This is a placeholder post for the spin-off discussion from the Rouser put up or shut up thread. The spin-off focus is on smallpox vaccine. I have asked BTox, via PM to paste into here the pertinent posts so that we all have a common starting base.
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First post (SteveGrenard)
Wow, that's a record. Thirty-seven minutes until the first demand for a response.
I agree that the number of deaths and serious complications are infitessimally small compared to the lives saved by vaccines and anti-sera. This is a no-brainer. However, it is not quite correct to say there has never been one
single death traceable to innoculation with a vaccine or anti-serum.
And the risks vrs benefit ratio of any large scale vaccine program must be weighed as we have seen recently when the administration in Washington hysterically started calling for mass smallpox innoculations and a majority of the medical community declined after thinking it over. If there was a real threat the majority would have taken the vaccination.
Anaphylactic shock can and has caused deaths in people hypersensitive to some of the antigenic constituents of many vaccine products over the years. In addition the following website has an extensive mainstream bibliography on this subject. Having said this,and having found these citations, I still would not forgo vaccination against a potentially disabling or life threatening disease in persons (at risk) and in areas where serious vaccine preventable diseases have the potential to occur.
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This is a collection of medical journal articles dealing with the dangers and ineffectiveness of vaccines. We will be adding more so check back to see what has been added. If you cannot find them or can not get to a medical library please contact us to get copies. "
http://home.sprynet.com/~gyrene/medart.htm
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Last edited by SteveGrenard on 12-30-2003 at 05:51 PM
Second post (NoZed)
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
Wow, that's a record. Thirty-seven minutes until the first demand for a response.
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Unfortunately, you are no where near the record for erecting a giant strawman to burn down -- over 5 hrs.
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I agree that the number of deaths and serious complications are infitessimally small compared to the lives saved by vaccines and anti-sera. This is a no-brainer. However, it is not quite correct to say there has never been one single death traceable to innoculation with a vaccine or anti-serum.
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Perhaps that's why Prester John didn't say that.
Indeed, his question appears to be about a claim from Rouser:
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Rouser you have said that you think there is at least one, probably more, vaccines that do more harm than good.
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Good - you're going to do the cut&pasting? I have to get going. This is one such simulation I remember reading - called Dark Winter. I'm sure there were others, but this is a start:
Source: ucla epidemiology dark winter
In the simulation, 12 members of the National Security Council are informed that smallpox has broken out: 20 cases confirmed in Oklahoma, with reports of more in Georgia and Pennsylvania. (They will later discover it was released in three shopping malls.) They are told the facts: Smallpox has a 30% fatality rate, there is no treatment, and it spreads from person to person. The country maintains just 15.4 million doses of vaccine.
The NSC chooses to vaccinate only essential personnel and anyone who has had contact with the infected, a strategy known as ring vaccination. By six days into the epidemic, 2,000 cases have been reported in 15 states, with 300 deaths. The disease spreads to Britain, as well as Canada and Mexico, which demand U.S. vaccine serum. Only 1.25 million doses remain, and their distribution becomes violent.
International borders are closed, and food shortages follow. In many states the public health system is overwhelmed and care deteriorates. Civil liberties are suspended: Schools close, some public gatherings are forbidden, states limit travel. Drug companies can't make more vaccine for five weeks.
By 13 days in, 16,000 cases are reported in 25 states -- 14,000 in the past 24 hours alone. One thousand people have died and 10 countries have outbreaks. The vaccine is gone, the economy is faltering and residents are fleeing infected areas. A panicked public demands forcible quarantine of victims and their contacts, though by this time that has become logistically impossible.
Then comes the blackmail. Newspapers receive a letter demanding the removal of U.S. forces from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf within a week. The letter threatens a new smallpox attack, combined with anthrax and the plague, if the U.S doesn't comply. It contains a genetic fingerprint matching the smallpox strain, proving its veracity.
