The Power of Nightmares

Mrick

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The networks are pretty much useless in the states.

But the BBC is running an interesting documentary on Al Queda.

Says the documentary:

"In the wake of the shock and panic created by the devastating attack on the World Trade Center on 11 September, 2001, the neo-conservatives reconstructed the radical Islamists in the image of their last evil enemy, the Soviet Union - a sinister web of terror run from the centre by Osama Bin Laden in his lair in Afghanistan."

The documentary contends that the vast well controlled network doesn't now nor never did exist. There has always been terrorist. But not this super terrorism. There are no huge number of sleeper cells.

Osama himself was never as powerful. Just rich. And while he controlled only a few men, others came to him for money and facilities. Those on the plane were such a group.

However, there is a good reason to create the super terrorist network. It is to establish control.

Could the neocons be like a good magician invoking misdirection.

Here is the link for the documentary for those that can get the BBC. I doubt it will ever see the light of day in the United States.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/3970901.stm

Mrick
 
Mrick said:
the BBC is running an interesting documentary on Al Queda.
I'm very interested in seeing this. My thoughts in the meantime...

documentary: In the wake of the shock and panic created by the devastating attack on the World Trade Center on 11 September, 2001, the neo-conservatives reconstructed the radical Islamists in the image of their last evil enemy, the Soviet Union - a sinister web of terror run from the centre by Osama Bin Laden in his lair in Afghanistan.
Sounds like empty rhetoric.
The documentary contends that the vast well controlled network doesn't now nor never did exist.
It's been widely reported that al-Qaeda was decentralized before 911, and much more decentralized since. Many think this makes them more dangerous, not less.
But not this super terrorism. There are no huge number of sleeper cells.
911 was in and of itself super terrorism. As to number of sleeper cells, I'm curious as to the evidence (either way).
Osama himself was never as powerful. Just rich. And while he controlled only a few men, others came to him for money and facilities. Those on the plane were such a group.
He is a hero in the Islamic world the likes of which happens once a generation if that. The fact that "others came to him" speaks to his influence.
However, there is a good reason to create the super terrorist network. It is to establish control.
This seems way paranoid to me, despite that I strongly oppose the way the administration has conducted the war on terror, and strongly oppose (many aspects of) the Patriot Act.

In my opinion, the threat posed by the Islamist movement is worse than the government portrays. The person who is arguably the world's leading expert on bin Laden and al Qaeda (amongst the good guys) -- Michael Sheuer, former head of the CIA bin Laden unit and author of Imperial Hubris -- happens to agree. He argues that 911 is baby stuff compared to what lies ahead. Sheuer is severely critical of the administration, incidentally -- in no way, shape or form is he touting the neo-con party line.
 
I saw the documentary when it aired in the UK. It is very interesting and definitely worth a look. It certains presents a convincing argument that the NeoCons inflate the danger of terrorism to promote their own goals (the danger of communism, similarly inflated, having gone).
 
I saw this last night and it does indeed present a convincing argument for the existence of a neo-con plot to 'keep America scared'.

The other shows in the series delve into the history of the neo-cons and the Islamic political movement. I don't want to get all Michael Moore about this but some neo-cons scare me more than the terrorists.

I don't think the presenter was trying to say that Osama wasn't dangerous or that there was nothing to fear from Islamic terrorism, he was making the point that the fear has been blown out of proportion for political ends.

How do American citizens really view the likes of Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz? Is the rest of the world getting a balanced opinion of them?
 
Re: Re: The Power of Nightmares

varwoche said:
I'm very interested in seeing this. My thoughts in the meantime...

Sounds like empty rhetoric.
It's been widely reported that al-Qaeda was decentralized before 911, and much more decentralized since. Many think this makes them more dangerous, not less.
911 was in and of itself super terrorism. As to number of sleeper cells, I'm curious as to the evidence (either way).
He is a hero in the Islamic world the likes of which happens once a generation if that. The fact that "others came to him" speaks to his influence.
This seems way paranoid to me, despite that I strongly oppose the way the administration has conducted the war on terror, and strongly oppose (many aspects of) the Patriot Act.

In my opinion, the threat posed by the Islamist movement is worse than the government portrays. The person who is arguably the world's leading expert on bin Laden and al Qaeda (amongst the good guys) -- Michael Sheuer, former head of the CIA bin Laden unit and author of Imperial Hubris -- happens to agree. He argues that 911 is baby stuff compared to what lies ahead. Sheuer is severely critical of the administration, incidentally -- in no way, shape or form is he touting the neo-con party line.

