Upcoming South African Elections - 7 May

[DarthFishy]

With the South African elections coming up on the 7th of May, I thought there might be some interest in it on these boards as I know that there are a small number of South African's here and a lot more people are interested in SA after the whole Oscar fiasco.

Briefly, to my understanding, the situation is as follows: (This is based on my own knowledge and interpretation of news and commentary in SA, so anyone else who disagrees or has anything to add should feel free to do so!)

The country is currently governed by an ANC (African National Congress) government that got ~65% in the previous election. The ANC is the party of Nelson Mandela, and the party that takes credit for the liberation of South Africa from the Apartheid regime of the National Party. The ANC is a pretty left of centre party, and is in current alliance with the South African Communist Party and COSATU (Confederation of South African Trade Unions). The current President is Jacob Zuma.

In opposition is the DA (Democratic Alliance), led by Helen Zille. Formed out the the ashes of the Democratic Party and the New National Party. The Democratic Party was the main official opposition during the Apartheid years (seeing as the ANC was banned), and the New National Party was to be the re-birth of the National Party (who had been in charge of SA since 1948 up to 1994 when the ANC won the first democratic election).

The DA is still left of centre but to the right of the ANC.

The new kid on the Block is the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), led by Julius Malema. Julius Malema is the ousted head of the ANC Youth League. The EFF is even to the left of the ANC (and by implications the Communist Party). They are also relatively militant in their rhetoric.

Current polls indicate that the ANC will garner about 63% (a drop of about 3%), the DA 22% (a gain of about 6%) and the EFF 5% (a gain of 5% form zero as they are a new party), in the National Election.

I tend to think these polls are pretty accurate and they align with my own predictions.

What is of interest is the outcomes of the Provincial Elections. Briefly SA has 9 provinces, each with their own Premier, Parliament and Legislature. Currently the ANC controls 9 provinces and the DA one (the Western Cape).

Polls indicate that the DA will keep the Western Cape and most of the other provinces will remain ANC controlled. It is Gauteng, the economic heartland of the Country (and some would argue, at least up until recently, the Continent) where the most interesting battle is occurring. While the ANC has been in control of the province since 1994 (results in the 2009 election being: 64%), the DA has been steadily growing in Gauteng. Furthermore they have invested a massive amount of time and effort in their Gauteng campaign, essentially campaigning on their ability to win Gauteng away from the ANC.

While it is unlikely that they will gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng, the rise of the EFF adds an interesting new variable to the equation. While not the most likely outcome, it is not unforeseeable for the DA and EFF together to gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng.

This of course raises the question of a coalition government, the possibility of which has been denied by both the DA and EFF, saying they would not work with each other and the EFF saying they would not work with anybody. Of course, when the rubber hits the road these election promises are likely to be abandoned in favour of more practical outcomes.

If anybody is still reading at this point then I hope I've given you a brief view into our upcoming elections. Please feel free to criticize or correct anything you disagree with or ask any questions for more clarification.

 

[angrysoba]

I saw a Question Time programme after Nelson Mandela died in which party representatives from the main parties debated the post-Mandela future of South Africa.

To me, Lindiwe Mazibuko came across best, while the ANC representative seemed like she couldn't account for the problems South Africa currently has in a very convincing way. The EFF representative pretty explicitly said he wants to take the country on the Mugabe route and spouted what sounded like a lot of teenage revolutionary rhetoric. Unfortunately a lot of it resonated with the audience which was worrying.

 

[DarthFishy]

...teenage revolutionary rhetoric...

This is an excellent way of describing the EFF's position. It sounds like the kind of party I would have formed in High School

As you say, it unfortunately resonates with the poorest of the poor in South Africa, who are still largely the most disadvantaged sector of the country. In essence it appears to me that the EFF has taken over the more extreme positions of the ANC, so naturally they appeal to the same segment of society that the those positions appealed to when the ANC held them. This is compounded by the fact the ANC is acting (and of course has to act) more like a government than a liberation movement, which includes dealing with problems like strikes. This brings the ANC government in direct conflict with the more extreme left wing sections of South African society, which has resulted in tragedies like Marikana.

