Which of these will use a nuclear weapon?

[crocodile deathroll]

Next to use a nuclear weapon if ever?

I am not speaking of the so called "dirty bomb attack" but an actual nuclear weapon that would be capable of destroying a city, period.
If such a nuclear weapon is ever used again in war which of these countries or organizations do you consider to be the first use it?

 

[Rob Lister]

Re: Next to use a nuclear weapon if ever?

I am not speaking of the so called "dirty bomb attack" but an actual nuclear weapon that would be capable of destroying a city, period.
If such a nuclear weapon is ever used again in war which of these countries or organizations do you consider to be the first use it?

I voted Fundamentalists/terrorists but only because that was the only choice that was broad enough.

I don't think that with the [very] next use of 'da bomb' it will be obvious (after the investigation) who was responsible.

The one (several) after that may be more than obvious.

 

[CapelDodger]

It's a lottery, but the smart money has to be on Israel as the weirdest of them all.

 

[geni]

France or USA. No one is going to be stupid enough to use nukes big enough to blow apart a city. Tactical nukes though are a diferent kettle of fish.

 

[CapelDodger]

Re: Re: Next to use a nuclear weapon if ever?

I voted Fundamentalists/terrorists but only because that was the only choice that was broad enough.

I don't think that with the [very] next use of 'da bomb' it will be obvious (after the investigation) who was responsible.

The one (several) after that may be more than obvious.

Of course it would be obvious who set it off, and who was involved. There'd be far too many people in the chain, and too many interests, for it to remain secret. If it was simple to buy a nuclear weapon after the collapse of the USSR, why hasn't it happened yet? Pakistan has the Bomb, and hasn't handed it over to free-agents. They've got the Bomb so that they can declare "Hey, we've got the Bomb", not so that everybody gets it. If Iran gets the bomb, it's not so that they can hand one over to some Lebanese faction and put their future in their hands.

If it happens, it'll be traceable. Which is why it probably won't be allowed to happen.

 

[CapelDodger]

France or USA.

The Brits won't give it up while French still have it. That's certain. But a European deterrent created from both is an intriguing idea. It would have to be post-NATO, of course. And not necessarily good news for Turks.

If the French nuke Cote d'Ivoire, I'll be very surprised, but I wonder what the US response would be? Apart from made up very quickly. The beauty of the poll is that the next use of nuclear weapons will probably result from something so esoteric nobody's even thinking about it. It will probably have nothing to do with religion (Israel is a secular democracy). And future generations will marvel at our blindness.

 

[geni]

The Brits won't give it up while French still have it. That's certain. But a European deterrent created from both is an intriguing idea. It would have to be post-NATO, of course. And not necessarily good news for Turks.

If the French nuke Cote d'Ivoire, I'll be very surprised, but I wonder what the US response would be? Apart from made up very quickly. The beauty of the poll is that the next use of nuclear weapons will probably result from something so esoteric nobody's even thinking about it. It will probably have nothing to do with religion (Israel is a secular democracy). And future generations will marvel at our blindness.

Europes militry has wound down a lot since the cold war. They can still handle third world forces and limited conflicts but a battle against a large second rate force would be a problem. I chose france because they are the country with a lot of tactical/battlefield nukes.

 

[Ed]

Europes militry has wound down a lot since the cold war. They can still handle third world forces and limited conflicts but a battle against a large second rate force would be a problem. I chose france because they are the country with a lot of tactical/battlefield nukes.

and....they already nuked Greenpeace... liberal, socialist, commie, CBSist bastards.

 

[Mycroft]

Re: Re: Re: Next to use a nuclear weapon if ever?

If it happens, it'll be traceable. Which is why it probably won't be allowed to happen.

My understanding is that bomb residue can be tested by a metalurgist to determine where it was manufactured in exactly the same way a metalurgist can determine where steel was smelted.

Which is just trivia.

My vote is equally on Iran and N. Korea, though I like your so esoteric nobody's even thinking about it hypothesis.

 

[evildave]

This needed the multiple selection poll, as several are likely to launch.

The U.S. is still the only one on the list that already has used them. Twice.

 

[crocodile deathroll]

This needed the multiple selection poll, as several are likely to launch.

The U.S. is still the only one on the list that already has used them. Twice.

Do you mean I should of given people the option of clicking on both the number 1 and number 10 box?

