Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Bill Williams]

I actually don't think its fair to judge Nencini's opinion against actual truth or even what we would think of as, 'common logic'. Nencini's logic is 'uncommon' because he begins with the logical predicates of 'procedural facts' namely the conclusions of the ISC regarding Guede's fast track trial. Once constrained in this counter factual fairy land, there's no way out from the bottom of the rabbit hole. I'm actually intrigued by Nencini's conundrum. What a pickle, how could anyone find their way out of that box, without looking foolish when running up against the actual facts, evidence, and law?

Poor Rudy? No, Poor Nencini!

Nencini has invented things, though. His greatest invention has to do with genetics, where females can now leave Y-Haplotypes on a bra clasp. IIRC that was not a 'procedural fact" any other court locked him into.

 

[Dan O.]

[Such a circumstance] acquires probative value only when multiple pieces of evidence can all be traced to a single cause or a single effect. In applying this, therefore, the judge must first examine each item of evidence [indizio], identifying all its possible logical connections, then ascertaining their gravity, which is inversely proportional to the number of such connections, as well as the precision, which is correlated to the sharpness of [the item's] contours, the clarity of its representation, to the direct or indirect source of knowledge from which it derives, [and thus] to its reliability.


I think it means that the more connection to one piece of evidence the less value it has. So if a finger print might be compatible with 10 people that were related to the cottage it would have a much lower gravity than if it were only two. It lines up with the three compatible rule.

I made that argument much earlier. Though I don't think the judge has it exactly right. If we were to draw a connections graph for events and the evidence for those events, some events are well supported by multiple pieces of evidence that provide a detailed view of what happened. Other events are vaguely supported by little evidence. Then there are what I call a loose ends that must be cleaned up and these create the need for events such as the suposed cleanup of missing footprints with no other supporting evidence. And then there is the Italian way of creating events out of thin air with no evidence at all.

If the connection matrix were expressed formally in Baysian terms with priors derives through scientific testing or studies we would be able to achieve numerically accurate justice.

 

[Bill Williams]

Hmm, because I am relatively new to this, I feel energised. Popper is on the winning Italian side against Sollecito. You and LJ can easily declare the obvious, he is wrong thus of little brain. I wish I could get a handle on why he and his elk are winning.

[/HILITE]

Do you really see it in those terms?

I don't see any "elk" winning as they are not indigenous to Italy.

Yet, with the Nencini report we can see the method by which that side is winning.

Now that it is a "procedural fact" that Raffaele's DNA was found on the kitchen knife - a claim completely unknown until now, and not even brought up by prosecutor Crini at the Florence trail.....

They now have another weapon other than calunnia or defamation to keep people in check.

Amanda Knox complains about getting hit at interrogation, and they charge her with defamation. Knox's parents simply repeat that to John Follain, Follain writes it for The Telegraph and Knox's parents (neither Follain or The Telegraph though!) get similarly charged.

Now if someone does not play ball, they simply add their DNA to the knife! Raffaele has not ratted out Amanda, so Raffaele's DNA is all of a sudden six and one-half years after Stefanoni's sterling work gets added to the knife.

Soon they will be finding Bongiorno's Y-Haplotypes on the knife. I have it on good authority that AngloLawyer's DNA is on the knife and they're just keeping that in reserve hoping he'll one day visit Italy. They'll spring it then.

I think Peter Quennell's DNA is on the knife. Why not? This is a case where one simply gets to assert things. There are posters on this very thread who believe that as long as a post begins with the phrase, "It is logical that....." then that automatically makes the assertion logical.

Who says none of us have learned from the Italian system?

 

[NancyS]

Nencini has invented things, though. His greatest invention has to do with genetics, where females can now leave Y-Haplotypes on a bra clasp. IIRC that was not a 'procedural fact" any other court locked him into.

Is he now claiming that Amanda has Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome, this does take more and more bizarre twists.

 

[acbytesla]

In case it hasn't been posted, CNN ran a 30-minute interview tonight with Amanda. Chris Cuomo is not an especially sympathetic interviewer, but he gave her a chance to speak for herself. It continues to disappoint me that Amanda hasn't gotten some media training that would allow her to take control of an interview. She basically responded to his questions and his premises. She didn't say something like "Let's start from the beginning. There are two alternative theories. One is that a known burglar surprised a woman alone in her home and killed her. The other is that two college students with no prior criminal records conspired with a known thug that they didn't know to murder another college student. Which makes more sense?" I would like to have seen her take apart the allegations.

Only an excerpt at their site:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/01/us/amanda-knox-interview/

On this I wholeheartedly agree. Amanda still comes off frightened..sort of desperately telling her story. That was fine a year ago, but not now. She needs to become more polished Just because she is asked a question doesn't really mean that her answers have to address that specific question. She absolutely should be having practice interview sessions with pros showing her how to ignore the premise of the question and pivot to what she wants and needs to say.

