There's probably already a thread somewhere in the forum for making serious predictions, but the only prediction threads I saw as we approached the new year seemed to be aimed more for the making of silly ones.
This thread is intended as a place where people can post their predictions for the coming year(s), and where they and others can then check back a year or so later to see how they did. I think it would be fun to have an ongoing thread of this nature.
(If such a thread already exists please let me know. I'll put these predictions in it and let this thread die or be deleted.)
Here are my initial 4 predictions, one for each of the upcoming 4 years.
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# 4. In 2007, there will be an assassination attempt on President Dean.
I suspect some of you are thinking: "Bah! Typical "psychic" scam! Predicting an assassination attempt on the president is like predicting there'll be an earthquake somewhere in the world. There are always going to be reports of assassination attempts (or plots) that can be claimed as fulfillment of such a prediction. Or, if no major attempt is reported, the predictor can claim the plot was foiled (because of the prediction!) and the story kept quiet."
So I'll agree in advance that this prediction only counts as a hit if the attempt is serious enough that it is the lead story on the evening news and a front-page headline in all major US newspapers. That should make it easy to check, with no judgment calls needed.
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# 3. 2006: As the details of what the Bush administration promised to Khadaffi in exchange for Libya's December 2003 weapons concessions continue to emerge, and amid growing calls for a full investigation, leading Republicans will dismiss the whole thing as "election year politics".
Okay. Again I suspect certain skeptical minds are suspicious I'm trying to get away with something, so let me point out this prediction is more specific than you may think.
Yes, there are always going to be calls for investigations in Washington; and yes, the accused party's supporters are always going to try to brush off these calls. But please note that I specified one particular excuse that the Republicans will use, out of all the many possibilities.
This prediction only counts as a hit if the main Republican response is "election year politics". If, instead, the main Republican response is to suggest that the manner in which the information was discovered was possibly illegal, or to blame the whole affair on Clinton, then the prediction is a miss.
Still not good enough? Okay, here's an extension of the prediction. When ex-president George W. Bush is approached by the media for comment, his oft-quoted reply will be: "Who cares? What are they going to do, impeach me?"
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2. In 2005, Republicans will stall or block a record number of the new president's judicial appointments.
Yes, I know this one is a long shot, especially after the big to-do this past year over Democrats blocking some of Bush's choices. But after making the 2 previous easy predictions I thought I should go a little further out on the limb for the last ones.
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Okay, here's the final prediction, and since it's for the coming year this should give a nice early indication of how well I'm doing with this set of predictions. Ready?
# 1. In 2004, comics retailers will give away hundreds of thousands of free comic books in an attempt to attract new customers into their stores.
... Hey, it could happen ...
This thread is intended as a place where people can post their predictions for the coming year(s), and where they and others can then check back a year or so later to see how they did. I think it would be fun to have an ongoing thread of this nature.
(If such a thread already exists please let me know. I'll put these predictions in it and let this thread die or be deleted.)
Here are my initial 4 predictions, one for each of the upcoming 4 years.
--------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
# 4. In 2007, there will be an assassination attempt on President Dean.
I suspect some of you are thinking: "Bah! Typical "psychic" scam! Predicting an assassination attempt on the president is like predicting there'll be an earthquake somewhere in the world. There are always going to be reports of assassination attempts (or plots) that can be claimed as fulfillment of such a prediction. Or, if no major attempt is reported, the predictor can claim the plot was foiled (because of the prediction!) and the story kept quiet."
So I'll agree in advance that this prediction only counts as a hit if the attempt is serious enough that it is the lead story on the evening news and a front-page headline in all major US newspapers. That should make it easy to check, with no judgment calls needed.
--------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
# 3. 2006: As the details of what the Bush administration promised to Khadaffi in exchange for Libya's December 2003 weapons concessions continue to emerge, and amid growing calls for a full investigation, leading Republicans will dismiss the whole thing as "election year politics".
Okay. Again I suspect certain skeptical minds are suspicious I'm trying to get away with something, so let me point out this prediction is more specific than you may think.
Yes, there are always going to be calls for investigations in Washington; and yes, the accused party's supporters are always going to try to brush off these calls. But please note that I specified one particular excuse that the Republicans will use, out of all the many possibilities.
This prediction only counts as a hit if the main Republican response is "election year politics". If, instead, the main Republican response is to suggest that the manner in which the information was discovered was possibly illegal, or to blame the whole affair on Clinton, then the prediction is a miss.
Still not good enough? Okay, here's an extension of the prediction. When ex-president George W. Bush is approached by the media for comment, his oft-quoted reply will be: "Who cares? What are they going to do, impeach me?"
--------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
2. In 2005, Republicans will stall or block a record number of the new president's judicial appointments.
Yes, I know this one is a long shot, especially after the big to-do this past year over Democrats blocking some of Bush's choices. But after making the 2 previous easy predictions I thought I should go a little further out on the limb for the last ones.
--------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
Okay, here's the final prediction, and since it's for the coming year this should give a nice early indication of how well I'm doing with this set of predictions. Ready?
# 1. In 2004, comics retailers will give away hundreds of thousands of free comic books in an attempt to attract new customers into their stores.
... Hey, it could happen ...