Dark Winter's simulation ends at this point, though by the time the virus runs its course the U.S., in a worst-case scenario, faced three million cases and one million deaths. Much of what the country values -- civil liberties, world power, economic security, access to health care, equal treatment under the law -- has been damaged along the way.
Source: ucla epidemiology dark winter
BTox said:Good - you're going to do the cut&pasting? I have to get going
Arggggh! Me too! I'll do what I can as quickly as I can.
Post whatever (SteveGrenard)
Again, if you read what I said --- and this is in response to the question, you would have to weigh the risk vrs benefit ratio. Clearly in some cases risks outweigh benefits. I don't know if this is what Rouser meant so we have to wait to hear back from him on this. It is not worth one or a hundred deaths in a million innoculations to vaccinate against a non-existent threat.
It would also help if you read the citations I linked and the annotations on some of those.
Espritch:
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Clearly in some cases risks outweigh benefits.
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That is precisely what Prester John was asking for in the first post; an example where the risks of vaccination clearly outweigh the benefits. Since Rouser hasn’t yet seen fit to reply and since you’ve indicated that you have knowledge of such instances, perhaps you could provide us with the specific example (or examples) upon which you based this assertion.
SteveGrenard:
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Originally posted by espritch
That is precisely what Prester John was asking for in the first post; an example where the risks of vaccination clearly outweigh the benefits. Since Rouser hasn’t yet seen fit to reply and since you’ve indicated that you have knowledge of such instances, perhaps you could provide us with the specific example (or examples) upon which you based this assertion.
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I already did. See the Administration's (I mean the Bush administration's} hysterical plea to vaccinate the whole country starting with first responders and medical personnel for smallpox and the medical comunity's response. I also provided an extensive mainstream biblio documenting the known deleterious
sequelae of some kinds of vaccination.
If you live in Manhattan and there is no smallpox or yellow fever there would you get your kids vaccinated for it cause the President says so? I don't think so. The risks outweigh the benefits which in this example would be none. This is like the story of the guy walking around Stamford, CT with an elephant gun. When asked why he was carrying such a weapon he said: "Why to kill elephants of course." So the questionner said "But there are no elephants here." The gun toters reply: "You see, it works."
Enuf said.
BillHoyt
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
I already did. See the Administration's (I mean the Bush administration's} hysterical plea to vaccinate the whole country starting with first responders and medical personnel for smallpox and the medical comunity's response. I also provided an extensive mainstream biblio documenting the known deleterious
sequelae of some kinds of vaccination.
If you live in Manhattan and there is no smallpox or yellow fever there would you get your kids vaccinated for it cause the President says so? I don't think so. The risks outweigh the benefits which in this example would be none. This is like the story of the guy walking around Stamford, CT with an elephant gun. When asked why he was carrying such a weapon he said: "Why to kill elephants of course." So the questionner said "But there are no elephants here." The gun toters reply: "You see, it works."
Enuf said.
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What would you think, Steve, of a farmer who, in the midst of a plentiful harvest says "I see no end of food. We shall eat the seed corn this year!" Should the police in a neighborhood free of violent crime turn in their guns and bullets? After all, why bother if you see no crime? How about turning off your headlights at night when you see a clear, straight stretch of highway ahead? When I was a child, I used to convince myself that hiding under my blankie would protect me from boogie men. After all, if I couldn't see them, they couldn't see me.
Now I daresay that most of us here have grown up quite a bit since then, and recognize that threats that are not immediate are still threats. We also know that such threats can and are assessed rationally from the available scientific data.
The medical community's response to the vaccination call is immaterial. That is the fallacy of argumentum ad populem. You line from your previous post ("If there was a real threat the majority would have taken the vaccination.") is even more preposterous. It couples two fallacies together; the aforementioned argumentum ad populem and affirming the consequent.
SteveGrenard:
It isremarkable how some so-called "skeptics" here resort to philosophical arguments when scientific ones don't jive with their personal points of view (e.g. argument to popularity). This is an ongoing and malignant problem. You cannot fight every thing you disagree with by attributing it to some fallacy or another. It is just absurd ....plus you place your faith in science but then invoke philosophy. Weird.
