So, did Bush LIE about WMDs, or was he WRONG about them?

Skeptic

Banned
Joined
Jul 25, 2001
Messages
18,312
In favor of the "he was wrong" theory, is the fact that the CIA and every foreign intelligence agency considered it the case that Iraq did, in fact, have WMD, and that Tenent told the president it was a "slam dunk" case.

In favor of the "he deliberately lied" theory, we have, well, not much, except for the claim that Bush was looking for any excuse to invade Iraq to settle the score with Saddam.

Three problems with that theory:

a). There isn't any convincing evidene that "settling scores with Saddam" was Bush's motivation.

b). If this WAS his motivation, and he KNEW there are no WMDs, why would he choose that excuse for the war? Why would he use, deliberately, a reason he knew was false--and that was bound to be discovered as false precisely in the case that the US DID invade Iraq?

The two answers to (b) seem to be, (1) he thought no other reason would convince Americans for back the war, and (2) he would somehow "plant" WMDs after the invasion succeded.

Both of these don't hold water. First of all, Americans often support US military action against nations who are no direct threat to themselves and have no WMDs, on moral or other grounds--as in the case of the removal of Milosevic by Clinton, or the bombing of Libya by Reagan, both of which had very high support.

Certainly after 9/11, many Americans would be even more willing to support preemptive war. 9/11, after all, was not caused by WMDs, but by fanatical suicide bombers--and there was no doubt Saddam supported fanatical suicide bombers (and praised 9/11 to the skies on Iraqi TV, for that matter). Support of suicide bombers and terrorist groups alone would have been enough to convince the American public.

As for the seond, this is simply another "Bush is evil" conspiracy theory without a shread of evidence. It is extremely unlikely that such a feat could be achieved without a single person of the thousands involved speaking out, and, in any case, it was obviously NOT done as NO WMDs were found.

So why, exactly, are people so sure that "Bush lied" about WMDs, when it is obvious he had no reason to intentionally lie and only stands to lose if he does?
 
Skeptic said:
b). If this WAS his motivation, and he KNEW there are no WMDs, why would he choose that excuse for the war? Why would he use, deliberately, a reason he knew was false--and that was bound to be discovered as false precisely in the case that the US DID invade Iraq?
Just an opinion of course, but the answers to "why?" are many:

1) He knew that it wouldn't matter. His supporters would defend him regardless (you've read this forum right? :)).
2) He knew the country would support the president, at least initially, in times of "war". (we did) That would give him time to shift attention away from WMD and towards the "freedom, liberty and democracy thing" (he has, and his supporters bought it). Oh, and Bush use misdirection? Remember OBL?
3) He knew he could successfully use the "with us or with the terrorists" line against internal dissent (he has)
4) He knew the seeds of doubt would linger. Not finding any WMD doesn't mean we won't someday (doubts still linger, not sure, Cheney will remind us every few weeks).
5) The war (IMHO again) won the election for Bush. Without the war, Bush loses by a larger margin then he won. Sure his supporters would blame everyone but Bush for jobs, the economy, etc., but the ever popular undecided vote would have probably swung to Kerry. With the war, the safe choice (remember those seeds) is the incumbent. Especially when you are hammering the opponent with soft on terrorism nonsense.

Do I have any evidence to back this up. All I gots are da fact that the first 4 items happened. Those 4 allowed the real reason, #5 to happen. The Bush team has done an amazing job of isolating him from anything negative.

Hey, I don't know if he did any of this deliberately, or it just fell out that way, or his "handlers" meticulously planned it. Regardless of how it happened, it happened. Bush started a war on false pretenses and received a "mandate" for his efforts. It really doesn't matter if he lied or was simply wrong. Think about those choices for a minute. We re-elected a man who either lied about reasons for going to war or was wrong! Damn, he's good, That's why.....
 
Skeptic said:
a). There isn't any convincing evidene that "settling scores with Saddam" was Bush's motivation.
What sort of evidence would convince you? Aren't you making up your mind in advance?

b). If this WAS his motivation, and he KNEW there are no WMDs, why would he choose that excuse for the war? Why would he use, deliberately, a reason he knew was false--and that was bound to be discovered as false precisely in the case that the US DID invade Iraq?
Because since the entire intelligence community's telephone game believed that Iraq had weapons, Bush could easily escape blame. Oh, and the world is a safer place without Saddam.

