Why wasn't Iraq broken into three self-governing states?

[stamenflicker]

First of all, hats off to the Kurds who are embracing democracy and actually had been long before the U.S. arrived on the scene.

I understand that Turkey vehemently opposed a Kurdish state and I understand why they opposed it and that their opposition resides on the moral low ground.

It's obvious now with hindsight that the Sunni and the Shia aren't going to get along, although they've had lots of help stoking the fires of hate from the insurgency.

Nevertheless, everyone was opposed to the three self-governing state solution, most noteably the Iraqis themselves, and of them, it was primarily the Sunnis who lack some of the oil resources residing both to the north and south of them.

Even so, it still seemed like a better solution at the time and even more so now with several months between us and the initial decision. Most of all, it would have been a great decision for the peaceful Kurdish people, who've really born the brunt of all hostilities in Iraq since the early Sadaam years.

So why not three self-governing bodies?

 

[ImaginalDisc]

The oil's all concentrated in the S.E. Dividing Iraq would leave one country with all the money and the other two countries very poor.

 

[varwoche]

Easier said than done. Take Baghdad. It has the largest sunni population of any Iraqi city of course, but also the largest shia and kurdish populations.

Still, it seems like the least awful alternative.

 

[Darth Rotor]

The oil's all concentrated in the S.E. Dividing Iraq would leave one country with all the money and the other two countries very poor.

Mosul and Kirkuk are not trivial oil fields.

DR

 

[ImaginalDisc]

Mosul and Kirkuk are not trivial oil fields. [qimg]https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/maps/iz-map.gif[/qimg]

DR

Ok, this thread lead me to beleive that all the oil's concentrated in the S.E. region. Either I got my wires crossed or something.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Ok, this thread lead me to beleive that all the oil's concentrated in the S.E. region. Either I got my wires crossed or something.

I will try to find a map of the Iraqi oil pipeline laydown (something I had to worry about every day a couple of years ago) which should shed some light on where the oil (and thus money) is.

I found a rough map, the green depicts oil, the red natural gas. Click on the link in "product samples." No pipelines, more of a 'here be dead dinosaurs' type of depiction. The pipelines tend to radiate out from Bagdad like a spider's legs.

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c39673

Kurdistan, soon to be a member of OPEC?

SDR

 

[BPSCG]

By whose authority would Iraq be broken up?

If it were broken up, what would stop nuclear Iran from pulling off a latter-day Anschluss in league with the Shiite remainder of Iraq? The UN?

 

[Tricky]

Ok, this thread lead me to beleive that all the oil's concentrated in the S.E. region. Either I got my wires crossed or something.

Here's an oil map of Iraq and surrounding areas showing pipelines:

The fields are concentrated in a northwest-southeast trending zone and in Iraq, are concentrated along the borders with Iran and Kuwait, with a few exceptions.

The ethnic map is much different:

Any division that split resources neatly would play havoc with the current ethnic divisions.

 

[ImaginalDisc]

Here's an oil map of Iraq and surrounding areas showing pipelines:
[qimg]http://chronicle.augusta.com/iraq/graphics/news_oil_fields.gif[/qimg]
The fields are concentrated in a northwest-southeast trending zone and in Iraq, are concentrated along the borders with Iran and Kuwait, with a few exceptions.

The ethnic map is much different:
[qimg]http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/reports/international/media/IRAQ_ethnic_map.jpg[/qimg]

Any division that split resources neatly would play havoc with the current ethnic divisions.

Oh, I see what I did. I had looked at the map, and thought that the oil fields in Iran and Kuwait belonged to Iraq. This is a mistake Saddam also made.

 

[headscratcher4]

One reason in the pot: Turkey. It is unacceptable to Turkey, a long-time U.S. Ally, for there to be a "kurdish" state. They fear that the creation of an offical Kurdistan in Northern Iraq will inspire Turkish Kurds to desire to enlarge that state to include large parts of Eastern Turkey. Turkey has oft threatened armed invasion of the area to prevent the emergence of an indipendent Kurdistan ... oddly enough, such a state would also likely miff the Iranians as well as they have an ethnic Kurdish minority problem that they have had to supress as well.

