The End in Sight for Insurgents?

[corplinx]

It seems that since Saddam was captured, I have heard on every newscast how this does not mean that the violence will not stop. Now, I realize this started with Bush himself who was the first to say so. Of course, he was basically trying to cover his own political derriere from getting burned by high expectations.

However, it seems to me that now the grunts, intelligence, and special operations task force personnel who were assigned to hunt for saddam can be redeployed to hunt for the remnants behind the insurgency.

What do you guys think? Has everyone been overly pessimistic just to keep people from getting dissappointed when the next bloody ambush happens?

 

[Mr Manifesto]

All I can really say is, it depends.

There are some reports that a lot of the insurgents are actually Iraqis who hated Saddam but want the US out. If I had to take a punt, I'd say these would be Sunnis who don't want a 'multicultural' coalition running the country (they would probably rather have free elections knowing they can snap up most of the vote and run the country just how they please).

If this is the case, then the insurgents probably won't stop. But it's too early to tell, we don't know (or at least, I don't know) who's behind the sabotage, the RPG attacks, the mortar attacks, etc. A lot of people believe that it is impossible for such coordinated attacks to occur so soon after the fall of Saddam, unless it was Saddam coordinating them. I keep thinking, upon seeing Saddam's quarters, and knowing how much the war scattered his army, how unlikely it seems that Saddam could continue to organise forces against the US, short of the odd pep-talk.

 

[American]

The end was in sight from the start. This was one of the fastest defeats of a guerilla movement ever. The next troop rotation will decrease our numbers by 20%, but the 104th Army is partly being replaced by marines. No offense to their outstanding work, but the marines will do a better job even in smaller numbers. (That's how God set up the universe.)


Predictions:

-Syria is already scheduled for strikes, if not large scale invasion.

-Who knows about Iran, I can't figure that country out for anything.

-North Korea will perish in 2005, following the loss of one or two American cities to nuclear devices smuggled by sea.

 

[corplinx]

I believe they pinpointed one of the kings in the deck as the leader of organized insurgency. I am sure there is unorganized insurgency from Sunnins afraid of the new Iraq also as you suggest Manifesto.

 

[jj]

I believe they pinpointed one of the kings in the deck as the leader of organized insurgency. I am sure there is unorganized insurgency from Sunnins afraid of the new Iraq also as you suggest Manifesto.

I'm sure the Wahibists want their own "piece".

But let's hope that we can capture the organized parts, and get the infrastructure built up.

Comfortable, happy, watered, fed people are the least likely to put up with either the Wahibists or the old-line Baathists.

 

[corplinx]

Comfortable, happy, watered, fed people are the least likely to put up with either the Wahibists or the old-line Baathists.

Me and JJ agree in a thread? I think this is a first.

 

[jj]

Me and JJ agree in a thread? I think this is a first.

No, I think not. There are many things I agree with you about, and I've said so before.

You probably didn't believe me.

On this issue, I'm afraid it's not going to work, but it would be awfully nice for the whole world if it did work out.

 

[Gem]

I watched the end of the History channel Nazi guerillas after world war 2. They argued, just before the News of Saddam being captured, that if Hitler had survived like Saddam and Osama, and was able to get a radio, the resistance in Germany would have continued on much longer.

But this is different. The country isn't divided in two by two nations (a very good thing). They AREN'T tired of fighting. Fact is many beleive they didn't fight at all. But Germany fought for 6 years, and was able to hold on 3 fronts for a good while. Let's just say Iraq has a lot of manpower available for resistance.

The big questions are how Iraqis blame their ills in the occupation? Are there outside forces helping them, but out of reach of the US military? Can these outside forces smuggle weapons and explosives to continue a certain level of resistance? Can cells communicate with each other? How high does the chain of command go, and how much power does it have?

We can't really answer those on a forum, since we don't have access to what the military has.

My personal opinion is that they'll fight for a cause, not someone. So yes, the resistance is going to continue.

Gem