The dismal science, Long Wave

[IllegalArgument]

There's a fellow over at www.infidels.org boards who posts alot about economic issues. He refers to the Long Wave theory often. Just wondering if anyone hear has heard of this stuff and does it have any validitity.

Here's a site about the man who invented the theory.

http://www.kondratyev.com/reference/theory_explained.htm

 

[CBL4]

It sounds like biorhythms for the economy.

The world changes too much in 53 years for there to be any reason for cycles of that length. Compare 2004 with 1951 with 1898. I am sure that someone can find similarity between the internet, cutting edge cars from Detroit and telephones but it would be meaningless babble.

If you would like some better example, 1944 WWII in full force with rationing vs. 1997 US economy is booming. 1948, post war boom vs. 2001 high tech bubble bursting.

CBL