As for the seond, this is simply another "Bush is evil" conspiracy theory without a shread of evidence.
As opposed to the ones that have plenty of evidence.

So why, exactly, are people so sure that "Bush lied" about WMDs, when it is obvious he had no reason to intentionally lie and only stands to lose if he does?
Lose what? The war? The election? Party control of all three branches of government?
 
Skeptic:
In favor of the "he was wrong" theory, is the fact that the CIA and every foreign intelligence agency considered it the case that Iraq did, in fact, have WMD, and that Tenent told the president it was a "slam dunk" case.
As I recall, the great majority of foreign intelligence agencies were supplied with their info about WMDs by the US. There was no independent evidence for WMDs and Bush had to know that. Therefore I am extremely skeptical of the accuracy of your statement.

Hey - wait a minute - aren't you George Bush in real life?
 
It was either outright lies or blinding incompetence. Either way, Bush is to blame.
 
The word "lie" complicates matters and often gets this discussion bogged down in semantics over what the meaning of "lie" is. It's one of those words that has many meanings, and people start arguing in circles because one person is insisting on using one definition and one is insisting on using another.

But, yes, I believe Bush and his administration, through their speeches, led the US public to believe things about WMD which were not true, and that this misleading was deliberate. There are many reasons I believe that, but one of the foremost is the thing which Bush didn't get wrong.

One of the scare tactics the Bush administration used was to raise the spectre that Hussein had tried to obtain material for building nuclear weapons from Africa. US intelligence assessments indicated this was not true; but a British intelligence assessment (which the better-funded, better-staffed, better-equipped US intelligence analysts were aware of, and had concluded was wrong) thought it might be true.

In his speech, Bush carefully words the claim to say the British government had learned rather than to say that we had learned, because the latter would have been false but the former was, technically, true.

Was Bush unaware of this? No. It was reported (and has not been denied or refuted) that a previous draft of the speech had included a flat assertion that Hussein tried to obtain nuclear material, and the CIA in vetting the speech refused to approve that statement since it flew in the face of their findings. That was when Bush's people came up with the British have learned ploy, which the CIA agreed was true in a narrow but literal sense and thus could pass muster.

A person making an honest mistake generally botches up what they say. They get the facts wrong, and when you re-read their words you can see that. It takes deliberate effort to come up with a statement that sounds like it means one thing (Hussein was trying to buy yellowcake), actually means another (British intelligence mistakenly concluded he was trying to buy yellowcake, even though we knew better), and yet is worded in such a way that the wording can be defended after the deception is exposed as technically correct.

It's like when a person is on trial for murder. They can offer as a defense that they didn't do it, or they can offer as a defense that they did it but it was justified, but they can't (reasonably) offer both. Likewise, one can either offer up the defense that Bush's statement was not a lie because he was honestly unaware that the meaning people would read into his words was false, or one can offer up the defense that his statement was not a lie because he worded it to be technically correct, but one can't (reasonably) argue both. Bush and many of his defenders opted to push line two, that he was technically correct. That, to me, rules out a line one defense that it was not a deliberate act of deception.
 
I pretty much agree with what Nova said, but let me put out a thought slightly similar.

Suppose you sincerely believe that something is true, but you know that not everyone believes it. You have access to a lot of information that others don't have about this thing. When trying to persuade others, you only show them the evidence that would tend to make people agree with you.

Maybe you go one step further than that. Maybe you say, "I sure wish I could show you all the information I have. I can't do that, but if I could, you wouldn't have any doubt."

Is that a lie?
 
Skeptic said:
In favor of the "he was wrong" theory, is the fact that the CIA and every foreign intelligence agency considered it the case that Iraq did, in fact, have WMD, and that Tenent told the president it was a "slam dunk" case.

In favor of the "he deliberately lied" theory, we have, well, not much, except for the claim that Bush was looking for any excuse to invade Iraq to settle the score with Saddam.

