The cautious Obama resurgence?

Undesired Walrus

Penultimate Amazing
Undesired Walrus
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Apr 10, 2007
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Interesting bit of news:

In a mid-November survey, when asked which candidate they were more likely to support, registered voters gave Mitt Romney a lead of 4 percentage points over Obama, 51% to 47%. The mid-December survey found an 11-point switch; Obama now has a 52%-45% edge over Romney. Against Newt Gingrich, Obama has a 16-point lead, 56%-40%. (Ironically, the one Republican candidate who does as well against Obama as Romney is Rep Ron Paul, trailing by the same 52%-45% margin.)
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http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html

Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?
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I can't comment on the tax issue, but would suggest, as an outsider looking in, that Obama has to continue being the calm and reasonable candidate, and let the other candidates continue to come out with what in this country would be "Borisisms". It isn't exactly that all the other candidates are in any way stupid (though, erm, some give that impression in most elections) it is more their choice of phrasing, when reduced down to a soundbite, which is all most of the rest of the world will hear, sounds silly. Even the greatest speech suffers when reduced to a soundbite, and frankly, some of the other candidates are making bad choices for selling their views, and allowing Obama to be the voice of reason even when he doesnt need to be.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Interesting bit of news:


http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html

Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?
Click to expand...

Actually, I don't believe that public opinion has really moved that much. These polls have errors of +/- 4%, so 8 points (or possibly even more) of that swing could be just polling errors. I say "possibly even more" because the given range is not a range of 100% certainty but 95% confidence.
 
I'm a bit more curious about getting the House to swing Democratic again. I think Obama can run a successful campaign if they just do it right.
 
daenku32 said:
I'm a bit more curious about getting the House to swing Democratic again. I think Obama can run a successful campaign if they just do it right.
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I see this;

Congress is despised.
Most GOP incumbents will have no primary challenger.
GOP controls the house.

If Republicans and Democrats are equally despised just for being Congresscritters and are voted out and replaced by their opposite polarity, this will translate into a net gain for Democrats.
 
Let's take your "equally despised" thesis at face value. There are 23 Dem senators up for election and 10 Reps (I think those numbers are right...they're at least close). Under your scenario, 12 Ds turn R while 5 Rs turn D. The Senate flips to Rep control.
 
Are these polls at all reliable before the (republican) primary season is over? I would have thought not, until there is no ambiguity about who is running, and after whoever that is starts appealing to the centre rather than the centre of their party
 
Francesca R said:
Are these polls at all reliable before the (republican) primary season is over? I would have thought not, until there is no ambiguity about who is running, and after whoever that is starts appealing to the centre rather than the centre of their party
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Right!

Even polling individuals vs incumbent gives a slightly skewed position as some primary die-hards who swore they would sit it out if their candidate failed to be nominated soften and vote for their rivals.
 
They are reliable as a reflection of current thinking but, as Ben notes, they aren't of much value at all regarding next November.
 
It's still an average of opinion polls. I think traded contracts are more accurate. There are papers about this but I don't have them to hand.
 
Right now Romney is getting a pass on his days as a corporate raider. I don't think that will be the case during the general election when his past as a job killer is going to hurt him big time.

Daredelvis
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Interesting bit of news:


http://edition.cnn.com/2011/12/22/opinion/gergen-obama-resurgence/index.html

Why is this payroll tax saga proving to be a vote winner for Obama, and how does he build on that for 2012?
Click to expand...

Well, this issue is proving to be a very good way for Obama to show the electorate just how incredibly stupid, selfish, and dishonest many Republicans are once they have a bit of authority.

Obama really does not have to build on this issue, since the Republicans have already done so much to build it for him. After all, one just has to look at what Bohener recently said about this issue:

"Sometimes it is difficult to know what is the right thing to do."

Which is an amazing statement since so many Republicans (and all of the Tea Party/Tea Bagger people) constantly claim how they always know what is the right thing to do, whereas Democrats do not have any idea of what is the right thing to do.
 
daredelvis said:
Right now Romney is getting a pass on his days as a corporate raider. I don't think that will be the case during the general election when his past as a job killer is going to hurt him big time.

Daredelvis
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Oh, don't worry.

If there are legitimate reasons for criticism like that one, every single one of them will be the target of a rolling series of attack ads.

Obama has an amazing war chest right now, and he is needing to spend very little of it.
 
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