that others can hear his thoughts is a symptom of his illness. He's convinced that everybody can hear them, and is lying when they say they can't. He thinks that in a test like this some people will continue to lie (i.e. deliberately give the wrong number) but others will be unable to resist giving the right number. He believes he can tell which are which, hence the "credibility rating" nonsense. No matter what results he gets in his tests he always finds a way to interpret them that enables him to retain his delusion.
 
When I'm talking about a 10% hit rate without telepathy, I am of course implying that, if the target is a 3, the answer has to be a 3, and not 6 and 9. However it is true that 6=2.3 and 9=3.3 are more related to 3 than 8 or 10 for example. These kinds of observations can be made in a more qualitative analysis.


Not if you want this test to display even the smallest amount of rigor.
 
Well it is. But I can't tell you before the results surely. I used a hash thingy in a sentence to encode it
Even if you are not quite sure, I would like to receive one of the ten possible answers: 1, 2, ..., 9, 10 from you (and also, from any member of this forum btw). If you really have no idea at all, then please answer "I don't know". You don't need to post a hash in this test. The same applies to Nay_Sayer, who also posted a hash, in post 1535.
 
Michel, what objective method are you using to distinguish, in your statistical analysis, between people who are actually receiving your number, and those who are simply guessing correctly at it? After all, if you assume that all (or any part) of the correct responses are received from your transmissions, and not wild guesses, then aren't you just assuming what you need to prove?

And I hope you're not counting "I don't know" as one of the possibilities in computing your stats; unless the number you wrote down was "I don't know," that's a non-answer, separate from what you should be counting in your statistical set (except as a miss).
 
Last edited:
Even if you are not quite sure, I would like to receive one of the ten possible answers: 1, 2, ..., 9, 10 from you (and also, from any member of this forum btw).


Of course you would.

Because if enough people actually post numbers in that range then someone is bound to pick your special number and then all you have to do is discount every other submission due to low credibility and declare a 100% success.

Do you really think we were all born yesterday? Do you think that all of the objections to your previous tests have somehow been forgotten? Are you totally unaware that your own CR has been more-or-less assessed as -1000?



If you really have no idea at all , then please answer "I don't know".


That group would include about 7 billion people. I can't help but think that's going to impact on your hit/miss ratio.



You don't need to post a hash in this test.


We don't need to do anything at all, as it happens.



The same applies to Nay_Sayer, who also posted a hash, in post 1535.


Are you anywhere near realising how much trouble you might have saved yourself if you'd given this hash nonsense a big miss from the outset?
 
What if I can't make up my mind between 2 or 7 does that count as a don't know?
Well, that's a tough question. In such a case, I think it would be better to say that you "can't make up my mind between 2 or 7", rather than just "don't know". In this way, you would preserve some possible information better.
 
Well, that's a tough question. In such a case, I think it would be better to say that you "can't make up my mind between 2 or 7", rather than just "don't know". In this way, you would preserve some possible information better.


Now the choices have expanded to "all the numbers between 1 and 10", "I don't know" and "some combination of the numbers between 1 and 10".

Any more options that we should know about?
 
Now the choices have expanded to "all the numbers between 1 and 10", "I don't know" and "some combination of the numbers between 1 and 10".

Any more options that we should know about?

(Shrug) Looks like Internet cold-reading to me. Though I'm pretty sure that even John Edward hasn't gone so far as to convince himself with his own technique.
 
He will not convince us that we can read his thoughts, given that we already know perfectly well we cannot read his thoughts. His object is to get some evidence that we can read his thoughts even though we deny it.

A reminder: Michel is a diagnosed schizophrenic who refuses to accept that his perception that others can hear his thoughts is a symptom of his illness. He's convinced that everybody can hear them, and is lying when they say they can't. He thinks that in a test like this some people will continue to lie (i.e. deliberately give the wrong number) but others will be unable to resist giving the right number. He believes he can tell which are which, hence the "credibility rating" nonsense. No matter what results he gets in his tests he always finds a way to interpret them that enables him to retain his delusion.

This brings up an important question. What is the purpose of these tests? If the underlying assumption is that everyone, Michel and the public, knows that Michel is projecting his thoughts into everyone's heads, and everyone is just pretending not to hear, who is he trying to convince? He is already convinced. He believes we are already convinced.

So why are we doing this?
 
Well, that's a tough question. In such a case, I think it would be better to say that you "can't make up my mind between 2 or 7", rather than just "don't know". In this way, you would preserve some possible information better.

What if we are clearly getting a number, but it is outside of your 1-10 specification?
 
What if we are clearly getting a number, but it is outside of your 1-10 specification?
Well, in that case, feel free to say it. It could perhaps be related to the actual target number, or perhaps make some sense, have some significance in some other way.
 
Originally Posted by TheSapient View Post
What if we are clearly getting a number, but it is outside of your 1-10 specification?
Well, in that case, feel free to say it. It could perhaps be related to the actual target number, or perhaps make some sense, have some significance in some other way.
Michel? Any chance of you addressing this?
Michel, what objective method are you using to distinguish, in your statistical analysis, between people who are actually receiving your number, and those who are simply guessing correctly at it? After all, if you assume that all (or any part) of the correct responses are received from your transmissions, and not wild guesses, then aren't you just assuming what you need to prove?

Surely you would accept that, human nature being what it is, some folks who are responding with numbers are simply guessing at your target? And, further, that given your ridiculously small sample set and the law of averages, some of those guesses will be correct ones? Without an objective way to distinguish between those who are receiving from you your target number, and those who are only stabbing in the dark at it, your test is meaningless. And if you refuse to recognize, or allow for, the distinction, then you're just assuming whatever it is you're trying to prove by the test- so, again, it's a worthless test (except insofar as it may have any worth to you subjectively).
 
So why are we doing this?
Beats me.

Any small hope I had that by co-operating with his tests we could eventually convince him that we're not lying when we say we can't hear his thoughts was lost long ago; it's clear he will never accept a negative result, he'll always find a way to spin whatever result he gets to maintain his delusion.
 
What if we are clearly getting a number, but it is outside of your 1-10 specification?


Well, in that case, feel free to say it. It could perhaps be related to the actual target number, or perhaps make some sense, have some significance in some other way.


The list of valid answers for this test is growing exponentially. So far we have:


  1. any of the numbers between 1 and 10,

  2. any number that may be mathematically derived from the numbers between 1 and 10,

  3. any number that may graphically resemble a number between 1 and 10,

  4. any combination of the numbers between 1 and 10,

  5. any number, and

  6. "I don't know".


I reckon we'll get a few hits.
 
Without wanting to hijack Michel's thread, I'll just borrow it for a moment to say that the prize I offered previously in the thread is still unclaimed.

Open to anyone, including Michel: to win the telepathy-doesn't-exist challenge you need only be the first person to ring me on my mobile number - the phone number I'm staring at right now - and greet me with the code word I'm staring at right now and I promise I will send you one thousand pounds sterling.


Thank you. We now return you to the usual stuff.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom