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What happens when somebody wins?

m_larue

New Blood
M
Joined
May 16, 2006
Messages
3
Given how long the challenge has been unsatisfied, and how many unqualified people continue to apply for it, I don't expect that anyone will take home that million any time soon.

But I've been wondering...

What will happen if somebody actually performs a bona fide "psychic" act under testable, repeatable conditions, and earns that million? Presumably the foundation will pay up. But: What happens next? What impact will that proof have on the rest of the world?

I wonder not only out of curiosity, but also because I have to address this problem in a novel-in-progress and would find the information, however speculative, very useful.

Tx.
 
I would imagine what happens next is...

1. The JREF documents its findings and publishes them in a scholarly journal. There will be a wealth of detail made available for scientific scrutiny.

2. Many, many honest researchers will work hard to repeat the experiment. The original winner of the Challenge will, naturally, be invited to participate, and I sincerely hope he or she is willing to do so.

3. Many, many other honest researchers will propose alternate theories about how the event could have been faked or misinterpreted. These will be tested against the JREF trial evidence, other experiments will be set up, etc.

4. Assuming the winner is the real deal, this will be confirmed and replicated, and eventually we will all accept it as fact. Researchers will then work on understanding the process piece by piece.

...

n. The formerly paranormal event is reduced to practice, leading to a whole new field of science and technology. Mankind benefits.

I see the JREF challenge as ultimately beneficial to the paranormal, much as a stern teacher improves the student.
 
I'm curious about the term 'bona fide "psychic" act ' .

I'm also curious about the juxtaposition of two posts by newish members which seem, taken together, to support the view that the prize ultimately will be won.
 
Soapy Sam said:
I'm also curious about the juxtaposition of two posts by newish members which seem, taken together, to support the view that the prize ultimately will be won.
Click to expand...
Hmm... Evidence? (you'd be wrong, btw)

Not to worry, Soaps, I've been around far too many farsical spirit-channelers, UFO-enthusiasts, speakers-to-the-dead, and even spoon benders to be easily impressed. And my training in laboratory science and statistics leaves me to suspect if any of it was real, there'd be some shred of proof by now.

But I also reject the commonly-voiced complaint by the true believers that the Challenge is simply a mean-spirited attempt to discredit unpopular beliefs. I see it as a facet of scientific inquiry, and science knows no fear.

So what would your answer be?
 
To me it is a hypothetical question. Any attempt to answer it will be pure speculation.

Your guess will be as good as anyone else's about what will happen. I do not see any evidence that the prize could be won.

Maybe except like maybe like this:-
James Randi retires.
His replacement is not so good.
Allows a very good cheat to win.
 
rjh01 said:
To me it is a hypothetical question. Any attempt to answer it will be pure speculation.

Your guess will be as good as anyone else's about what will happen. I do not see any evidence that the prize could be won.

Maybe except like maybe like this:-
James Randi retires.
His replacement is not so good.
Allows a very good cheat to win.
Click to expand...
There are thoudsands of able replacements. He doesn't have any particularly unique properties, you know.
 
R.Mackey wrote:
"Not to worry, Soaps, I've been around far too many farsical spirit-channelers, UFO-enthusiasts, speakers-to-the-dead, and even spoon benders to be easily impressed. And my training in laboratory science and statistics leaves me to suspect if any of it was real, there'd be some shred of proof by now."

Although a reasonable supposition, it is flawed in that it supposes that we know so much about everything now that there's still something that could escape us.

I am biased by Michael Schermer's comment: "There is no such thing as the paranormal and the supernatural; there is only the normal and the natural and mysteries we have yet to explain."
 
They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.
 
T'ai Chi said:
They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.
Click to expand...
You're clearly right.

Scientist have no curiosity about the world around them, and would not be interested in investigating someone who managed to convince James Randi that he might have supernatural powers. They would much rather remain locked away in there ivory towers than take a chance on investigating something which could lead to the discovery of a whole new field.
 
T'ai Chi said:
They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.
Click to expand...
Let me fill in the etc. for you:

-But hey! This guy got by James rule8ing Randi!
-This means that it is extremely unlikely that a trick was used.
(I assume that Randi didn't say "OK, you got me" at the press conference.)
-So, unlike all the other woo BS in the world this might actually have something to it.
-Let's try to figure out what that something is and get rich/famous/respected/published/whateverscientistswantinlife.
 
