Wheat Crisis... What?

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Neoclinus blanchardi
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Bakers Press Congress To Address Wheat Crisis

"Bakers from across the country came together to sen a loud and clear message to Congress and the Bush Administration that immediate action needs to be take to alleviate the commodity crisis," said Robb MacKie, President & CEO of the American Bakers Associate. "The wheat supply is at historically low levels, commodity prices are at an all time high, the dollar is down and the consumer is just starting to feel the impact. ABA and its members have been warning government officials about the pending crisis for the past year. Any further delay could have extremely serious consequences," said Mackie.

Why are you going to the government for a solution?

It's bit like praying to God for rain rather than building a reservoir system.

Bakers and other wheat users are also very concerned over the historically low stocks. "ABA is asking USDA to review export policies in light of historically low domestic wheat stocks," said MacKie, referring to the less tan 25 days of wheat stock. "While we are not calling for an export moratorium, USDA has a responsibility to review its policies in light of the new commodity paradigm."

Okay, where did this 25 days number come from?

A quick pop into Domestic Supply And Disappearance Table 11 shows nothing unusual. The flux falls within a factor of two on each side.

Do I add the 25 days to March 12?

In which case, on the seventh of April no wheat will remain, but that doesn't make an sense. If examine the flux on usage in the table then you at worst get a ninety day supply after the May/June boundary.

Where does this number come from? :boggled:
 
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Wheat, rice, corn, soy: all the grains have been in short supply.

I was just reading this article and thinking about starting a thread, but better to respond here.

One thing congress could do is rethink the part of the energy bill that mandates gasoline companies to buy lots of corn-based ethanol. This drives up the price of all grains, not just corn, because the limited resource is arable land, which could be used to grow corn, wheat, or soy. (I'm not sure if the rice thing in Asia is related, but it probably is just because food is food, and calories are calories.)

ETA: I think the 25 days figure is in case of no new production, so you shouln't be too alarmed.
 
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That reports seem to be stressing the price is the issue e.g.:

“We are seeing a new face of hunger – people who suddenly can no longer afford the food they see on store shelves. Prices have soared beyond their reach,” said Sisulu.

So that to me seems more like an issue of price rather than neccessarily a shortage;, now of course I know that rising prices can often be linked to a decrease in supply but that's not always the case. And I know the futures' markets play a big part in these types of prices so I was wondering if "investment" money has been moving from the banks given the crisis over in that sector and perhaps the rising prices have as much to do with increased speculation as it does to any significant shortage of the crops?

(It's something I've been hearing and reading snippets about for a little while just never bothered to do any research myself so I just don't know.)
 
I think the issue is that whilst the west can still afford the food, prices having increased due to shortages, the undeveloped world is screwed. IIRC.
 
They can afford it so readily that they're converting wheat into fuel so that they can burn it. It makes a change from lighting cigars with $100 bills.
 
I think they are saying the market isn't working, the government should come up with a solution.
It's been tried. Results were... unsatisfactory.

Back in 1989, when the Soviet Union was breaking up, on an episode of This Week With David Brinkley (a Sunday morning politics talk show, for you non-Americans), Brinkley commented that it looked like The Ukraine (now simply "Ukraine") was going to secede from the USSR.

Sam Donaldson reacted with the cliche that everyone who grew up in the 1960's learned in geography class about The Ukraine. "Well, if The Ukraine secedes, that would be catastrophic for the Soviet Union; The Ukraine is the breadbasket of the Soviet Union."

George Will won the week's pith award with his rejoinder: "No, Kansas is the breadbasket of the Soviet Union."
 
Why are you going to the government for a solution?
Because they're the idiots that started it with their stupid, mindless, idiotic ethanol mandates. So now millions of acres of cropland are growing corn for ethanol instead of growing food. The predictable consequence is food prices are going through the roof and somehow we're still importing more oil than ever.
 
Because they're the idiots that started it with their stupid, mindless, idiotic ethanol mandates. So now millions of acres of cropland are growing corn for ethanol instead of growing food. The predictable consequence is food prices are going through the roof and somehow we're still importing more oil than ever.

