Who Will be First to Go Nuclear

[TragicMonkey]

Which is a totally reasonable posture, for a nuclear deterrent. I don't begrudge Putin that, though it's generally not considered necessary to actually say it. Everyone already understands the existential use of nukes.

I'm saying Putin is likely to go much further than that, and use nukes against Ukraine if it looks like they're winning, even if they don't represent an existential threat to Russia.

In fact I'm saying that's by far the most likely use of nukes scenario right now. I don't think anything else going on at the moment even comes close. Certainly not dudalb's India/Pakistan hallucination.

I'd agree with all of that except for one thing: I think Putin would have used nukes already if he could have. Either his nukes aren't operational or else he doesn't have control of them. Perhaps his grip on the country isn't as tight as he projects, and some of those around him gently hinted that if he tried to use a nuke he'd experience one of those window adventures himself. Even the autocratiest autocrat has to delegate power to get things done, and Putin can't run down to the missile silo and pull the lever himself.

 

[arthwollipot]

In fact I'm saying that's by far the most likely use of nukes scenario right now. I don't think anything else going on at the moment even comes close. Certainly not dudalb's India/Pakistan hallucination.

I think you're likely right, but there's one thing that gives me pause.

If Russia, Iran, or Israel use nukes will use them on very specific targets. It will be direct. Russia will nuke Ukraine, Iran and Israel will nuke each other, and that will likely be the extent of it. Pakistan and India would also nuke only each other, though I agree that it's pretty unlikely.

But if North Korea uses nukes, I predict that they would hurl them all over the place with gay abandon. Massive, indiscriminate armageddon wherever they can reach. Because only North Korea is that crazy. And that's why Kim worries me more than Putin.

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

I'd like to add"Rogue AI Bot" to the list.

(Well. not actually like.)