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What's going to happen when Putin dies?

ahhell

Penultimate Amazing
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I guess he's only 72 so he might live for another 20 or 30 years and be relatively cognitively sound for that but, seems unlikely right?

I assume there will be a bunch of his lackies vying for power.
Will it be violent if so, just assassinations or full on civil war? Or will there be a
Stalin like character that rises from the weeds somewhat inexplicably and just pushes out his rivals then kills them? Will Putin actually establish a transition of some sort that it doesn't all go tits up?

Then, what happens with Ukraine?
 
I guess it depends on how exactly he dies. It could be a heart attack. It could be Novichok in his underpants. It could be "accidentally" falling from a window. Or it could be sudden vaporization from a NATO nuke. Anything goes with this guy, what a card! LOL.

I'm willing to bet he probably won't be strangled by a clown while in a hot tub full of melted butter. That's the sort of specific death that only happens to one in a thousand.
 
I naively assume that in these kinds of foreseeable scenarios, the main stakeholders will have anticipated the contingencies, laid plans for their ascendancy, and will be prepared for the transfer of power they desire.

But in practice it rarely seems to work out that way. I suspect that in reality it does kind of work out that way, but plans don't survive enemy contact, and most of the details of what really happened never come out.

So I expect it will look like a clownshow of incompetent nincompoops who had no idea Putin was gonna die some day soon. He'll probably be replaced by a junta, backed by the same Oligarchs who backed him, none of them powerful enough to wrest control from the others. This will persist for a few years, until one of them manages to consolidate power in his own hands.

As for Ukraine... I expect that a loss of forceful leadership at the top will result in a great stalling out and withdrawal from the occupied territories. Russian commanders in the field will realize that their chain of command (such as it was) is entirely broken, that their logistics are even more stuffed up than usual, and that there is no longer any semblance of a strategic goal. There will be a lot of units that just quietly walk away from the front lines. Assuming Ukraine still has battle-ready formations in the field, a massive collapse of the Russian army will soon follow. Ukraine will ultimately end up with everything that's theirs, plus a decent chunk of Kursk and Belgorod oblasts to play with.
 
theprestige said:
I naively assume that in these kinds of foreseeable scenarios, the main stakeholders will have anticipated the contingencies, laid plans for their ascendancy, and will be prepared for the transfer of power they desire.
Click to expand...

I think this is probably the case. However, I think each stakeholder will have different plans and different desires on how, and, importantly, to whom, the power will be transferred.
 
I am certain that Putin made sure that there was NO clear line of succession, no one with the unquestioning authority to take over should he be incapacitated, temporary or otherwise.
Such a post would be a single point of failure in his power.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
I am certain that Putin made sure that there was NO clear line of succession, no one with the unquestioning authority to take over should he be incapacitated, temporary or otherwise.
Such a post would be a single point of failure in his power.
Click to expand...

Fine for him but terrible for everyone left after he goes. That's basically the scenario I imagine.
 
There will be a polka named after him - the Putin Polka - based on his happy dance as he swings, thanks to the revenge of Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, who left a booby trap in the borscht he made him as a surprise, still in the freezer ready for when Putin gets the midnight munchies at his Tver villa. We know it's Prigozhin's revenge because the initials YVP have been swirled on top in smetana. An American zany humorist will write the obituary.
 
theprestige said:
So I expect it will look like a clownshow of incompetent nincompoops who had no idea Putin was gonna die some day soon. He'll probably be replaced by a junta, backed by the same Oligarchs who backed him, none of them powerful enough to wrest control from the others. This will persist for a few years, until one of them manages to consolidate power in his own hands.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think I've seen that movie.
 
ahhell said:
I guess he's only 72 so he might live for another 20 or 30 years and be relatively cognitively sound for that but, seems unlikely right?
Click to expand...

Only the good die young. He strikes me as the sort who will live well into his 90's, like Mugabe or Murdoch.
 
dudalb said:
Time of Troubles 3.0.
Complets with a false Dmitri equivilent.
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What you do is get the False Dmitri and the Real Dmitri and when you get to ask your one question you ask one of them which one the other one would point to as being the Real Dmitri. If you've asked the False Dmitri he'll point to himself, if you've asked the Real Dmitri he'd point to to the False Dmitri, so you know the one not pointed at is the Real Dmitri. Russia is easy when you work out the trick!
 
If he croaks in the next few years I think Medvedev has the inside running to be boss, but anything is possible as it's going to depend on who has the most pals in the army.

Yeltsin certainly taught them that lesson - you're nothing without the military.
 
TragicMonkey said:
What you do is get the False Dmitri and the Real Dmitri and when you get to ask your one question you ask one of them which one the other one would point to as being the Real Dmitri. If you've asked the False Dmitri he'll point to himself, if you've asked the Real Dmitri he'd point to to the False Dmitri, so you know the one not pointed at is the Real Dmitri. Russia is easy when you work out the trick!
Click to expand...

ANd I am sure a number of Putin underlings see themselves as Boris Gudonov.
 
The Atheist said:
If he croaks in the next few years I think Medvedev has the inside running to be boss, but anything is possible as it's going to depend on who has the most pals in the army.

Yeltsin certainly taught them that lesson - you're nothing without the military.
Click to expand...

Medvedev the Putin sockpuppet, who's clearly looking at the end of his usefulness in the bottom of a bottle? Yeah, no. It's almost certainly going to be someone we've never heard of, who will suddenly become the subject of a thousand "the most important Russian you've never heard of" headlines in the not-your-friend media.
 
dudalb said:
ANd I am sure a number of Putin underlings see themselves as Boris Gudonov.
Click to expand...

And I'm sure that Putin has left instructions so shortly after his death a number of his underlings are going to fall out of windows, drink some bad vodka, or discover nerve agents in their shampoo. I don't see him appointing a successor but I can see him removing all but one of the potentials. It works out to the same thing, and would give that one a much smoother transition.
 
Maybe Putin, when asked who will take over, will say "To the strongest" a la Alexander the Great.
There will be one hell of a classic "War of the Diadochi" when Putin kicks the bucket.
 
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