Lindiwe Mazibuko was for a while the heir apparent to the DA, but it now seems as if Mmusi Maimane (the candidate for Gauteng premier) has taken over that role. I agree though that she is one of the better spoken and more sensible of our politicians!

 

[Skwinty]

For those interested here is a podcast of Gareth Cliff interviewing Julius Malema.

http://goo.gl/6oKFS7

 

[DarthFishy]

For those interested here is a podcast of Gareth Cliff interviewing Julius Malema.

http://goo.gl/6oKFS7

Any chance there's a transcript available somewhere?

 

[MikeG]

DarthFishy, that is an excellent summary of the up-coming battle, in my view.

I had high hopes for Agang-SA and Dr Mamphela Ramphele. Ramphele is one of SAs most distinguished people, former partner of Steve Biko, medical doctor, University Vice Chancellor, World Bank president etc etc. She gave up a very lucrative business career to fight corruption - brand new party that was attracting disillusioned former ANC members, and a lot of old lefties. They seem to have disappeared from the radar, though.

Readers from Europe should understand that our left-right tags, and those of SA, seldom align.

I have also long-argued that Malema could have been the very best thing for SA, because he could have split the ANC asunder. He is of course an un-electable rabble rousing buffoon, corrupt as hell, but if he were to take the radical left wing of the ANC away then the remnant party, even now, has enough quality to possibly start running the country properly..........and at the same time give SA true democracy for the first time. Democracy in my view means having the ability to remove the government through the ballot box, and the moment, and for the entire post-apartheid era, that has been simply unthinkable.

 

[DarthFishy]

DarthFishy, that is an excellent summary of the up-coming battle, in my view.

I had high hopes for Agang-SA and Dr Mamphela Ramphele. Ramphele is one of SAs most distinguished people, former partner of Steve Biko, medical doctor, University Vice Chancellor, World Bank president etc etc. She gave up a very lucrative business career to fight corruption - brand new party that was attracting disillusioned former ANC members, and a lot of old lefties. They seem to have disappeared from the radar, though.

Readers from Europe should understand that our left-right tags, and those of SA, seldom align.

I have also long-argued that Malema could have been the very best thing for SA, because he could have split the ANC asunder. He is of course an un-electable rabble rousing buffoon, corrupt as hell, but if he were to take the radical left wing of the ANC away then the remnant party, even now, has enough quality to possibly start running the country properly..........and at the same time give SA true democracy for the first time. Democracy in my view means having the ability to remove the government through the ballot box, and the moment, and for the entire post-apartheid era, that has been simply unthinkable.

Thank you.

I agree with your assessment of Dr Ramphele and Agang. They really juiced the piglet (to use the JREF term) with the aborted half-merger with the DA. I am surprised at how many people I talk to who I would think are shoe-ins to vote for the DA, basically saying they will vote DA, but only as the lesser of two (or I suppose three) evils.

I somewhat agree with you on Malema. I also think that the pressure Malema is putting on the ANC might force them to start looking carefully at issues of corruption and proper governance, and make them realise that their position is not as secure as they think.

I also just want to confirm that the left-right tags in SA are I would say even more to the left (in general) than in Europe, and some parties and their policies do not easily fit on the standard left-right continuum.

 

[DarthFishy]

Just some more information about the general election procedure here in SA.

Tomorrow is Election Day, which is also a public holiday. This means that the majority of people in SA will have the day off. The election stations are open from 7:00am to 9:00pm, but will only close once everybody queuing has had a chance to vote.

You have to had registered at any one of the approximately 22 000 voting stations across the country, with your national Identity Document to be eligible to vote.

One the day of the election, your Identity (confirmed via your Identity Document) will be compared to the Voter's Roll for that polling station. If it is confirmed, your name will be crossed out, your ID will be stamped and an indelible ink mark will be placed on your left thumb as anti-fraud measures.