 

[Grinder]

I am certainly not gleeful. I believe I am consistent as the Italian Supreme Court upheld all of the prosecution points of appeal in March 2013 it ordered a second appeal, judicially speaking the Perugia appeal verdict was set aside.

I look forward to reading the translation of the Florence motivations, given your view you must be confident of the defence team’s chances of a successful appeal?

Do you believe either defence teams should use legal arguments based on findings in the Perugia appeal against the Florence motivations?

I have no faith in the ISC. You forgot to comment on the fact that issues from the Perugia appeal were part of the Florence appeal so Hellmann does still exist in some way. They tested the material C&V found so C&V were part of this latest trial.

Yes, I believe that C&V should be used if the Italian system allows it and if not, I would make it a major PR effort.

If I were working for the defense I would put equal money and energy into a short video showing the "impossible" climb, the collection video, a summary of what top Italian scientists independently found, show what they call footprints etc.

Have you ever followed a case that you found the court ruled incorrectly? Does it bother you if the claimed mistakes in this report turn out to be true mistakes?

 

[anglolawyer]

I made that argument much earlier. Though I don't think the judge has it exactly right. If we were to draw a connections graph for events and the evidence for those events, some events are well supported by multiple pieces of evidence that provide a detailed view of what happened. Other events are vaguely supported by little evidence. Then there are what I call a loose ends that must be cleaned up and these create the need for events such as the suposed cleanup of missing footprints with no other supporting evidence. And then there is the Italian way of creating events out of thin air with no evidence at all.

If the connection matrix were expressed formally in Baysian terms with priors derives through scientific testing or studies we would be able to achieve numerically accurate justice.

Good grief. Stick to your day job, Dan O.

 

[carbonjam72]

Is there a moral choice in an immoral setting?

Nencini has invented things, though. His greatest invention has to do with genetics, where females can now leave Y-Haplotypes on a bra clasp. IIRC that was not a 'procedural fact" any other court locked him into.

I think we're in agreement that Nencini is way past silly. But his inventive silliness, follows I think from the logical constraints - however illogical - that the ISC has imposed.

Multiple attachers? ergo, Nencini must scrounge around for 'evidence' that could maybe be applied to support the prerequisite conclusions. But the flatly false statements as you've pointed out are hard to explain as consistent with honest argument.

As I've said, Nencini has tossed in so many contradictions, I think its a legitimate question as to whether he wants his opinion rejected by ISC on review. Really hard to say, he doesn't come off as a particularly able or honest fellow.

 

[Bill Williams]

Is he now claiming that Amanda has Androgen Insensitivity Syndrome, this does take more and more bizarre twists.

What? Are you making this up? IIRC this means that he's claiming that genetically Amanda is a male? That she is only morphologically female?

 

[anglolawyer]

Actually, what I think we are seeing with Nencini is symptomatic of a strategy of haste. This trial was lined up with great speed following publication of the ISC motivation and Nencini has bashed out his 377 pages on time. It's not surprising when a case is as complicated as this that there should be so many crass errors. What interests me is who, behind the scenes, is driving this along at great pace and why.

 

[js202]

Wouldn't matter even if this were true. The US does whatever it pleases.

"Spoken" like a sad, envious Canadian or Brit.

 

[Bill Williams]

Actually, what I think we are seeing with Nencini is symptomatic of a strategy of haste. This trial was lined up with great speed following publication of the ISC motivation and Nencini has bashed out his 377 pages on time. It's not surprising when a case is as complicated as this that there should be so many crass errors. What interests me is who, behind the scenes, is driving this along at great pace and why.

C'mon. There are errors and there are blunders. Then draw the line from those two points another couple of time-zones and you have the Nencini report.

Y-haplotypes belonging to women, and Raffaele's DNA suddenly (after six+ years) on the knife.....

Error?

Blunder?

Nencini?

When one has the choice between conspiracy and incompetence..... for heaven's sake - Nencini may be saying he believes Amanda is a man!!!!!

 

[Bill Williams]

"Spoken" like a sad, envious Canadian or Brit.

We may be sad, but never envious. I for one will take the hurt caused by this insult and go for 10 free psychiatric sessions under universal healthcare. Then I'll get back to you when I am no longer sad, cured on the tab of the taxpayer.

You sort should drop this phobia about socialism then get back to us.

 

[sunmaster14]

<snip>

When one has the choice between conspiracy and incompetence..... for heaven's sake - Nencini may be saying he believes Amanda is a man!!!!!

Why did the prosecution refused to DNA test the probable semen stain?

I think they were afraid that Stefanoni's rigorous procedures might lead to a determination that it came from Amanda Knox.

Well, there goes my theory out the window.

