Thoughts on the Dunning-Kruger effect

[MRC_Hans]

Recently, someone linked to info on the Dunning–Kruger effect

I hadn't seen a formal description before, but I think we see this a lot, and it gave me a new understanding of many posters, here and elsewhere.

In my view, a synopsis of the D-K effect is:

A person has an unrealistic estimation of own competency on some subject, which is caused by ignorance(or lack of ability) of that subject.

Example: Person considers himself a good singer, because he is unable to hear just how horribly off-key he is singing.

I suppose most, if not all, of us have some area where we are slightly affected by this, however, a lot of posters here, who get classified in the 'woo' or 'crackpot' category suffer from this effect.

Some of these are quite rational people, and once they find themselves in the company of more knowledgeable people, they often realize theiy own lackings, and listen to sense. The next step is that they abandon their faulty ideas and either learn about the subject, or just accept that this is outside their competence.

Others, especially if their D-K is paired with a touch of megalomania, persecution complex, and/or some form of fanatism, will not progress. They will instead dig themselves deeper into their conviction of being the only sensible person around, elaborate on their dream-world, and generally be a lost cause.

However, I think that understanding this mechanism will help us to help others, not to mention, at times, ourselves.

Hans

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

I don't know much about this topic but I think you are right.

 

[Donn]

Hans, do you like your new avatar? Touch of DK there, maybe?

(Petition to bring back the old Hans.)

 

[MRC_Hans]

Hans, do you like your new avatar? Touch of DK there, maybe?

(Petition to bring back the old Hans.)

Calling me old, ehh?

Well I am, but no need to rub it in.

Hans

 

[Donn]

Calling me old, ehh?

No, no. Unless you're trying to double-DK-bluff me, I was talkin' about your avatar.

 

[MRC_Hans]

No, no. Unless you're trying to double-DK-bluff me, I was talkin' about your avatar.

However, since my old avatar was me .......

Nevermind....

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

I must shape up a bit. Here I start what I think is a perfectly serious thread, and after (at most) two posts, it goes off to never-never land.

*sigh*

Why is it that only the trolls and the cranks get fifty page threads?

Hans

 

[Donn]

Heh, 'cos sense is usually short and sweet.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Einstien was wrong, and that Hawkins thinks he's soo clever. You dont need math to do physics!

 

[Donn]

I'd have to say, in my life, I always suspect my presumptions and I have a painful awareness of just how little I know. This sense has made it very hard for me to show confidence and that has real downsides.

For example, I don't earn what others doing the same thing earn. I "feel" bad quoting a lot of money in confusing ways; which is what I have seen others do. They inflate their services to make them sound rarified and thus worth the high costs. (Design, advertising agencies and web design.)

The same thing happens with egos and reputations. People polish everything; their resumes, their pasts, their qualifications, their deeds. Where does it end? When you try to be humble and accurate about your limitations, you are immediately at a disadvantage because your are surrounded by sharks!

So... maybe a bit of DK is good for you? Maybe the cock-sure feeling that you are a pro, gets you past many hurdles that you would otherwise stop and study and think about?

 

[Donn]

However, since my old avatar was me .......
Nevermind....

I get it. I get it. I'm slow, but I get it.

I still say - bring the old, ancient, decrepit, sell-by in the rear-view mirror, long-beard, mummified Hans back! Stat! What is that blue horror with red tips for ears?

 

[zooterkin]

Recently, someone linked to info on the Dunning–Kruger effect

I hadn't seen a formal description before, but I think we see this a lot, and it gave me a new understanding of many posters, here and elsewhere.

It's not a new observation (see my sig), but it is useful that it has been quantified and named. Reading the page now, I see there's an update since I last read it, saying that the effect seems to be greatest with Americans, and in some cultures the reverse effect is noticed.

It's also rather depressing, as it suggests that simply explaining the problem to sufferers of the effect may not work, as they won't understand that they are affected by it.

 

[Jeff Corey]

It's not a new observation (see my sig), but it is useful that it has been quantified and named. Reading the page now, I see there's an update since I last read it, saying that the effect seems to be greatest with Americans, and in some culture the reverse is true...

There's a [citation needed] there.
Never trust Wikipedia unless there's a citation to a peer reviewed study or you might end up in the bottom quartile.

 

[zooterkin]

There's a [citation needed] there.
Never trust Wikipedia unless there's a citation to a peer reviewed study or you might end up in the bottom quartile.

You'll note that I didn't say I believed it.

Just curious, why did you reword the end of what you quoted me as saying?