After this you get two ballot papers (one for National Elections and one for Provincial), where you can make your selection of the party you wish to vote for on each.

Pretty straightforward process and so far in my experience a pretty quick one as well (though this depends on where you vote of course).

 

[Puppycow]

 

[DarthFishy]

Interesting video Puppycow.

I generally agree with much of the video, though there seems to be a bit of an anti-socialist undertone, especially in terms of criticizing the EFF. I generally agree with that criticism though.

What is interesting to note about the EFF is the support they are getting from the poor white Afrikaans community.

What bothers me is that, I know about all these protests in the country, but they have not effected me at all personally. I sometimes wonder how far removed from the life of an average South African I actually am? And this is after having made conscious decisions not to hide away in a white security estate, but to live very close to the centre of Johannesburg, to teach at the University of Johannesburg (whose student's are more representative of the average South African than a lot of other Universities).

It also goes to show that the video in question is not showing the whole picture (though probably a very important part of the picture.)

Interesting stuff though.

 

[Puppycow]

Reason.com is a libertarian-leaning site (not loony-libertarian though), so the anti-socialist thing is par for the course.

Are they not right about the EFF though?

It sounds like they are ideologically allied with Mugabe:
http://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/eff-sends-birthday-wishes-to-mugabe-1.1651122#.U2jgFcaqkxc

I trust I don't have to explain to you how bad that is.

 

[angrysoba]

What is interesting to note about the EFF is the support they are getting from the poor white Afrikaans community.

That's unusual. The guy who appeared on the QT programme, Andile Mngxitama, wrote a piece in March explaining why he thinks white people should vote EFF:

Why should white people vote for the radical new political party led by Julius Malema? The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) does not mince its words, it stands for the expropriation of land without compensation and nationalisation of mines and banks. EFF basically wants to end the 350 years of white domination that started with the arrival of Jan van Riebeeck in 1652. The white and black relations over this time have been defined by conquest and subjection of black people by a settler minority that has become an economic, political and cultural majority in a foreign land it has usurped.

Whites domination has been so complete that in South Africa, that whites haven't even bordered to learn the native languages, instead they have forced blacks to learn white languages and as part of cultural domination even forced blacks to have white names for easy instruction as servants. In fact, in the eyes of whites blacks are impersonal mass of labour suppliers, we could all be Pieter, John or whatever the individual white wishes. Growing up in the old Transvaal now North West province, it was common occurrence that a random white would call a black they have never met before by any name they wished and the black would sheepishly comply to the erasure of their beings. Basically, whites could do as they wish with blacks, literally.

Jani Allan has asked me on Twitter to write her a letter, to try persuade her as a white woman to vote for EFF. As a Black Consciousness adherent, I generally have nothing to do with whites, I honestly believe that whites owe blacks such a huge debt they can never repay in full. But I also believe the responsibility for redress is a burden of black people alone. We blacks must determine what it would take to get reparations without regards to the feelings of those who benefited from our oppression.

...

For whites to vote EFF is to vote for a shared future that works. But as we all know the privileged are not in the habit of voluntarily surrendering their power. This leaves the dispossessed with no option but to reclaim their lost land and dignity by any means necessary. Whites have the burden of whiteness, a burden that they have no immediate desire to shed. Blacks also have a burden to redress the past; it is a burden that can’t be tolerated much longer.

 

[DarthFishy]

Reason.com is a libertarian-leaning site (not loony-libertarian though), so the anti-socialist thing is par for the course.

Are they not right about the EFF though?

It sounds like they are ideologically allied with Mugabe:
http://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/eff-sends-birthday-wishes-to-mugabe-1.1651122#.U2jgFcaqkxc

I trust I don't have to explain to you how bad that is.

I thought as much about Reason.com and yes the EFF is (mostly) really bad news for SA.

As MikeG commented the EFF is useful as a wakeup call for the ANC. I truly hope they never get into any position of real power!