Popularity has nothing to do with the fact that out of hundreds of thousands of heath care workers, only 38,000 nationwide took the vaccina vaccine last year in response to advisories it was essential to do so.
That decision was based not on popularity but on informed judgement and indisputable facts. Since Hoyt was apparently not aware of the deliberations don't expect him to understand this. The fact that "skeptics," in defending their vaccine policy would ignore basic medical science and claim an anti-vaccine decision by a majority of informed health care workers was a popularity contest is what is preposterous. I understand they have taken up the cause of fighting zealots who say no to vaccines at any price but they need to temper their arguments with a dose of reality, at least now and then.
Here's what science knows:
1. The proposed vaccine is vaccina, a live virus and close relative of the cowpox virus Jenner used to prevent his milking maids from developing smallpox. Most of today's vaccinations use dead or inactivated viruses, making them less apt to cause serious side effects. And because the proposed smallpox vaccination uses a live virus, people who get it can actually infect others with it. This weighed heavily in the decision of heath care workers to opt out of the program.
2. This live virus vaccine is the most dangerous vaccine still in use. According to the CDC it kills up to 52 people per
million.
In the absence of a truly credible smallpox threat, this is simply not worth it. See below how a credible threat can be dealt with and how vaccination then would be worth the risk.
3. If there was a terrorist "smallpox" attack .... would it be as deadly as it was 50+ years ago? No.
In pre-antibiotic times, smallpox killed up to 30% of those infected.
Today mortality would be lower since most smallpox deaths occurred as a result of secondary bacterial infections which erupted on the pox sores causing overwhelming sepsis.
Antibiotics easily treat these infections. And today even we have anti-viral agents (e.g. cidofovir) which predictably would be effective against the disease itself although they have never been tried as such agents were developed after smallpox became, for all intents and purposes,extinct.
4. Also, it is well established you can be vaccinated within four days of exposure and prevent becoming infected.
So the risks of pre-emptive mass vaccination presents an unacceptable and unnecessary risk of exposure to side effects, yes, a small % of deaths, and the transmission of the disease to the immuno-compromised, especially patients who are going to fare far worse than the immuno-competent recipients of the vaccine.
5. The last time smallpox hit New York was in 1947. A businessman from Mexico came down with the disease, taking 12 other people down with him. Two died.
The city prevented an epidemic by vaccinating 6 million people in one month. Side effects from the vaccine were identified as having killed six people, an acceptable risk given the threat. Others may have died but they were not identified so we can't point to them. But if the CDC's number (52 per million)is right, then 300 people died from the vaccine. We just don't know. But remember the city managed to innoculate 6 million after the "outbreak" occurred, a truly credible threat. Only those two early cases died of smallpox.
Last edited by SteveGrenard on 12-30-2003 at 10:59 PM
BillHoyt:
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
It isremarkable how some so-called "skeptics" here resort to philosophical arguments when scientific ones don't jive with their personal points of view (e.g. argument to popularity). This is an ongoing and malignant problem. You cannot fight every thing you disagree with by attributing it to some fallacy or another. It is just absurd ....plus you place your faith in science but then invoke philosophy. Weird.
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It is logic, sir, pure and simple. The only thing weird here is that you fail to grasp it. It has nothing to do with points of view. If an argument is fallacious it is fallacious.
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Popularity has nothing to do with the fact that out of hundreds of thousands of heath care workers, only 38,000 nationwide took the vaccina vaccine last year in response to advisories it was essential to do so.
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That is an argumentum ad populem. That they failed to take the vaccine says nothing about the safety or efficacy of the vaccine. They may claim so. You may claim so. But you must present the data about vaccine safety and efficacy, not data about any group's reactions to it. That you fail to understand this, even when pointed out to repeatedly speaks volumes, glaringly and blaringly.