Another reason is that, IMO, what the neo-con planners really wanted was an Iraq without Saddam that looked an awful lot like the Iraq with Saddam. By this I mean, they saw a unified state led mostly be secular Sunni's able to keep the Shiia in check and able to keep the Kurds in the configuration with a little less brutality. We went to war for "democracy" but I think Rummy and Wolfowitz thought that the Iraqis would view democracy as we do...buy the secular western state model and hold together (if for no other reason than the oil). Alas, the thing about a brutal strong man is that he stands astride lots of societal divisions. Once you remove him, of course, there are lots of smaller potential strong men trying to carve out their own little chunk of oil-rich paradise.

 

[fishbob]

So why not three self-governing bodies?

Implementation of that idea would require planning and data gathering and negotiation and bigtime construction and security and hand-picking 2 more leaderships friendly to the US.

 

[Beerina]

First of all, hats off to the Kurds who are embracing democracy and actually had been long before the U.S. arrived on the scene.

I understand that Turkey vehemently opposed a Kurdish state and I understand why they opposed it and that their opposition resides on the moral low ground.

Turkey doesn't want a Kuridish state because they have a hell of a lot of Kurds in the west, who might rise up (even more than they already are) to try to break away and join it, kind of like Northern Ireland.

At best, it would remain a festering, never-healing wound.

 

[Garrette]

Others have said most of what I would say, and DR beat me to the oil fields thing. In fact, a huge issue even without considering a break up is the Kirkuk oilfields. The Kurds consider the oil to be theirs and the city of Kirkuk itself to be Kurdish. It used to be, until Saddam forcibly removed the Kurds and forcibly replaced them with non-Kurdish Iraqis. Since the summer of 2003, the Kurds have been repatriating themselves to Kirkuk, mostly without official sanction, and frequently violently. Non-Kurdish Iraqis who were forced there and have established homes and lives are now being uprooted again.

Another minor point: Add Syria to the mix of neighbors who do not want an independent Kurdistan.

Final point: The Kurds did not establish democracy prior to the Americans being there; they began it (if you can call it democracy) with the imposition of the no-fly zones. Even then, the two parts of Kurdistan (the Barzani tribe and the Talibani tribe [no relation to the Afghan Taliban]) established separate governments with separate militias and separate ministries. They frequently fought. Only recently have they combined to present a unified front.

And I say this as a fan of the Kurds who has spent time with them.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Turkey doesn't want a Kuridish state because they have a hell of a lot of Kurds in the west, who might rise up (even more than they already are) to try to break away and join it, kind of like Northern Ireland.

At best, it would remain a festering, never-healing wound.

1. Kurds are more concentrated in Southeast Turkey
2. "It" is already a festering wound, though I suspect it could get worse/gangrenous were Kurdistan to arise as a sovereign state.

DR

 

[headscratcher4]

Also, remember how Iraq was originally constituted....it was a province or several provinces of the Ottoman Empire. The Britsh essentially took it during WW1 -- oil, you know. After the war they "managed" it until indipendence (I think in the early 30s). Indipendence was controlled by the Sunni's who put in a "King" (a cousin of the royal house now in Jordan). After that, the Sunnis were running the show and as arab nationalism grew...more repression against Shiia and Kurds kept a check on. In short, it has been a unitary state for about 70 years or so...no real history of it as a unitary state...save that it served energy ambitions and nationalist ambitions...all forces that keep pulling for a unitary state.

Interesteingly enough, it is arguable, at least, that if it were to break up, the Shiia in the south would eventually get tired of the Iranians. They've much in common -- save that they are arab Shiia -- and the differences between Persians and Arab might eventually be exacerbated, whereas so long as Iraq is a Unitary state, the southern Shiia have a ally in the Iranians. Turks, on the other hand, should see a kurdish state as a partial solution to their own problem (seeing as Turkish history is not unused to large population movements to serve needs...Greeks in Turkey to Greece, Turks in Greece to Turkey(. THey could continue to enforce thier boarders and force kurds into a new state -- essentially throwing them out of disputed Turkish territory. In any event, it all looks to be very bloody.

 

[Darth Rotor]

THey could continue to enforce thier boarders and force kurds into a new state -- essentially throwing them out of disputed Turkish territory. In any event, it all looks to be very bloody.

