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Tucker Macgregor thing making the rounds - debunking resources?

pipelineaudio

Philosopher
pipelineaudio
Joined
Feb 23, 2006
Messages
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There's a video making the rounds from Tucker Carlson and some colonel, as far as i can tell, everything tucker claims is absolute garbage lies, but its having a real effect among on the local sanity and recovery for the Maui disaster. A lot of the bigger local influencers are using it to keep people from accepting any government resources, including temporary housing. I'd love some debunking resources against this.

While hawaii always and only votes democrat, figures like tucker carlson and trump really appeal to the divine command theory framework of local culture and are taken quite seriously, especially to back up conspiracy theories against acceting help from FEMA and Red Cross.

I know the youtube channel business basics links to live stuff in ukraine to debunk a lot of these combat claims, but there's so much more garbage tucker is spewing here

This crap is turning people verbally abusive to red cross volunteers here and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up in some violence as well

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1693761723230990509?s=20
 
If it's the MacGregor I think he is, he's a fully tenured Putain-bot. The man has been shouting "Ukraine is going to fall apart any minute now" for the last 18 months. There isn't a far-right cause he doesn't love and he has a deep resentment to his country because he never made general, according to him the Army just didn't understand his genius. My guess he was another blowhard in the line of the Jet Fighter Mafia.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
If it's the MacGregor I think he is, he's a fully tenured Putain-bot. The man has been shouting "Ukraine is going to fall apart any minute now" for the last 18 months. There isn't a far-right cause he doesn't love and he has a deep resentment to his country because he never made general, according to him the Army just didn't understand his genius. My guess he was another blowhard in the line of the Jet Fighter Mafia.
Click to expand...
Correct. He talks like had was an embedded Kremlin spy. No wonder Tucker likes him.
 
PERFECT!!!!! that's it, its a dream, its like Mark Roberts (Gravy) debunking 911 truthers
 
pipelineaudio said:
There's a video making the rounds from Tucker Carlson and some colonel, as far as i can tell, everything tucker claims is absolute garbage lies, but its having a real effect among on the local sanity and recovery for the Maui disaster. A lot of the bigger local influencers are using it to keep people from accepting any government resources, including temporary housing. I'd love some debunking resources against this.

While hawaii always and only votes democrat, figures like tucker carlson and trump really appeal to the divine command theory framework of local culture and are taken quite seriously, especially to back up conspiracy theories against acceting help from FEMA and Red Cross.

I know the youtube channel business basics links to live stuff in ukraine to debunk a lot of these combat claims, but there's so much more garbage tucker is spewing here

This crap is turning people verbally abusive to red cross volunteers here and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up in some violence as well

https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1693761723230990509?s=20
Click to expand...


Are you saying that just this video, which contains mainly general lies about the Russo-Ukrainian war and only briefly raises the Maui vs Ukraine canard near the end is causing this effect? Surely there must be more going on here.
 
SpitfireIX said:
Are you saying that just this video, which contains mainly general lies about the Russo-Ukrainian war and only briefly raises the Maui vs Ukraine canard near the end is causing this effect? Surely there must be more going on here.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I doubt anyone here made it to the maui vs ukraine part, much earlier on in the video are the parts that get the whackaloons going against FEMA and red cross

There has been an extremely strong anti ukraine sentiment here since the first days of aid to ukraine. There are quite a lot of things internationally that Hawaii is forced to pay for, that were ostensibly things that the USA was supposed to pay for, Hawaii being only 1/50th of that, for instance the Micronesians issues. Its understandable that people can see the amount of money going to that war is many times the amount Hawaii has been asking for to help pay for the checks the USA wrote that Hawaii is expected to cash and are upset by it.

And that's just the left side...On the other side, the blatantly pro russia propaganda and conspiracies from the right are just more fuel to the outrage

Add that this MacGregor guy seems to be a Dominionist, pushing jesus stuff, it gives him a lot of bipartisan influence and authority here in the Left hook of the Bible Belt
 
SpitfireIX said:
Are you saying that just this video, which contains mainly general lies about the Russo-Ukrainian war and only briefly raises the Maui vs Ukraine canard near the end is causing this effect? Surely there must be more going on here.
Click to expand...