Ririon said:
Let me fill in the etc. for you:

-But hey! This guy got by James rule8ing Randi!
-This means that it is extremely unlikely that a trick was used.
(I assume that Randi didn't say "OK, you got me" at the press conference.)
-So, unlike all the other woo BS in the world this might actually have something to it.
-Let's try to figure out what that something is and get rich/famous/respected/published/whateverscientistswantinlife.
Click to expand...

Well, they have to get by the preliminary, first, which is well-recorded, allowing the experts to pour over it until they come up with theories as to how the trick is done. Then they can either disprove it right then, or wait for the next test. But it's never gotten this far, since mere "close watching" prevents fraud, and well-designed experiments prevent placebo/subconscious effect/deliberate fraud (e.g. dowsing).
 
R.Mackey said:
I would imagine what happens next is...

1. The JREF documents its findings and publishes them in a scholarly journal. There will be a wealth of detail made available for scientific scrutiny.

2. Many, many honest researchers will work hard to repeat the experiment. The original winner of the Challenge will, naturally, be invited to participate, and I sincerely hope he or she is willing to do so.

3. Many, many other honest researchers will propose alternate theories about how the event could have been faked or misinterpreted. These will be tested against the JREF trial evidence, other experiments will be set up, etc.

4. Assuming the winner is the real deal, this will be confirmed and replicated, and eventually we will all accept it as fact. Researchers will then work on understanding the process piece by piece.

...

n. The formerly paranormal event is reduced to practice, leading to a whole new field of science and technology. Mankind benefits.

I see the JREF challenge as ultimately beneficial to the paranormal, much as a stern teacher improves the student.
Click to expand...



YUCK sounds more like they put you under a micriscope and make sure your not a threat to all the dirty little secrets in the world, in the proses of trying to figure out a way to prove you a fake.

Million aint enough
 
I'd imagine that there'd be an absolute rush of scientists to get the person to help them scientifically show how their ability works. And a host of fakes coming around to say, "hey, we can do it too!"
 
JollyRoger said:
YUCK sounds more like they put you under a micriscope and make sure your not a threat to all the dirty little secrets in the world, in the proses of trying to figure out a way to prove you a fake.

Million aint enough
Click to expand...

"all the dirty little secrets"...where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right here: http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?postid=1616060#post1616060

Just don't apply then.



"Million aint enough"? We have another thread in this forum dealing with this issue. It's going very well for the person who brought it up.
Perhaps you want to join the discussion over there and enlighten us to your way of thinking why "Million aint enough".

Of course, you can also keep bringing the issue up time and again without giving any sufficient explanation. Quite common around here.
 
OK I will confess I am just Jealous because I know I can not win. No superpowers

Psychologically speaking its called Paranoia, or overly suspicious.

Instead of having a wave of neurotransmitters going from one neuron to the next I get stuck with a title-wave of them. I have a bad habit of over analyzing stuff.
 
Last edited:
m_larue said:
Given how long the challenge has been unsatisfied, and how many unqualified people continue to apply for it, I don't expect that anyone will take home that million any time soon.

But I've been wondering...

What will happen if somebody actually performs a bona fide "psychic" act under testable, repeatable conditions, and earns that million? Presumably the foundation will pay up. But: What happens next? What impact will that proof have on the rest of the world?

I wonder not only out of curiosity, but also because I have to address this problem in a novel-in-progress and would find the information, however speculative, very useful.

Tx.
Click to expand...

I suggest you browse this Forum, m_larue. You will see it has speculative threads coming out the wazoo. At certain intervals, the same themes/questions/discussions seem to come up again. And again. And...again.

If you suffer a writer's block - it'll go away. Trust me. ;)

Please do not start speculative threads. It's waste of bandwidth at worst and mental masturbation at best. The Challenge Forum features beaucoup threads where you can participate in a productive discussion. We appreciate your input.

Browse the Forum, m_larue. It'll serve your speculatory needs. I predict you will also have a laugh or two.
Upping the ante: I guarantee it.
 
R.Mackey said:
I would imagine what happens next is...
Click to expand...
You left out the media circus.

5. The media will make hay out of it, condeming scientists for their close-mindedness and congratulating the masses on having been right all along. Even while they misrepresent the facts of the case.

6. The religions will either condemn it as the work of the devil, or embrace it as the work of god. In both cases they will (regardless of what feat is actually achieved or what it means) take the event as proof that their narrow sectarian dogmas are God's Inspired Literal Word.
 
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