Wasn't Saladin a Kurd? IIRC, he was from Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's home town.

DR

 

[Garrette]

Hypothetically speaking, were the coalition forces to pull out, all neighboring states to leave the (current) Iraqis alone, and civil war to break out, the Kurds are in the best position geographically, militarily, and politically. Save for Kirkuk which lies just outside them, Kurdish territory is mainly in the only mountains in Iraq. They have well-equipped and highly experienced militia (the pesh merga), and their governmental institutions have been functioning well for over a decade.

But those are big ifs....

 

[Garrette]

Wasn't Saladin a Kurd? IIRC, he was from Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's home town.

DR

Yes and no, but the Iraqis I spoke to all claim that the Salah-a-din province in which Tikrit is located is NOT named for Saladin. They couldn't say who it IS named for, though.

In Tikrit, in Saddam's palatial enclave on cliffs overlooking the Tigris (diverted from its course for the purpose of providing good landscaping), is a site where the Iraqis told me Saladin killed himself by riding his horse over the edge to avoid capture.

A very nice romantic story. I declined to inform them that that is neither how nor where Saladin actually died.

 

[Darth Rotor]

Hypothetically speaking, were the coalition forces to pull out, all neighboring states to leave the (current) Iraqis alone, and civil war to break out, the Kurds are in the best position geographically, militarily, and politically. Save for Kirkuk which lies just outside them, Kurdish territory is mainly in the only mountains in Iraq. They have well-equipped and highly experienced militia (the pesh merga), and their governmental institutions have been functioning well for over a decade.

But those are big ifs....

Spring surprise in 2007: US assist the Kurds in a partial "rebellion" in Iran, and intervene to help the Kurdish Nationalists. In cycnical twist, assist Turks in an ethnic cleansing by population transfer into both new Kurdish areas that are now fused into one, with further annexation of Syrian Kurdish lands on the border. Syrian attempts to reatliate crushed by massive US/Turk joint operation. NATO disavows the op. An EU emergency Minesterial meets to consider withdrawal from Washington Treaty by Spring 2008.

Vlad Putin wins Nobel peace prize for fooling everyone as Iran tries to fire a nuke at US forces in northern Iraq and buggers it, exploding a nuclear device on the missile launch pad that is detected by a Russian satellite. He hosts and arranges a cease fire over the course of three months of shuttle diplomacy.

After 60 days of combat suupport to Iranian Kurds, Congress denies follow on resources to Pres, under War Powers act, and all US pulls out of Iran/Kurd support operations completely to deal with Sunni uprising in central and southern Iraq.

Fall 2007: initial impeachment proceedings get underway a week after VP Cheney dies in his sleep from heart failure.

You heard it here first.

DR

 

[steverino]

Also, remember how Iraq was originally constituted....it was a province or several provinces of the Ottoman Empire. The Britsh essentially took it during WW1 -- oil, you know. After the war they "managed" it until indipendence (I think in the early 30s). Indipendence was controlled by the Sunni's who put in a "King" (a cousin of the royal house now in Jordan). After that, the Sunnis were running the show and as arab nationalism grew...more repression against Shiia and Kurds kept a check on. In short, it has been a unitary state for about 70 years or so...no real history of it as a unitary state...save that it served energy ambitions and nationalist ambitions...all forces that keep pulling for a unitary state.

Interesteingly enough, it is arguable, at least, that if it were to break up, the Shiia in the south would eventually get tired of the Iranians. They've much in common -- save that they are arab Shiia -- and the differences between Persians and Arab might eventually be exacerbated, whereas so long as Iraq is a Unitary state, the southern Shiia have a ally in the Iranians. Turks, on the other hand, should see a kurdish state as a partial solution to their own problem (seeing as Turkish history is not unused to large population movements to serve needs...Greeks in Turkey to Greece, Turks in Greece to Turkey(. THey could continue to enforce thier boarders and force kurds into a new state -- essentially throwing them out of disputed Turkish territory. In any event, it all looks to be very bloody.

HEADSCRATCHER- I am having a lot of trouble focusing on your geopolitical views with your avatar, that creepy creep. Can you switch him to a more benevolent dictator, or at least insert a muppet behind him?