He may have been correct about them being a bigger threat than they were originally regared, (which is really just due to racism, who would have thought a few towel heads could do that?).

But what can they do that is bigger? If they buy a nuke from the Ruskies, or somewhere else, the US is entitled to retribution in kind. That means that many more Muslims will die than Americans. Bin Laden may attract followers to a war of arms and bravado, a war in which millions of muslims will die will ultimately be seen as sheer stupidity. Short term, ok, some may buy it, long term, the failure of Allah to defeat the infidel means that Osama goes down in history as a loser.

Ditto Bush, when he had the chance to take the bull by the horns and show leadership towards peace, he chose the path of self absorption and self deception.
 
Re: Re: The Power of Nightmares

varwoche said:

In my opinion, the threat posed by the Islamist movement is worse than the government portrays. The person who is arguably the world's leading expert on bin Laden and al Qaeda (amongst the good guys) -- Michael Sheuer, former head of the CIA bin Laden unit and author of Imperial Hubris -- happens to agree. He argues that 911 is baby stuff compared to what lies ahead. Sheuer is severely critical of the administration, incidentally -- in no way, shape or form is he touting the neo-con party line.

It's like poking a beehive with a stick and complaining of getting stung somewhat. We have been poking around over there since the 40s and only felt the sting on the home grounds once.

Consider the history. Support of the Shaw, giving rise to the Ayatollah. Then the courting of Saddam and supplying him with weapons. The supporting of a corrupt royalty government in Saudi Arabia and the establishment of military bases in the holy land for Gulf 1. And then after a "terrorist attack" we turn most of our attention to eliminating the secular balance in the region all the while screaming about terrorism from religious extremist. We could not have made Osama more right in his accusations.

I mean we were not attacked as Rice said because "they hate our freedom". We were attacked because we have inserted ourselves into the region for the oil.

The blowback is more terrorism, not less. And if we invade Iran, more terrorism still. After all, war is a great organizing force. And US support of some despots while complaining of others is easily seen through.

imho,
Mrick
 
Re: Re: Re: The Power of Nightmares

Mrick said:
It's like poking a beehive with a stick and complaining of getting stung somewhat.
You're preaching to the choir. By and large I hold American foriegn policy to blame for the war on terror.
 
just finished watching it at the link i gave above

it is pretty entertaining. even if you don't agree with the thesis, it is worth a watch. things i liked about it:

- they hate us because of our obsession over lawn care and the song "baby it's cold outside"
- donald rumsfield hasn't changed his speeches in 20 years, just replace "soviet" with "terrorist".
- muslims have as much to fear from terrorists as the rest of the world -- i like the guy in algeria who decided to jihad against everyone except his own family.

even though the video was filmed in october, it has a few things that look "prophetic" today:

- there is a shot of a few seconds in the third part which shows a tsunami slamming into a beach resort, (non sequitir).
- richard perle, in an interview, toward the end of the last part says, "fighting tyranny to bring 'democracy' to the world", which sound like bush's inaugural speech. however, the context it was discussed makes those words scary.

i think this video is much better than michael moore's
"fahrenheit 911". it should be required viewing in america -- just to see if there is anyone left who can still be "deprogrammed".
 
It is unclear to me how the threat can be "overstated". What is, if it is "overstated" the correct "statement"? Given the potential for destruction, what advantge is there to correctly stating the threat downward?

I don't think that I had ever come across the claim that bin Laden has Hitler-like in terms of control of a large organization. Rather, the word "diffuse" had regularly been used to describe the threat IIRC.

While our foreign policy is certainly an issue in the affair, we are now faced with a situation. Having not seen this documentary, what do they propose as a solution? Is there something concrete or is it a bunch of whining?
 
Below are a few excerpts from the transcipt of the program. I'm not convinced but one thing that struck me was that I dont really know of any evidence that Bin Ladens international terror network exsists. Is there any evidence? How do we know that Bin Laden isnt a relatively isolated radical/nutter who occasionally funds other peoples operations?

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VO: In the past, politicians promised to create a better world. They had different ways of achieving this. But their power and authority came from the optimistic visions they offered to their people. Those dreams failed. And today, people have lost faith in ideologies. Increasingly, politicians are seen simply as managers of public life. But now, they have discovered a new role that restores their power and authority. Instead of delivering dreams, politicians now promise to protect us from nightmares. They say that they will rescue us from dreadful dangers that we cannot see and do not understand. And the greatest danger of all is international terrorism. A powerful and sinister network, with sleeper cells in countries across the world. A threat that needs to be fought by a war on terror. But much of this threat is a fantasy, which has been exaggerated and distorted by politicians. It�s a dark illusion that has spread unquestioned through governments around the world, the security services, and the international media.