Three problems with that theory:

a). There isn't any convincing evidene that "settling scores with Saddam" was Bush's motivation.

b). If this WAS his motivation, and he KNEW there are no WMDs, why would he choose that excuse for the war? Why would he use, deliberately, a reason he knew was false--and that was bound to be discovered as false precisely in the case that the US DID invade Iraq?

The two answers to (b) seem to be, (1) he thought no other reason would convince Americans for back the war, and (2) he would somehow "plant" WMDs after the invasion succeded.

Both of these don't hold water. First of all, Americans often support US military action against nations who are no direct threat to themselves and have no WMDs, on moral or other grounds--as in the case of the removal of Milosevic by Clinton, or the bombing of Libya by Reagan, both of which had very high support.

Certainly after 9/11, many Americans would be even more willing to support preemptive war. 9/11, after all, was not caused by WMDs, but by fanatical suicide bombers--and there was no doubt Saddam supported fanatical suicide bombers (and praised 9/11 to the skies on Iraqi TV, for that matter). Support of suicide bombers and terrorist groups alone would have been enough to convince the American public.

As for the seond, this is simply another "Bush is evil" conspiracy theory without a shread of evidence. It is extremely unlikely that such a feat could be achieved without a single person of the thousands involved speaking out, and, in any case, it was obviously NOT done as NO WMDs were found.

So why, exactly, are people so sure that "Bush lied" about WMDs, when it is obvious he had no reason to intentionally lie and only stands to lose if he does?

There were intelligence agency workers in the US, GB and Australia choking on their coffee at the claims that were made. The output, as Tenet showed with his disgraceful contribution, was not, "What are the facts", but "What do you want us to tell you". I have provided links to demonstrate this previously.

Lets just take a simple statistical approach. What are the odds that every claim Powell made at the UN was false?
 
Re: Re: So, did Bush LIE about WMDs, or was he WRONG about them?

Originally posted by DavidJames
Just an opinion of course, but the answers to "why?" are many:

1) He knew that it wouldn't matter. His supporters would defend him regardless (you've read this forum right? :)).


True, but it begs the question "why".

2) He knew the country would support the president, at least initially, in times of "war". (we did) That would give him time to shift attention away from WMD and towards the "freedom, liberty and democracy thing" (he has, and his supporters bought it). Oh, and Bush use misdirection? Remember OBL?

Ditto

3) He knew he could successfully use the "with us or with the terrorists" line against internal dissent (he has)

ditto

4) He knew the seeds of doubt would linger. Not finding any WMD doesn't mean we won't someday (doubts still linger, not sure, Cheney will remind us every few weeks).

ditto

5) The war (IMHO again) won the election for Bush. Without the war, Bush loses by a larger margin then he won. Sure his supporters would blame everyone but Bush for jobs, the economy, etc., but the ever popular undecided vote would have probably swung to Kerry. With the war, the safe choice (remember those seeds) is the incumbent. Especially when you are hammering the opponent with soft on terrorism nonsense.

No. He would have won in a landslide without Iraq. Most of the talking points that Kerry used would have been trashcanned. Iraq has done him no good whatsoever.

Do I have any evidence to back this up. All I gots are da fact that the first 4 items happened. Those 4 allowed the real reason, #5 to happen. The Bush team has done an amazing job of isolating him from anything negative.

None of the things you wrote are reasons. Are you suggesting he went to war to win the election? If so it almost lost it for him.

Hey, I don't know if he did any of this deliberately, or it just fell out that way, or his "handlers" meticulously planned it.

Rubbish. Having watched political crap for some time I am convinced that humans are particularly inept critters. No one is that good at "planning".

Regardless of how it happened, it happened. Bush started a war on false pretenses and received a "mandate" for his efforts. It really doesn't matter if he lied or was simply wrong. Think about those choices for a minute. We re-elected a man who either lied about reasons for going to war or was wrong! Damn, he's good, That's why.....