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That decision was based not on popularity but on informed judgement and indisputable facts. Since Hoyt was apparently not aware of the deliberations don't expect him to understand this. The fact that "skeptics," in defending their vaccine policy would ignore basic medical science and claim an anti-vaccine decision by a majority of informed health care workers was a popularity contest is what is preposterous. I understand they have taken up the cause of fighting zealots who say no to vaccines at any price but they need to temper their arguments with a dose of reality, at least now and then.
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Grenard is apparently unaware that Doctors and Nurses are not either trained epidemiologists or trained researchers. You persist in argumentum ad populem, and now couple it with argumentem ad verecundium.
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Here's what science knows:
1. The proposed vaccine is vaccina, a live virus and close relative of the cowpox virus Jenner used to prevent his milking maids from developing smallpox. Most of today's vaccinations use dead or inactivated viruses, making them less apt to cause serious side effects. And because the proposed smallpox vaccination uses a live virus, people who get it can actually infect others with it. This weighed heavily in the decision of heath care workers to opt out of the program.
2. This live virus vaccine is the most dangerous vaccine still in use. According to the CDC it kills up to 52 people per
million.
In the absence of a truly credible smallpox threat, this is simply not worth it. See below how a credible threat can be dealt with and how vaccination then would be worth the risk.
3. If there was a terrorist "smallpox" attack .... would it be as deadly as it was 50+ years ago? No.
In pre-antibiotic times, smallpox killed up to 30% of those infected.
Today mortality would be lower since most smallpox deaths occurred as a result of secondary bacterial infections which erupted on the pox sores causing overwhelming sepsis.
Antibiotics easily treat these infections. And today even we have anti-viral agents (e.g. cidofovir) which predictably would be effective against the disease itself although they have never been tried as such agents were developed after smallpox became, for all intents and purposes,extinct.
4. Also, it is well established you can be vaccinated within four days of exposure and prevent becoming infected.
So the risks of pre-emptive mass vaccination presents an unacceptable and unnecessary risk of exposure to side effects, yes, a small % of deaths, and the transmission of the disease to the immuno-compromised, especially patients who are going to fare far worse than the immuno-competent recipients of the vaccine.
5. The last time smallpox hit New York was in 1947. A businessman from Mexico came down with the disease, taking 12 other people down with him. Two died.
The city prevented an epidemic by vaccinating 6 million people in one month. Side effects from the vaccine were identified as having killed six people, an acceptable risk given the threat. Others may have died but they were not identified so we can't point to them. But if the CDC's number (52 per million)is right, then 300 people died from the vaccine. We just don't know. But remember the city managed to innoculate 6 million after the "outbreak" occurred, a truly credible threat. Only those two early cases died of smallpox.
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52 deaths in a million vaccines? Really, Steve! The CDC actually says this:
"Based on past experience, it is estimated that 1 or 2 people in 1 million who receive the vaccine may die as a result. "
CDC Smallpox Vaccine Overview
Your New York outbreak example is similarly flawed. First, of course, you use the specious 52 figure to figure deaths when, in fact, the vaccination deaths were recorded. Now why on earth did you do that? How on earth do you have the other figures and somehow have to fudge this one with specious data when all the figures are available? Beats me.
There were three severe complications in toto, and one death. Beats me where you got the 52 figure from and why you felt you needed to estimate 300 deaths from it when there was, in fact, one.
1947
It also beats me why you think this example of ring vaccination has any bearing on an attack situation! The epidemiology is totally different. In 1947, we had a single vector arrive in NYC. A man. Public health officials wisely chose to ring vaccinate the entire city to both protect the city's population and to prevent spread to outside the city. In a terrorist attack, the vector could easily be a massive, targeted release. Maybe a warhead. Such attacks would easily spread the virus far and wide. Now we have multiple vectors. We have the original viral load, spread however far and wide, and we have the hundreds or thousands or hundreds of thousands of infected people. Not a single vector anymore.