VO: This is a series of films about how and why that fantasy was created, and who it benefits. At the heart of the story are two groups: the American neoconservatives, and the radical Islamists. Last week’s episode ended in the late ‘90s with both groups marginalized and out of power. But with the attacks of September 11th, the fates of both dramatically changed. The Islamists, after their moment of triumph, were virtually destroyed within months, while the neoconservatives took power in Washington. But then, the neoconservatives began to reconstruct the Islamists. They created a phantom enemy. And as this nightmare fantasy began to spread, politicians realized the newfound power it gave them in a deeply disillusioned age. Those with the darkest nightmares became the most powerful.
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VO: In January, 2001, a trial began in a Manhattan courtroom of four men accused of the embassy bombings in east Africa. But the Americans had also decided to prosecute bin Laden in his absence. But to do this under American law, the prosecutors needed evidence of a criminal organisation because, as with the Mafia, that would allow them to prosecute the head of the organisation even if he could not be linked directly to the crime. And the evidence for that organisation was provided for them by an ex-associate of bin Laden’s called Jamal al-Fadl.

JASON BURKE , AUTHOR, “AL QAEDA” : During the investigation of the 1998 bombings, there is a walk-in source, Jamal al-Fadl, who is a Sudanese militant who was with bin Laden in the early 90s, who has been passed around a whole series of Middle East secret services, none of whom want much to do with him, and who ends up in America and is taken on by—uh—the American government, effectively, as a key prosecution witness and is given a huge amount of American taxpayers’ money at the same time. And his account is used as raw material to build up a picture of Al Qaeda. The picture that the FBI want to build up is one that will fit the existing laws that they will have to use to prosecute those responsible for the bombing. Now, those laws were drawn up to counteract organised crime: the Mafia, drugs crime, crimes where people being a member of an organisation is extremely important. You have to have an organisation to get a prosecution. And you have al-Fadl and a number of other witness, a number of other sources, who are happy to feed into this. You’ve got material that, looked at in a certain way, can be seen to show this organisation’s existence. You put the two together and you get what is the first bin Laden myth—the first Al Qaeda myth. And because it’s one of the first, it’s extremely influential.

VO: The picture al-Fadl drew for the Americans of bin Laden was of an all-powerful figure at the head of a large terrorist network that had an organised network of control. He also said that bin Laden had given this network a name: “Al Qaeda.” It was a dramatic and powerful picture of bin Laden, but it bore little relationship to the truth.

[ EXCERPT, CNN EXCLUSIVE VIDEO : BIN LADEN AND SOLDIERS ]

VO: The reality was that bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri had become the focus of a loose association of disillusioned Islamist militants who were attracted by the new strategy. But there was no organisation. These were militants who mostly planned their own operations and looked to bin Laden for funding and assistance. He was not their commander. There is also no evidence that bin Laden used the term “Al Qaeda” to refer to the name of a group until after September the 11th, when he realized that this was the term the Americans have given it.
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VO: The attack on America by 19 hijackers shocked the world. It was Ayman Zawahiri’s new strategy, implemented in a brutal and spectacular way. But neither he nor bin Laden were the originators of what was called the “Planes Operation.” It was the brainchild of an Islamist militant called Khalid Sheik Mohammed, who came to bin Laden for funding and help in finding volunteers. But in the wake of panic created by the attacks, the politicians reached for the model which had been created by the trial earlier that year: the hijackers were just the tip of a vast, international terrorist network which was called, “Al Qaeda.”
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VO: The terrible truth was that there was nothing there because Al Qaeda as an organisation did not exist. The attacks on America had been planned by a small group that had come together around bin Laden in the late 90s. What united them was an idea: an extreme interpretation of Islamism developed by Ayman Zawahiri. With the American invasion, that group had been destroyed, killed or scattered. What was left was the idea, and the real danger was the way this idea could inspire groups and individuals around the world who had no relationship to each other. In looking for an organisation, the Americans and the British were chasing a phantom enemy and missing the real threat.