Is there any reason to believe that ethanol mandates might be inefficient in the short run, but lead to real alternative fuels in 5 or 10 years? If that was the case, some short-term pain could be justified if there is real long-term gain. I'm just not convinced this is the case. An alternative would be to just fund the research directly and once such fuels become economically viable the market would begin to adopt them even without mandates. No?
 
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Is there any reason to believe that ethanol mandates might be inefficient in the short run, but lead to real alternative fuels in 5 or 10 years?
IMHO, ethanol mandates (and the subsidies paid for them) use up resources that could be used to develop alternative energy resources. Once billions is spent building up the infrastructure necessary to manufacture ethanol it will have enough inertia to maintain itself no matter how obvious it becomes that making ethanol from corn is a monumentally stupid idea.

An alternative would be to just fund the research directly and once such fuels become economically viable the market would begin to adopt them even without mandates. No?
That doesn't get votes right now in farm states though, does it? But it's true - if ethanol was really a good idea and economically feasible it wouldn't need government mandates and subsidies.
 
Paul Krugman has a blog post on this. But he apparantly doesn't know why prices are so high. But he does rule out speculation as the culprit:
What I don’t quite understand is why food prices have spiked so dramatically. Demand has been rising for a number of years; bio-fuels is a big thing, but how much bigger is it this year than a year or two ago? It can’t be speculation: that raises prices by inducing stockpiling, and stocks of wheat and rice are at or near record lows.
Important stuff. We need to figure this out.

I think it's a combination of biofuels and expensive oil.
 
I think it's a combination of biofuels and expensive oil.
And if biofuel production isn't as efficient as the best-case scenario (which is 25% IIRC) and in fact uses more energy than it produces (as has been calculated in worst-case scenarios) then one actually feeds the other.

I do find it suspicious that there is a lack of real-world data relating to ethanol production efficiency from corn.

Illinois, one of the most populous states, mandates 10% ethanol in the gasdoline. Many other states have the same requirement, and the new Federal energy bill mandates even more ethanol. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that ethanol is removing a large percentage of prime cropland from food production. And the price rise feeds on itself - more ethanol production raises the cost of food grains, which then requires more government subsidies for ethanol production (because farmers need an incentive to grow corn for ethanol rather than for food/feed), which raises further the price of food grains, which requires more ethanol subsidies... and so on and so on.
 
Perhaps increased demand for animal products like meat and milk from developing nations in Asia plays a part too. Those animals need food.

And of course higher energy prices raise food costs.
 
Paul Krugman has now written an actual column on this.

Where the effects of bad policy are clearest, however, is in the rise of demon ethanol and other biofuels.

The subsidized conversion of crops into fuel was supposed to promote energy independence and help limit global warming. But this promise was, as Time magazine bluntly put it, a “scam.”

This is especially true of corn ethanol: even on optimistic estimates, producing a gallon of ethanol from corn uses most of the energy the gallon contains. But it turns out that even seemingly “good” biofuel policies, like Brazil’s use of ethanol from sugar cane, accelerate the pace of climate change by promoting deforestation.

And meanwhile, land used to grow biofuel feedstock is land not available to grow food, so subsidies to biofuels are a major factor in the food crisis. You might put it this way: people are starving in Africa so that American politicians can court votes in farm states.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering: all the remaining presidential contenders are terrible on this issue.

One more thing: one reason the food crisis has gotten so severe, so fast, is that major players in the grain market grew complacent.

Governments and private grain dealers used to hold large inventories in normal times, just in case a bad harvest created a sudden shortage. Over the years, however, these precautionary inventories were allowed to shrink, mainly because everyone came to believe that countries suffering crop failures could always import the food they needed.

This left the world food balance highly vulnerable to a crisis affecting many countries at once — in much the same way that the marketing of complex financial securities, which was supposed to diversify away risk, left world financial markets highly vulnerable to a systemwide shock.

What should be done? The most immediate need is more aid to people in distress: the U.N.’s World Food Program put out a desperate appeal for more funds.

We also need a pushback against biofuels, which turn out to have been a terrible mistake.
 
Paul Krugman said:
The most immediate need is more aid to people in distress: the U.N.’s World Food Program put out a desperate appeal for more funds.
Gee, you'd think after five thousand years of growing the stuff, pretty much everyone on earth would know how to do it by now and wouldn't need the U.N. to go begging for it.
 

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