World must wake to China threat

[Matteo Martini]

What do you think about this?
" People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Zhu Chenghu (朱成虎) recently showed his true colors when he boasted in a manner typical of a bully and one accustomed to a rigid social hierarchy. Zhu threatened that if the US intervened in a war between China and Taiwan, China would not hesitate to use its nuclear weapons against cities on the American west coast. "

Links:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/08/01/2003265977
http://www.nationalreview.com/derbyshire/derbyshire200508010811.asp
http://www.theepochtimes.com/news/5-7-25/30545.html

 

[Kopji]

China is a big country and the various political, economic, and military segments seem disconnected in their messages sometimes. It does not seem uncommon for an individual to shoot off their mouth and not represent the bigger picture.

While I do not consider China harmless, I also do not consider them stupid. Even a minor military exchange between China and the US might mean disaster for quite a large segment of the US and China economy that are interlinked.

 

[Matteo Martini]

While I do not consider China harmless, I also do not consider them stupid.

Maybe also Hitler in the `30s was not a stupid

Even a minor military exchange between China and the US might mean disaster for quite a large segment of the US and China economy that are interlinked.

The question is, do China` s regime care more about power or their economy & people?

 

[Kopji]

Maybe also Hitler in the `30s was not a stupid



The question is, do China` s regime care more about power or their economy & people?

Oh the world is full of little Hitlers. Has anyone learned much?

A regime keeping power is directly related to their economy. I could probably come up with examples if you like.

If China collapsed their next big holiday would be Tienanmen Square Day (not that I'd be sad to see that).

Sheesh, Godwin's Law in one post.

 

[TragicMonkey]

America just had one of its congressmen shoot his fool mouth off about nuking Mecca. We also had a general making public statements about how America is fighting for Jesus. Does anyone take random bozos, even those in positions of power, seriously when they say such things?

 

[Matteo Martini]

Oh the world is full of little Hitlers. Has anyone learned much?

Yes, but all the other nations with " little Hitlers " do not have the economic and military potential as China

A regime keeping power is directly related to their economy. I could probably come up with examples if you like.

What do you mean?
Please refer to the example of Nazi Germany

If China collapsed their next big holiday would be Tienanmen Square Day (not that I'd be sad to see that).

And if it does not?

 

[Matteo Martini]

America just had one of its congressmen shoot his fool mouth off about nuking Mecca.

Two big differences here:
1) In the U.S. there are many different voices, in China one general who speaks against the line of the Party usually is fired in about 1 hour. General Zhu is still at his place;
2) The U.S. are a democracy, it is difficult for a president to start a war without the consensus of at least a part of the electorate, China is not a democracy, the Party has not to respond of its actions against the electorate

 

[Kopji]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Matteo Martini

Yes, but all the other nations with " little Hitlers " do not have the economic and military potential as China

---

Oh Pakistan certainly qualifies, you only need a couple nukes to have everyone's attention.

You have not really shown how ill considered sabre rattling equates to being like Hitler. China is ruled by a committee of old men who probably spend a good deal of time checking their food to make sure the others have not poisoned them.

If a general actually took action without their approval I doubt he'd still be around to party later.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Matteo Martini

What do you mean?
Please refer to the example of Nazi Germany

---

Must I descend into Godwinism? Ok, letsee. Germany collapsed because they could not get enough fuel to run their economy, which happened to be a war machine at the time. When the economy collapsed they lost.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Matteo Martini

And if it does not?

---

China using nuclear weapons would have several unpredictable effects. A predictable one though, would probably be civil war. Hard to say if the outcome would be more democratic, but certainly more capitalistic.

 

[Matteo Martini]

quote:

---

Originally posted by Matteo Martini

Yes, but all the other nations with " little Hitlers " do not have the economic and military potential as China

---

Oh Pakistan certainly qualifies, you only need a couple nukes to have everyone's attention.

AFAIK, Pakistan is a democracy, maybe not like Holland, but maybe also not like China
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk.html

China is ruled by a committee of old men who probably spend a good deal of time checking their food to make sure the others have not poisoned them.

Maybe you are grossly underestimating China

If a general actually took action without their approval I doubt he'd still be around to party later.

If a general actually took that action without their approval we would not be here talking.