JASON BURKE , AUTHOR, “AL QAEDA” : I was with the Royal Marines as they trooped around eastern Afghanistan, and every time they got a location for a supposed Al Qaeda or Taliban element or base, they’d turn up and there was no one there, or there’d be a few startled shepherds, and that struck me then as being a wonderful image to the war on terror, because people are looking for something that isn’t there. There is no organisation with its terrorist operatives, cells, sleeper cells, so on and so forth. What there is is an idea, prevalent among young, angry Muslim males throughout the Islamic world. That idea is what poses a threat.
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VO: What the British and American governments have done is both distort and exaggerate the real nature of the threat. There are dangerous and fanatical groups around the world who’ve been inspired by the extreme Islamist theories, and they are prepared to use the techniques of mass terror on civilians. The bombings in Madrid showed this only too clearly. But this is not a new phenomenon. What is new is the way the American and other governments have transformed this complex and disparate threat into a simplistic fantasy of an organised web of uniquely powerful terrorists who may strike anywhere and at any moment. But no one questioned this fantasy because, increasingly, it was serving the interests of so many people. For the press, television, and hundreds of terrorism experts, the fact that it seemed so like fiction made it irresistible to their audiences. And the Islamists, too, began to realise that by feeding this media fantasy they could become a powerful organisation—if only in people’s imaginations.
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VO: What Blair argued was that faced by the new threat of a global terror network, the politician�s role was now to look into the future and imagine the worst that might happen and then act ahead of time to prevent it. In doing this, Blair was embracing an idea that had actually been developed by the Green movement: it was called the “precautionary principle.” Back in the 1980s, thinkers within the ecology movement believed the world was being threatened by global warming, but at the time there was little scientific evidence to prove this. So they put forward the radical idea that governments had a higher duty: they couldn’t wait for the evidence, because by then it would be too late; they had to act imaginatively, on intuition, in order to save the world from a looming catastrophe.

[ CUT , INTERIOR , MEETING ROOM ]

DURODIE : In essence, the precautionary principle says that not having the evidence that something might be a problem is not a reason for not taking action as if it were a problem. That’s a very famous triple-negative phrase that effectively says that action without evidence is justified. It requires imagining what the worst might be and applying that imagination upon the worst evidence that currently exists.

[ CUT , INTERIOR , HALL ; ANGLE ON TONY BLAIR ADDRESSING STATE FUNCTION ]

BLAIR : Would Al Qaeda buy weapons of mass destruction if they could? Certainly. Does it have the financial resources? Probably. Would it use such weapons? Definitely.

[ CUT , INTERIOR , MEETING ROOM ]

DURODIE : But once you start imagining what could happen, then—then there’s no limit. What if they had access to it? What if they could effectively deploy it? What if we weren’t prepared? What it is is a shift from the scientific, “what is” evidence-based decision making to this speculative, imaginary, “what if”-based, worst case scenario.


VO: The supporters of the precautionary principle argue that this loss of rights is the price that society has to pay when faced by the unique and terrifying threat of the Al Qaeda network. But, as this series has shown, the idea of a hidden, organised web of terror is largely a fantasy, and by embracing the precautionary principle, the politicians have become trapped in a vicious circle: they imagine the worst about an organisation that doesn�t even exist. But no one questions this because the very basis of the precautionary principle is to imagine the worst without supporting evidence, and, instead, those with the darkest imaginations become the most influential.


JOHNSTON : How will we ever know when it’s over? How will we ever know when the threat is gone? In the mindset we are now in, once we declare it to be over will be exactly the time that we believe that they will strike.
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VO: But the fear will not last, and just as the dreams that politicians once promised turned out to be illusions, so, too, will the nightmares, and then our politicians will have to face the fact that they have no visions, either good or bad, to offer us any longer.
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Re: Re: Re: The Power of Nightmares

a_unique_person said:


But what can they do that is bigger? If they buy a nuke from the Ruskies, or somewhere else, the US is entitled to retribution in kind. That means that many more Muslims will die than Americans. Bin Laden may attract followers to a war of arms and bravado, a war in which millions of muslims will die will ultimately be seen as sheer stupidity. Short term, ok, some may buy it, long term, the failure of Allah to defeat the infidel means that Osama goes down in history as a loser.

Not sure I understand you. I don't think it would ever be seen as stupidity. Hyper religious people just don't think that way.
 
OK, I slogged through half of part 1 and half of part 2.

Like Moore's F911, this impresses me as mindless propoganda of a high order despite that it touches on many truthful, interesting and disconcerting topics along the way.

Replete with dramatic music and all.
 
Moreover

iain said:
I saw the documentary when it aired in the UK. It is very interesting and definitely worth a look. It certains presents a convincing argument that the NeoCons inflate the danger of terrorism to promote their own goals (the danger of communism, similarly inflated, having gone).

Moreover, I have heard a mover and shaker of the neo-con/religious right with direct connection to the Bush adminstration say as much - that now, without the communist enemy they had to turn to the next imminent threat which is world wide Islamic terrorism. The neoconservative right freely admits this - that they took care of communism and have now set their sights on "terrorism".
 

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