I just wanted to mention that the view of SA they gave was, while accurate, not complete. My wife, for example, went today as a Design Student, to the center of Joburg for a class assignment. She mentioned that the places in which she was had the feeling of European cities like Berlin or Copenhagen in terms of what is being done regarding urban renewal.

I did like the bits where they basically admitted that the SA Constitution is better than the USA one

 

[DarthFishy]

That's unusual. The guy who appeared on the QT programme, Andile Mngxitama, wrote a piece in March explaining why he thinks white people should vote EFF:

I agree that it is unusual. But its happening:

Malema wants white EFF members

I find it interesting how many white people I know how jokingly say that they have considered voting for the EFF.

The EFF is a weird mixture of militant communism and black consciousness (for lack of a better word). Militant communism is still a pretty white invention, and there is a significant percentage of poor whites for whom the EFF's message really resonates.

I think it's instructive to remember that mine work strikes are very much a feature of South African history, c.f. Rand Rebellion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The parallels with Marikana are striking and incredibly ironic.

 

[DarthFishy]

Also thanks to whomever added the tags

 

[MikeG]

........I did like the bits where they basically admitted that the SA Constitution is better than the USA one

That bar is set very low indeed!

African constitutions? There's a whole other thread........

 

[angrysoba]

The EFF is a weird mixture of militant communism and black consciousness (for lack of a better word). Militant communism is still a pretty white invention, and there is a significant percentage of poor whites for whom the EFF's message really resonates.

Yeah, it's the word Mngxitama himself used, and he likes to quote Malcolm X.

My understanding is that the ANC were once Soviet-affiliated while ZANU-PF was affiliated with China. Does some of this ideological connection remain and if so, does EFF receive support from China?

 

[DarthFishy]

Yeah, it's the word Mngxitama himself used, and he likes to quote Malcolm X.

My understanding is that the ANC were once Soviet-affiliated while ZANU-PF was affiliated with China. Does some of this ideological connection remain and if so, does EFF receive support from China?

I'm not to sure where exactly the EFF is getting its support from, but seeing as the EFF is pretty much a ANC breakaway, I suspect that ideologically at least they would still be affiliated with Soviet style communism.

In terms of actual support I have heard rumours that they are being heavily supported by ZANU-PF, which I suppose would in turn mean that they are being supported by by China. The validity of these rumours is pretty low so I'm not putting too much stock in them.

 

[DarthFishy]

So I did vote yesterday, and for myself and my wife the process was incredibly easy and smooth.

It was a lovely day, and the voting station (at a local church) is quite close to our house so we decided to walk. We got to the voting station, had our ID's scanned and we were given a small receipt with your ID number, voting station and a voting number.

We where then split up by surnames (first half of the alphabet going to one hall, the second half to another). My wife and I don't share a surname, but we are close enough together to both be in the same queue.

There were about 5 people in front of us, before we got to the verification tables. There a IEC (Independent Electoral Commision) staff member took in my 'receipt', checked by ID against the voters roll, and marked off my name on the list. At the next table, my thumb was marked with indelible ink, and a stamp made in my ID book to confirm that I had voted. Here I was also given the national and provincial ballot papers.

I had to wait for about 20 seconds until one of the five voting booths opened up. I then voted, making a pen marking on paper next to the candidate and party I wanted to vote form. After this I folded the ballot papers up again, and dropped them into the correct ballot box, either for provincial or national elections.

Then I walked out and joined my wife who was waiting for me. This whole process took probably less than 10 minutes.

I know a number of other voting stations and some problems with supplies, and long queues but in general I believe the entire process went pretty smoothly.

 

[DarthFishy]

With about 6 million out of 25 million registered voters, votes counted, the ANC has 61%, the DA 24% and the EFF 4% (with a bunch of smaller parties making up the rest).

Seems so far the results are matching the pre-elections polls, though with the DA being up a percent or two from the predicted results.

Many of the large urban areas have not yet reported in, so there is still a lot that can change though.