Must I descend into Godwinism? Ok, letsee. Germany collapsed because they could not get enough fuel to run their economy, which happened to be a war machine at the time. When the economy collapsed they lost.

After some 50 million deaths
Shall we repeat history?

quote:

---

Originally posted by Matteo Martini

And if it does not?

---

China using nuclear weapons would have several unpredictable effects. A predictable one though, would probably be civil war. Hard to say if the outcome would be more democratic, but certainly more capitalistic.

Or maybe world war?
And the outcome, better not to think about it

 

[egslim]

From Chinese POV Taiwan is a rebellious province, not a sovereign country. And lack of recognition by many countries enforces that idea.

What if China is able to assault the island, capture the capital and install a puppet government in a few days time?

In case of such a fait accompli it would take a prolonged war effort to kick them out again - as the US currently doesn't even have the necessary amphibious assault capability for that. (1) No nearby airbases, and carriers would have to operate in Kilo-infested shallow waters.

Would the international community be willing to fight such a war with a nuclear power and suffer severe economic disruption over what is just an internal dispute?
I can very well imagine Chinese leadership answering that question with "no".

(1) http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/factfile/ships/ship-lha.htm 13 ships total, spread out all over the world and always partly under maintenance, with 1900 marines each - 24700 men total. Assaulting an island defended by (at that time) 200.000 with much heavier equipment...

 

[geni]

AFAIK, Pakistan is a democracy, maybe not like Holland, but maybe also not like China
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pk.html

When exactly was Pervez Musharraf elected?

 

[Matteo Martini]

When exactly was Pervez Musharraf elected?

Honestly, I do not know.
But in the CIA World Fact book Pakistan is labeled as a " republic " and there is also mentioned the minimum age to go to vote

 

[Matteo Martini]

Would the international community be willing to fight such a war with a nuclear power and suffer severe economic disruption over what is just an internal dispute?
I can very well imagine Chinese leadership answering that question with "no".

This is how Hitler started with Austria, the Czech, the Poland..

 

[geni]

Honestly, I do not know.
But in the CIA World Fact book Pakistan is labeled as a " republic " and there is also mentioned the minimum age to go to vote

Oh forumly in between millitry coups it does tend to be a federal republic. However no one elected Pervez Musharraf he came to power as the result of the latest coup.

 

[BPSCG]

What if China is able to assault the island, capture the capital and install a puppet government in a few days time?

In case of such a fait accompli it would take a prolonged war effort to kick them out again - as the US currently doesn't even have the necessary amphibious assault capability for that. (1) No nearby airbases, and carriers would have to operate in Kilo-infested shallow waters.

Ten or fifteen years from now, when China has a couple of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers plying the Taiwan straits (paid for with money we sent them through our middleman, aka Wal-Mart), and the Chinese foreign minister calls in the U.S. ambassador and tells him, "We're going to invade Taiwan tomorrow; we are prepared to lose two or three cities in a nuclear exchange, if need be; how many are you prepared to lose?", what does the U.S. ambassador reply?

No, China is not remotely the military equal of the U.S.

Today.

Does anyone believe they intend to allow that state of affairs to continue indefinitely?

Back to the OP: If a U.S. general were to pop off like that, he'd be fired. I'd feel better about the Chinese's intentions if this guy had been fired. The fact that he wasn't, wasn't even disciplined, AFAIK, speaks volumes.

 

[Orwell]

Beware of the yellow peril!

I've used these numbers somewhere else, I think it's worth it to use them again (I don't wanna let all my work to be for naught):

Taiwanese investment in mainland China: It is estimated that somewhere between 23,000 and 59,000 Taiwanese businessmen have invested from US$17 billion to US$56 billion.

http://www.cefc.com.hk/uk/pc/articles/art_ligne.php?num_art_ligne=1711

(...) although Taiwan's economic growth has in the past relied on running a trade surplus with the US, China has in recent years been supplanting the US as Taiwan's major trading partner. Last year, for example, Taiwan's export trade to the US totaled US$50.5 billion, while exports to China -- including goods channeled through Hong Kong and Macau -- totaled US$61.7 billion. More importantly, Taiwan's trade surplus with the US amounted to US$5.7 billion, while the trade surplus with China reached a startling US$28.3 billion. If we subtract that figure from the total export trade figure, then Taiwan has a trade deficit of US$22.1 billion. Equally startling is that exports to China make up 25.9 percent of Taiwan's total exports, and 14.2 percent of GDP, evidence that Taiwan is living off Chinese money. (...) But focusing just on China provides an incomplete picture. When looking at trade between China and Taiwan, we must also look at China-US trade. Twenty-four percent of China's exports are destined for the US, with a net value of US$70 billion.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/07/16/2003263775

U.S.A. Imports - partners: Canada 17.1%, China 13.7%, Mexico 10.4%, Japan 8.8%, Germany 5.2% (2004)

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#Econ

 

[seayakin]

Beware of the yellow peril!