Hardly a mandate but what you say is true. The unfortunate thing is that the Dems are very, very effing stupid. You watch, they will commit ritual suicide by nominating Hillary against a massed voice chorus of Kumbya. They will go down in flames and then blame Bush (or at least someone else) and Teddy Kennedy will swill another quart of Jack Danials and mutter inchoherently. You want a real conspiracy? I'll give you one. The Democrats have been paid off. Either that or they are stupid. [/QUOTE]
 
He knew it would not matter, his supporters would defend him regardless... the war (IMHO again) won the election for Bush.

Are you kidding???

Not only did the missing WMD did matter, they mattered crucially! They damn near cost Bush the election, as the democrats essentially spoke of nothing but Iraq and the missing WMDs during their campaign. As for "his supporters defedning him regardless", that's beside the point--they would have supported the war in Iraq without WMD charges anyway, and in any case the point was not to convince his supporters, but the public at large.

You might as well say that, when Bush released those pictures of Cheney eating babies, he KNEW that they were fake, but he figured that a). Cheney's supporters would defend Cheney regardless, and b). it wouldn't matter at all anyway, since despite the democrat's campaign having all those nasty "baby eater" commercials, he was confident the baby-eating photos will, at the end, win the election for him.

I'm sorry, but this simply doesn't make sense.
 
Skeptic said:
b). If this WAS his motivation, and he KNEW there are no WMDs, why would he choose that excuse for the war? Why would he use, deliberately, a reason he knew was false--and that was bound to be discovered as false precisely in the case that the US DID invade Iraq?

If I was a suspicious type, I'd suggest that he chose that reason for a couple of good reasons: First, that it was plausible, and second that it would have resonance with the American public.

Although it would be discovered to be false, that wouldn't matter because everyone would be able to look at how splendid and happy Iraq was without the tyrant, and not forget about how they'd got there - ends justifying the means, and all that.

Personally, I don't think he did lie about it. I think he genuinely did believe that they were there, even (perhaps) to the extent of discounting some evidence to the contrary
 
Well, if Bush lied - that is, if there were no WMDs and he knew it - then it leads us to the conclusion that the CIA must have been providing him with good intelligence. in which case, why are we going through all this intelligence reform nonsense? If the CIA was telling him there were no WMDs, why is everyone saying they screwed up?

If, OTOH, the CIA was telling him and his predecessors and Congress that Saddam had WMDs, and we'd seen him actually use them (viz. Iran war, viz. attacks on the Kurds), then even if he no longer had them, Bush was not lying when he made the claim that Saddam had them. He might have been mistaken, but a mistake is not the same as a lie. If you believe it is, admit to your boss that you were lying when you said your new software program was ready to go to production and it turned out there was a bug you hadn't caught.

And let me say it again: Everybody thought Saddam had WMDs until we went in and couldn't find them. Even y'all on the left who were opposed to the war thought he had WMDs - or don't you remember trying to justify your opposition to the war by saying there would be tens of thousands of dead American soldiers because of Saddam's chemical weapons? Were y'all lying? Or were you simply mistaken?

And Saddam did have WMDs (again, viz. Iran, viz. Kurds), and you know it. The only issue is, what did he do with them?

That, we still don't know. But don't go down the intellectually dishonest road of saying he never had them and Bush lied. That's a crock, doubled.
 
Bush had already made up mind about everything before any intelligence was presented. I don't remember the person's name, but I recall an interview clip of someone who was involved in presenting intelligence to the president who stated that Bush refused to even listen to any intelligence (of which there was plenty) that denied Iraq's possession of WMDs or that denied a connection between Saddam and Al Qaida. He flat out said that he only wanted to know information that appeared to confirm these things rather than refute them. I don't know if you call that lying or being wrong, but what he did was to decide his position beforehand and arrange things in such a way as to make it appear that he acted appropriately on the intelligence he was given. That is deliberately attempting to absolve yourself of responsibility by pretending not to know certain facts. If that isn't equivalent to lying, then I'd like to know what it is.
 
Ian Osborne said:
It was either outright lies or blinding incompetence. Either way, Bush is to blame.

Yep. Also notice how Bush is held to a lower standard than the typical high school student, in that, despite his incompetence and/or lying, people (idiots), still defend his blunders and allow him to continue. It's almost as if incompetence is acceptable as long you agree with the politician who's incompetent. Not a very favorable commentary on the party that prides itself on "personal responsibility".
 
