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Time Magazine: "Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead"

Sorry but I called it. It is going to get worse for Kerry. Watch how he responds this week. It will be Democratic spluttering in indignation and yet he will not finish off the SB thing. Democratic talking heads will blame GW. Watch.
 
I think the sad thing is that swing voters are so fickle that they switch sides over some smoke and mirrors conventions.
 
Oh the shock and depression of having to get a job. You'll have to cut your protest time in half! Not to mention the tremendous task of waking up by noon to send out your super-padded, highly euphemistic, acronym-lacking resumes.....

"Curse you Arnold Swartz-nazi! Curse you Donald Rumsfeld! I have to wear a brown shirt at Taco Bueno! It's just like Auschwitz - I mean - Abu Ghraib!!!"

And if your parents are paying for school-- actually go to class once in awhile, preferably ones that matter. Most H.R. reps do not want to see your many essays on Marxism and the Neoconservative-international-fascist Oil Conspiracy.
 
Anyway, If it were a Zogby poll, I'd take notice.


But this is from TIME, which is called "Old media". They are obsolete.
 
Cheer up. There's still time for bad news for the US for Democrats to capitalize on. Things could heat up in Iraq again. The economy could take a serious downturn. Lots of bad stuff can happen between now and then.
 
Excellent posts corplinx and peptoabysmal.


Months = Years when you are talking about political life.

What suprises me though is that George W. Bush gets a "Bounce" from the convention while John F Kerry didn't get any form of a bounce from the DNC.
 
Just as I foresaw.

Please check my Kerry got SLAUGHTERED in NY... to see my prediction of a huge bounce coming out of this convention.

Here is what happened:

Arnold appealed to moderates and independents.

Cheney took a few chunks out of Kerry.

Then Zell Miller machine-gunned Kerry right in the gut, but more significantly, Miller spoke a language that attracts southern Dems to vote for Bush.

Then, the icing on the cake was Bush framing the vote as a referendum on spreading freedom around the world, which in a way, it is. Bush's speech was significant because he basically told America he intends to carry out a huge campaign around the world to topple dictators and cruel regimes and replace them with free democracies. That is no small ambition, but the American people will follow him, I predict.
 
National polls don't mean as much as people like to think.

You should really follow some kind of electoral college tracker, like this: electoral-vote.com

(I'm not saying the Time poll is wrong -- in fact it may be more up to date than this link -- but it's obviously the electoral college numbers that matter)
 
Gary Gordon said:
Just as I foresaw.

Please check my Kerry got SLAUGHTERED in NY... to see my prediction of a huge bounce coming out of this convention.

Here is what happened:

Arnold appealed to moderates and independents.

Cheney took a few chunks out of Kerry.

Then Zell Miller machine-gunned Kerry right in the gut, but more significantly, Miller spoke a language that attracts southern Dems to vote for Bush.

Then, the icing on the cake was Bush framing the vote as a referendum on spreading freedom around the world, which in a way, it is. Bush's speech was significant because he basically told America he intends to carry out a huge campaign around the world to topple dictators and cruel regimes and replace them with free democracies. That is no small ambition, but the American people will follow him, I predict.
Click to expand...

Please read through your own thread and find out why they call it a BOUNCE. I think its a little early to declare victory.
 
Renfield said:
Please read through your own thread and find out why they call it a BOUNCE. I think its a little early to declare victory.
Click to expand...

Too late. I already it declared it a few days ago.

If you'd care to take me up on a little wager--say, $100--I'd be happy to part you from your loot. ;)
 
shuize said:
National polls don't mean as much as people like to think.

You should really follow some kind of electoral college tracker, like this: electoral-vote.com

(I'm not saying the Time poll is wrong -- in fact it may be more up to date than this link -- but it's obviously the electoral college numbers that matter)
Click to expand...

A national poll is just fine if the spread is outside the margin of error. A 4-5 point national lead in the vote is sufficient to neutralize the electoral college. That is, unless the national margin is vanishingly then, the electoral college and the national number are going to show the same result.

On the other hand, one national poll can be a bellweather or more likely, an outlier. The next few polls will tell...
 
Here's another

Bush is supported by 54 percent of the 1,008 registered voters surveyed Thursday and Friday, compared with 43 percent support for Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator. Independent candidate Ralph Nader polled 3 percent. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, Newsweek said.
Click to expand...
 
Are polls so far away from the election meaningful at all? I agree this was the best week of the election season so far for the Republicans, yes, but it's way too soon to reach any conclusions. Only two months ago, it seemed that Bush is just about defeated, according to the polls. Now he is leading. It's certainly possible that the reverse could happen in the next two months.
 
Conventional wisdom is that undecideds swing to the challenger in the home stretch.

Of course it needs to be close enough so that the swing matters.
 
varwoche said:
Conventional wisdom is that undecideds swing to the challenger in the home stretch.

Of course it needs to be close enough so that the swing matters.
Click to expand...
It's also conventional wisdom that when there's an incumbent in the race, the election isn't close. The incumbent either loses big or wins big because people are already familiar w/ him. This doesn't bode well for Kerry, but there's still 3 debates for him to turn things around in.
 
Kerry is even LOOKING defeated now...

r1501336094.jpg
 
Theodore Kurita said:
Well, here is the link.

This is just really depressing to read right now...

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html



Prepares for onslaught of rightwing trolls...
Click to expand...

Imagine that... popular dogmas rule America keeping the country from progressing in a new direction. In deed it is depressing, but not surpising. The Christian right, the fear of terrorism, and war seem to be what this country is thriving on right now.

I'll still be voting for Kerry though.
 
Neither party wants a sense of complacency going into the election, each will want to look like the underdog.

The wishy-washy 'undecideds' are probably a bit overrated this time, they'll probably stay home and watch Gilligan.

I don't know anyone who is "undecided", it is quite polarized here. I've never seen such interest in the outcome of an election.
 
The so-called 'double-digit lead' just means Bush now has TWO thumbs up his ass.
 
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