At the end of the interview Macgregor openly complains that money is going to Ukraine while Maui residents only get $700 ( a lie on multiple levels). So this is spreading.
 
pipelineaudio said:
PERFECT!!!!! that's it, its a dream, its like Mark Roberts (Gravy) debunking 911 truthers
Click to expand...


The video overall actually isn't that good, IMO. I don't subscribe to McBeth's channel, but because I subscribe to channels such as Perun, Combat Veteran Reacts, Jake Broe, and Denys Davidov, McBeth's videos sometimes appear in my suggestions, and I occasionally watch them, which is how I came to watch this one.

For the benefit of those who don't read the Ukraine war thread, I won't go too deep in the weeds, but there are problems with several parts of McBeth's analysis. For example, at about the 06:34 mark he deals with Macgregor's absurd claim that "Ukrainians we think now have lost 400,000 killed." After correctly observing that if this were true, the Russians would be in Kyiv by now, and quoting a reliable estimate of around 17,500 Ukrainian KIA, he then rates the claim as "highly improbable," that is, 5-20% likely, supposedly using intelligence-analysis criteria.

He then goes on to rate Macgregor's claim that the Russians have 300,000 combat troops in reserve, supposedly in anticipation of American intervention in Ukraine, as "improbable" (20-45% likely), even after explaining that if this were true a) we'd know about it, and b) it doesn't square with Russia's (lack of) troop-rotation policies. (As an aside, last spring, Macgregor was claiming that the Russians had 750,000 troops in reserve, and that they were going to roll over Ukraine as soon as the ground was dry. :rolleyes:)

That said, there are some positive things about the video; for example, McBeth illustrates several logical fallacies employed by Carlson and Macgregor, which could prove useful when presenting to those unfamiliar with critical thinking. I also think that he's onto something when he opines that part of Macgregor's problem is that he doesn't understand how much military technology has changed since he left the Army. But I think McBeth could have done a better job in a lot of places.
 
MacGregor is a lot like Giuliania someone who has fallen from the heights;: At one point he was considered one of the US Army's most promising young officers, but then he went bonkers.
In addition to his butt kissing of Putin, he has used several racial slurs, has advocated Making the US Mexican Bprder a free fire zone to stop illegals, and generally has made himself a embarassment.
 
SpitfireIX said:
... but there are problems with several parts of McBeth's analysis. For example, at about the 06:34 mark he deals with Macgregor's absurd claim that "Ukrainians we think now have lost 400,000 killed." After correctly observing that if this were true, the Russians would be in Kyiv by now, and quoting a reliable estimate of around 17,500 Ukrainian KIA, he then rates the claim as "highly improbable," that is, 5-20% likely, supposedly using intelligence-analysis criteria.
...
Click to expand...

How did you determine that the "17,500 Ukrainian KIA" estimate is "reliable"?
When I first McBeth's debunk of the Tucker-MacGregor fake fest, and I heard that number 17,500, I thought that this is really grossly and obviously far too low. Consider that more than a year ago already, in June 2022, Ukraine admitted 10,000 KIA, and that during that time (May-June 2022), Zelenskyy talked of 100 to 200 daily deaths.
Even if we go as low as 50 per day, 400 days have passed since, that's 20,000 KIA by now - and that would have to be a very low, careful estimate, as the numbers come from the UA side.

The 17,500 figure apparently came from a US DIA estimate in April. Since then, Ukraine has been on a tough offense in the Zhaporizhzhia oblast, and alsounder fierce pressure in the Kupiyansk direction, plus the Russian advance in Bakhmut continuin into May. So add very substantial numbers to that, now that we are four months later. Easily 10,000 more.

BUT there is new reporting from the NYT (picked up e.g. by Graudian), credited to "US officials", that suddenly speaks of 70,000 KIA one the Ukrainian side, 120,000 Russians. While this is perhaps an overestimate, it gives me (and McBeth) cause to consider 17,500 - now or even in April - as very likely on the low side.

So, I actually think McBeth's carefulness with the numbers actually adds to the quality of his video.
 
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