The World After Coronavirus

[Cheetah]

How the World Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic
^{We asked 12 leading global thinkers for their predictions}

To help us make sense of the ground shifting beneath our feet as this crisis unfolds, Foreign Policy asked 12 leading thinkers from around the world to weigh in with their predictions for the global order after the pandemic.

It's pretty early to say, but I think it's going to pull us together as a whole. Also China is going to end up number one.​

Thread moved from non-USA Politics as it has global relevance.

Posted By: zooterkin

 

[rjh01]

Some more predictions
1. More working from home.
2. People make an effort to know their neighbours.
3. People demanding more security. But not the sort that locks and guards provide.
4. Some people who said the virus is nothing have their careers ended.

Thanks for starting this. Wanted a thread like this.

 

[The Atheist]

It's pretty early to say, but I think it's going to pull us together as a whole. Also China is going to end up number one.

I'll have a vote for "nothing changed".

The first thing that will happen when it ends is there will be a massive boom, millions of jobs to be filled, and immediate strong growth and everyone will go back to where they were quite quickly.

The desire to put it behind them will likely overcome any positive effects among the 95% of people who will have lived through the lockdowns and are pissed off at their financial losses.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

There might be a backlash against the various populist movements.

All of them came to power on the "we'll do everything you like and nothing you don't like!" with a nice bit of xenophobia added.

But this crisis shows that while they are able to sponge off the successes of various more responsible governments, but they are abysmal at crisis management, and the virus is not spread by scary foreigners, but rather rich tourists ignoring safety precautions.

 

[timhau]

There might be a backlash against the various populist movements.

All of them came to power on the "we'll do everything you like and nothing you don't like!" with a nice bit of xenophobia added.

But this crisis shows that while they are able to sponge off the successes of various more responsible governments, but they are abysmal at crisis management, and the virus is not spread by scary foreigners, but rather rich tourists ignoring safety precautions.

The support was and is fear-based, not fact-based. That's why I doubt the crisis will have much of an effect on it. Chalk me up for "no change".

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Trends towards dematerialization and local production will accelerate.
Health monitoring apps and devices will become commonplace.
The TSA will install heat cameras to identify travellers with a fever.

 

[wobs]

Will be good for Tories (UK), and Republicans (US). Similar to how 9/11 was good for Dubya.

We'll be great initially at addressing the issues it raises, but after a few years, we will likely return to old habits. A bit like how we a great at preventing the disaster that just happened.

 

[Darat]

I'll have a vote for "nothing changed".
The first thing that will happen when it ends is there will be a massive boom, millions of jobs to be filled, and immediate strong growth and everyone will go back to where they were quite quickly.

The desire to put it behind them will likely overcome any positive effects among the 95% of people who will have lived through the lockdowns and are pissed off at their financial losses.

I vote for that - apart from I think we will see more working from home as I think the more sceptical and suspicious employers will realise they can save a lot of money by forcing employees to use their own resources rather than having to pay out for office costs.

 

[Trebuchet]

In the fairly near term, half the independent restaurants in the country will go out of business.

 

[Andy_Ross]

I don't think anything will change.
It will all be forgotten in a few months when the next 'crisis' comes along.

 

[Cheetah]

No one thinks there will be a relative shift in power from the west to the east?
I think the US and Europe are probably going to take a bigger knock than Asia and take longer to recover.

 

[Horatius]

I think we'll have to have a major re-design of almost every public washroom. For years we've had a trend towards increasingly skimpy automated sinks, soap dispensers and hot-air hand dryers, in the name of saving money. I knew they were inadequate for proper handwashing even before all this came about, and now, with the prevalence of all the warnings about needing to wash your hands properly, more people will become aware of this issue.

I suspect there will be a public demand to rip out all the crap sinks that are out there, and put in something that actually lets you wash your hands properly. It could even be a part of a public works program to help kick-start the economy. Pay businesses to hire plumbers to do all this work.

 

[Venom]

The world after COVID-19.

There will probably always be new coronaviruses popping up from the local mammalian wildlife.

 

[Darat]

In the fairly near term, half the independent restaurants in the country will go out of business.

No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000, tax bills deferred for many months or entirely waived , interest free state backed loans with long repayment deferents, to supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

 

[Andy_Ross]

They haven't said how to apply yet though

eta

I spoke too soon there is info on the gov.uk website

Local authorities will get in touch with businesses.

 

[Trebuchet]

No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000, tax bills deferred for many months or entirely waived , interest free state backed loans with long repayment deferents, to supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

I was talking about a different country! We'll see.

 

[JoeMorgue]

Another vote for "nothing"

The narrative will be "we have to go back to normal as part of the healing process" kind of thing.

Some minor things are inevitable (some businesses will not come back from this) and "pandemic" will just incorporated into our national "Be prepared" mindset the same way Y2K was.

But any big, organized change? Nope.

 

[William Parcher]

No they won’t, the government support from one off grants to 25,000

Not sure what this number represents. Is that grants for up to 25,000 businesses? Or is that business grants for up to £25,000 each?

supporting 80% of salaries and so on means there is no reason at all for any restaurant, pub or cafe to go out of business.

I assume that you are talking about paying 80% of the salaries of a restaurant's staff. But will the government pay 80% of the "salary" of the restaurant owner?

 

[Darat]

Not sure what this number represents. Is that grants for up to 25,000 businesses? Or is that business grants for up to £25,000 each?





I assume that you are talking about paying 80% of the salaries of a restaurant's staff. But will the government pay 80% of the "salary" of the restaurant owner?

Upto £25000 per business. Would depend on how the business is structured. If the owner is on PAYE then yes.

 

[alfaniner]

I think we'll have to have a major re-design of almost every public washroom. For years we've had a trend towards increasingly skimpy automated sinks, soap dispensers and hot-air hand dryers, in the name of saving money. I knew they were inadequate for proper handwashing even before all this came about, and now, with the prevalence of all the warnings about needing to wash your hands properly, more people will become aware of this issue.

I suspect there will be a public demand to rip out all the crap sinks that are out there, and put in something that actually lets you wash your hands properly. It could even be a part of a public works program to help kick-start the economy. Pay businesses to hire plumbers to do all this work.

There should be portable hand-washing stations ion every downtown or well-strode street. I've seen them set up at county fairs and the like -- probably by the same company that provides the nearby porta-potties.