Why Kerry is winning NH

kittynh

Penultimate Amazing
K
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No it wasn't the Iowa thing...

we in NH ignore that.

Before Iowa, Kerry started running some new ads. And I have to admit, they are great. Usually, we just tune the tv ads out, as they are running constantly at this time. But this ad was special.

It shows Kerry in Vietnam. He is obviously coming back from something rough, he's standing tall, but a little disheveled. He looks like a leader. He looks like he's been there, walked the walk...so when he talks about Iraq he's not going to screw over our troops. This image just so stands in contrast to Bush in the flight suit, that you get the feeling Kerry could win.

Some of his troops talk about how they trusted this man with their lives, that they would follow him anywhere because they knew he would take care of them. You could hear how these men still cared for him.

This one ad totally blew Dean away. I was almost crying over this ad. Every time it is on, I watch it. It may only be marketing, but it goes to show how one well thought out ad can change the course of history.
 
41 people have viewed this and not one person has anything to say?

Jeez, I don't know why Kerry is coming back. I don't know why he was ever back in the first place. I was curious what people thought about it though.

OK, since no one else has taken a shot at this and to demonstrate once again my willingness to post with only an opinion and no particular knowledge on the subject I will put my two cents in.

Kerry is doing well because:
1. He's physically the best looking candidate (kind of in sync with what Kittynh said about how he looked in the commercial).
2. Edwards is too young looking if he isn't too young.
3. Dean was riding high but has fallen back for various reasons.
4. Lieberman is too conservative for some and too Jewish for others.
5. Clark's anti-war views seem a bit contrived, given earlier quotes apparently in support of the war.
6. They haven't hit the south yet and Kerry may not do well there because either they like their own boy, Edwards, or because they think Kerry is too liberal.

On the Lieberman Jewish comment: I think in general there is little antisemitism in the US and a lot of people maybe the vast majority would be willing to vote for a Jewish guy. I think though at this particular time there is a widely held view (although perhaps still a minority view) that the US has sided too much with Israel of late and that the election of a Jewish president at this point in history might be sending the wrong message to the rest of the world.

Personally, I'm a guy who generally votes Republican that has decided to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate this time around. I'm still a little undecided who I'd like to see win. But I'm kind of leaning to Lieberman with Kerry being my second choice. I wouldn't vote for Kucinich or Shaprton, but I don't think I have too much to worry about there.

My bet is that Edwards ends up being the candidate for vice president.
 
Edwards is nice. I've been to two meeting he's had in Keene, NH. Very smart, very articulate. But comes across as young in person.

Lieberman is sad to say, just a little too much like the kindly college prof you would go to for help. Not quite presidential enough...I'm beginning to think in this age of media that while looks might not matter, if you're not good looking at least be able to look like Churchill and project strenght.
 
I am a Dem and will vote for one of these guys eventually. I don't really get a good feeling from any of them, however.

I agree that anti-semitism is less prevalent that racism against other groups but it is still there, plus Lieberman is not only Jewish, he is big-city Jewish, which doesn't go over well in the heartland.

I am from North Carolina but would not vote for Edwards. Too young, too inexperienced.

Clark, to my opinion is not trustworthy. He seems to say whatever he or his advisors think is the best thing to say at the time he says it.

Kerry has that whole East Coast aristocracy look to me. Like he summers on Nantucket, his kids are J. Crew models, etc. I don't like that at all.

I wish Al Gore would come back. He is a geek, a policy wonk, and pretty out of touch with a lot of people but he is very, very smart, works hard, and has tons of experience.

One other thing that bothers me every election year. Candidates say that "I am not a Washington insider", etc. I hate that. I personally want a Washington insider. I want someone who knows what the hell they are doing and has the experience to back it up. Put it this way, I wouldn't hire a bicycle mechanic to fix my car.

Anyway, gotta vote my party but not particularly happy about it this year:|
 
Honestly most of the dem candidates are really uninspiring. I'd love to see Bush go. He's a menace. But if someone like Kerry was the alternate choice, I'd say it doesn't matter much whether Bush is re-elected or not. Maybe Clark is alright... Hard to say.

- S
 
Well... Dean seems ok on the surface, but he's uninspiring in a different way. Can he beat Bush? Not only does he have to be good he also has to be electable and especially so in the so-called swing states where the election will mainly be fought. From that perspective is Dean a guy that can win this election? Personally I have serious doubts. If Dean won the primaries it would be a close election but mostly on party/partisan lines. I doubt Dean would be a guy to pull in and convince traditional Rep conservative voters. Clark seems more like a wildcard in that respect. Someone that migth do well with conservative southern voters etc...
 
Posted by davefoc

He's physically the best looking candidate (kind of in sync with what Kittynh said about how he looked in the commercial).
Click to expand...
Kerry's getting more personable on tv of late, but from what I've read, many of the women covering the Clark campaign agree with my feeling that Clark is by fair the most attractive.

That said, I'm one of many reconsidering Kerry over Clark...just what the polls show (how unoriginal!)...for the reasons of a record of public service combined with his "electability".

Kerry has experience with domestic and foreign policy, good environmental record, has "paid his dues" in government service (I didn't like Clark's whole "he left the military, but I stayed in" thing). And he's a war hero with lots of veterans (and in Iowa, the firefighters) actively supporting him.

I think it's true that Clark was getting momentum as an alternative to Dean (and as a Southerner). Now Dean's imploding...and Kerry has become a less wooden and boring communicator...the contrasting experience of Kerry and Clark have become more telling.