If the release is not a warhead, it may go undetected for the length of time it takes to incubate. In NYC, E.L. arrived on 1 March 1947. The next infection did not present until 10 March 1947. Now imagine an undetected release in the tri-state area. Commuters travelling to Bergen County, Westchester County, Fairfield County, Washington, Philly and Boston, in and out of NYC for almost ten days before we know the attack happened.
Ring vaccination at that point? No, the strategy recommended was and is prior ring vaccination of the health care workers, to break the vectors. The grossly uninformed decision of healthcare workers puts us all at risk. The equally uninformed decisions of some military personnel puts them and others at risk as well.
Rand analysis of healthcare worker vaccination strategy
DeeTee:
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
In the absence of a truly credible smallpox threat, this is simply not worth it. See below how a credible threat can be dealt with and how vaccination then would be worth the risk.
3. If there was a terrorist "smallpox" attack .... would it be as deadly as it was 50+ years ago? No.
In pre-antibiotic times, smallpox killed up to 30% of those infected.
Today mortality would be lower since most smallpox deaths occurred as a result of secondary bacterial infections which erupted on the pox sores causing overwhelming sepsis.
Antibiotics easily treat these infections. And today even we have anti-viral agents (e.g. cidofovir) which predictably would be effective against the disease itself although they have never been tried as such agents were developed after smallpox became, for all intents and purposes,extinct .
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Yes mortality might well be lower, but it is simplistic to say this is because of antibiotics and cidofovir. In the UK, cidofovir stocks are minimal and would be of negligible value in an epidemic scenario (if it even works). Remember cidofovir also costs about $2000 per single infusion. Antibiotics will reduce secondary infection, but it is overwhelming viremia and pneumonic involvement which cause most of the primary SPox mortality.
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
4. Also, it is well established you can be vaccinated within four days of exposure and prevent becoming infected.
So the risks of pre-emptive mass vaccination presents an unacceptable and unnecessary risk of exposure to side effects, yes, a small % of deaths, and the transmission of the disease to the immuno-compromised, especially patients who are going to fare far worse than the immuno-competent recipients of the vaccine.
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Yes I agree to an extent, but you are talking about a scenario where there is negligible risk of anyone catching SPox in the first place. Just wait til you have had an outbreak following a bioterrorism attack with a credible threat of more to follow, and the entire population, never mind your precious health care workers will be clamouring for mass vaccination
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
5. The last time smallpox hit New York was in 1947. A businessman from Mexico came down with the disease, taking 12 other people down with him. Two died.
The city prevented an epidemic by vaccinating 6 million people in one month. Side effects from the vaccine were identified as having killed six people, an acceptable risk given the threat. Others may have died but they were not identified so we can't point to them. But if the CDC's number (52 per million)is right, then 300 people died from the vaccine. We just don't know. But remember the city managed to innoculate 6 million after the "outbreak" occurred, a truly credible threat. Only those two early cases died of smallpox.
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Why don't you look at current figures from the US on vaccinees?
As of March 28, 2003, the DoD had vaccinated 350,000 operational forces and military health-care workers against smallpox.
There have been 29 cases of inadvertent auto-inoculation, none of which were severe.
There have also been 25 cases of generalized vaccinia, most of which were treated as outpatients.
There have been two instances in which VIG was prescribed, both of which involved patients with generalized vaccinia.
There have been 14 cases of myocarditis and/or pericarditis among the 350,000 smallpox vaccinees, with symptoms ranging from mild to severe (all have since recovered).
No cases of eczema vaccinatum or progressive vaccinia have been reported, and there have been no deaths associated with smallpox vaccination.
Rather a different light is cast on your predictions using these data.
Btox:
[Btox has already found and posted this, earlier in this thread. -BH]
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Originally posted by BillHoyt
It also beats me why you think this example of ring vaccination has any bearing on an attack situation! The epidemiology is totally different. In 1947, we had a single vector arrive in NYC. A man. Public health officials wisely chose to ring vaccinate the entire city to both protect the city's population and to prevent spread to outside the city. In a terrorist attack, the vector could easily be a massive, targeted release. Maybe a warhead. Such attacks would easily spread the virus far and wide. Now we have multiple vectors. We have the original viral load, spread however far and wide, and we have the hundreds or thousands or hundreds of thousands of infected people. Not a single vector anymore.
