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Piscivore

Smelling fishy
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May 18, 2004
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One of the things I half-believed, when I was still "open minded" about certain things, was that I could influence, or at least "predict" Simpsons episodes. Not reliably, but I would think of a Simpsons episode, and it would come on that night or the next.

I thankfully came to realise that:
A) I have an embarassingly large accumulation of Simpsons knowledge ,
2) I have a natural proclivity to compare events to cultural references, and
3) I watch two Simpsons reruns each night.

I later learned of the human tendency to notice "hits" and not "misses", and that cinched it- no powers. :(

However- if I had kept a log of times I "thought" spontaneously of a particular episode, and I kept track at the same time of every episode I saw, what would a "better than chance" result look like, percentage-wise?
 
I noticed a very similar thing once. I noticed that I would be thinking about a commercial and * BANG * commercial comes on.

Than I realized that it was the same commercial because I watch the same show every day, and they have basically the same commercials every day at around the same time
 
Police departments have started to recognize these "psychic powers": how our minds put together specific clues that may not be obvious. More and more often I'm hearing advice along the lines "if something feels wrong about a situation, even if you can't see what it is, trust your instincts".

The data is real, but still be completely unnoticed on a conscious level. All part of why it's so hard to debunk psychic claims, and why it is so common for well-meaning people to be self-deluded into thinking they're psychic.
 
It's amazing how much mileage one can get out of the phrase:

'Correlation does not equal causation'.

I'm thinking I might get it tattooed to my forehead...


There was a great exchange in the Simpsons one time - remember when that bear escaped and Homer insisted that a 'Bear Patrol' be instigated?

(I'm totally paraphrasing here)

Homer: See? The bear patrol is working perfectly. No bears!
Lisa: Just because there are no bears doesn't mean it's working. Look - I could equally claim that this rock keeps away tigers.
Homer: <pauses> Lisa, I want to buy your rock.
 

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