 

[Filippo Lippi]

Recently, someone linked to info on the Dunning–Kruger effect

I hadn't seen a formal description before, but I think we see this a lot, and it gave me a new understanding of many posters, here and elsewhere.

In my view, a synopsis of the D-K effect is:

A person has an unrealistic estimation of own competency on some subject, which is caused by ignorance(or lack of ability) of that subject.

Example: Person considers himself a good singer, because he is unable to hear just how horribly off-key he is singing.

I suppose most, if not all, of us have some area where we are slightly affected by this, however, a lot of posters here, who get classified in the 'woo' or 'crackpot' category suffer from this effect.

Some of these are quite rational people, and once they find themselves in the company of more knowledgeable people, they often realize theiy own lackings, and listen to sense. The next step is that they abandon their faulty ideas and either learn about the subject, or just accept that this is outside their competence.

Others, especially if their D-K is paired with a touch of megalomania, persecution complex, and/or some form of fanatism, will not progress. They will instead dig themselves deeper into their conviction of being the only sensible person around, elaborate on their dream-world, and generally be a lost cause.

However, I think that understanding this mechanism will help us to help others, not to mention, at times, ourselves.

Hans

I thought it went a bit further than being rubbish at something into "so rubbish that they cannot appraise their own performance and so greatly over-estimate their ability"

I wrote this with my thumbs

 

[punshhh]

Recently, someone linked to info on the Dunning–Kruger effect

I hadn't seen a formal description before, but I think we see this a lot, and it gave me a new understanding of many posters, here and elsewhere.

In my view, a synopsis of the D-K effect is:

A person has an unrealistic estimation of own competency on some subject, which is caused by ignorance(or lack of ability) of that subject.

Example: Person considers himself a good singer, because he is unable to hear just how horribly off-key he is singing.

I suppose most, if not all, of us have some area where we are slightly affected by this, however, a lot of posters here, who get classified in the 'woo' or 'crackpot' category suffer from this effect.

Some of these are quite rational people, and once they find themselves in the company of more knowledgeable people, they often realize theiy own lackings, and listen to sense. The next step is that they abandon their faulty ideas and either learn about the subject, or just accept that this is outside their competence.

Others, especially if their D-K is paired with a touch of megalomania, persecution complex, and/or some form of fanatism, will not progress. They will instead dig themselves deeper into their conviction of being the only sensible person around, elaborate on their dream-world, and generally be a lost cause.

However, I think that understanding this mechanism will help us to help others, not to mention, at times, ourselves.

Hans

A good dose of humility should cure it, along with a guiding hand.

 

[Mark6]

It's also rather depressing, as it suggests that simply explaining the problem to sufferers of the effect may not work, as they won't understand that they are affected by it.

Because they are not suffering from DK effect! It is a source of enjoyment, and you are trying to take it away from them

 

[Cuddles]

I thought it went a bit further than being rubbish at something into "so rubbish that they cannot appraise their own performance and so greatly over-estimate their ability"

I think the important point is that, as with many similar things, it's not a hard and fast "either you suffer from this or you don't", but actually a continuum. The worse you are at something, the more you'll tend to overestimate your ability. People who aren't absolutely terrible still overestimate their ability to some extent, just not so much as the people who are that bad.

 

[MRC_Hans]

I get it. I get it. I'm slow, but I get it.

I still say - bring the old, ancient, decrepit, sell-by in the rear-view mirror, long-beard, mummified Hans back! Stat! What is that blue horror with red tips for ears?

Actually, it's a glass sculpture, in a wonderful glass art museum we have in Denmark. If you are ever here and get near the town Ebeltoft, it is a must see.

http://www.glasmuseet.dk/index.php?id=996

Hans

 

[MRC_Hans]

The same thing happens with egos and reputations. People polish everything; their resumes, their pasts, their qualifications, their deeds. Where does it end? When you try to be humble and accurate about your limitations, you are immediately at a disadvantage because your are surrounded by sharks!

So... maybe a bit of DK is good for you? Maybe the cock-sure feeling that you are a pro, gets you past many hurdles that you would otherwise stop and study and think about?

Sure! DK, in itself, is not a pathology, it is a behavioural pattern. This makes it very likely that it has some evolutionary advantage. I think it is really related to the thing that make many animals ignore things they don't understand: If you don't know the right way to react, it is better to do nothing and hope for the best.

Or small dogs that bark their little heads off; in their own mind they are the largest predator on the bloc, and the others leave them alone, because .... who knows?

Hans