http://www.lp.org/exitplan.pdf
Thoughts?
Iraq Exit Strategy: Troop Withdrawal
The first step is immediately to begin the withdrawal of all American troops from
Iraq. Currently American troop levels are at about 140,00011. Troops would leave
gradually, in increments of approximately 11,600 per month, resulting in a complete
withdrawal in one year’s time. This will bring the troops out of harm’s way quickly,
preventing more unnecessary loss of life. Allowing a year for the withdrawal will give
the Iraqi government time to train and deploy a sufficient security force in trouble
areas.
As the United States removes troops from Iraq, 30,000 will be relocated to other
Middle Eastern countries. Ten thousand troops will be placed in Afghanistan for
peacekeeping purposes. Decisions regarding troop reallocation will be based on the
locations of existing U.S. military bases in the Middle East. The most likely
candidates would be Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt and Oman. These countries were chosen
based on current foreign military base information in the Department of Defense
Base Structure Report12. All of the previously mentioned countries have U.S. military
bases that possess additional acres to house more troops. The remaining troops,
numbering approximately 100,000 would return home rather being relocated to
other Middle Eastern countries. This would help reduce the strain on military reserves
and free up military resources for the War on Terror.
Those against the immediate withdrawal of American troops believe an American
departure will create a significant power vacuum. They assert that Iraqi security
forces are ill-equipped to stand alone. It is feasible that, given a year for training,
the Iraqi security forces would be able to control the insurgency. As of January 2005,
the Iraqi Army had a total of 68 operating battalions which includes the Iraqi
National Guard that was incorporated into the Iraqi Army13. The Iraqi government
has its own Special Operation Forces, including a counter-terrorist force to combat
insurgents14. As of January 2005 there were approximately 55,000 trained Iraqi
police officers. Furthermore, there are five police academies that together train
approximately 3,500 police officers a month. Using these numbers, approximately
42,000 officers could be trained in one year, almost doubling their current numbers.
At the end of the troop withdrawal process, the Iraqi government could have 97,000
police officers trained and placed on the streets.
By removing our troops from Iraq and relocating them to various bases in the Middle
East, we remove the insurgency’s common enemy. The insurgency consists of many
different factions with no central leadership. One faction consists of leftover
remnants of the former regime, such as the Ba’ath party, Republican Guard and the
paramilitary Fida’iyin. A second faction consists of religious groups who wish to turn
Iraq into an Islamic state. Some of these groups are trained overseas or are foreign
nationals, the latter including Syrians, Saudis, Yemenis and Sudanese15. Another
faction is comprised of nationalist groups who oppose American troops being
stationed in Iraq and were against Saddam Hussein’s regime16. According to the
Strategic Studies Institute, most of the armed opposition has been Sunni17. Even
though major Sunni political parties such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iraqi
Islamic Party are participating in the political process, many Sunni clerics have
strongly opposed the American military presence. “Without the occupation as an
outside enemy, those much smaller sectors of the resistance that are motivated
largely by religious extremism and who are responsible for some of the worst
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violence against civilians, will likely become isolated from the broader sectors of the
resistance,†the Strategic Studies Institute authors noted18.
Negotiations with nationalist groups not tied to the former regime should take place
in tandem with the withdrawal of U.S. troops. “We are not going to win the
unconditional surrender from the insurgents and have no choice but to somehow
bring them into society,†said retired Army Colonel Paul Hughes, an Iraq war veteran
who is now at the government-funded U.S. Institute for Peace19. There is evidence
suggesting that these groups would consider surrendering in exchange for immediate
and complete U.S. withdrawal and major political concessions to the Sunnis20.
Removing the Sunni nationalist groups will help to isolate the more extreme
elements of the insurgency. Divisions between secular Iraqi insurgents and Muslim
extremists are becoming more evident; insurgents native to Iraq have denounced
the brutal tactics of the extremists21. It is hoped that a negotiated settlement with
the mainstream faction of the insurgency will help to further polarize the extremists.
Direct-Aid Program
After U.S. troop withdrawal begins, a direct-aid program will begin for the Iraqi
government. The U.S. government will disperse funds directly to the Iraqi
government to be used strictly for the creation of viable infrastructure. The Iraqi
government will exercise complete control over the spending of funds and the
contracting of projects. Giving Iraqis complete administrative and fiscal control over
rebuilding their infrastructure will allow them to tap into local “know-how†that only
Iraqis possess.
Safeguards will be put in place to ensure U.S. aid is spent efficiently and effectively.
Strict accounting guidelines promoting transparency and accountability must be in
place prior to the disbursement of aid. An independent third-party auditor must be
hired to perform an audit every six months until the program has ended. These
audits will be made available to Congress and to the American public. If fraud is
detected, aid monies will be withheld until the problem is corrected.
The Iraqi government will be required to choose and hire a private firm to perform
oversight on private contractors. The firm’s mission will be to ensure that all contract
work is completed in a timely and efficient manner and to prevent fraud, waste and
inefficiency. The overseeing firm will be required to furnish reports to the Iraqi and
American governments. Additionally, these reports will be available for full public
disclosure.
Even though the direct-aid program will be a substantial cost to American taxpayers,
the United States is now obligated to make sure Iraq becomes a stable, independent
and functional country. Substantial progress has been made in rebuilding the Iraqi
infrastructure, but this does not satisfy the need for additional aid. A conservative
estimate by USAID projects a total reconstruction expenditure of $150 billion22.
Based on current estimates, oil sales alone will not provide adequate funding for
reconstruction projects. A Centre for Global Energy Studies report states that if Iraq
were to pay all financial obligations without any outside assistance, the nation would
continue to run a deficit into 201623. Additionally, Iraq has not met the projected 2.5
million barrels per day (MBPD), with their average output in the second week of June
a 2.16 MBPD24. Iraq’s oil revenues for the entire year of 2004 were $18.1 billion25.
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Iraq’s national debt is estimated to be between $119 to $135 billion before any debt
forgiveness has occurred, and the country owes an estimated $50 billion in war
reparations stemming from the 1991 Gulf War26. Many debt forgiveness initiatives
are already underway. Paris Club members have agreed to forgive a total of $42
billion of Iraq’s debt27. Iraq is still obligated to repay the Paris Club nations almost $8
billion28. The United States has agreed to forgive $4.5 billion of Iraq’s debt29. Other
countries will not provide debt relief until a freely elected government is in place. It
is still unclear whether or not Kuwait will forgive Iraq’s debt, estimated at $16 billion,
or the outstanding war reparations30. It is probable that, even with the institution of
debt-forgiveness programs, a direct aid program administered by the United States
will be required.
A direct aid program will give Iraq the best chance of becoming a stable, democratic,
free-market-oriented country. It is imperative that the Iraqi economy be fully
developed as quickly as possible. Vast, persistent unemployment would create a
fertile breeding ground for terrorists. The direct aid program will give Iraq vital
assistance while giving the Iraqi people, through their government, control over the
disbursement of funds. In previous successful postwar reconstructions, such as
Europe after World War II, the reconstructing governments managed the Marshall
Plan funds, not the United States31.
Thoughts?