BPSCG said:
And let me say it again: Everybody thought Saddam had WMDs until we went in and couldn't find them. Even y'all on the left who were opposed to the war thought he had WMDs - or don't you remember trying to justify your opposition to the war by saying there would be tens of thousands of dead American soldiers because of Saddam's chemical weapons? Were y'all lying? Or were you simply mistaken?

IIRC, many on the left (and also the libertarians) said he probably did have WMDs, but not in the quantities suggested by the right. And in any case, don't you think it's reasonable to expect Bush and cronies to be better informed on these matters than the ordinary man in the street? When Tony Blair said he'd seen documents proving Saddam was armed to the teeth with bio bombs and poison gasses, he didn't share them with us, y'know...
 
Skeptic said:
In favor of the "he was wrong" theory, is the fact that the CIA and every foreign intelligence agency considered it the case that Iraq did, in fact, have WMD, and that Tenent told the president it was a "slam dunk" case.
This is just false. Do you have a set of historical blinders on? IF it was a slam dunk, and every foriegn intelligence agency agreed, then why was the UN not involved? Why did other nations, for example, Canada - which probably has more to lose than any other nation economically if it pi$$es of the US - not support the invasion, for lack of proof of WMD's?
 
Re: Re: So, did Bush LIE about WMDs, or was he WRONG about them?

Thanz said:
This is just false. Do you have a set of historical blinders on? IF it was a slam dunk, and every foriegn intelligence agency agreed, then why was the UN not involved?

Why indeed. Tell me about the last time that the UN "got involved" in removing a despot? I really don't think that the UN's actions or inactions are indicative of anything at all.

Why do you think France knifed Powell in the back on the UN vote? I think that one can make a prima facia case that payoffs helped preclude the UN from acting. We shall see the result of the various investigations.

I won't repost the tiresome list of quotes from both sides of the asile in this country, all stating that Saddam had WMD's. It was believed.
 
Re: Re: So, did Bush LIE about WMDs, or was he WRONG about them?

Thanz said:
This is just false. Do you have a set of historical blinders on? IF it was a slam dunk, and every foriegn intelligence agency agreed, then why was the UN not involved?

Do you have historical blinders on? The UN has only sanctioned 2 wars in history, 2!! The Korean War and Gulf War 1. This idea that the UN is the final arbiter of who goes to war and when they go to war is a myth. The case for Bush's incompetence/lying is good enough without dragging the UN (an organization with less credibility than Bush) into it.
 
BPSCG said:


And let me say it again: Everybody thought Saddam had WMDs until we went in and couldn't find them. Even y'all on the left who were opposed to the war thought he had WMDs - or don't you remember trying to justify your opposition to the war by saying there would be tens of thousands of dead American soldiers because of Saddam's chemical weapons? Were y'all lying? Or were you simply mistaken?

I believed it because I trusted the President wouldn't play fast and loose with that particular subject.

It appears I was wrong. A sad day when trusting a leader in a time of war is later used as a political argument that those who trust share in the blame for the leader's mistake (or the blame for his lies, depending on how you look at it)

Personal responsibility indeed.
 
Ian Osborne said:
IIRC, many on the left (and also the libertarians) said he probably did have WMDs, but not in the quantities suggested by the right.
No, just in sufficient quantities to cause terrible U.S. casualties. Sorry, you don't wriggle off the hook that easily.
And in any case, don't you think it's reasonable to expect Bush and cronies to be better informed on these matters than the ordinary man in the street?
I expect him to be exactly as well informed as the people who get paid to find out tell him. When the CIA Director George Tenet tells him finding WMDs would be a "slam dunk" (direct quote), what's he supposed to do? Tell Tenet, "I think you're lying"? On what basis?

You can say there was some conflicting evidence, and maybe there was, but the fact is, you never have perfect intelligence and you have to make decisions with that in mind.

Just for grins and giggles, can you point me to anyone outside of Iraq who, before the war, argued there were no WMDs?
 

Back
Top Bottom