If the release is not a warhead, it may go undetected for the length of time it takes to incubate. In NYC, E.L. arrived on 1 March 1947. The next infection did not present until 10 March 1947. Now imagine an undetected release in the tri-state area. Commuters travelling to Bergen County, Westchester County, Fairfield County, Washington, Philly and Boston, in and out of NYC for almost ten days before we know the attack happened.
Ring vaccination at that point? No, the strategy recommended was and is prior ring vaccination of the health care workers, to break the vectors. The grossly uninformed decision of healthcare workers puts us all at risk. The equally uninformed decisions of some military personnel puts them and others at risk as well.
Rand analysis of healthcare worker vaccination strategy
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I read something a year or so ago (cannot find a source) that the military and CDC has conducted computer simulations of what would happen in the U.S. in such an event with no prior vaccinations of health care workers. The results were a global pandemic and catastrophic loss of life.
[Btox has already found and posted this, earlier in this thread. -BH]
SteveGrenard:
BoTox: I read something a year or so ago (cannot find a source) that the military and CDC has conducted computer simulations of what would happen in the U.S. in such an event with no prior vaccinations of health care workers. The results were a global pandemic and catastrophic loss of life.
I hate to act like Larsen here but reference please. Thank you.
Again, Hoyt ignores the facts which weighed in on the fact that more than 3/4s of all U.S. HCWs declined the vaccinia vaccination
Once again a summary:
1. You can be vaccinated post exposure --- which means that if there really was a problem you can be protected against it after it has occurred. This barn door can be closed after the horse is stolen.
2. NYC in 1947 vaccinated 80% of its population or 6.4 million people in about 4 weeks AFTER patient zero showed up on a bus from Mexico and infected twelve people. Our HC infrastructure has very much improved since 1947, we are on high alert, we have the vaccine at the ready so today we can do much better than 56 years ago if we had to. And we have better instruments to administer it.
3.Hoyt calls vaccinating 6.4 million people ring vaccination. That's a mighty big ring. Certainly they vaccinated the ring around patient zero and spread out from there. At some point the ring dissapeared but long before they vaccinated nearly six and a half million people.
4.Hoyt overlooks the fact that death due to smallpox is the result of secondary infection or sepsis; such infections, thanks to the numerous antibiotics we have now, arent the risk they were pre-1949 when smallpox last was seen anywhere in the U.S. In the late 40s we had sulfa and one or two kinds of penicillin and these were just becoming available since the military was not scoffing it all up as they did during WW II. Civilian populations had virtually no sulfa drugs or pencillin during the war.
4. And I forgot to mention that smallpox is extinct and basically inaccessible to terrorists. There are two small secure stocks,
(U.S. and Russia) neither of which at initial deployment (even with a warhead detonated over Times Square) should they be pilfered,could infect millions of people. Infection spread would occur through contact between infected and non-infected people. Quarantine for exposed people and post exposure vaccinations would still be viable alternatives to pre-emptive mass vaccinations.
Hoyt is exhibiting the same sort of half-baked, knee-jerk, unstudied hysterical paranoia that resulted in the call for pre-emptive mass vaccinations in the absence of a threat and a failure to recognize other means by which such an attack could be easily thwarted should it actually occur.
He continues to employ and insist on philosophical notions to negate essential medical/scientific facts. He has jumped on the same bandwagon as the paranoid hysterics who didn't stop to consider the above. He spent considerable effort on my allegedly faulty recall of 52 deaths per million though I qualified the statement, saying it wasn't certain the CDC was right on this and that in the 1947 experience we have no way of knowing if 6 or 300 died from the emergency mass vaccination experience. This was bordering on his usual penchant for misquoting, fabricating or just plain exaggerating and confabulating what others say. He is not an idiot but thinks he can get away with acting like one. I read this CDC paper awhile ago. It was up to 52 life threatening adverse events per million. The CDC cannot say with certainty despite its torturing of statistics (to try and exonerate vaccinia) whether or not dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and pericarditis, both life threatening conditions, occur as a result of infection with vaccinia, WHICH IS a certain consequence of being vaccinated by this product.