 

[anglolawyer]

C'mon. There are errors and there are blunders. Then draw the line from those two points another couple of time-zones and you have the Nencini report.

Y-haplotypes belonging to women, and Raffaele's DNA suddenly (after six+ years) on the knife.....

Error?

Blunder?

Nencini?

When one has the choice between conspiracy and incompetence..... for heaven's sake - Nencini may be saying he believes Amanda is a man!!!!!

Clearly, these are crass errors which suggest a rush job. I remember wondering why the sudden haste after the ISC ruling. The only reason I could think of was pressure. Pressure counts in litigation both mentally and financially. Maybe there is some other reason though. Maybe they want Raffaele and Amanda convicted before Rudy is on the outside, something like that. I bet there's a reason, though.

 

[js202]

We may be sad, but never envious. I for one will take the hurt caused by this insult and go for 10 free psychiatric sessions under universal healthcare. Then I'll get back to you when I am no longer sad, cured on the tab of the taxpayer.

You sort should drop this phobia about socialism then get back to us.

In fact, in March my wife and I took a wonderful trip to Quebec. We stayed at Manoir Hovey - where I have been going since I was a child - in North Hatley, and went skiing both locally, and as far north as Mont Tremblant. Just a fantastic, world-class experience, as it has always been.

So my initial post was intended with more than a soupçon of irony.

Frankly, I am past exhausted with this case being used as a point of departure for anti-Americanism. I am disgusted by the pass that the American air force pilots got over the Cavalese cable car incident; however, either this is an enlightened, transnational board, looking for truths which cut across nursed grievances, or, as we’ve just seen in the last couple pages, it is one that can be set aflame in backbiting conflict - in just one post! - by a preening, self-congratulatory gadfly who has nothing to offer in terms of serious discussion of this case.

 

[Bill Williams]

Frankly, I am past exhausted with this case being used as a point of departure for anti-Americanism. I am disgusted by the pass that the American air force pilots got over the Cavalese cable car incident; however, either this is an enlightened, transnational board, looking for truths which cut across nursed grievances, or, as we’ve just seen in the last couple pages, it is one that can be set aflame in backbiting conflict - in just one post! - by a preening, self-congratulatory gadfly who has nothing to offer in terms of serious discussion of this case.

Given my own pedigree and your own experience north of the 49th.... well, it's not the 49th there, but you know what I mean.....

..... you'll appreciate that when necessary I can get up a head of steam in the anti-American department. It's especially advantageous that I live in a country with the largest English population never to have lost a war, and the largest French population never to have surrendered to Germany.....

In this case, though, whenever one trots out anti-Americanism, it is....where's Grinder.... a canard. It means whoever is bringing it up has nothing relevant to say otherwise. It's the equivalent to, "oh look, squirrel!"

Botched executions in Oklahoma? The US legal system is botched to even allow executions!!!! What's that got to do with investigative myopia in Perugia in 2007?

 

[Dan O.]

In rejecting possible contamination for the bra-clasp, Nencini does not consider any activity in the date range of Nov 2 to 6th. Heck, Even Massei relates the concern that the group from "118" on the first day went into Meredith's room, but Massei rules that out because Stefanoni told him that the clasp was "probably" under Meredith at that time.

On what date was the pillowcase removed and collected as evidence exposing the clasp again and at a time that evidence was being collected? We know this was prior to the December visit because the pillow is seen naked in the wardrobe on that date.

 

[Dan O.]

Good grief. Stick to your day job, Dan O.

Why is it that the mention of math sends shivers through the spines of otherwise stoic men?

 

[Grinder]

This what Popper is on about. Popper is an idiot, though. What he is saying that if you have a piece of lousy evidence it suddenly becomes good because of other pieces of lousy evidence. That is not how it works!

Take Curatolo. Nothing corroborates him. If it did, his evidence, lousy as it is, might acquire some limited value. If there were CCTV footage of them walking down to the piazza, for example, or if somebody else saw them too, or one of them cracked and said they were in the piazza or they dropped something there etc etc. If you had all those things, mind, you probably wouldn't need Curatolo at all. What does not corroborate Curatolo is Nara, say, the phones being found at Lana's or a hundred other things and that is true of most (all?) the evidence - it does not line up and compel you to a particular conclusion. Instead it's a jumble of stuff treading on the toes of other stuff. Of course, it's really worse than that because a good deal of it is simply made up, which, of course, makes it circumstantial evidence of something else entirely!

Popper has latched onto something he or she has not properly understood.

I truly believe that Italians' brains operate differently. Mach, Popper and Clander are all intelligent but have brains that are wired differently. They don't question a Curatolo because why would he lie. They believe that 3 compatibles equal a match - they really believe that.

Curatolo is ruled out by the Naruto video so the time has to be fudged to 9:20. Why would Nonsense not move Curatolo to 9:35?