I've used these numbers somewhere else, I think it's worth it to use them again (I don't wanna let all my work to be for naught):

http://www.cefc.com.hk/uk/pc/articles/art_ligne.php?num_art_ligne=1711
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/07/16/2003263775
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html#Econ

With the economic ties, I have often pictured a more Hongkong like take over where their is slower integration.

 

[Luke T.]

Doo bee doo bee doo...

In its statement, the Taiwan Affairs Office of China's State Council said that "relations across the Taiwan Strait are severely tested," and described Chen's policies as "aimed at dismembering China."

"The Taiwan leaders have before them two roads," the statement said. "One is to pull back immediately from their dangerous lurch towards independence ... The other is to keep following their separatist agenda to cut Taiwan from the rest of China and, in the end, meet their own destruction by playing with fire."

If Taiwan pursues independence, the statement warned, "the Chinese people will crush their schemes firmly and thoroughly at any cost."

Link 1

That was last year.

Several members of the US Congress on Tuesday criticized Beijing for once again threatening to use military force against Taiwan, and called on the Clinton administration to react more strongly to such intimidation.

Benjamin Gilman, chairman of the House International Relations Committee, said he was "deeply concerned about China's latest effort to intimidate Taiwan."

The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that by issuing a white paper on the "one China" principle, Beijing "has escalated its threat of armed aggression against democratic Taiwan, lowering the threshold by which Beijing would justify an invasion of the island."

Linkage 2

That was 2000.

Anxieties grew in Taiwan on Thursday after a New York Times report said China has plotted a military attack on Taiwan in the weeks following its March presidential elections.

Citizens of Taiwan are shaken by the news, and China's refusal to comment on the matter has increased Taiwan's uneasiness. U.S. officials were skeptical about the chances of an attack, but are monitoring the situation closely.

Linkaroonie 3

That was 1996. We went so far as to deploy American ships to straits of Taiwan during that one.

China's been doing this for as long as I can remember.

If you can find them, read the Nixon-Kennedy debates of 1960. Qemoy and Matsu.

 

[Luke T.]

Ah, here we go. The Third N-K debate, in which in my opinion Nixon kicked Kennedy's ass on foreign policy, we find a discussion of Formosa, aka Taiwan.

MR. VON FREMD: Mr. Vice President, a two-part question concerning the offshore islands in the Formosa Straits. If you were president and the Chinese Communists tomorrow began an invasion of Quemoy and Matsu, would you launch the uh - United States into a war by sending the Seventh Fleet and other military forces to resist this aggression; and secondly, if the uh - regular conventional forces failed to halt such uh - such an invasion, would you authorize the use of nuclear weapons?

MR. NIXON: Mr. Von Fremd, it would be completely irresponsible for a candidate for the presidency, or for a president himself, to indicate the course of action and the weapons he would use in the event of such an attack. I will say this: in the event that such an attack occurred and in the event the attack was a prelude to an attack on Formosa - which would be the indication today because the Chinese Communists say over and over again that their objective is not the offshore islands, that they consider them only steppingstones to taking Formosa - in the event that their attack then were a prelude to an attack on Formosa, there isn't any question but that the United States would then again, as in the case of Berlin, honor our treaty obligations and stand by our ally of Formosa.

Quemoy, Matsu, and Formosa came up often through the first and third debates. China's been threatening to invade from the beginning.

 

[Cleon]

With the economic ties, I have often pictured a more Hongkong like take over where their is slower integration.

Basically, that's what's going to happen. This crap has been going on for years, the chances of it breaking out into a shooting war are pretty slim. As the PRC becomes more of an economic powerhouse, old self-interest will set in and Taiwan's independence movement will likely shrivel up and die.