CDR

 

[evildave]

If they wanna.

One will use a nuke, and then another, pretty soon everybody wants to get in on the act.

 

[richardm]

I voted Israel for a couple of reasons: Firstly, they would seem to be one of the most threatened of the countries on the list, and secondly because the countries they'd be likely to use it on don't have the bomb - so no deterrent effect, which is a very important consideration, perhaps the most important.

I remember during the first Gulf war there was a good bit of anxiety about Israel's reaction if Saddam sent over some chem/bio warhead on a Scud, so perhaps that's influenced my choice.

All that's assuming aggression from the surrounding countryside first, of course. I don't think the Israeli Government would wake up one morning and say "Let's nuke Damascus".

 

[zenith-nadir]

I think North Korea or Iran would use the bomb before Israel does. Why? Because only one goofy guy controls the bomb in North Korea and only a handful of religious mullahs will control Iran's inevitable bomb. They don't have to answer to anyone.

Israel's bomb is a deterent not an offensive weapon and the Arab countries trying to destroy Israel know that. That is one of the reasons Iran wants the bomb so badly, to use it.

 

[a_unique_person]

I think North Korea or Iran would use the bomb before Israel does. Why? Because only one goofy guy controls the bomb in North Korea and only a handful of religious mullahs will control Iran's inevitable bomb. They don't have to answer to anyone.

Israel's bomb is a deterent not an offensive weapon and the Arab countries trying to destroy Israel know that. That is one of the reasons Iran wants the bomb so badly, to use it.

Only one problem with that theory, Iranians aren't Arabs.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Only one problem with that theory, Iranians aren't Arabs.

Yes a_u_p most Iranians are Persians. Thanks for playing, did you learn that off the internet?. Would you have felt better if I had said Muslims? No. Then you would admonish me for being racist against muslims.

Either way, Iran's leaders want the bomb and are only one fatwa away from using it.

 

[richardm]

I think North Korea or Iran would use the bomb before Israel does. Why? Because only one goofy guy controls the bomb in North Korea and only a handful of religious mullahs will control Iran's inevitable bomb. They don't have to answer to anyone.

Israel's bomb is a deterent not an offensive weapon and the Arab countries trying to destroy Israel know that. That is one of the reasons Iran wants the bomb so badly, to use it.

Thing is that North Korea or Iran could only use their bombs on countries that could respond in kind. So unless they really did lose their minds, they'd hesitate before using it. Whereas if pressed militarily Israel could use their option without fear of a matching response.

Iran only want the bomb to avoid any Iraq-style bashings, IMO - they'd be committing suicide if they ever actually used it. At the moment I don't think the leadership of Iran is mad enough. That could change, of course, in which case I'll happily promote them to "Most Likely".

 

[a_unique_person]

Yes a_u_p most Iranians are Persians. Thanks for playing, did you learn that off the internet?. Would you have felt better if I had said Muslims? No. Then you would admonish me for being racist against muslims.

Either way, Iran's leaders want the bomb and are only one fatwa away from using it.

You left out this.

 

[zenith-nadir]

Thing is that North Korea or Iran could only use their bombs on countries that could respond in kind. So unless they really did lose their minds, they'd hesitate before using it.

There is no "they" in North Korea. There is only Kim Chong-il. And unfortunately his mind is suspect.

Whereas if pressed militarily Israel could use their option without fear of a matching response..

Israel has been pressed militarily for decades and has never paraded the "bomb" down main street. They don't even officially admit it exsists. But it does as a deterent, not as an offensive weapon.

Iran only want the bomb to avoid any Iraq-style bashings, IMO - they'd be committing suicide if they ever actually used it. At the moment I don't think the leadership of Iran is mad enough. That could change, of course, in which case I'll happily promote them to "Most Likely"...

The Islamic government in Iran no longer has broad popular support. Iran's lawmakers chanted "death to America" in their legislature just a few short weeks ago, Iran's leaders are harsh Islamic clerics who demand people adhere to the regime's strict islamist ideology.

Obviously I have a bias towards Israel, but I feel that the probability a few islamist clerics and a goofy North Korean dictator might use "the bomb" irresponsibly before Israel does is high.

 

[BPSCG]

I don't know who'll use it next. But if it's used against the U.S., I know who'll use the following three or four.