Youth and war, a deadly duo

stocks

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Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself.

Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2a-11db-8ec6-0000779e2340.html
 
From the link in the OP:

Societies with a glut of young men become temperamentally different from "singleton societies" such as Europe's, where the prospect of sending an only child to war is almost unthinkable. Europe's pacifism since 1945, in Mr Heinsohn's view, reflects an inability to wage war, not a disinclination.
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Interesting. Pre 1900s, weren't European countries constantly at each other's throats? Especially England and France? World peace, to the extent it exists, probably owes more to the birth control pill than any diplomatic efforts.
 
stocks said:
Gangland slayings in the Palestinian territories this week have pitted the Islamist gunmen of Hamas against the secular forces of Fatah. The killings defy civilised norms: in December even children were targeted for murder. But the killings also defy political common sense. Ariel Sharon's wall cuts terrorists off from Israeli targets and what happens? The violence - previously justified with the cause of a Palestinian homeland - continues as if nothing had changed, merely finding its outlet in a new set of targets. This makes it appear that Palestinian violence has never really been about a "cause" at all. The violence is, in a strange way, about itself.

Gunnar Heinsohn, a social scientist and genocide researcher at the University of Bremen, has an explanation for why this might be so. Since its publication in 2003, his eccentric and eye-opening Sons and World Power* (not available in English) has become something of a cult book. In Mr Heinsohn's view, when 15 to 29-year-olds make up more than 30 per cent of the population, violence tends to happen; when large percentages are under 15, violence is often imminent. The "causes" in the name of which that violence is committed can be immaterial. There are 67 countries in the world with such "youth bulges" now and 60 of them are undergoing some kind of civil war or mass killing.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/652fa2f6-9d2a-11db-8ec6-0000779e2340.html
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Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion.

DR
 
Darth Rotor said:
Hmmmmm. The Chinese demographic shift, due to birth rates of sons versus daughters, would under this model argue for either a civil war in China in the next ten to 15 years, or a more bellicose China in its reagion.

DR
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India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population.

Interesting times, indeed.
 
Hutch said:
India also. And don't forget that Iran has a very young (relatively speaking) population.

Interesting times, indeed.
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Maybe Rangel's draft idea isn't so nutso, or maybe the Weinberger Doctrine needs to be dusted off, and used.

Let 'em play, as it were. :p

DR
 
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