Plus, the excitement of Kerry being someone who (unlike Dean)--maybe--can beat Bush after all.

That sounds like a great commercial, Kittynh, and I haven't heard any other comments pointing it out. I hope we get to see it here in California in March.
 
Kerry supported Bush's war and tax cuts for the rich.

Dean didn't.

Kerry = bad.

Dean = better.
 
From:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=792

Dean is closing in on Kerry in New Hampshire polls:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollster John Zogby: "Dean had another good polling day, actually bouncing back to 25 points on Saturday, compared to Kerry's 28. Undecideds climbed slightly on Saturday, indicating a shift may be taking place.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This indicates that the CNN's effect was short-lived.

Dean pissed them off by proposing regulation of the telecommunications industry and CNN is bent on beating him down.

As I see it, Kerry is for wannabe appearance and goofy substance like Bush, and Dean is for solid substance.
 
Posted by Ion

As I see it, Kerry is for wannabe appearance and goofy substance like Bush, and Dean is for solid substance.
Click to expand...
Hi Ion,

Let's say that you're right, and Dean's the best candidate.

How/where do you see him winning against Bush in November? Can you really add up him carrying enough states to become President?
 
Ion said:
Kerry supported Bush's war and tax cuts for the rich.

Dean didn't.

Kerry = bad.

Dean = better.
Click to expand...

Yes. Dean's perfect. Please nominate him.
 
This:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/20/elec04.prez.dean.tran/index.html

is Dean's speech in Iowa, rallying his supporters after the firefighters in Iowa gave only a local victory to Kerry.

It's a pretty good speech.

Dean says where he will win in U.S. the Democrat nomination.

I believe him.

CNN is goofying about Dean, only because Dean wants to regulate them, and before that because Dean was confusing the Old and the New Testaments, and before that because Dean was reaching out to Southern rednecks, and so on...

Nevermind Bush spending $100 billion of taxpayer money to war in Iraq for nonexistent WMDs, neglecting the economy, giving contracts to Halliburton.

And Kerry supporting these like a slave.
 
Clancie said:

...
Let's say that you're right, and Dean's the best candidate.

How/where do you see him winning against Bush in November? Can you really add up him carrying enough states to become President?
Click to expand...
In the general election in November, I saw this graph of Dean and Bush one-on-one in U.S.:

CBS-BvsD.GIF

(SOURCE)

Dean only gets 70% of Democratic voters (with 20% going to Bush), and Bush wins nearly 2-to-1 over Dean with Independant voters.

I think that this should change though, once Clinton will support the Democrat nominee Dean, and once Dean gains momentum with his race for the Democrat nomination.

Sorry Clancie, this input is not state by state like you wanted, I am still learning about U.S., while the U.S. trends are in evolution in this campaign.
However, from an absolute point of view I think that Dean is the best U.S. brain, better than Kerry, because of his successful record when governing Vermont -including balanced budgets for 11 years and universal healthcare for the under 21- and because of his steadfast (not flip-flop) anti-war and anti-tax-cuts campaign.
 
The way I see it in a "nut" shell:

Dean: An angry s.o.b. that hates how Bush has allowed the good old boys network to line their pockets at the expense of joe and joanne average. He is my choice.
Braun: I know she is out, but don't you just love her! She seemed so to the point and gave me the impression that she really cares.
Kerry: My "winnable" choice... but is he dishing out unobtainable lip service?
Edwards: To inexperienced and he smiles too much... I don't know why this bothers me, it just does.
Leiberman: Coming from a "Jewthiest", it aint gunna happen. He should save his/the raised monies and drop out.
Clark: A Republican in Democrats clothing.
Sharpton and Cucinich (sp): ?!?!?!
Bush: Please slit my wrist! Penn and Teller, please use me in your bullet catching trick if this idiot gets reelected!
 
The Dean troops really are rallying. They are out in force and have a strong base of volunteers to call on (they are bringing in people from Vermont). In fact over night Dan signs have popped up everywhere, including a big one on the border between Vermont and NH....

so we'll see.

But, if Dean can't win in NH then it's going to be very hard for him elsewhere.
 
kittynh said:

This one ad totally blew Dean away. I was almost crying over this ad. Every time it is on, I watch it. It may only be marketing, but it goes to show how one well thought out ad can change the course of history.
Click to expand...

One thing Democrats seem to have trouble with is control of the message. Up until this point, Dean was the only candidate who was taking people's and the media's interest.

Kerry has shown lackluster leadership of his own campaign by not controlling his message like this. If an ad like this indicates he's starting to do so, then I'll feel a little better about voting for him.
 
I started with Kerry and switched to Clark. I like both candidates and respect their military backgrounds. I think Clark will do better in the Southern States but that remains to be seen. I like Edwards also and despite his youthful appearance (he's 50), I think he is running a great campaign. Dean has put together a great grass roots organization which has mobilized many new youthful converts to the political arena. Unfortunately, I don't think many of his followers have analyzed the Electorate map or they would reallize he doesn't have a chance in "Hades" of beating Bush in the South.

The main theme I see arising out of the Iowa and NH primaries is "Beat Bush". Perhaps there is some hope.
 
The one good thing about this race is that none of these guys really stands out. Which means that buy the time the voting comes here to Cal. there still might be a horse race. Whom ever the nominee turns out to be, he will not be electable if Cal. rejects him.
 
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