Last edited by SteveGrenard on 12-31-2003 at 10:09 AM
Btox:
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
I hate to act like Larsen here but reference please. Thank you.
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Steve, I'll try to find the source. And a request - can you start another thread on this topic? You are hijacking our Rouser Roast thread!
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
He continues to employ and insist on philosophical notions to negate essential medical/scientific facts. He has jumped on the same bandwagon as the paranoid hysterics who didn't stop to consider the above. He spent considerable effort on my allegedly faulty recall of 52 deaths per million though I qualified the statement, saying it wasn't certain the CDC was right on this and that in the 1947 experience we have no way of knowing if 6 or 300 died from the emergency mass vaccination experience. This was bordering on his usual penchant for misquoting, fabricating or just plain exaggerating and confabulating what others say. He is not an idiot but thinks he can get away with acting like one. I read this CDC paper awhile ago. It was up to 52 life threatening adverse events per million. The CDC cannot say with certainty despite its torturing of statistics (to try and exonerate vaccinia) whether or not dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and pericarditis, both life threatening conditions, occur as a result of infection with vaccinia, WHICH IS a certain consequence of being vaccinated by this product.
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You did initially say 52 million deaths per million vaccinations. CDC clearly states "Based on past experience, it is estimated that between 1 and 2 people out of every 1 million people vaccinated will die as a result of life-threatening reactions to the vaccine."
Source: cdc smallpox vaccine safety
And this also jives with the DOD experience, where they've vaccinated more than 500,000 and have associated 1 death to the vaccine:
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In the 12 months between 13 Dec 02 and 12 Dec 03, the DoD administered 526,677 smallpox vaccinations. Most adverse events occurred at rates below historical rates. One case of encephalitis and 69 cases of acute myo-pericarditis developed after vaccination. Among 22,967 worker-months of clinical contact, there were no cases of transmission of vaccinia from worker to patient. Twenty-eight cases of contact transfer of vaccinia virus have occurred, principally to spouses and adult intimate contacts. Sixty-two cases of autoinoculation occurred. Thirty-five cases of generalized vaccinia were treated, primarily as outpatients. No cases of eczema vaccinatum or progressive vaccinia occurred, and the total number of treatments with vaccinia immune globulin (VIG) remains at two. Five deaths due to disease after vaccination have been reviewed: one following an acute lupus-like illness may have been caused by vaccination, after review by two independent panels of civilian physicians. Additional information on this case appears at www.vaccines.mil/panelreport.asp. The other four deaths involved one each of the following diagnoses: myocardial infarction, atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease, pulmonary embolism, and benzodiazepine overdose. These deaths were judged unrelated to vaccination, based on individual factors such as preexisting disease, incidence among unvaccinated people, and lack of physical evidence to implicate a vaccine.
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Source: cdc dod smallpox vaccine
DeeTee:
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Originally posted by SteveGrenard
4.Hoyt overlooks the fact that death due to smallpox is the result of secondary infection or sepsis; such infections, thanks to the numerous antibiotics we have now, arent the risk they were pre-1949 when smallpox last was seen anywhere in the U.S. In the late 40s we had sulfa and one or two kinds of penicillin and these were just becoming available since the military was not scoffing it all up as they did during WW II. Civilian populations had virtually no sulfa drugs or pencillin during the war.
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You haven't seen my post about this above. Please read it.
You overlook the fact that usually death is not due to secondary sepsis.
As regards fatalities from smallpox, I am surprised you think none of the estimated 50 million cases of smallpox per year in the 1950s were fatal (they had your wonder antibiotics by then, remember?).
So what did the last death from smallpox result from? This was in one of 2 laboratory technicians in the UK infected in 1978 (who died despite ITU facilities, antibiotics, full supportive care etc).
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4. And I forgot to mention that smallpox is extinct and basically inaccessible to terrorists. There are two small secure stocks,
(U.S. and Russia) neither of which at initial deployment (even with a warhead detonated over Times Square) should they be pilfered,could infect millions of people. Infection spread would occur through contact between infected and non-infected people. Quarantine for exposed people and post exposure vaccinations would still be viable alternatives to pre-emptive mass vaccinations.
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Ah.................."smallpox is extinct"!
Care to look up the definition? There are no current cases, sure, but you admit the virus exists.
You also admit there are 2 secure stocks, but what about the Koltsovo virus stock, the security of which may have been breached with the collapse of the soviet union?
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He spent considerable effort on my allegedly faulty recall of 52 deaths per million though I qualified the statement, saying it wasn't certain the CDC was right on this and that in the 1947 experience we have no way of knowing if 6 or 300 died from the emergency mass vaccination experience. This was bordering on his usual penchant for misquoting, fabricating or just plain exaggerating and confabulating what others say. He is not an idiot but thinks he can get away with acting like one. I read this CDC paper awhile ago. It was up to 52 life threatening adverse events per million. The CDC cannot say with certainty despite its torturing of statistics (to try and exonerate vaccinia) whether or not dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and pericarditis, both life threatening conditions, occur as a result of infection with vaccinia, WHICH IS a certain consequence of being vaccinated by this product.
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So your recall was faulty, not just allegedly faulty?
Care to comment on the reported side effects on the defence force vaccinees, which BTox has nicely updated?
Last edited by Deetee on 12-31-2003 at 10:47 AM
SteveGrenard:
BoTox, in your quoting, did you just happen to stop short of the CDC statement about up to 52 life threatening events per million or did you notice it? Now when these life threatening events are pericarditis and especially DCM, which is a chronic long term (LT) problem and people die from it years later, it somehow doesn't make it into the stats on this disease, does it? Even pericarditis which is an acute event could have LT sequelae. Hence my waffling and qualifying of that number. If you did happen to notice the CDC statement about up to 52 life threatening events per million, was it a tad disingenous of you not to include that in your reposting of stats favoring Hoyt's inane argument?
He has still failed to address the rationale which went into the decision of the majority of physicians and other HCWs to not take vaccinia at this time. He thinks it was a popularity thing ... er, believe me it was not the popular thing to do. Based on the reasons cited previously it was the rationale thing to do.
Thank you in advance if you find this doomsday study you mentioned. Perhaps you can start a new thread with that and we can move the conversation at that point. If I find the study first I will do the same.
SteveGrenard:
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Originally posted by BillHoyt
The smallpox thread is ready so that we no longer intrude on the rouser discussion here.
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Actually I see the posts have been moved. However, rather than a straightforward title, I see Professor Hoyt's biases have crept into the title of the thread. Ergo I have made my last post here. I object to Hoyt's asseettion that more than 75% of the physicians and health care workers in the U.S. are quacks. He should take his giant proctoscope and shove it you know where
hal bidlack
Unregistered
H
<table cellspacing=1 cellpadding=4 bgcolor=#cc6666 border=0><tr><td bgcolor=#cc6666><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=#ffffff size=1>Posted by hal:</font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=white><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=black size=2>This post has been reported, by the author, in response to a complaint that the title reflected bias. The author has requested I change the title. At this time I decline, as I don't feel I have all the information, and also because I feel disinclined to such changes in general.
hal
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hal
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Hal,hal bidlack said:<table cellspacing=1 cellpadding=4 bgcolor=#cc6666 border=0><tr><td bgcolor=#cc6666><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=#ffffff size=1>Posted by hal:</font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=white><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=black size=2>This post has been reported, by the author, in response to a complaint that the title reflected bias. The author has requested I change the title. At this time I decline, as I don't feel I have all the information, and also because I feel disinclined to such changes in general.
hal
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Here is the complaint.